The Impact of Cereal Prices and Policy on Crop Rotations and Supply Response

The impact of cereal prices on rotational decisions and farm‐level and industry cereal supply is considered. It is argued that with the voluntary 50 per cent set‐aside option for cereal producers, there is a large financial incentive to adopt a 50 per cent set‐aside cropping plan as cereal prices fall below an individual producer's ‘indifference’price. For a typical 210‐hectare UK combinable crop farm, adopting a 50 per cent set‐aside cropping plan is optimal when the price of cereals is below £62/tonne (98.50/tonne). If widely adopted, 50 per cent set‐aside will lead to a substantial fall in the supply of cereals and would lead the industry supply curve for cereals to move leftward and become more elastic over a certain price range. The level of reduced cereal supply will be greater than would be predicted from an estimate of industry level supply response that ignored rotational and farm‐level financial incentives.     

OUTLIERS IN AGRICULTURE: AN INTERVENTION ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND VALUES

Intervention analysis offers a framework for the identification and modelling of outlying observations in empirical time series. Within this framework, there are two types of outlier; an additive outlier, representing a one-period blip in the series, and an innovational outlier, whose effect is spread over many time periods. Intervention analysis is used here to study an agricultural land price boom of the early 1970s that is generally believed to have been caused by speculative activity, and the statistical results are consonant with that view. The procedure detects an innovational outlier in the land price series at 1972 with dynamic effects that resemble the life cycle of a speculative bubble. It is inferred from these results that speculation added 52 per cent to the rate of growth of land prices in 1972, 19 per cent in 1973 and caused a fall in the rate of change in land prices of 19 per cent in 1974 and 17 per cent in 1975.     

Two centuries of farmland prices in England

The dissemination of robust asset price data can help improve market efficiency, resource allocation and investment analysis. Land prices influence housing affordability, food security and the carbon infrastructure. Yet price and return histories for farmland in England are fragmented. To provide perspective, a long farmland price series is needed to improve transparency and bring the asset class into line with commercial and residential real estate. After reviewing the historical backdrop and considering methodology, this research uses a chain-linking approach to construct a long-term farmland price series for England. It then adjusts the series for inflation to examine real land prices. The resulting two-century English farmland prices series contributes to farmland market analysis. Notwithstanding some concerns with long-run chain component heterogeneity, the combined series helps us to understand English average farmland price dynamics. As measured by the geometric mean, English land price real capital returns have been positive over more than two centuries. Farmland real price growth was 0.33 per cent annually from 1781 to 2013 and 0.71 per cent from 1801 to 2013. The series contributes to an understanding of land price dynamics.     

Urban proximity,demand for land and land shadow prices in Malawi

We assess the spatial and intertemporal variation in farmland prices using per hectare minimum willingness to accept (WTA) sales and rental (shadow) prices in Malawi. We use three rounds of nationally representative farm household panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS), collected in 2010, 2013 and 2016. The sample is split in quintiles based on distance from the nearest major city, building on the land valuation and transaction cost theory, and agrarian political economy perspectives on global and national land transactions. Generally, farmland shadow prices decrease with distance from urban areas. However, farmland shadow sales prices increased more sharply between 2010 and 2013 in rural areas (+100 % vs +30 % in urban proximity). The results indicate that the sharp increase in demand for large-scale land transfers following the sharp increase in energy and food prices also affected rural smallholders’ land valuation, even in remote rural areas of Malawi. Conversely, by 2016 land shadow sales prices were again, like in 2010, about three times as high in areas near urban centres compared to remote rural areas. Even though sales prices declined in remote rural areas from 2013 to 2016, rental prices remained high. Using farm household-level population pressure variable, we show that local population pressure is a driver of farmland shadow prices, indicating land scarcity challenges, growing demand for land, and poorly developed land markets. With increasing land scarcity, land markets are becoming more important and need to be factored in when formulating development policies that aim to improve access to land in both peri-urban and rural areas.     

Evaluating the benefits from transport infrastructure in agriculture: a hedonic analysis of farmland prices

Access to transport infrastructure generates a range of benefits to the agriculture sector; many of which are difficult to measure directly. In this study, we use hedonic regression analysis of farm‐level data to examine the contribution of transport infrastructure to the value of farmland traded between 2009 and 2011 through its impact on farm productivity. We show that a one per cent reduction in the cost of transportation between farms and ports leads to a 0.33 per cent increase in land prices, and there is no significant difference between rail and road transportation at the aggregate level. Moreover, the benefits generated by particular types of infrastructure services vary between industries and with farm size, suggesting there are multiple channels through which public infrastructure influences agricultural production. Our findings help to inform future investment decisions in Australia and in other countries by providing new evidence regarding the benefits of existing transport infrastructure.     

