Exports,Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data

In this work we first model the role of demand‐ and supply‐side factors (labour market adjustment, productive efficiency) in explaining economic growth. Empirically testing the model, we evaluate why different growth regimes may appear in the 20 Italian administrative regions. This exercise uses a two‐stage econometric approach. Estimates for the elasticity of manufacturing output to exports are obtained from regional time series: a significant long‐run relationship indicates the existence of a demand‐constrained growth regime. We then ascertain whether the regional dispersion of supply‐side factors has an impact on the regional dispersion of growth regimes. The empirical evidence supports our expectations of strong regional differences. Southern regions are less likely to display demand‐constrained regimes. In explanation of these differences, second‐stage analysis reveals that a strong role is played by such efficiency‐enhancing factors as technological innovation, bank diffusion and ‘social capital’. No role is found for labour market rigidities.     

社会媒体参与下从众行为对管理创新扩散的影响

从众行为影响管理创新扩散已成为共识,社会媒体参与下的从众行为发生了诸多变化,进而影响管理创新扩散的方向和速度。创造性地将从众行为解构为从众搜索、从众转换和信息传播3个要素,分析了社会媒体对3个要素的影响。构建了社会媒体参与下从众行为影响管理创新扩散的系统动力学模型,通过仿真发现:降低从众搜索强度和提高从众转换概率会改变管理创新扩散方向,而变化信息传播结构不会改变扩散方向,但会加速扩散过程。     

‘Hybrid’ open source software virtual communities of practice – a conceptual framework

‘Hybrid’ open source software communities are conducive to knowledge integration and innovation, and can be seen through a community of practice lens. In this paper, we develop an integrated process theory of structural attributes and social mechanisms of hybrid virtual communities. We offer a dynamic view of knowledge integration and innovation in such communities. We also emphasise the multi-faceted nature of virtual communities and identify factors that regulate participation and sustain such communities. This has implications for theorising about knowledge integration and innovation in hybrid virtual settings. Finally, virtual ethnography and multi-level research are suggested for future research.     

创新扩散时间形态的S型曲线研究

创新扩散是创新通过某种渠道随着时间在社会系统成员间传播的过程。创新扩散S型规则由两条曲线组成：一条被称为累积采用曲线,即S型曲线;另一条被称为单位时间采用量曲线,即钟形曲线。创新扩散率主要受创新特点、创新者特点和环境因素的影响。从创新扩散S型曲线的由来看,其发端于人口增长模型中的增长曲线,后由Tarde提出S型曲线规则,最后Ryan和Gross促使其成为一种研究范式。从创新扩散S型曲线成因看,“波浪效应”和“阈值模型”是两种典型的解释模型：“波浪效应”是指创新扩散过程就像波浪一样,由创新中心点向四周扩散;“阈值模型”探讨了在个人参与某项活动之前,参与该活动的其他个体必须达到的人数。未来重点围绕3个方面进行深化研究：①进一步验证S型曲线;②验证创新扩散S型曲线中的数理模型;③结合创新扩散影响因素与扩散形态,将模型应用到创新扩散预测方面。     

How an innovation is formed: A case study of Japanese word processors

An innovation is formed in the social system through the diffusion process, and artifacts that embody the innovation alter their aspects considerably. This study proposes an innovation-diffusion model on the assumption that an innovation interacts with a social system, which shows dynamic and self-organizing characteristics. That is, firstly, an innovation appears that overthrows the existing technological paradigm. Secondly, after the appearance of an innovation, engineers or relevant professionals witnessing the innovation conduct various kinds of trial and error to compete with each other. Thirdly, under passing through the turmoil period, the social system in which an innovation has been implemented becomes changing its structure. Fourthly, once an innovation has surpassed the irreversible phase, obtaining the dominant design, it becomes embedded into the social system. In order to verify the model, I refer to the diffusion process of the Japanese word processors into the Japanese society around 1980s. Following the result of this study, this paper points out that the diffusion theory should be reconsidered, especially about the meanings of the critical mass, the dichotomy of the innovator-imitator model, and so on. Besides, strategic planners or policy makers would do well to construct innovation strategies or technology policies to implement the innovation by affecting such factors as the internal and external influence factors and the population of the potential adopters.     

