中国制造业技术投入与产出绩效的统计分析

为考察中国制造业技术进步情况,本文将中国26个制造业划分为高、中、低技术含量产业,并分析了各类产业的技术投入与产出绩效统计指标。分析结果表明,在技术投入方面中国制造业总体技术开发投入显著增加,高技术含量制造业的技术投入较其他产业明显占优,一些中低技术含量产业技术投入增长很快,表明有关产业已由单纯依靠劳动力成本竞争逐渐转向依靠技术进步进行市场竞争,但各产业普遍存在着人力投入增长速度落后于物力投入的情况。在技术产出方面,各制造产业的劳动生产率显著提高,高技术含量的产业相对其他产业更加突出,在产品创新方面高技术含量产业总体情况优于中等技术含量产业,后者又优于低技术含量产业,表明产品创新在高、中、低技术含量产业间的分布呈结构优化的趋势。不同产业对提高劳动生产率和产品创新两种市场竞争方式的侧重点有所不同。     

Import competition,employment and wage in US manufacturing: new evidence from multivariate panel cointegration analysis

This paper examines whether employment and wages in the US manufacturing sector exhibit any long-run relationship with import competition. The results based on a multivariate panel cointegration analysis of observations on 12 two-digit SIC manufacturing industries over the period from the third quarter of 1982 to the fourth quarter of 1992 indicate that US manufacturing employment does not bear a long-run relationship with import competition but manufacturing wage does. While the long-run correlation between import price and manufacturing wage is found to be sector sensitive panel estimation reveals a highly significant negative correlation between import price and manufacturing wage.     

Agglomeration Economies and Productivity Growth in Manufacturing Industry: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

This study examines the effect of agglomeration economies on productivity growth in Indonesian manufacturing industries during the first decade of this century. Productivity growth is measured at the firm level using the Färe‐Primont Productivity Index. Each firm's productivity growth is then regressed against a set of firm and industry characteristics, including three measures of agglomeration representing the effects of specialisation, diversity and competition. The results show evidence of a positive specialisation effect and a negative diversity effect for aggregate manufacturing and sub‐sectors. Furthermore, there are mixed effects across industries, suggesting that Porter's competition externalities stimulate firm productivity growth under some conditions but not others.     

基于SSM的主导产业选择基准——以南京市为例

在梳理了传统主导产业选择基准理论与偏离-份额分析方法基本原理的基础上,引入了一个主导产业选择基准:偏离份额基准.运用此基准,通过选取南京市1999年和2005年两个时间点的29个制造业产业部门为分析对象,以国家范围内的29个制造业产业部门的情况为参照,对南京市29个制造业产业部门进行份额偏离分量、结构偏离分量和竞争力偏离分量的综合比较分析,筛选出了最有可能成为主导产业的3个产业部门.对结果分析表明此选择基准在主导产业选择中具有基本客观的有效性.     

制造业劳动生产率变动及其源泉——基于中国2000-2007年规模以上制造业企业数据的估算

本文对中国2000-2007年制造业的劳动生产率情况进行了全面测算。结果表明,自进入21世纪以来,制造业总体劳动生产率增长速度很快,这一快速增长主要是由技术进步而非要素投入驱动的。劳动生产率的快速提高源自劳动密集型产业自身生产率的进步,并没有从产业结构转换上获取劳动生产率的提高。依赖劳动密集型产业的东部沿海地区劳动生产率的增长已有所放缓,而后起的中西部地区依赖资本密集型产业则显现出强劲的发展势头。由此看来,依赖劳动密集型产业的发展来实现经济发展的源泉已逐渐耗尽,我国制造业未来的发展和劳动生产率的提高需要产业结构的升级和调整。     

创新对我国装备制造业市场势力影响的动态研究

市场势力是竞争力的一种表现形式,拥有较高的市场势力可以扭转市场竞争弱势地位,促进产业持续发展。我国装备制造业的市场势力程度可采用市场集中度指标来测算。选取中国产业分析平台提供的4位数产业作为研究样本的测算结果表明,我国装备制造业市场势力总体处于低集中水平,7个子行业中通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业和仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业的市场集中度最高,行业内大企业的规模优势相对明显。通过向量自回归模型分析了创新活动对我国装备制造业市场势力的影响。结果表明,在短时期内,创新对装备制造业的影响效果不明显,在中长时期,创新对装备制造业市场势力是起促进作用的。     

