房价收入比与住房支付能力指数的比较

研究目的：比较房价收入比和住房支付能力的计算方法,辨析二者的关系及各自的长处和短处。研究目的：文献法和实证研究。研究结果：房价收入比和住房支付能力指数都是衡量住房支付能力的重要指标,二者各有长处。研究结论：在可以获得数据的情况下,把房价收入比和住房支付能力指数都计算出来,对二者的变动态势进行比较和分析,可以获得对住房支付能力、住房市场运行态势的比较完整的认识。     

房价收入比指标研究综述

从房价收入比的定义、计算方法以及合理取值等方面,将国内房价收入比研究中较有影响力的文献进行系统梳理。研究发现,学者普遍认为中位数房价收入比要优于平均数计算的房价收入比,但具体的计算方法以及合理取值范围应根据考察对象实际情况而定,所以更具体、深入、准确的房价收入比测算模型还有待开发。     

留而不迁:农民工城市居留与落户意愿分异之谜——基于住房支付能力视角的分析

居留意愿到落户意愿转化困难是农民工市民化进程缓慢的主要原因之一。本文以住房支付能力为切入点,使用2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据(CMDS2017)匹配285个地级市宏观房价数据,对房价收入比与居留农民工本地落户意愿的关系进行考察。研究结果表明:(1)房价收入比上升降低了有居留意愿农民工的城市落户意愿,考虑内生性和稳健性下结论仍成立。(2)房价收入比上升通过增加农民工本地买房困难感知、降低其社会活动参与和城市融入主观感受,进而降低其本地落户意愿。(3)房价收入比上升对新生代、高学历和本地无自有住房农民工本地落户意愿抑制作用更大,对老一代和本地有自有住房农民工本地落户意愿无显著影响。(4)随着城市等级的上升,房价收入比对居留农民工本地落户意愿的抑制作用逐渐减小。本文研究结果为从完善城市住房市场体系和住房保障体系角度推进农民工市民化提供了证据支撑。     

中国住宅地价房价比的空间格局、演变特征及影响因素——基于35个大中城市的空间计量分析

研究目的:探索35个大中城市住宅地价房价比的空间格局、演变特征及影响因素,为房地产市场调控政策提供参考。研究方法:基于中国国土勘测规划院中国城市地价动态监测系统中35个大中城市2010—2017年住宅地价房价比的监测数据,运用描述性分析、探索性空间数据分析和面板空间杜宾模型进行研究。研究结果:(1)2010—2017年,35个大中城市地价房价比的平均值呈现先降后增再降的趋势,区域间绝对值和变化趋势的差异较为明显;(2)35个大中城市的地价房价比大致呈东南高、西北低的阶梯状格局,大部分城市的地价房价比分位数在研究段内未发生明显变化,仅北京、广州和呼和浩特明显上升,长春和合肥明显下降;(3)从关联特征来看,35个大中城市的地价房价比存在显著的空间聚集性,其呈现先升后降的趋势,在2013年达到最大;(4)通过面板空间杜宾模型研究发现,住宅用地供给对本地地价房价比有显著负向影响,房地产开发投资额和人均可支配收入对本地地价房价比有显著正向影响。空间效应方面,本地住宅用地供给和人口密度对邻近城市地价房价比有负向溢出效应,房地产开发投资额和人均可支配收入对邻近城市地价房价比有正向溢出效应。研究结论:住宅地价房价比不仅受本地土地供给、房地产开发规模和人均可支配收入影响,还受到邻近城市住宅用地供给和房地产开发规模的影响,因此房地产市场调控应该同时注重"城市联动"和"因城施策"。     

徐州市城市住宅用地合理价格测算

研究目的:建立城市住宅用地合理交易价格测算模型,评估基于居民可支配收入视角的徐州市城市住宅用地合理价格区间。研究方法:问卷调查法、统计分析法和计量模型法。研究结果:(1)徐州市居民收入整体偏向于低收入家庭,家庭月可支配收入区间为[600,9600]元;(2)根据家庭可支配收入测算的徐州市住宅用地价格区间为[318,9900]元/m2,平均地价为2755元/m2。研究结论:利用徐州市居民期望房价调查结果验证了基于居民家庭可支配收入的住宅用地合理价格测算结果的合理性,同时也验证了该模型的可行性。     

我国城镇居民住房消费能力评价方法

房价一直是我国房地产市场的焦点问题。社会各界包括政府、银行、房地产商和消费者由于各自利益和立场的不同，对房价高低与否各有说法。目前，国内常常使用“房价收入比”作为衡量某一地区住房价格综合水平的指标，并且围绕着以“房价收入比”的高低来评判房地产市场是否存在“泡沫”展开了争论。那么，“房价收入比”是否可以作为这样一个标准呢？如果不能或者不够合理，我们又该如何来衡量我国城镇居民住房的消费能力？     

