投资中介化、风险转嫁与资产泡沫

随着金融市场的发展，越来越多的投资者通过机构投资者等金融中介间接参与金融市场投资。投资者和金融中介之间的委托代理问题以及由此产生的风险转嫁倾向使得金融中介的投资决策并不总是以投资者的利益最大化为目标。金融中介的风险转移倾向容易导致风险资产的均衡价格偏离其基础价值，引起资产泡沫的产生。     

资金流量视角下的金融发展与实体经济关系研究

本文基于国家统计局公布的标准式资金流量表,根据国民经济账户核算原理,借助国际主流方法,编制2010-2017年的五部门金融资金流量矩阵表,以定性与定量相结合的方法,分析了2010-2017年中国金融发展情况。本文认为:2010年以来我国金融资金流量总规模扩大,住户和政府部门是主要的净投资部门,金融机构与企业是金融市场的主力,政府部门在金融市场中的重要性逐步加强,但金融发展中存在一些问题弱化了其对实体经济的支持功效。     

金融投资中介化及其对市场的影响

导言 20世纪70年代以来,金融市场上机构投资者迅速崛起,并成为市场的投资主体.越来越多的投资者通过机构投资者等金融中介间接地参与金融市场投资.如果我们把银行储蓄理解成投资者通过银行的间接投资,那么整个金融体系实际上出现了投资中介化的趋势1,也就是说,投资者特别是家庭部门直接参与的金融投资是相当有限,整个金融体系的投资实际上是以金融中介的代理投资为主.显然,与直接投资相比,金融中介的代理投资使得投资者要面临与金融中介之间由于责任不对等、信息不对称和激励不相容所导致的委托代理问题(AgencyProblems).需要特别强调的是,金融投资中介化及其引发的委托代理问题已经或正在深刻地影响着整个金融市场的运行和秩序.     

浅析商业银行信贷资产转让

信贷资产转让是国内商业银行近年发展起来的一项资产业务创新,是商业银行金融创新的一个亮点。它是指金融机构（如银行、信托投资公司、资产管理公司、财务公司等）之间,根据协议约定转让在其经营范围内、自主、合规发放尚未到期信贷资产的融资业务。其中,金融机构将其持有的信贷资产出售给其他金融机构并一次融入资金被称为信贷资产出让业务;金融机构受让其他金融机构出售的信贷资产并融出资金被称为信贷资产受让业务。     

长三角金融合作与区域经济发展

金融合作与区域经济发展密切相关。长三角金融合作已取得初步成果,但是在资金跨区域流动、金融机构互设、金融市场融合以及金融与经济协调发展等方面仍存在若干问题。应重新审视长三角金融合作模式,建立市场主体合作的成本——收益安排机制,充分发挥中心城市的龙头作用,加强金融机构之间的合作,进一步推动货币资金的跨地区流动,建立区域性金融市场和长三角地区的金融信息共享机制,实现金融合作与区域经济的协调发展。     

欠发达地区准金融机构发展情况调查--以甘肃省定西市为例

近年来,随着融资需求多元化的发展,准金融机构应运而生、发展迅速,补充了正规金融机构不能满足的金融市场需求,但也相伴而生了各种投机和违规行为,潜在金融风险不断增大,给金融系统的稳定和安全带来了不客忽视的影响,也给金融监管提出了新的挑战。本文从定西市准金融机构发展现状出发,分析欠发达地区准金融机构发展中存在的问题并提出相关政策建议。     

金融体系与储蓄 投资

金融乃货币和资金融通之简称。从现代商品经济现实看,分融是一个复杂系统及其运动过程。一个完整的金融体系包括如下基本构成要素:(1) 金融活动的组织者或称为金融服务的提供者——金融机构,(2) 金融活动的客体或载体——金融工具;(3) 金融活动关系总和或场所——金融市场。不同的金融机构和金融工具的各种组合及金融市场构成,形成了不同的金融休系。美同经济学家戈德史密斯认为:“各种金融工具和金融机构的形式、性     

中国建设银行与中国进出口银行签署《全面合作协议》

2月18日,中国建设银行与中国进出口银行举行《全面合作协议》签约仪式,双方将在结算代理、金融市场、公司金融、海外业务、中小企业服务等领域进行合作,探索政策性金融机构与商业银行合作的新路径。     

论我国银行业开放与提高效率的关系

一、衡量银行业效率的指标 在现代金融经济条件下,金融是指资金融通,金融效率就是资金融通的效率.它是指在金融市场上,在健康的金融监督管理体制下和有效的金融调节机制下,由金融机构作为金融中介或者由融资双方或多方在市场服务体系下,以尽可能的成本(机会成本和交易成本),将有限的金融资源(货币和货币资本)进行最优培植以实现其最有效利用.     

商业银行规模与中小企业信贷融资问题的研究综述

优化的突破口在于整体金融环境改善背景下大型银行内部组织结构调整与中小型银行体系创新性建设并进。引言中小企业信贷融资困境是一个世界性难题。现代经济学研究表明,信息不对称是制约经济运行方式和经济效率的基本问题,这同样适用于分析中小企业信贷融资难的一般性原因。借贷关系的本质是一个委托代理问题,正规金融机构将资金借给中小企业的过程中存在缺乏了解借款人相关可靠信息、如何使用资金及努力程度、可能采取策略性赖账措施等信息不对称问题。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…