延迟退休会提高社会福利水平吗?

文章基于延迟退休可能带来就业挤出和闲暇损失的现实背景,在动态一般均衡世代交叠模型框架下通过引入异质性消费者并根据中国经济校准主要参数,在控制延迟退休对中国劳动力市场冲击影响的基础上,模拟分析了延迟退休政策对企业职工福利水平的长期影响。研究分析表明：(1)无论是采用保持现有的缴费率不变的政策方式还是保持养老金待遇不变的政策方式,延迟退休均能提高城镇企业职工的社会福利水平———第一种政策会增加社会福利3.66%,第二种政策会增加社会福利1.1%;在保持养老保险缴费率不变的情况下,从长期看,延迟退休5年会使社会福利最大化。(2)最优的退休年龄与劳动力市场状态息息相关,如果当前就业形势严峻,最优退休年龄需要相应降低。     

人口预期寿命与退休年龄

人口寿命的不断延长给中国养老事业带来越来越大的压力.文章在两期交叠世代模型的基础上引入退休,在市场完全竞争、充分就业和政府能够控制退休年龄的假设前提下,在个人、企业和政府的行为以及资本市场均衡的层面构建了一般均衡的模型框架,从社会计划者的角度发现福利最大化下的人口预期寿命变化和退休年龄是正相关的,并呈现出负反比例的函数形式.文章还基于参数估计和赋值模拟的方法,求解出了人口预期寿命与退休年龄的调整算法,并以此给出了两者间的调整对照表.根据计算的结果和预期的寿命,建议2030年前逐步将退休年龄延长至65岁.最后通过检验发现,如果不存在人口预期寿命和退休年龄之间的调整机制,在保持养老金收支平衡的前提下,预期寿命的延长将减少养老金的发放,并可能带来社会福利的损失.因此,在中国人口预期寿命不断延长的背景下,建议政府考虑建立人口预期寿命和退休年龄的调整机制.     

The effect of a wife’s retirement on her husband’s mental health

This article examines the effect of wives’ retirement on their husband’s mental health in Australia. By exploiting the exogenous variations in women’s retirement induced by the age pension qualifying ages, we find that spousal retirement status has a positive impact on the mental health of older men. This beneficial impact is found to strengthen with wives’ time spent in retirement. We show that wife’s retirement affects the constituents of her husband’s mental well-being in different ways. We also have identified four channels for the positive linkage between older women’s retirement and the mental health of their spouse.     

社会养老保险与退休年龄选择*——基于CFPS2010的微观经验证据

随着我国预期寿命的增加与社会养老保险金负担的上升,延迟退休已经成为必然选择。而作为重要的家庭决策,退休行为如何受到养老保险的影响值得研究。本文采用2010年中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS）,通过Probit模型和工具变量法实证分析了养老保险对中老年劳动者实际退休年龄选择的影响。结果表明,在控制了各类家庭异质性因素之后,养老保险对劳动者的提前退休具有显著的正向激励,同时显著降低了延迟退休概率。本文以代际居住情况衡量家庭养老行为,发现对于家庭养老影响较强的样本而言,养老保险的退休激励作用并不明显;反之,如果劳动者选择不与子女共同居住,养老保险就可能显著地影响其实际退休行为。     

Pensions reforms,workforce ageing and firm-provided welfare

This paper investigates the impact of an exogenous increase in the legal retirement age on the firms’ propensity to provide welfare services voluntarily to their employees. To this purpose we exploit a unique information derived from the Rilevazione su Imprese e Lavoro (RIL), a survey conducted in 2015 on a large and representative sample of Italian firms. Applying different regression models we show that firms which were forced to give up previously planned hirings because of the Law 201/2011 (the so-called ‘Fornero pension reform’), increased the probability of providing welfare services at workplace. By referring to the sociological, human resource management and economic literature we then argue that a sudden increase in the legal retirement age may motivate the employers to establish welfare schemes as a way to cope with an ageing workforce. Our findings also hold when propensity score matching methods are used in order to control for sample selection issues.     