企业技术多样性、实质性社会责任信息披露与创新扩散

技术多样性是企业创新能力的重要表征，但现有研究对于技术多样性与创新扩散的关系存在争议。对此，区分相关和不相关技术多样性对创新扩散的异质性影响，并检验实质性社会责任信息披露作为一种信号传递机制对上述关系的调节作用。基于2008—2017年中国研发密集型上市企业数据进行实证分析，结果发现：相关技术多样性能够积极影响创新扩散；不相关技术多样性对创新扩散的影响存在滞后效应；实质性社会责任信息披露正向调节不相关技术多样性与创新扩散的关系。结论丰富了创新扩散理论与实证研究，可为企业创新实践提供决策依据。     

Collaborative innovation and policy support: the emergence of trilateral networks

ABSTRACT

The present article models the critical factors for a successful and evolutionarily stable National System of Innovation. We simulate a model, against the background of increasingly complex technologies, in a national process of agents’ interactions with social-dilemma characteristics. In particular, the articleinvestigates the emergence of a trilateral collaborative innovation alliance among ‘enterprise’, ‘university’ and ‘government’. We apply a tripartite evolutionary game with a replication process and explore the role and options of the public policy agent to support collaboration on innovation. We find that some policy mix, in particular, a combination of (1) public rewards for cooperation, (2) public punishment for non-cooperation and (3) settings of public cost controls and tax income from innovation, can promote broad and sustainable innovation alliances. For instance, threats of strong punishment, even with low public rewards for cooperation, may promote the formation of a collaborative innovation alliance. We run some sensitivity analyses of the results through parametric variation of two critical factors of the model, knowledge spillover and output elasticity of knowledge input. We find some qualifications for the velocity of the process.     

考虑影响不对称性的创新扩散与网络结构协同演化建模：基于信息熵与累积优势的仿真研究

创新扩散发生于社会系统中并通常与社会系统存在交互作用。网络是体现社会系统的重要手段，但已有研究中的扩散网络多为无向网络且具有静态或外生动态性质，上述处理方式忽视或无法体现扩散与以网络形式出现的社会系统的协同演化以及个体间的不对称影响。基于有向网络，提出能够体现创新扩散与网络协同演化的描述性框架，从信息搜寻与降低认知失调视角出发，基于信息熵与累积优势机制，在个体层面构造网络演化与创新采纳数学模型。在RepastSimphony2.7开发平台下，利用基于Java的智能体建模方法展开系统仿真实验。基于实验数据的描述性结果揭示，动态网络与静态网络下的创新扩散存在显著不同，网络结构演化将强化节点出度的不均衡状况，更优的扩散结果往往与更不均衡的节点出度分布同时出现，其它因素包括大众传播与人际传播等也会影响扩散与网络的协同演化；交互作用存在于控制变量间。推断性结果确认了控制变量影响与交互作用的普遍存在。     

Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries

The paper presents a broadband diffusion analysis for European OECD member countries. The Bass diffusion model is used to estimate the total number of potential adopters, the coefficient of innovation and the coefficient of imitation. The analysis shows that if the present trends continue broadband services will not reach the 100% penetration rate in the near future. Based on these findings, the question of a possible revitalization is discussed with a focus on those segments of the population which are slower to adopt broadband. A survey of households in rural areas provides preliminary investigation of reasons for continuing non-adoption, such as social habits and lack of both knowledge and interest.     

