教育人力资本、健康人力资本与地区经济增长差异——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

在M-R-W增长模型框架下,将人力资本的内涵扩展至教育和健康两个方面。用教育收益率修正了教育人力资本指标,而健康则主要从投入角度加以测度。应用传统的固定效应模型和动态面板模型(DGMM)估计教育人力资本、健康人力资本对地区经济差异的影响。结果显示,人力资本促使全国省际间人均GDP增长出现明显的"俱乐部"收敛现象,而三大地区内部的经济增长则表现出条件收敛趋势。从教育人力资本产出弹性可以看出,东部地区经济增长的驱动力正从物质资本向人力资本方向转变。以每万人拥有床位数代表的健康人力资本促进了全国及区域范围内的经济增长。     

Modelling Social Infrastructure and Economic Growth

This paper develops a growth model with a public sector and a human capital sector to explore the impact of social infrastructure on investment in physical capital, the accumulation of skills, output, and consumption. We show that the implications of the model are consistent with the empirical observations of Hall and Jones (1999 ). Economies where government policies and institutions encourage production over diversion have a larger 'stock' of social infrastructure, conditional on population size and sophistication of diversion technologies, which raises output per worker by increasing the extent of participation in market, rather than diversive, activities. The magnitude of these effects depends on economic agents' inherent propensity for rent-seeking. In addition, economies with unstable governments may suffer from an under-provision of social infrastructure and, consequently, have reduced levels of capital and output per worker.     

The spillover effects of innovative ideas on human capital

This paper extends a two‐period overlapping generations model of endogenous growth where the interactions between public infrastructure and human capital with research and development (R&D) activities and growth are studied. The paper makes two important contributions. First, it accounts for the spillover effect of the stock of ideas on learning, which in turn promotes the production of innovative technologies. In doing so, it brings to the fore a two‐way interaction between human capital and innovation. The paper then applies various econometric methods which confirm the above theoretical thesis. Second, the solutions of the model emphasize the important role public spending on infrastructure, human capital and R&D can play in promoting economic growth. However, the findings also show that trade‐offs in the allocation of public spending may inevitably emerge. In particular, investment in public infrastructure at the expense of spending on R&D is less likely to succeed in promoting economic growth, whereas it may be more effective to foster growth through an offsetting cut in another productive component, namely, education. In light of these potential trade‐offs, governments in low‐income countries need to use their limited budgets as part of holistic measures in order to achieve efficient outcomes.     

Growth regression revisited: R&D promotes convergence?

Barro and Sala-i-Martin (2004) analysed the empirical determinants of growth. They used a cross-sectional empirical framework that considered growth from two kinds of factors, initial levels of steady-state variables and control variables (e.g. investment ratio, infrastructure). Recent literature suggests that Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation of dynamic panel data models produce more efficient and consistent estimates than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) or pooled regression models. Following Cellini (1997), we also consider co-integration and error-correction methods for the growth regression. We extend the previous research for Asian countries of Kim (2009) to developed countries. Following the implications of semi-endogenous growth theory, we regressed output growth on a constant, 1-year lagged output (initial income) and the determinants of steady-state income (investment rate, population growth, the quadratic (or linear) function of Research and Development (R&D) intensity). The regression suggests faster significant convergence. This contradicts with that of Mankiw et al. (1992), which asserts that the speed is lower when considering broad concept of capital including human capital. The coefficients for the determinants of steady-state income, especially for the quadratic function of R&D intensity, are significant and occur in the expected direction. Our results suggest that adopting appropriate growth policy, an economy can grow more rapidly through transition dynamics or changing fundamentals.     

Regional Exports and Economic Growth: The Case of Spanish Regions

Different variables have been considered growth enhancing. Traditionally, physical capital, human capital, and public capital have been considered. While the first two variables have been considered positive factors, the latter shows an ambiguous effect. The literature has also considered the role of exports in the economic growth process, introducing several arguments that test the hypothesis that exports are growth enhancing. One argument to be considered is that higher exports can increase total factor productivity due to returns to scale and that exports are an effective means to introduce advanced technology. To test this argument, an empirical analysis considered three possibilities, an export model, a demand model, and a mixed model that combined both. This empirical analysis was carried out for the various Spanish regions.     