Endogenous retirement and public pension system reform in Spain

Population aging has spurred developed countries around the world to reform their PAYG pension systems. In particular, delaying legal retirement ages and reducing the generosity of pension benefits have been widely implemented changes. This paper assesses the potential success of these policies in the case of the Spanish economy, and compares them with the results obtained by the (rather modest) reforms already implemented in 1997 and 2001. This evaluation is accomplished in a heterogeneous-agent dynamic general equilibrium model where individuals can adjust their retirement ages in response to changes to the pension rules. We check the ability of the model to reproduce the basic stylized facts of retirement behavior (particularly the pattern of early retirement induced by minimum pensions). The model is then used to explore the impact of pension reforms. We find that already implemented changes actually increase the implicit liabilities of the system. In contrast, delaying the legal retirement age and extending the averaging period in the pension formula to cover most of the individual's life-cycle can reduce the implicit liabilities substantially. These findings reveal the failure of the Spanish political system to distribute the costs of population aging more evenly across the generations.     

Pension expectations,reforms and macroeconomic downturn in Italy. What can microdata tell us?

We use different years of the Bank of Italy’s Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) to explore how Italian workers’ expectations regarding their future level of pension benefits and retirement age changed from 2000 to 2014. Comparing expected and statutory values for future pension benefits and retirement ages, we find that knowledge of the pension system and its rules are not evenly distributed among workers. Some sections of the population, in particular, younger workers, women and the self-employed, are less precise in estimating their future pension benefits. As for retirement age, a large share of the working population still has not completely assimilated the implications of the linkage with the evolution of lifetime expectations at 65. Expectations in the final part of the period observed are dominated by increasing pessimism, which may be related to the macroeconomic crisis of the Italian economy and to the approval of a severe pension reform in 2011. Checking whether a household’s total wealth is consistent with lifetime consumption, we find that households where the head overestimates the future value of the pension benefit accumulate fewer resources than the remaining part of the population.     

生育政策调整、退休年龄延迟与城镇职工基本养老保险最优缴费率

文章基于“十三五”规划建议提出适当降低社会保险费率的现实背景,从社会福利最大化视角,运用一般均衡模型对五种生育情景下不同退休年龄的城镇职工基本养老保险最优社会统筹缴费率进行测算,并分析降低社会统筹缴费率的经济效应。研究表明：（1）最优社会统筹缴费率随退休年龄的延长而下降,随人口增长率的上升而提高。0％－100％符合全面二孩政策规定的妇女生育二孩,使退休年龄为60岁时的最优社会统筹缴费率降到191．8％－196．3％,使退休年龄为65岁时的最优缴费率降到107．7％－116．4％。（2）除了受生育政策和退休年龄影响外,最优社会统筹缴费率对物质资本产出弹性、个人主观效用贴现因子和社会贴现因子的敏感性也较强。（3）降低社会统筹缴费率具有积极的经济效应,不仅能促进经济增长和增进社会福利,而且有助于完善我国多层次养老保险体系。因此,文章为降低城镇职工基本养老保险社会统筹缴费率的改革提供了依据。     

英国应对人口老龄化的经验及对中国的启示

英国是世界上第一个工业化国家，也是人口老龄化国家。英国在应对人口老龄化方面积累了较为丰富的经验，采取了推迟退休、倡导积极老龄化、利用国际移民、推行以促进就业为导向的社会政策和大力开发人力资源等措施，较为成功地应对了老龄化时代的社会经济问题。但英国的养老金面临较大的财政风险，国际移民面临本土适应问题。中国可以参考英国分权管理、责任下放的政府治理体制，建立有梯度的养老金制度，建立广覆盖、低费用、以社区卫生服务为主的全民基本医疗保障制度。     

Delaying retirement in Spain

We study the reform of the Spanish public pension system in a multiperiod, general equilibrium, overlapping generations model economy populated by heterogeneous households. Our households differ in their place of birth, in their age, in their education and, endogenously, in their employment status, in their wealth, and in their pension entitlements. They receive a stochastic endowment of efficiency labor units each period. And they face a disability risk and a survival risk. They understand the link between the payroll taxes that they pay and the public pensions that they receive. And they decide how much to consume and to work, and when to retire from the labor force. We calibrate this economy to Spanish data, and we use it to study the consequences of delaying three years the statutory retirement ages in 2010. We find this reform is sufficient to solve the sustainability problems that plague the current Spanish public pension system. Our model economy predicts that under the current rules, the pension system fund will run out in 2028 and in the reformed economy it will last until 2050. We also find that it is moderately expansionary, and that it improves social welfare from the year 2015 onwards. We conclude that policymakers should seriously consider delaying the statutory retirement ages in Spain sometime in the near future.     

