Bank switching of US small businesses: new methods and evidence

Despite being informationally opaque, small firms often switch from their primary financial institution to transactional lenders, with the relationship banking theory invoking the holdup problem as a culprit explanation. Using US evidence and an estimation strategy that overcomes traditional shortcomings in small business research, our study captures the determinants and, for the first time, the ex post effects of the switching decision. We find that switching is less likely when the primary financial institution is a nearby bank associated with quality services and connected to the firm via other business or social relationships. Small firms become more loyal as they grow in size and pursue nonmortgage credit. Outside the primary relationship, both loan approval and borrowing cost are adversely impacted, however loan maturities are longer. Moreover, the likelihood of pledging collateral remains unaffected, provided that the type of collateral is least sensitive to the borrower’s information environment. Jointly, our findings describe a trade-off inconsistent with the holdup problem, and an opportunity for banks to enhance customer loyalty by improving aspects of the relationship unrelated to the terms of credit.

     

The effect of a potential borrower's reporting reputation and financial condition on commercial loan officers' estimates of forecast bias and subsequent loan recommendations

This paper investigates whether a potential borrower's reporting reputation and financial condition affect commercial loan officers' loan judgments and recommendations after receiving an earnings forecast that predicts improved financial performance. The results suggest that the earnings forecast is perceived as more credible in the presence of (1) a reputation for objective reporting, and (2) strong financial condition. Also, a reputation for objective reporting allowed the borrower to more credibly convey the expected improvement in performance when financial condition was weak. However, while financial condition predictably affects loan recommendations (likelihood of granting the loan, interest rate), reporting reputation does not. While we find that commercial loan officers discount forecasts under similar circumstances as stock analysts, results suggest that the consequences of developing a reputation for aggressive reporting (e.g., aggressive selection of accounting methods and estimates within GAAP) may be greater in a stock valuation setting (prior research documents lower stock prices) than in a loan setting.     

The Informational Efficiency of the Equity Market As Compared to the Syndicated Bank Loan Market

The loan market is a hybrid between a public and a private market, comprised of financial institutions with access to private information about borrowing firms. We test whether this is reflected in informationally efficient price formation in the loan market vis-a-vis the equity markets, and reject this private information hypothesis. We also reject a liquidity hypothesis which suggests that equity markets always lead loan markets, despite bank lenders' access to private information, because of greater liquidity in equity markets. We further test, and reject, an asymmetric price reaction hypothesis that states that loan returns are more sensitive to negative information whereas equity returns respond symmetrically to both positive and negative information. We find evidence most consistent with an integrated markets hypothesis that suggests that both the equity and syndicated bank loan markets are highly integrated such that information flows freely across markets. This is particularly true when the equity market makers are also loan syndicate members.      

A Multistage Model of Loans and the Role of Relationships

We develop a multistage model of the loan granting process to understand the contradictory findings of the existing literature on bank‐borrower relationships, credit availability, and loan rates. Upon estimating our model with the 1993, 1998, and 2003 versions of the Survey of Small Business Finances data set, we find that relationships matter in a borrower's decision whether to apply for a loan and in the loan approval/rejection decision by the financial institution. However, the effect of relationships on loan rates depends on the prevailing economic climate. While firms with preexisting relationships obtain credit at lower rates during periods of economic expansion, loan rates are not negatively correlated with preexisting relationships during periods of economic recession.     

Do Loan Loss Provisions Affect the Credit Fluctuations in China’s Banking System?

ABSTRACT

The global financial crisis of 2008 sparked new ideas on pro-cyclical transmission in the financial system. The accounting treatment method of loan loss provisions differs between the accounting standards that banks use and the supervisory rules of banks. This fundamental difference has attracted wide attention from academics and regulators. This article studies whether bank loan loss provisions affect credit fluctuation in China’s banking system. We divide loan loss provisions into discretionary and non-discretionary loan loss provisions. We find that non-discretionary loan loss provisions result in greater credit fluctuation, whereas discretionary loan loss provisions have no significant impact on credit fluctuation. Further evidence shows that the relation between non-discretionary loan loss provisions and credit fluctuations does not vary among different types of banks. Overall, our study shows that non-discretionary loan loss provisions can increase credit fluctuation and therefore strengthen banks’ pro-cyclical behavior.     

