银企关系对制造业中小企业贷款利率的影响研究——来自江苏徐州和广西柳州典型样本的证据

通过对江苏徐州和广西柳州典型样本的调研发现,在中小企业贷款中,实际上存在着"绑定效应",当中小企业在银行的贷款占自己资金缺口的比重较大时,出于风险控制和攫取更多剩余的目的,银行会提高贷款利率;当中小企业的融资渠道较多时,银行贷款利率反而因为中小企业的融资需求旺盛而提高。用中小企业与银行的合作年限、中小企业在该银行贷款比重等进行衡量的银企关系深度越强,中小企业银行贷款利率反而越高,而用中小企业在银行开办的其他业务数量来衡量的银企关系的广度越强,中小企业贷款的利率则会越低。     

Implications of Shifting Retail Market Shares for Loan Monitoring in a Dominant‐Bank Model

This study utilizes a dominant‐bank model to investigate whether an increase in retail loan and deposit‐market concentration increases the incentives for both dominant and fringe banks to monitor their loans and thereby improve the quality of their loan portfolios. It shows that the effects on banks' incentives to engage in monitoring aimed at eliminating loan default losses in response to increased concentration of retail market shares of loans and deposits depend critically on whether the banks' asset and liability choices are interdependent. When the asset and liability decisions of both dominant and fringe banks are independent, a shift in market shares in favor of the dominant bank generates a straightforward increase in the incentives of all banks to monitor their loans. Under portfolio interdependence, the effects on monitoring outcomes at dominant banks and at banks within the competitive fringe depend on more complicated configurations of parameters. This fact helps explain mixed empirical evidence on the relationships between bank competition and measures of bank risk and soundness.     

Does branch network size influence positively the management performance of Japanese regional banks?

This article investigates whether branch network expansions by Japanese regional banks influence their management performances positively at a time when management environments surrounding regional financial institutions have become increasingly severe due to the population decreases and shrinkage of regional economies. Specifically, the effects of numbers of regional bank branches on their credit businesses and profits are empirically examined. The results indicated that regional banks with more branches can increase their loans and bills discounted as well as their small and mid-sized enterprises loans and bills discounted. Thus, establishing more branches is effective in increasing the total sum of loans and bills discounted by each bank because regional banks with many branches can make contact with more customers. On the other hand, return on assets and return on equity of regional banks with more branches were found to be lower. Therefore, regarding the cost performance of regional banks, establishing too many branches and maintaining branch networks that are too large can have negative effects on regional banks.     

Performance of Thailand banks after the 1997 East Asian financial crisis

The performance of commercial banks and government-owned specialized banks in Thailand is estimated after the 1997 East Asian financial crisis. Commercial banks exhibit increasing returns to scale, whereas government-owned specialized banks exhibit decreasing returns to scale, implying further increases in bank size and market concentration in the commercial bank sector but not for government specialized banks. Cost inefficiency varies by bank and is a function of the ratio of nonperforming loans (NPLs) to total loans, equity to total assets and liquid assets to total assets, as well as the number of branches. On average, banks with fewer NPLs, that are well capitalized and with adequate liquidity are efficient. Thus, stricter rules to regulate credit risk management and ensure capital and liquidity adequacy would enhance efficiency in the banking sector. Although estimated input substitutability appears to be low, labour and loanable fund are substitutes. However, labour and physical capital as well as physical and loanable funds are complements in commercial banks. All the three inputs of labour, physical capital and loanable funds are substitutes for the government specialized banks.     

中国银行业系统性风险研究*——宏观审慎视角下的三个压力测试

本文在传统网络模型中加入去杠杆—降价抛售机制,研究以下两类宏观经济冲击对银行体系系统性风险的影响。从房地产贷款违约压力测试看,房地产贷款违约引起的传染风险是系统性风险的重要来源;传染损失比重和去杠杆次数结果则表明,2007年我国银行面临的传染风险最高,之后呈现快速下降的趋势;参数敏感性结果表明,网络模型中去杠杆、降价抛售以及破产对传染风险的相对重要性依次递减。从地方政府融资平台贷款违约压力测试看,大型商业银行受平台贷款违约的影响小于股份制和城市商业银行。此外,平台贷款违约概率存在阈值,在阈值之上银行损失和倒闭急剧攀升。基于银行倒闭压力测试,量化出本文的网络模型相对于传统网络模型的优越性。本文还发现中国金融体系的系统重要性与系统脆弱性指标的“错配”对于维持金融体系稳定非常关键。     