Retirement Policies and the Life Cycle: Current Trends and Future Prospects

During the 20th century, pensions in developed countries were generally payable from a statutory retirement age which provided a norm for retirement behaviour and a threshold dividing older from younger age groups. Governments, by setting fixed starting dates for work and retirement, created a standardised life cycle with clearly delineated and uniform boundaries between education, work and retirement stages. Over the last 30 years or so, retirement behaviour has diverged from official norms and moved towards earlier retirement, although pressures for later retirement are now increasing as concerns over pension finance provoke calls for older workers to remain economically active. Weaker retirement norms have prompted speculation that working practices may be evolving from a Fordist life cycle with fixed stages to post-Fordist life courses with fluid and variable personal experiences. This paper assesses current trends, asking whether they do indicate major changes in the life cycle, and considers the flexibility of retirement, paying particular attention to the influence of government and employers. Several ways in which retirement could develop are identified, but few of them remove the constraints on retirees: truly flexible retirement will not occur spontaneously and will require explicit policies to safeguard retirement choices.     

意大利应对老龄化问题的对策及其启示

在全球老龄化的趋势下，意大利也面临着老龄化严重问题，其老龄化率居欧洲各国之首。意大利在应对老龄化方面采取了一些积极的具体做法，积累了经验，如，改革养老金制度，出台灵活的就业市场政策以及提供老年职业培训等。目前，我国也正面临着老龄化问题的严峻挑战，意大利的做法和经验可为我国决策者提供参考。     

中国代际核算体系的建立和对养老保险制度改革的研究

代际核算方法是 2 0世纪 90年代出现的分析财政问题和代际平衡问题的新方法。本文建立了中国的第一套代际核算体系 ,并利用代际核算体系分析了中国的养老保险体系。考虑到中国的实际情况 ,本文对传统的代际核算体系进行了以下扩展 :首先 ,传统的代际核算体系将人口按照年龄和性别分类 ,而我国无论是税收体系还是养老保险体系 ,城乡差别都比较大 ,因此我们将人口按照年龄、性别和城乡三个维度分开 ;第二 ,由于我国的社会保障体系不是全民覆盖 ,因此我们在考虑社会保障体系的缴费和支付时 ,需要考虑覆盖面的变化。核算结果表明我国城乡不平衡很严重 ,城镇人口到 55岁 (其中女性到 50岁 )时代际帐户就为负值 ,而农村人口要到 85岁 (其中女性到 90岁 )代际帐户才为负值。我国的代际不平衡也较为严重 ,按照不同的生产率增长率和贴现率的假设 ,我国未来代的代际帐户值比 2 0 0 2年新出生一代高 66%到 1 0 2 %。而如果我们采用延长退休年龄的政策 ,代际不平衡情况可以得到很大改善 ,未来代的代际帐户值比 2 0 0 2年新生代高 43 %到 81 %。而如果不对机关事业单位的养老保险制度进行改革 ,代际不平衡状况将更加严重 ,未来代的代际帐户值比现存各代高出 78%到 1 1 5%。     

Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany

We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that replicates the age-earnings profiles of these two household types. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 0.7% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.     