全球制造业工资停滞之谜*——来自进口中间产品质量视角的经验证据

本文从快速增长的中间产品贸易及其质量视角研究了全球制造业工资停滞现象。首先，基于DS垄断竞争框架和Koch & Smolka(2019)的研究，本文重新构建开放条件下的工资决定模型，发现进口中间产品质量影响各国劳动工资。其次，借鉴Feenstra & Romalis(2014)的研究，本文构建全新的测度产品—行业—国家层面进口中间产品质量GEKS 指数法，估算1995—2011年37个国家从248个出口市场进口的制造业四位码中间产品质量指数，发现全球制造业进口中间产品质量上升趋势明显但分化严重，中等和低等收入国家质量指数持续上升，高等收入国家质量指数持续下降。最后，本文从跨国—行业层面定量识别进口中间产品质量对进口国制造业工资的具体影响，发现：(1)进口中间产品质量对全球制造业的劳动工资有显著负向影响，对中等收入国家、中级技术密集型行业、高技能劳动者以及进口矿物类中间产品制造业的工资降低效应最大；(2)进口中间产品质量通过“就业破坏效应”和“研发激励效应”两种机制造成全球制造业工资下降；(3)进口中间产品质量变化造成制造业工资下降是全球化中的市场性经济规律和暂时性“全球冲击波”。上述发现解释了全球制造业工资停滞之谜，并启示各国须尊重全球化的市场规律，加强国际合作，共同应对冲击，提高民众福祉，携手共建人类命运共同体。     

THE DETERMINANTS OF THE INTER-INDUSTRY PATTERN OF DIVERSIFICATION BY U.K. MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES*

Evidence of the diversity of output of larger U.K. manufacturing enterprises’in 1958, 1963 and 1968 is provided in the Reports on the Census of Production. The Censuses show that between 1958 and 1968 diversification was a significant and general trend in manufacturing industries and an important element in the growth of firms during the period. Moreover diversification seems to be part of a longer term trend in U.K. industry and part of the typical development pattern of the large firm. A theory of the firm's diversification decision is proposed and from this theory predictions are made of the structural features both of a firm's primary industry and of outside industries which are likely to encourage diversification from the one industry to the other. The power of the model in explaining the pattern of diversification between SIC manufacturing orders in the period 1963–68 is weak, due in part to the wide variety of factors influencing diversification and to the aggregated form of the data. Nevertheless, the results show the importance of research and development effort in encouraging diversification and the stimulus to diversification given by profitability and risk in firms’primary industries and high rates of output growth in outside industries. While the findings offer no clear conclusions regarding the impact of diversification upon economic performance, the results are consistent with the propositions that (i) diversification encourages technical progress in industry and (ii) diversification increases the efficiency with which resources are allocated between industries.     

Competition and productivity growth in South Africa

This article shows that mark‐ups are significantly higher in South African manufacturing industries than they are in corresponding industries worldwide. We test for the consequences of this low‐level of product market competition on productivity growth. The results of the paper are that high mark‐ups have a large negative impact on productivity growth in South African manufacturing industry. Our results are robust to three different data sources, two alternative measures of productivity growth, and three distinct measures of the mark‐up. Controlling for potential endogeneity of regressors does not eliminate the findings.     