Does the use of tax haven subsidiaries by U.S. multinational corporations affect the cost of bank loans?

This study examines whether the use of tax haven subsidiaries by U.S. multinational corporations (MNCs) is associated with the cost of bank loans. We find that more intensive tax haven subsidiary use by MNCs is positively associated with the cost of bank loans. In cross-sectional analyses, we identify channels through which the positive association between tax haven intensity and bank loan costs is more pronounced, such as a weak information environment, poor corporate governance, high CEO pay-for-performance and corporation-related wealth, and low managerial ability. We also find that intensive tax haven use is positively (negatively) associated with non-price loan contract terms, such as collateralization and financial covenants (loan maturity and general covenants). Our main result holds when public bonds are substituted for bank loans. Finally, additional analysis shows that MNCs with high levels of tax haven intensity are more likely to rely on bank loan financing than on raising debt from the bond market. Overall, this study adds to an emerging body of literature on corporate taxation and debt policy.     

Corporate misreporting and bank loan contracting

This paper is the first to study the effect of financial restatement on bank loan contracting. Compared with loans initiated before restatement, loans initiated after restatement have significantly higher spreads, shorter maturities, higher likelihood of being secured, and more covenant restrictions. The increase in loan spread is significantly larger for fraudulent restating firms than other restating firms. We also find that after restatement, the number of lenders per loan declines and firms pay higher upfront and annual fees. These results are consistent with banks using tighter loan contract terms to overcome risk and information problems arising from financial restatements.     

Is there a relation between audit fee cuts during the global financial crisis and banks’ financial reporting quality?

As a result of the global financial crisis (GFC), several audit clients were able to negotiate lower audit fees for the years 2008 and 2009. However, the PCAOB has expressed concern that lower audit fees might lead to lower audit effort and lower audit quality and financial reporting quality. This study examines the relation between audit fee cuts and banks’ financial reporting quality. Specifically, we focus on earnings management via loan loss provisions (LLP), the relation between current period LLP and future loan charge-offs, i.e., LLP validity, and the timely recognition of loan losses. For banks audited by Big 4 auditors, we find that income-increasing abnormal LLP are decreasing in audit fee cuts and LLP validity is increasing in audit fee cuts. For banks audited by non-Big 4 auditors, LLP validity is higher for banks that received a fee cut of more than 25% relative to other banks audited by non-Big 4 auditors. We do not observe an association between timely loan loss recognition and cuts in audit fees except for banks audited by non-Big 4 auditors and exempt from internal control audits where a fee cut of more than 25% is associated with less timely loan loss recognition. Overall, the findings suggest that Big 4 auditors constrained earnings management via LLP in banks that received cuts in audit fees. Our findings have important implications for regulators, investors, and others.     

An Analysis of SBA Loan Defaults by Maturity Structure

The financial intermediation literature on small business lending focuses on the determinants and costs to credit access. There is, however, little research examining the repayment behavior of small firms that actually receive loans. In this paper, we address this shortcoming in the literature by examining the default behavior of a sample of Small Business Administration 7(a) guaranteed loans with three distinct maturity structures. We employ a discrete-time hazard approach and show that SBA defaults are time-dependent and that the factors impacting default behavior, as well as its timing, are maturity specific. Specifically, we show the importance of loan maturity, seasoning, economic conditions, and other firm-specific factors in predicting the likelihood of SBA loan defaults. JEL classification: G21     

框架效应与贷款决策:一项金融素养的实验研究

过度借贷是一个常见的非理性决策。近年来,网络借贷市场的激烈竞争降低了申请贷款门槛,导致金融素养较低的人群开始参与网络借贷,进一步加剧了过度借贷现象。本文采用实验室实验方法,给被试者提供本质上完全等价的贷款产品,同时外生地变化贷款成本形式(绝对数值形式的利息相比于百分数形式的利率、单期利率相比于多期复利),研究贷款成本的展示形式对贷款意愿是否存在影响。结果表明,相比于月利率,展示月利息使得被试者的贷款接受率显著上升21.3个百分点;相比于年化复利,展示月利率使得被试者的贷款接受率显著上升7.91个百分点。这两种框架效应可分别由金融素养的知识层面和思维层面所解释。本文对网络小额贷款场景下的过度借贷提出了一种新的解释——贷款成本的框架效应,并采用实验经济学方法对此提供了可靠的证据。本文研究结论提示,加强金融教育和制定相关法规双措并举,有助于人们做出更审慎的贷款决策。     