Externalities of investment and endogenous growth: theory and time series evidence

In the paper we present and estimate an endogenous growth model in which sustained per capita growth is the result of positive externalities of investment in physical capital. In contrast to the usual assumption that investment raises physical capital and, as a byproduct, a stock of knowledge one for one, we suppose a different framework. So, we treat physical and human capital as two distinct variables and underline the importance of the stock of knowledge per physical capital as to the growth performance of countries. Estimation of that model for France, Germany and Japan shows that it is compatible with empirical data. For Great Britain the model performs poor and for the USA it does not produce reasonable outcomes at all. One conclusion we draw from our studies is that an endogenous growth model with positive externalities of investment is of empirical relevance. However, the growth process is also determined by country specific factors such that cross-countries studies should be considered with some care.     

自然灾害对长期经济增长的影响

本文构建了一个包含自然灾害的两部门内生增长模型。研究发现,自然灾害对长期增长的影响幅度取决于其造成的人力资本存量损失。同时,灾害发生会促使经济主体更多地投资于人力资本。本文应用跨国数据分析了自然灾害风险、经济增长和人力资本投资间的长期关系,发现自然灾害对宏观经济活动有重要影响,并主要通过影响人力资本投资行为发生作用。     

Macroeconomic performance and convergence in OECD countries

This paper investigates the robustness of the correlation between growth and a set of variables which comprises accumulation rates in human and physical capital and medium term macroeconomic indicators in OECD countries. We include these variables as additional regressors in the standard growth equation that comes from the human capital-augmented Solow model. Our results show that variables related to medium term macroeconomic performance affect both growth and convergence. In some periods these variables even outperform the explanatory power of the conventional growth variables such as the accumulation rates. Our results also suggest that it is difficult to analyse the contribution to growth of any particular macroeconomic indicator in an isolated way. Rather, these effects should be studied in a framework that accounts for the macroeconomic performance of a country.     

China's Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Economic Growth

The present paper applies Lucas's theory of endogenous growth and Stiglitz's theory of local public goods to build an econometric model consisting of five simultaneous equations to study China's fiscal decentralization effects on regional economic growth. The model is estimated by two‐stage least squares using a set of panel data on 31 Chinese provinces during 1996–2005. The estimated results show that China's fiscal decentralization increased the local governments' expenditure on physical infrastructure and education, which led to the rising local physical capital stock and human capital levels, respectively, and then resulted in the growth of regional economies.     

The interactive effects of human capital and quality of life on economic growth

To bridge the gap in the quality of life (QOL) and economic growth literature and understand the reinforcing effects of QOL and human capital on economic development, we examine the interactive effects of these two factors on wage growth from 2000 to 2007 at the county level across the United States. First, a Rosen–Roback model is employed to estimate implicit values of amenities including climate, clean air and other natural attributes, which are used to generate QOL indices. Second, QOL, human capital represented by the share of college graduates, and their interaction serve as key variables in the wage growth model. An instrumental variable approach and location fixed effects are used to address endogeneity of human capital and control for location-specific unobservable characteristics. Results suggest that human capital and QOL significantly contribute to economic growth and the growth effects are even larger in nonmetropolitan counties. Importantly, we find that the effect of human capital on growth is larger in high-QOL counties and QOL enhances the effect of human capital on growth. Our results provide empirical support for community development strategies through providing utility-enhancing amenities that improve QOL and retain human capital.     

International R&D spillovers and institutions

The empirical analysis in “International R&D Spillovers” [Coe, D., Helpman, E., 1995. International R&D Spillovers. European Economic Review, 39, 859-887] is first revisited on an expanded data set that we have constructed for the purpose of this study. The new estimates confirm the key results reported in Coe and Helpman about the impact of domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks on TFP. In addition, we show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks have measurable impacts on TFP even after controlling for the impact of human capital. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to include institutional variables. Our results suggest that institutional differences are important determinants of TFP and that they impact the degree of R&D spillovers. Countries where the ease of doing business and the quality of tertiary education systems are relatively high tend to benefit more from their own R&D efforts, from international R&D spillovers, and from human capital formation. Strong patent protection is associated with higher levels of total factor productivity, higher returns to domestic R&D, and larger international R&D spillovers. Finally, countries whose legal systems are based on French and, to a lesser extent, Scandinavian law benefit less from their own and foreign R&D capital than countries whose legal origins are based on English or German law.     