CHANGING PENSION POLICY AND THE AGING OF AMERICA

The recently enacted Tax Reform Act of 1986 contains a number of pension policy provisions including faster vesting for private-sector, single-employer pension plans and imposing tax penalties on preretirement pension plan distributions that are not saved until retirement age. Since pensions are a long-term commitment, the impact of pension policy changes may not be fully realized for a number of years. For that reason, the effects of the Tax Reform Act's pension provisions are investigated using both short-run and long-run simulation models. Faster vesting would immediately entitle an additional 1.9 million pension plan participants to pension benefits at retirement. This increase would not, however, be translated directly into significant gains in pension recipiency for workers currently in their 50s. Nevertheless, by the time the baby boom generation retires, faster vesting and lump-sum penalties could provide more retirees with pensions and increase the standard of living of pension recipients.     

Retirement and Grandchild Care in Urban China

ABSTRACT

This study estimates the causal effect of retirement on grandchild care in urban China. It utilizes the exogenous variations in retirement status caused by China’s mandatory retirement-age policy. Drawing on the data of individuals close to retirement age from the 2011 and 2013 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), the analysis shows a statistically significant increase of 29 percentage points in the provision of grandchild care after the transition to retirement for women and a 21 percentage-point increase for men. Moreover, the study finds that grandchild care is demand driven for men and supply driven for women. It also finds that women with lower education levels have a lower probability of retirement after reaching eligible age but are more likely to provide grandchild care after retirement.     

Welfare and Macroeconomic Effects of the German Pension Acts of 1992 and 1999: A Dynamic CGE Study

The German Pension Act of 1992 raises the mandatory retirement age while the Act of 1999 adjusts pension benefits to demographic changes. To examine welfare and macroeconomic effects of these reform schemes, we have carried out a dynamic CGE study. The model used is an enlarged version of the Auerbach–Kotlikoff model with endogenous retirement decisions, unemployment, age-dependent rates of unemployment, health, and long-term care insurance. The simulation is performed in two stages: first, the effects of the population decline in Germany are computed ignoring the reforms and, second, the effects of the reform schemes are examined and compared with the benchmark case. The results suggest that the Act of 1992 implies welfare gains while suspending the Act of 1999 induces welfare losses.     

Heterogeneity effects on the management of retirement fund

This article studies the importance of plan members’ heterogeneity to the management of defined benefit (DB) pension fund. We propose a new multi-member model of DB pension fund that allows for heterogeneity in plan members’ retirement ages, salary growths and other characteristics. We first solve analytically for optimal management strategy and show that the sponsor’s supplementary contribution and the fund’s allocation in risky assets are determined by the cross-product between the fund’s expected retirement liabilities and some heterogeneity-adjusted discount factors. We then demonstrate that the presence of heterogeneity can have a significant influence on the optimal management strategy and that a management decision made while ignoring heterogeneity will be suboptimal. The knowledge of desirable and undesirable effects of heterogeneity that we uncover in this article also provides implications to the grouping of fund members. Introducing a presence of young member whose salary is positively correlated with the risky asset and avoid stacking members with negative correlations will all help the management.     

Pension profile preferences: the influence of trust and expected expenses

This paper studies the influence of people’s expectations about expenses during retirement and trust in pension funds on preferences for different pension arrangements. Although most workers prefer a flat-rate annuity, many workers want to deviate from it. The most popular option is a high/low, annuity-based profile, followed by a partial lump sum payment. Workers who expect declining expenses during retirement are more likely to opt for a high/low annuity-based pension and/or a lump sum payment at retirement. Furthermore, workers and pensioners who do not trust their pension fund are more likely to prefer a lump sum over annuity-based arrangements.     

Time inconsistency and delayed retirement decision: the French pension bonus

With the increase in life expectancy and demographic shocks, several public policies in the last decades aim to encourage individuals to postpone retirement. One of them, the pension bonus, gives an increased pension if individuals retire beyond their Full Retirement Age. Previous ex post analyses found that the responsiveness to this type of financial incentives, which encourage to postpone retirement, is heterogeneous among agents and that the global effect is rather limited. Deriving from previous research in Behavioural Economics, this article analyses the impact of time inconsistency in the decision to delay retirement to get the bonus. Using public national survey data, short-term and long-term impatience are measured with questions on retiring motivations. After controlling for the endogeneity of the bonus knowledge, econometric results show that time-inconsistent agents are less likely to retire with the bonus.