Offshore operations and bank loan contracting: Evidence from firms that set up subsidiaries in offshore financial centers

We examine the effects of a multinational firm's subsidiary operations in offshore financial centers (OFCs) on bank loan contracting terms. Using a propensity score matched cross-country sample of firms with and without OFC subsidiaries, we find that firms with OFC subsidiaries receive less favorable loan terms than firms without OFC subsidiaries. The results from a difference-in-differences analysis and an analysis of a firm's mutation from a non-OFC firm to an OFC firm support the causal effect of offshore operations on the unfavorable loan terms. Furthermore, focusing on firms with OFC subsidiaries, we find that the intensity of offshore operations affects loan terms unfavorably. We also find that the unfavorable effect is more pronounced for more opaque firms and for firms that are headquartered in countries or jurisdictions with weaker legal enforcement. Our findings indicate that banks view offshore operations of borrowers as a credit risk-increasing factor.     

Corporate Loan Securitization and the Standardization of Financial Covenants

We examine whether syndicated loans securitized through collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have more standardized financial covenants. We proxy for the standardization of covenants using the textual similarity of their contractual definitions. We find that securitized loans are associated with higher covenant standardization than nonsecuritized institutional loans. In addition, we show that CLOs with more diverse or frequently rebalanced portfolios are more likely to purchase loans with standardized covenants, potentially because standardization alleviates information processing costs related to loan monitoring and screening. We also document that covenant standardization is associated with greater loan and CLO note rating agreement between credit rating agencies, further supporting the relation between lower information costs and covenant standardization. Overall, our study provides evidence that loan securitization is related to the design of standardized financial covenants.     

全要素生产率、产能利用率与企业金融资源配置——基于中国上市企业委托贷款公告数据的经验分析

基于手工收集整理的2007-2015年沪深证券市场A股上市企业公告的委托贷款数据,运用理论模型和实证检验相结合的方法考察全要素生产率、产能利用率与企业金融资源配置之间的关系。结果发现:在控制了与委托贷款发放相关的企业其他内外部特征影响后,全要素生产率、产能利用率越低的企业,发放委托贷款的概率越大、数量越多,这说明,全要素生产率、产能利用率低的企业,更可能(或更多地)从事类金融业务活动。进一步分析发现,交易双方的关联程度越强,贷款企业与政府的关系越紧密,全要素生产率、产能利用率与委托贷款发放概率和发放数量之间的负向关系越明显。     

The effects of firm-initiated clawback provisions on bank loan contracting

Although firm-initiated clawbacks reduce accounting manipulation, they also induce managers to engage in suboptimal activities (e.g., reduce research and development (R&D) expenses) to achieve earnings targets. To assess the effectiveness of clawback provisions, we examine their impact from debtholders' point of view. We find that banks use more financial covenants and performance pricing provisions in the loan contracts and decrease interest rates after firms initiate clawbacks. Moreover, we also find that loan maturity increases and loan collateral decreases subsequent to clawback adoption. Taken together, our findings indicate that firm-initiated clawback provisions enhance financial reporting quality, thereby reducing the information uncertainty that financing providers face.     

The effect of borrowers' accounting conservatism on lenders' loan loss provisions: Evidence from China's banking industry

This paper investigates how borrowers' accounting conservatism affects lenders' loan loss provisions in the Chinese banking context. We predict that when borrowers' financial statements are more conservative, lenders receive borrowers' bad news in a timelier manner and set aside more loan loss provisions. The empirical results confirm that borrowers' accounting conservatism is positively associated with lenders' loan loss provisions, as the former affects the latter via its impact on loan classification, and this positive association is more pronounced when information asymmetry is higher. In heterogeneity tests, we find that this positive association is stronger for non-state-owned, listed, and less prudent lenders and also varies across debt contract characteristics. Collectively, the results of this study offer insights into how lenders accrue loan losses when borrowers' financial reporting is more conservative.     