劳动力流动非金钱因素实证分析——基于结构方程

文章运用结构方程的方法研究了影响劳动力流动的非金钱因素。文章首先提出问题，指出影响劳动力流动的因素除了有经济因素以外，还有教育、卫生、社会保障和基础设施等非金钱因素；接下来，通过结构方程，对中国31个行政区域影响劳动力流动的非金钱因素的具体情况进行了实证分析；最后，得到了分析的结果，文章认为，城市基础设施、教育经费的投入、以及城乡一体的社会保障体系对劳动力流动的影响呈现出正向的关系。特别是人均住宅建筑面积的提高可以极大程度的增加劳动力的流入。另一方面，劳动力流动程度的加强对劳动力进入地区的部分行业影响也大致呈现出正向的关系。劳动力大量的进入流入地，将会导致流入地劳动力要素供给增加，尤其是具有较高素质的劳动力要素流动还会增加流入地的人力资本存量，激励当地企业增加对人力资本投资，以提高企业自身劳动力的素质。     

基础设施对中国经济增长的影响及机制研究*——基于扩展的Barro增长模型

基础设施既可以作为特殊的资本存量直接促进经济增长，又可以通过促进投资和劳动力增加（增加生产要素数量）以及提高存量资本和劳动力的边际生产率（提高生产要素效率）间接促进经济增长。本文构建了一个扩展的Barro经济增长模型，并利用中国1992—2016年省级面板数据和中介效应模型对两条机制进行实证检验。结果发现：基础设施对经济增长具有促进作用，但对交通、能源、通信三类基础设施的影响以及在2008年金融危机前后均表现出异质性。直接效应呈动态上升趋势，中介效应则逐渐下降。针对异质性的原因，本文进一步采用非线性模型进行检验。结果表明我国基础设施对经济增长的促进作用主要表现为规模扩张型、数量型或外延型，而不是以质量型和内涵型为主的形式。能源和通信基础设施对经济增长的总效应具有规模效应，交通基础设施的规模效应不显著，但也对经济增长具有持续促进作用。这说明目前我国三类基础设施仍然具有较大投资潜力。其中的关键是要通过基础设施建设提高生产要素效率。     

Cross-country evidence on the link between the level of infrastructure and capital inflows

The relationship between public infrastructure and international capital flows is empirically investigated. Out of a sample of 30 countries a cross-sectional econometric model is constructed to estimate the effects. Different components of infrastructure variables are tested in relation to their impact on different kinds of external capital liabilities. The results suggest a positive relationship between the level of infrastructure and capital inflows. However, statistical significance cannot be established for all variables in question.     

基础设施对中国经济增长的影响及机制研究*——基于扩展的Barro增长模型

基础设施既可以作为特殊的资本存量直接促进经济增长，又可以通过促进投资和劳动力增加（增加生产要素数量）以及提高存量资本和劳动力的边际生产率（提高生产要素效率）间接促进经济增长。本文构建了一个扩展的Barro经济增长模型，并利用中国1992—2016年省级面板数据和中介效应模型对两条机制进行实证检验。结果发现：基础设施对经济增长具有促进作用，但对交通、能源、通信三类基础设施的影响以及在2008年金融危机前后均表现出异质性。直接效应呈动态上升趋势，中介效应则逐渐下降。针对异质性的原因，本文进一步采用非线性模型进行检验。结果表明我国基础设施对经济增长的促进作用主要表现为规模扩张型、数量型或外延型，而不是以质量型和内涵型为主的形式。能源和通信基础设施对经济增长的总效应具有规模效应，交通基础设施的规模效应不显著，但也对经济增长具有持续促进作用。这说明目前我国三类基础设施仍然具有较大投资潜力。其中的关键是要通过基础设施建设提高生产要素效率。     