欧盟促进农村社会化科技创新的政策措施

欧盟农村发展计划及其农村发展行动联合计划(Leader计划),有效促进了欧盟农村创新体系各主体之间的合作,推动了农村社会化创新,是欧盟推动农村发展的一种创新陛政策实践。通过对欧盟Leader计划、欧盟农村发展计划及推动农村社会创新的政策措施等进行研究分析,提出了推动我国农村社会化创新的建议:充分发挥农民的主观能动性,推进农村社会创新;利用经济刺激手段,提高农产品质量;实施生态补偿,引导农民保护环境;建立公私合作伙伴机制,促进农村社会化创新。     

欠发达农区特色种植空间扩散研究——以河南省大营村为例

农业创新只有充分地扩散,才能最大限度地发挥出其经济效应。本文以河南省信阳市固始县大营村为例,分析了大营村萝卜特色种植的优势条件,借助创新扩散理论揭示其特色种植的空间扩散轨迹,并总结其空间扩散方式、空间结构及影响环境。得出如下结论：①大营村特色萝卜产业选择具有优越的自然资源禀赋、悠久的种植历史、广阔的市场需求等优势;②大营村萝卜种植扩散,在空间上按照渐进式和跳跃式相结合的方式进行,存在一定的距离递减效应;③大营村萝卜种植扩散的空间结构呈现出点轴式模式,种植基地布局具有明显的“杜能圈”印迹;④大营村萝卜种植的空间扩散受到空间距离、地理环境、扩散效益、政府作用等因素的影响。     

Strong price of anarchy

A strong equilibrium is a pure Nash equilibrium which is resilient to deviations by coalitions. We define the strong price of anarchy (SPoA) to be the ratio of the worst strong equilibrium to the social optimum. Differently from the Price of Anarchy (defined as the ratio of the worst Nash Equilibrium to the social optimum), it quantifies the loss incurred from the lack of a central designer in settings that allow for coordination.We study the SPoA in two settings, namely job scheduling and network creation. In the job scheduling game we show that for unrelated machines the SPoA can be bounded as a function of the number of machines and the size of the coalition. For the network creation game we show that the SPoA is at most 2. In both cases we show that a strong equilibrium always exists, except for a well defined subset of network creation games.     

我国农村地区的技术进步——基于空间计量经济学

利用1999—2008年广东省的市域数据,基于空间面板模型对其农村地区的技术进步模式进行了实证分析。结果显示:该地区的农村技术具有明显的空间相关性,且这种空间相关性随经济发展有逐渐增强的趋势;农村技术进步的途径主要有三种,即区域内农村研发创新、城市先进技术溢出以及农村地区间技术扩散;以农村投资为代表的"干中学"以及农村地区间的技术扩散是农村技术进步的主要动力;受农村吸收能力弱等因素的限制,城市先进技术溢出较其他两种途径对农村技术进步的影响较小,但仍是农村技术进步的重要来源。最后提出,加强农村科技投入,提高农村自主研发和创新能力,提高农村地区的消化、吸收能力以及促进农村地区间的技术扩散,是解决"三农"问题的重要渠道。     

中国农村养老保障制度中政府责任的 理论框架：基于制度文化的视角

本文基于制度文化的视角,运用跨学科的研究方法,指出中国农村养老保障制度中政府责任应包括政治责任、经济责任和社会责任三个组成部分。而借鉴制度文化与制度的一般性关系,有利于弥补现有研究仅仅局限于经济学视角的不足,从而构建了一个新的理论框架,为今后的深入研究提供一个新的探索方向,即政府执政理念影响农村养老保障制度设计的价值取向。政府设计农村养老保障制度的具体内容要符合传统文化特点,政府推动农村养老保障制度可持续发展要与传统文化协调一致,政府应承担农村养老保障制度创新中制度环境建设的责任。     