Creditor passivity: The effects of bank competition and institutions on the strategic use of bankruptcy filings

In transition countries, banks often fail to take action against loan defaulters. Using a model of the bank–firm relationship, we study the trade-off a bank faces when having defaulting firms declared bankrupt. First, the bank receives a payoff if a firm is liquidated. Second, it provides information about a firm’s type to its competitors. Therefore, asymmetric information between banks is reduced, and bank competition intensifies. We find that the better the institutions and the more competitive the banking sector, the greater the bank’s incentive to bankrupt defaulting firms. This makes information between banks less asymmetric and thus leads to lower interest rates and increases the probability that all banks offer loans.     

Why do bank loans react with a delay to shifts in interest rates? A bank capital explanation

We advance an explanation for the delay in the response of the volume of bank loans to innovations in monetary policy. Capital requirements may effectively tie the evolution of bank credit to the evolution of bank equity. By uncovering a new mechanism by which shifts in interest rates affect the profitability of the banking sector, and in turn its equity, we find that the resulting movements in the amount of aggregate loans are consistent with the regularities observed in the data.     

Market entry,privatization and bank performance in transition1

This paper examines how market entry and privatization have affected the margins and marginal costs of banks in the post‐communist transition. We estimate bank revenue and cost functions, allowing the estimated parameters to change over time. In the first sub‐period (1995–98), we find that privatized banks earned higher margins than other banks, while foreign start‐ups had lower marginal costs. In the third sub‐period (2002–2004), foreign banks remained low marginal cost service providers, while privatized domestic banks had the widest margins. Subtracting marginal costs from margins to calculate mark‐ups, an indication of demand for services, shows that initially privatized banks had the largest mark‐ups. However, by the third sub‐period, differences among private banks diminished. In comparison to private banks, state banks persistently under‐performed in controlling costs and attracting demand. Our evidence therefore indicates that foreign bank entry promoted lower costs and that privatization and market entry encouraged more demand for services.     

The effect of US stress tests on monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets

This paper explores the transmission of US monetary policy through US banks to emerging market economies (EMEs) and the role that stress tests play in this transmission. Data on US banks’ monthly commercial and industrial loan originations shows that: (a) US bank lending to EMEs was sensitive to domestic monetary policy changes during the zero‐lower bound period. (b) Effects of monetary easing were heterogeneous across banks and depended on banks’ stress test results, a proxy for their capital strength. Only banks that comfortably passed the stress tests issued more loans to EME borrowers. (c) Effects of monetary tightening were more similar across banks. (d) Banks shifted their lending to safer borrowers within EMEs in response to monetary easing, leaving the risk of their overall loan books unchanged. These results support the hypothesis that bank capital affects the transmission of easier monetary policy, including across borders. We conjecture that bank lending to EMEs during the zero‐lower bound period would have been even higher had the United States not introduced stress tests for their banks.     

外资银行进入模式选择——考虑退出期权

利用实物期权方法,在考虑未来退出灵活性的情况下,分析了外资银行对进入中国市场模式的选择。研究结果表明:随着市场波动率和外资银行退出收益率的增加,外资银行选择少数股权进入模式时的退出价值大于选择独立发展进入模式时的退出期权价值,因此外资银行倾向于选择少数股权进入;随着外资银行经营效率的提高和中资银行本土化优势的减弱,外资银行倾向于选择独立发展模式进入。     

Bank ownership type and temporal evolution of long‐term bank funding in the period 2005–2017

This study uses a large panel dataset of Western European banks to examine the determinants of bank funding stability. Banks are divided into three categories by bank ownership type; the ownership types in this study are commercial banks, cooperative banks and savings banks. Three sources of stable bank funding are investigated: customer deposits, equity, and long‐term liabilities. Furthermore, the sum of these funding components is used as a proxy variable for a bank's total available stable funding (ASF). A special focus is on the temporal evolution of these funding types. The regression results show that commercial banks’ funding became much more stable in the period 2005–2017. However, that funding remains, on average, less stable than does cooperative and savings banks’ funding. In addition, funding stability has remained at the pre‐crisis level in cooperative and savings banks, despite a steep dip in cooperative banks’ ASF during the sovereign debt crisis. Furthermore, banks substantially decreased financing from long‐term liabilities after the financial crisis, replacing it with customer deposits and equity.     