如何看待房价走高

2004年,在人们的经济记忆中,房地产写下浓重的一笔。持续走高的房价触动了百姓的敏感神经:房地产成了茶余饭后的谈资“宠儿”;“房价收入比”、“地产泡沫”等专业术语点击率直线飙升;各种媒体发起的房价口水战也持续升温。此种关注程度绝对堪称盛世空前。面对各家的众说纷纭,人们该如何看待房价走高?希望笔者的愚见能为您抛砖引玉。一、我国的房价收入比与国际平均水平不具有可比性在google中键入“房价收入比”,搜索到的网页绝不低于三位数。但令人惋惜的是,其中多为均滥用此术语,将其与“3～6倍国际平均水平”比较。笔者以为,中国的房价…     

房价对城乡财产性收入差距的影响研究

住房问题关乎国计民生,房价成为影响城乡发展差距变动的重要因素。文章聚焦房价上涨对城乡家庭财产性收入差距变动的影响,并基于2005—2018年我国31个省级行政区域面板数据,采用固定效应模型与动态面板系统GMM估计方法,对房价如何影响城乡财产性收入差距变动进行实证研究。研究发现,房价上涨会显著拉大城乡财产性收入差距,并且这种影响存在区域差异性。文章认为应调整预防房价上涨的相关政策,落实中央"房住不炒"定位,以缓解房价上涨导致的城乡家庭财产性收入差距过大现象,助力推进社会高质量发展。     

中国房地产业与房价危机

近年来,中国房地产业蓬勃发展,房价逐步飙升＂,买房难、住房难＂成了广大民众心头的一块负担,然而更成了关系民生的重大社会问题。虽然政府不断出台相关政策以应对高房价,但房价根本没有实质性的回落。本文利用房价收入比为工具,从中国房地产现状、中美房价收入比对比入手,剖析中国高房价成因、发展趋势以及房产改革措施。     

我国居民房价承受能力分析

住房问题是国家一项重大的社会问题,房价的高低与居民的生活息息相关。本文在分析我国城镇居民住房供求状况的基础上,结合政府房产税试点的实施,采用房价收入比和住房支付能力指数两个指标,对我国目前居民房价承受能力进行分析,并提出高房价的原因及应对措施。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

The Effect of the Structural Adjustment Program on the Output,Prices and Exports of Major Agricultural Export Crops in Nigeria

The primary objective of this paper is to examine changes in the level of output, prices and exports of major export crops resulting from the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria. THere two main sources of data: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its annual reports, Economic and Financial Review, and the Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) through its Trade Summaries. Although the SAP led to appreciable increases in output and producer prices, its effects on exports were insignificant. The implications of these for the implementation of the program are explored.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Evaluating Alternative Policy Responses to Higher World Food Prices: The Case of Increasing Rice Prices in Madagascar

Higher world food prices have led many developing countries to adopt policies to mitigate the impact on low-income households. This article sets out a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the efficiency, distributional, and revenue implications of alternative policy responses. The model is applied to evaluate tariff reductions and targeted transfers in Madagascar. Although lowering tariffs generates substantial efficiency gains, these accrue mainly to the top half of the welfare distribution, and poor net sellers are actually worse off. Developing a system of targeted direct transfers to poor households is likely to be a substantially more cost-effective approach to poverty alleviation.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Revealing different understandings of soil held by scientists and farmers in the context of soil protection and management

This paper aims to analyse and draw together results from similar studies in England, Switzerland and France which investigated farmers’ understanding of soil and compared it with that of scientists, researchers and advisors (collectively called scientists in this analysis). A range of methods were used across the three studies and different theoretical approaches, looking at forms of knowledge, local practice of knowledge production and conceptions of reality, were employed to explain the results. Despite the different contexts, methodologies and theoretical approaches in the three studies, the results reveal similar patterns of difference in farmer and scientist understanding of soil. In the English study, farmers demonstrate a ‘know-how’ form or intuitive working knowledge of soil while advisors rely on scientifically established forms of ‘know-why’ and seek to understand and explain soil processes. Similarly in the Swiss study farmers’ and scientists’ differing perceptions are directed and shaped by their respective aims, methods and context of work. In the French study, farmers and researchers are shown to have different conceptions of soil, they attribute different meaning to the same activities, and use different words and language to describe the same features. In all three studies understanding is shown to be cultural and contextual, as such an integrative theoretical framework is proposed.     

Transaction Cost Thresholds in International Rice Markets

Recent episodes of high and volatile prices for grains such as rice have raised concerns about their implications for hunger and poverty. We model price relationships between international rice prices and 221 domestic prices in 47 developing countries that import rice. We use a threshold vector error correction model that accounts for transaction costs of trade in spatial price transmission, and an improved regularised Bayesian threshold estimator for threshold models. Our results show that threshold values are higher after 2008 than before, which suggests that transaction costs in international rice trade have increased in recent years. Threshold values are highest for Latin American countries followed by African and Asian countries, and higher for retail than for wholesale prices. Since 2008, price transmission is slower in countries that responded to high and volatile prices with domestic market‐based interventions such as price controls and faster in countries that responded by lowering tariffs and by implementing production support measures.