The Influence of Socioeconomic Factors on Economic Growth

The main goal of this paper is to analyse the relationship between social capital and economic growth taking into account the role of fiscal policy from theoretical and empirical points of view. To achieve this goal, “Human Capital and Public Capital Effects on Economic Growth” is focused on the effects of two traditional factors: human capital and public capital effects on economic growth. “Social Capital Effects on Economic Growth” considers qualitative variables introducing some socioeconomic effects on economic growth process analysis. In this case, social capital the main variable will be considered. “Empirical Analysis,” an empirical analysis is developed considering the case of European countries prior to the EU enlargement. Finally, in Conclusions,” the main conclusions will be resumed.      

The puzzle of aid and growth: any role for investment?

This paper explores the relationship between aid and growth, through the explicit inclusion of the investment component. We construct a new database, which adds to the previous papers’ variables (policy, institutional quality and civil unrest) some capital accumulation indicators. Partly based on the main literature, a simultaneous equations model is constructed to account for endogeneity and different methods are applied for a robustness check. Although in line with previous literature, in this paper we find that the capital accumulation process is a significant and fundamental channel to understand the link between development assistance and growth. In low-income countries aid effectiveness seems to be significantly lower.     

中国传统文化信念、人力资本积累与家庭养老保障机制

本文首先构建一个人力资本积累模型,考察传统文化信念驱动下的家庭养老保障机制以及社会养老保障制度对家庭养老和人力资本投资行为进而对经济增长的影响。分析表明,传统文化信念将后代人力资本积累与父代养老保障有机地联系起来,提供了一种很好的家庭养老保障和人力资本内生积累机制;现收现付型社会养老保障制度不利于人力资本积累和经济增长。其次,本文以我国现实数据为基础进行实证研究,得到结论是社会养老保障制度对我国人力资本积累和经济增长具有明显的抑制作用,而家庭养老保障机制的良好运转则有助于更好地促进人力资本积累和经济增长。因此,我国在致力于完善社会养老保障制度的同时,决不能忽视家庭养老保障机制的作用与培育。     

The Uzawa–Lucas model without scale effects: theory and empirical evidence

Numerous cross-sectional tests have been performed to evaluate the predictions of recent growth theories such as the Uzawa–Lucas growth model. In a series of papers and in his book, Jones [Q. J. Econ. 110 (1995a) 495; J. Political Econ. 103 (1995b) 759; The upcoming slowdown in US economic growth, Stanford University, Stanford] has shifted the attention toward the time series predictions of endogenous growth models. By contrasting endogenous growth models with facts, one is frequently confronted with the prediction that levels of economic variables, such as human capital, imply lasting effects on the per capita growth rate of an economy. As stylized facts show, measures of education or human capital in most advanced countries have dramatically increased, mostly more than the gross domestic production (GDP). Yet, the growth rates have roughly remained constant or even declined. In this paper we modify the growth effects of education and human capital in our variant of the Uzawa–Lucas growth models and test the model using time series data for the US and Germany from 1962.1 to 1996.4. We consider two versions. In the first, we treat the time spent for education as exogenously given and we neglect the external effect of human capital. In the second version, the time spent for education is an endogenous variable and the external effect of human capital is taken into account. Our results demonstrate that the model is compatible with the time series for aggregate data in those countries. The parameters fall into reasonable ranges.     

人力资本外流与经济增长--对人才外流损失的计量分析

本文在新古典增长模型的基础上,引入人力资本和移民净流出量两个变量,采用比较静态的分析方法,计量分析平衡增长路径上人才外流的收入损失.由于外流人才富含人力资本,根据给定参数计算,即使少量的高素质人才外流,也会带来巨大的经济损失.如果不考虑人力资本的正外部经济效应和国家教育投资损失,仅考虑劳动力和人力资本等生产要素流失所带来的经济损失,根据2002年的数据估算,我国当年的国内生产总值因人才外流就损失约92.2亿元.