DYNAMIC INTERRELATED DEMAND FUNCTIONS FOR FACTORS OF PRODUCTION AND THE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION FUNCTION IN UNITED KINGDOM AGRICULTURE

Taking the price situation as given in product and factor markets, a non-linear differential equation model of gross output, employment, capital accumulation, and gross input for united Kingdom agriculture is derived by incorporating internal adjustment cost functions into the representative decision-maker's objective function, and estimated using a discrete approximation. The results are consistent with efficient use of resources, but further incentives for capital investment and a greater exodus of labour could upset this. Adjustment costs as estimated account for 2.6 per cent of the value of output; those associated with net investment for 1.8 per cent, and those associated with employment and gross input for 0.57 and 0.23 per cent respectively.     

土地价格与经济增长关系的实证分析——以东部地区为例

研究目的:根据国民收入核算理论,研究农村和城市居民消费、投资、政府支出以及净出口5个方面受土地价格波动的影响程度,解析土地价格与宏观经济间的关系,在东部地区进行实证研究。研究方法:计量经济法和模型分析法。研究结果:东部土地价格与消费、投资、政府支出和净出口之间存在显著的相关关系;东部土地价格每上升1个百分点,GDP将提高0.225个百分点。研究结论:东部土地价格上升对经济增长的贡献较大,土地成为经济增长的基本要素,政府应该高度重视土地价格在宏观经济调控中的基础性作用。     

人口规模、经济增长、资源禀赋与虚拟土地进口

[目的]分析虚拟土地进口的主要影响因素,为我国合理利用"两个市场"和"两种资源"提供决策依据。[方法]以1992~2014年的经验数据为依据,建立VAR模型,对我国人口规模、经济增长、资源禀赋与虚拟土地进口之间的关系进行实证分析。[结果]人口规模增长、经济发展以及人均耕地锐减是我国虚拟土地进口持续增长的驱动因素,三者对虚拟土地进口增长的驱动作用持续时间较长,且人口和人均耕地面积对虚拟土地进口的贡献呈不断增强趋势,但人均GDP对虚拟土地进口的贡献呈不断下降趋势。[结论]在未来一段时间内,虽然我国人口和人均GDP将继续保持双增长,但对促进虚拟土地进口增长的贡献较小,而人均耕地面积的不断减少对虚拟土地进口增长的贡献作用大,且贡献率有不断上升的趋势,耕地资源紧缺将成为我国虚拟土地进口不断攀升的主要影响因素。在当前严峻的资源环境形势下,保障耕地资源数量和质量、优化耕地资源空间配置、合理进口非粮土地密集型农产品、大力支持农业"走出去"等虚拟土地战略措施需要积极落实执行。     

Persistence of cattle ranching in the Brazilian Amazon: A spatial analysis of the rationale for beef production

Fed by demand for beef within Brazil and in global markets, the Brazilian herd grew from 147 million head of cattle in 1990 to ≈200 million in 2007. Eighty-three percent of this expansion occurred in the Amazon and this trend is expected to continue as the industry bounces back from a recent agricultural downturn. Intensification of the cattle industry has been suggested as one way to reduce pressure on forest margins and spare land for soybean or sugarcane production, and is the cornerstone of Brazil's plan for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. To this end, federal credit programs and research and development activities in Brazil are aligning to support intensification goals, but there is no guarantee that this push for intensification will decrease the demand for land at the forest margin and as result curb CO₂ emissions from deforestation. In this paper we use a spatially explicit rent model which incorporates the local effects of biophysical characteristics, infrastructure, land prices, and distance to markets and slaughterhouses to calculate 30-year Net Present Values (NPVs) of extensive cattle ranching across the Brazilian Amazon. We use the model to ask where extensive ranching is profitable and how land acquisition affects profitability. We estimate that between 17% and 80% of land in the Amazon would have moderate to high NPVs when ranched extensively if it were settled, i.e. if the rancher does not buy the land but acquires it through land grabbing. In addition, we estimate that between 9% and 13% of land in the Amazon is vulnerable to speculation (i.e. areas with positive NPVs only if land is settled and not purchased), which suggests that land speculation is an important driver of extensive ranching profitability, and may continue to be in the future. These results suggest that pro-intensification policies such as credit provision for improved pasture management and investment in more intensive production systems must be accompanied by implementation and enforcement of policies that alter the incentives to clear forest for pasture, discourage land speculation, and increase accountability for land management practices if intensification of the cattle sector is to deter new deforestation and displace production from low-yield, extensive cattle production systems in frontier regions of the Brazilian Amazon.     