集聚经济一定有利于产业国际化吗——基于中国省域制造业的实证分析

本文运用我国29个省份制造业19个二位数行业2005—2008年的面板数据实证分析了产业集聚效应对产业国际化的影响以及这一影响与行业特性、区域特性的关系。研究结果显示:从总体样本来看,专业化经济对产业国际化具有显著正影响;而竞争效应和多样化集聚效应对产业国际化具有负效应。不同行业的影响方向、大小及机理与行业特性高度相关;专业化集聚对资本密集型产业和高技术密集型产业国际化的正效应要大于劳动密集和中低技术密集型产业,劳动密集型产业和中低技术密集型产业的集聚已经出现一定程度的劳动拥挤效应。     

Interrelationship among foreign presence,domestic sales and export intensity in Chinese manufacturing industries

Using panel data on six Chinese manufacturing industries over the period 2005–2007, this article explores the interrelationship among foreign presence, domestic sales and export intensity of local firms. We find that the domestic sales and exports are complementary for local firms in China’s pharmaceutical industry, whereas in the case of the textile, transportation equipment, beverage, communication equipment and general equipment manufacturing industries, domestic sales and exports are substitutes. An increase in the average domestic sales increases foreign presence in all industries. The same applies to an increase in the average export intensity. An increase in the level of competition in China’s textile industry increases the export intensity as well as domestic sales of local textile firms. However, an increase in the level of competition in the pharmaceutical industry leads to a very large decrease in export intensity of local pharmaceutical firms. In the case of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry, an increase in the level of competition decreases domestic sales of local firms. Furthermore, an increase in the firm size increases domestic sales of Chinese firms in all six manufacturing industries.     

中国出口厂商依市定价行为研究*

本文从总体、行业以及地域三个层面对我国出口厂商的依市定价行为进行实证研究。结果表明,就总体层面而言,我国出口厂商确实存在依市定价行为。而从行业层面的实证结果看,不同行业出口厂商依市定价行为之间差异较大。其中资源密集型行业,如矿产品业、木制品行业的出口厂商依市定价程度最弱,定价能力较强;技术及资本密集型且加工程度较高的行业,如机电制造业、运输设备制造业的依市定价程度次之;劳动密集型且加工程度较低的行业,如橡胶、塑料制造业的出口厂商依市定价程度最高,定价能力最弱。地域层面的实证结果表明,我国出口厂商在对不同贸易伙伴出口时的依市定价行为同样存在差异,且对主要贸易伙伴的依市定价程度相对其他非主要贸易伙伴较弱。     

银行竞争对制造业上市公司融资约束的影响研究

本文研究了银行竞争程度的变动对制造业上市公司融资约束大小的影响。本文将我国制造业A股上市公司作为样本,建立多元回归模型验证银行竞争形势的加剧是否会影响企业所面临的融资约束。本文认为制造业A股上市公司面临显著的融资约束,而且银行竞争与企业所面临的融资约束之间呈现U型关系,即随着银行竞争的加剧,融资约束呈现先放松后收紧的趋势。     

Investment climate,outward orientation and manufacturing firm productivity: new empirical evidence

Drawing on the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we revisit the link between firm-level investment climate and productive performance for a panel of enterprises surveyed twice in time in 70 developing countries and 11 manufacturing industries. We take advantage of the time dimension available for an increasing number of countries to tackle the endogeneity issue stressed in previous studies. We also use pertinent econometric techniques to address other biases inherent in the data (e.g.measurement errors, missing observations and multicollinearity). Our results reinforce previous findings by validating, with a larger than usual sample of countries and industries, the importance of a larger set of environment variables. We show that infrastructure quality, information & communication technologies, skills and experience of the labour force, cost of and access to financing, security and political stability, competition and government relation contribute to firms’ and countries’ performances gap. The empirical analysis also illustrates that firms which choose an outward orientation have higher productivity level. Nevertheless, outward oriented enterprises are more sensitive to investment climate limitations. These findings have important policy implications by showing which dimensions of the business environment, in which industry, could help manufacturing firms to be more competitive in the present context of increasing globalization.     