Is there an optimal microcredit size to maximize the social and financial efficiencies of microfinance institutions?

Financial intermediation theory posits that a smaller loan size triggers a higher cost per dollar lent. This leads to question whether microfinance can become a self-sustainable industry. Hence, in microfinance innovations like loans without collateral, progressive loans, solidarity groups and relational lending are employed to reduce asymmetric information costs, adverse selection, and moral hazard while serving the poorest people. Crucially, we find a non-linear U-shaped effect of loan size on financial and social efficiencies. This reconciles the two opposite strands of the literature, aligning microfinance and banking central principles. The major implication of this study is that, unlike banking, microfinance institutions can grant small size loans while simultaneously obtaining high levels of financial and social efficiency. Indeed, our findings do not support the widely debated mission drift assumption since loan size does not generate a trade-off between financial and social outcomes. Therefore, loan size is a core management variable.     

Additional Credit for Liquidity-Constrained Individuals: High-Interest Consumer Credit in Korea

We find that the delinquency probability on formal sector debts of private loan borrowers in Korea increases from 2.4% to 20% in the first year after the borrowing and to 32% in the second year. This increase happens despite private loan borrowers trying to rebuild their financial health by reducing formal sector debts, credit card cash service balances, and credit card purchases during the post-borrowing period. This limits the possibility of moral hazard driving the results. Private loan amounts are positively associated with the delinquency probability after controlling other commonly used variables, suggesting that they contain additional information on the worsening financial situation of an individual.     

Financial outreach and household financial constraint

This paper analyses how financial outreach affects the probability of households having financial constraint (i.e. being ‘discouraged’ and ‘rejected’ for loan applications). We show that households residing in communities with more bank branches are less likely to be financially constrained. Using the distance to the closest fruit and vegetable (open) market as an instrument for financial outreach, we address the potential endogeneity problem and find our results remain robust. We further provide evidence on the negative relationship between the number of bank branches nearby and the probability of loan rejection, in particular for middle‐income young households.     

我国金融机构尾部风险影响因素的非线性研究——来自面板平滑转换回归模型的新证据

“十三五”期间,我国防范化解金融风险攻坚战取得决定性成就,而在“十四五”规划开局之际,我国的金融风险形势面临新的挑战,防范风险仍是金融业的永恒主题。在此背景下,本文采用相对重要性分析技术方法,考察机构规模以及相关基本面因素对我国上市金融机构尾部风险的贡献程度。接着,本文结合边际效应分析技术考察机构规模对风险的异质性效应,深入分析“太大而不能倒”假说在中国的适用性。在此基础上,进一步运用前沿的面板平滑转换估计模型,研究机构规模与尾部风险的非线性关系,并分析基本面因素对该异质性效应的影响力度。研究结果表明,我国上市银行等金融机构规模的增加能够有效缓释我国金融系统的尾部风险,但该影响效应将随着特许权价值、资产质量、杠杆水平、成本水平、收入结构、贷款结构等基本面指标的变化而出现显著的非线性转变。在此基础上,对强化我国金融系统中的风险防控薄弱环节、提高金融机构的风险吸收能力提出建议,以期为我国深化金融业改革开放、推动高质量发展提供理论分析与实证检验的参考依据。     

Religiosity,borrower gender and loan losses in microfinance institutions: a global evidence

We examine the impact of religious beliefs on loan repayments in 770 microfinance institutions (MFIs) across 65 countries over the period 2006–2018. We find robust evidence of a negative relationship between religiosity and loan losses in MFIs. We also find that the relationship between religiosity and loan losses is stronger for MFIs in Protestant-dominated countries than in Catholic-dominated countries. Moreover, religiosity improves the operational self-sufficiency of MFIs through a reduction in loan losses. We find that religiosity does not improve the loan repayment behaviour of women borrowers, but it reduces the loan size per borrower. Overall, our evidence suggests that although religiosity reduces loan losses through religiosity-induced lender-risk aversion, it does not improve the loan repayment behaviour of borrowers. We also use several approaches to evaluate our results to the effects of endogeneity.