城市科技创新人才政策扩散动力因素时空差异研究

科技创新人才是城市提升创新能力的核心资源,是科技进步的关键要素。科技创新人才政策作为城市争夺人才的工具,被各个城市广泛采纳和使用。以161个城市为研究对象,运用事件史分析方法,探寻城市科技创新人才政策扩散的动力因素并进行时空差异分析。研究发现,城市科技创新人才政策扩散具有双重动力因素：在需求拉动因素中,经济发展水平和财政收入是影响城市科技创新人才政策扩散的主要因素;在压力推动因素中,行政指令、府际竞争和社会舆论显著影响城市科技创新人才政策扩散;在政策扩散平稳增长期,双重动力因素共同作用于政策扩散过程,而在政策扩散加速和减速增长期,城市科技创新人才政策扩散动力因素存在差异;在东、中部地区,压力推动因素占据主导,而在西部地区,双重动力因素都发挥重要作用。     

The patterns of induced diffusion: Evidence from the international diffusion of wind energy

Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research.     

Should environmental R&D be prioritized?

An innovator may not be able to capture the full social benefit of her innovation and, therefore, governments support private R&D through various measures. We compare a market good innovation—to develop a more efficient technology to produce a standard market good—with an environmental innovation—to develop a more efficient abatement technology—that has the same potential to increase the social surplus. In the first-best outcome, which can be achieved by offering an R&D subsidy and a diffusion subsidy, the R&D subsidy should be greatest for an environmental innovation, whereas the diffusion subsidy should be greatest for a market good innovation. The ranking of the two types of subsidies reflects that the appropriability problem is greater for an environmental innovation than for a market good innovation.     

It’s a match! Simulating compatibility-based learning in a network of networks

In this article, we develop a new way to capture knowledge diffusion and assimilation in innovation networks by means of an agent-based simulation model. The model incorporates three essential characteristics of knowledge that have not been covered entirely by previous diffusion models: the network character of knowledge, compatibility of new knowledge with already existing knowledge, and the fact that transmission of knowledge requires some form of attention. We employ a network-of- networks approach, where agents are located within an innovation network and each agent itself contains another network composed of knowledge units (KUs). Since social learning is a path-dependent process, in our model, KUs are exchanged among agents and integrated into their respective knowledge networks depending on the received KUs’ compatibility with the currently focused ones. Thereby, we are also able to endogenize attributes such as absorptive capacity that have been treated as an exogenous parameter in some of the previous diffusion models. We use our model to simulate and analyze various scenarios, including cases for different degrees of knowledge diversity and cognitive distance among agents as well as knowledge exploitation vs. exploration strategies. Here, the model is able to distinguish between two levels of knowledge diversity: heterogeneity within and between agents. Additionally, our simulation results give fresh impetus to debates about the interplay of innovation network structure and knowledge diffusion. In summary, our article proposes a novel way of modeling knowledge diffusion, thereby contributing to an advancement of the economics of innovation and knowledge.     

基于技术创新与制度创新的武汉城市圈农业科技发展

在城乡统筹的背景下,积极推进农业技术创新与制度创新,以城带乡、加快农业科技发展是新时期城乡经济社会一体化发展的根本出路。以武汉城市圈为例,分析了其农业科技发展现状、存在的问题及加快农业科技发展的关键要素,并提出了相关对策建议。     

Beyond national and technological styles of innovation diffusion: a dynamic perspective on cases from the energy and transport sectors

This article argues that styles of innovation diffusion dynamics depend on both national and niche-specific factors and that their respective influence changes during the innovation diffusion process. Based on a review of approaches, dealing on the one hand with differences in national innovation and technology systems and on the other with process of niche formation and development, a theoretical synthesis and pattern of analysis is suggested for interpreting and comparing empirical findings from two different technology examples. The analysis of combined heat and power (CHP) in Germany, UK and the Netherlands, and of electric vehicles in Germany, Sweden and France allows us to identify different styles of innovation diffusion dynamics. These styles are determined by the relative importance of national and niche-specific factors in different phases of the process of technological change. Support in lent to the hypothesis that a style which combines impulses for innovation at both structural and niche is particularly conducive to radical change.