The influence of proximity to market on bean producer prices in Nicaragua

Transport costs are an important determinant of smallholder welfare in developing countries. In particular, transport costs influence the prices that smallholders receive for their produce. We propose a simple way of quantifying this influence. Taking the example of bean producers in Nicaragua, we employ a hedonic price model to estimate the effects of a smallholder's proximity to markets on the prices that he/she receives, while controlling for other factors such as the volume and quality of beans sold. We find that on average each additional minute of travel time reduces farm gate prices by 2.5 cents per quintal. Based on these results, the annual income from bean sales of the average smallholder in our sample would increase by between 24 and 110 USD if travel time to markets were reduced by 25%. Estimates of this nature can make an important contribution to cost–benefit assessments of infrastructure investments.     

EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE CHINESE POLICIES ON THE WORLD GRAINS MARKET

The implications for the world grains market of a reduction in China's domestic absorption, and of the removal of its key manufacturing protection, are analysed in this paper. These policy changes are modelled both alone and together with grain self-sufficiency in China and with reduction in farm support in the US and EC. In themselves, the reduction in absorption and removal of manufacturing protection in China would have only marginal effects on the world grains market. If, however, China were to achieve grain self-sufficiency while adopting these macroeconomic and trade policies, world grain prices and trade would fall considerably. In contrast, even a partial removal of protection in the US and EC, simultaneously with the above Chinese macroeconomic and trade policy changes, could substantially increase world grain prices and trade. These positive effects would be considerably reduced if at the same time China were to become self-sufficient in grain.     

中国土地投资函数的参数估计

研究目的:推导中国的土地投资函数,解析土地价格对投资的影响因子,并以北京、上海、宁波、广州、天津、沈阳6城市为样本进行地区影响分析。研究方法:计量经济法,模型分析法。研究结果:土地价格每上升1个百分点,工业投资就会下降0.00765个百分点。上海、宁波、广州、天津4个城市的医药、电子和食品制造业投资对土地价格变化最为敏感。研究结论:土地价格对工业投资有一定影响,工业投资对土地价格的弹性有明显的行业和地区特点。     

Bioelectricity in Malaysia: economic feasibility,environmental and deforestation implications

We investigate the economic feasibility of bioelectricity production from biomass in Malaysia and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storage, agricultural prices, agricultural employment and deforestation. For this purpose, we develop a partial equilibrium model that projects agricultural prices, production, imports, exports, domestic consumption and land use in 5‐year increments between 2015 and 2065. Our results show that by 2030 biomass‐generated electricity can supply 36.5 per cent of the electricity generated in Malaysia, 16 times more than the 2016 electricity supply from biomass. Increased bioelectricity production from biomass will significantly reduce GHG emissions and will help Malaysia meet its commitment in the Paris Agreement to mitigate GHG emission by 45 per cent before 2030. Our modelling shows that biomass‐generated electricity creates a derived demand for waste biomass that expands the area of oil palm plantations. The expansion lowers agricultural prices, boosts agricultural employment and leads to some deforestation as landowners clear rainforest to plant oil palm trees. Nonetheless, the deforestation does not increase GHG emissions since GHG gains from bioelectricity significantly exceed GHG losses from deforestation.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE WITH STOCHASTIC TECHNOLOGY AND PRICES IN AUSTRALIA'S RURAL EXPORT INDUSTRIES

Risky output prices and production characterise Australian agriculture. Exports are vitally important, sometimes relying heavily on a particular market. In this study a model is developed to include explicitly both output price and technological risks as well as multiple output relationships. It is used to show that changes in US beef import policy generating a 10 per cent beef price fall could reduce Australian beef supply by 3.5 per cent and grazing industry net revenue by 8.4 per cent, despite some switching from beef production to other enterprises.     

How financial investment distorts food prices: evidence from U.S. grain markets

Convergence between commodity futures prices and the underlying physical assets at each contract's expiration date is a pivotal condition for the market's functioning. Between 2005 and 2010, convergence failed for several U.S. grain markets. This article presents a price pressure‐augmented commodity storage model that links the scale of nonconvergence to financial investment channeled through indices, which are traded in commodity futures markets. The model is empirically tested, using Markov regime‐switching regression analysis. Regression results strongly support the model's predicted link between index investment and the extent of nonconvergence for three grains traded at the Chicago Board of Trade: wheat, corn, and soybeans.     