智能制造业创新产出：政府补助与市场竞争是否协同助力

基于2015—2019年中国智能制造行业上市公司数据，探讨政府补助与市场竞争对创新产出的协同作用，研究不同产业类别、不同市场竞争环境以及不同区域下政府补助的异质性效果。结果表明，政府补助和市场竞争对企业创新产出均有显著激励作用，市场竞争正向调节政府补助与企业创新产出的关系；政府补助对智能制造四大行业的创新产出均具有正向激励效应，其中对高端装备和新材料产业的促进作用更显著；在高市场竞争环境下，政府补助对高质量创新产出的促进作用更加显著；分区域看，东、中部地区政府补助对企业创新产出的促进作用更显著，且东部地区政府补助与市场竞争的协同促进作用更强，中部地区次之，西部地区较弱。结论对政府制定智能制造业补助政策、完善创新市场环境、促进政府与市场发挥协同创新作用等具有参考价值。     

The dynamics of market structure and firm-level adjustment to India's pro-market economic liberalizing reforms, 1988–2006: A Time Varying Panel Smooth Transition Regression (TV-PSTR) approach

This paper for the first time employs the Time Varying Panel Smooth Transition Regression (TV-PSTR) approach to model the dynamic adjustments of firms and the evolution of industrial structure in the bigger setting of decades against the backdrop of India's dramatic liberalizing reform starting from 1991. Using Indian manufacturing firm data, it finds that the transition of market structure and productivity after liberalization did follow a smooth transition process. Instead of the previously assumed instantaneous ‘big-bang’ shift just after reforms, it actually took years for the Indian manufacturing industries start to react to the reforms, and the transitional impact of reforms took approximately four to eight years to complete. There is strong evidence of increased competition after the transition, with shrinked returns to scale (RTS) in most industries except for leather and chemical industries. The results on total factor productivity (TFP) are mixed: most import-competing industries, which suffer most from the shrinking of market size experienced no change or decreasing TFP growth; whereas the export-oriented industry, as the industry which benefits most from economy of scale, enjoyed a huge TFP growth following the reforms.     

Import Competition and Employment in Japan: Plant Startup, Shutdown and Product Changes

This paper examines the relationship between import competition and employment during and after the recent Bubble period in Japan. Gross job flow data are combined with import data for 334 four-digit manufacturing industries. The estimates demonstrate that various modes of employment adjustment respond differently to changes in import prices. Job creation/destruction associated with plant startups/shutdowns was significantly sens-itive to import competition. Among plants continuously operating, job creation during the Bubble boom by plants that altered their product mix across industries was responsive to import price fluctuations, while job flows at plants that remained within the same industries were not.     

国家制造业创新中心设立能否助推先进制造业发展——基于湖北省的准自然实验

工信部在全国范围内部署国家制造业创新中心,是推动先进制造业创新发展的重要举措,由此引发对该政策效果的讨论。为评估国家制造业创新中心设立对相应领域的促进效应,以湖北为典型对象展开事件研究设计,基于2016—2019年季度省际面板数据,采用双重差分法识别国家制造业创新中心设立对湖北省先进制造业的推动效果。结果表明,国家制造业创新中心设立的确能显著推动所处领域的当地产业发展。进一步检验发现,通过创新投入扩张的中介机制,该政策对集成电路制造业产出的促进效应最大,其次是金属冶炼设备和金属切削加工业。基于创新载体功能定位,发现创新中心建设能有效激励创新活动,服务于区域内先进制造业核心产业集群发展。     

Industry characteristics,spatial competition and industrial concentration – evidence from China

We study the determinants of a geographic concentration of manufacturing industries in a spatial competition framework. Based on a panel data set of China during 1995–2003, we have the following findings. First, some traditional comparative advantages in production factors such as labor endowment are becoming the major factors that prevent the industrial concentration. Second, the major factors that promote geographic manufacturing concentration are technology spillover and industry linkage. Third, the effect of economy of scale on manufacturing concentration is significant, but the direction depends on how the concentration is measured.     

Competition and Industry Performance: A Panel VAR Analysis in Indian Manufacturing Sector

This study tries to investigate the relationship between competition and performance in a dynamic framework in the post liberalisation era with the help of Structure Conduct Performance paradigm. By employing panel VAR estimation procedure on 23 Indian manufacturing industries that comprise of BSE listed manufacturing firms, the study finds that Structure Conduct Performance paradigm does not always hold true in Indian manufacturing scenario in the post liberalisation period. This might be because with the introduction of competition in the market, the larger firms are still practising anticompetitive strategies to have a control over the market. The relationship between performance and conduct indicates that competition has not fully succeeded in eliminating the imperfections from the market.