Evaluating the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields

Because of tensions on fossil energy and phosphorus markets, the rise in fertilizer prices observed during the last decades may continue in the future, putting into question production pathways relying heavily on crop intensification. To evaluate how, in this context, economic choices may alter crop yields, we first construct different fertilizer price scenarios to 2050 based on an econometric relation with oil and gas prices. Other possible scenarios, such as the continuation of historical trends, are also considered. The resulting changes in fertilizer price range between +0.8% and +3.6% per year over the 2005–2050 period. These scenarios are tested in a global land‐use model incorporating an endogenous representation of the land–fertilizer substitution. We find that the supply‐side response to rising fertilizer prices could lower crop yields in 2050 from ?6% to ?13%, with a corresponding increase in global cropland area ranging between 100 and 240 Mha if the demand for food and nonfood products has to be met. The sensitivity of these results is tested with regard to assumptions on food consumption, change in potential yield and nutrient use efficiency.     

Extra-legal land market dynamics on a Guatemalan agricultural frontier: Implications for neoliberal land policies

Neoliberal land policies such as land administration seek to improve property rights and the efficiency of land markets to boost rural economic production. Quantitative studies of pre-existing land markets can help planners to tailor these policies to local conditions. In this article we examine an extra-legal land market currently being modernized by a World Bank-sponsored land administration effort. Specifically, we use a hedonic-type revealed preference model and household survey data to estimate the factors affecting extra-legal land prices along an agricultural frontier in Petén, Guatemala. Our model indicates that land value is significantly affected by land attributes including location, tenure status, presence of water, distance to roads, and distance to landowners’ homes, and that land prices in the northwestern Petén are estimated to have risen on average 26.5% per year between 1977 and 2000. We contend that this rate of increase provides a strong incentive for colonists to speculate in land rather than invest in state sanctioned property rights. We conclude that if frontier development programs, such as land administration, are to become attractive to settlers in Petén and elsewhere, they must compete favorably with economic incentives associated with land speculation, or alternatively, target landowners who are not interested in playing the land market.     

基于不同住房属性视角的土地供应规模对房价的影响

研究目的：基于住房消费品和投资品的双重属性视角分析住宅用地供应规模对房地产市场的差异化影响。研究 方法：理论分析、固定效应面板回归模型、门槛回归模型。研究结果：（1）上一年住宅用地供应面积增加 1% 可使当年 住房竣工面积显著增加 0.17%,弱于房地产投资资金对住房竣工面积所产生的 0.25% 的提升作用,该结果一定程度上 验证了住宅用地供应与住房供给之间存在生产函数渠道的影响路径;（2）基于实际房价与租金还原房价的偏离程度测 算,发现不同房地产市场投资热度下,住宅用地供应对房价影响存在双重门槛效应,门槛值分别为 2.05 和 2.92;（3）低 投资热度下,上一年住宅用地供应规模的增加可显著降低当年的房价,而高投资热度下则会起到推高房价的作用。研 究结论：住房作为消费品和投资品,存在不同的价格机制和供求规律。当住房市场以投资品属性为主导时,需求曲线 向上的刚性走势违反了一般的商品需求规律,供给曲线的右移将导致均衡价格越来越高。     

Subsistence Response to Market Shocks

Microeconomic models posit that transaction costs isolate subsistence producers from output market shocks. We integrate microeconomic models of many heterogeneous households into a general equilibrium model and show that supply on subsistence farms may respond, in apparently perverse ways, to changes in output market prices. Price shocks in markets for staple goods are transmitted to subsistence producers through interactions in factor markets. In the case presented, a decrease in the market price of maize reduces wages and land rents, stimulating maize production by subsistence households; however, real incomes of subsistence households fall.     

基于面板数据的省会城市居住地价的差异及成因研究

研究目的：基于2000 — 2006年面板数据,分析省会城市居住地价的差异、主要影响因子及其影响程度。研究方法：混合OLS估计方法、固定效应模型和随机效应模型。研究结果：（1）中国省会城市居住地价存在明显的时空差异,2005年及以后地价增长明显,且东部地区地价与中、西部地区的差距进一步拉大;（2）将城市间居住地价的影响因素分为全国宏观经济因素、区域整体差异因素和城市个体因素三个层面,并基于引致需求理论,构建更具实效性的城市居住地价影响因子体系;（3）建成区面积、城市人均GDP、国际旅游收入、2004年8月31日之后土地供应方式的重大转变（正向关系）和房地产开发投资（负向关系）对居住地价有显著影响。研究结论：面板数据模型是中国城市间地价问题定量分析的一个有效工具。