The relevance of supply shocks for inflation: the spanish case

A retrenchment in crossborder credit is under way, the product of both market forces and political pressure on international banks to lend at home (Economist, 2009). In addition, banks, particularly the largest, have also dramatically expanded their retail banking operations over the past few years (Hirtle and Stiroh, 2007). Our goal, in this article, is to study the effects of default risk on equity returns through bank interest margin management under a renewed focus on domestic retail banking, a trend often attributed to the stability of banking activities. Specifically, this article explores the determinants of optimal bank interest margins based on an option-based firm-theoretical model with multiple sources of structural breaks due to political pressure. The model demonstrates how capital regulation and political pressure on foreign lending return and risk conditions jointly determine the optimal bank interest margin decision. We show that a more stringent capital requirement is linked with lower equity return, but higher default risk of the bank in the return to domestic retail banking. An increased focus on the political pressure on foreign lending return is linked with higher equity return and default risk of the bank. It is also showed that an increased focus on the political pressure on foreign lending risk decreases the bank's equity return and default risk. We conclude that the return to domestic retail banking may be a relatively stable activity when the political pressure decision impacts only the expected risk of the bank's foreign lending and not the return.     

问询函监管与银行信贷决策的改善*

近年来,证券交易所推行的问询函监管逐渐成为保障和改善上市公司信息披露质量的重要机制,其实施效果自然成为监管者和学者关注的焦点。本文从银行的角度研究问询函监管对外部利益相关者的溢出效应,具体考察问询函监管对银行信贷决策的影响。研究发现,在公司被出具问询函后,银行的贷款利率显著更高,贷款期限显著更短,银行贷款要求提供担保的可能性和比例更高。进一步研究发现,当公司处于信息风险和信用风险相对较高的情境中,或银行对信息风险和信用风险较为关注的情况下,银行贷款利率上升幅度更加显著,不过,贷款期限、担保要求等非价格条款并没有显著差异。同时,问询函对银行信贷决策的影响在银企之间存在较强的信息不对称时更加显著。最后,本文发现公司收到问询函以后,分析师预测分歧度显著提高,这表明信息风险是问询函监管影响银行信贷决策的一个可能渠道。     

商业银行相对风险比较研究——来自中国14家商业银行2001-2004年的经验证据

为寻找中国商业银行整体运行中的薄弱环节,本文基于所构建的风险评价指标体系及风险比较模型,对中国14家主要商业银行2001～2004年的相对风险水平进行了对比分析.研究发现,依照相对风险程度的高低,14家商业银行可以划分为三个层次,第一层次,由华夏银行、招商银行、民生银行及中国银行所构成,安全性较高;而中国农业银行、中国工商银行和广东发展银行则隶属于风险最高的第三层次,是中国银行业安全的薄弱环节.由于不良贷款率、盈利能力和资产的流动性比率是影响商业银行风险状况的主要因素,因此从这三个方面入手,改善位于第三层次商业银行的风险状况,是提高中国银行业整体安全性的关键,应该成为当前银行业改革的重点.     

Are Islamic Banks More Resilient During Financial Panics?

Islamic banking is one of the fastest growing segments of the financial sector in developing countries. Rapid growth of this segment is accompanied with claims about its relative resilience to financial crises as compared to conventional banking. However, little empirical evidence is available to support such claims. Using data from Pakistan, where Islamic and conventional banks co‐exist, we compare the behaviour of Islamic and conventional banks during a financial panic. Our results show that Islamic bank branches are less prone to deposit withdrawals during financial panics, both unconditionally and after controlling for bank characteristics. The Islamic branches of banks that have both Islamic and conventional operations tend to attract (rather than lose) deposits during panics, which suggests a role for religious branding. We also find that Islamic bank branches grant more loans during financial panics and that their lending decisions are less sensitive to changes in deposits. Our findings suggest that greater financial inclusion of faith‐based groups may enhance the stability of the banking system.     

银行风险、贷款规模与法律保护水平

本文根据更加全面的中国银行业数据,首先研究了法律保护水平和银行风险(Z值)之间的关系;其次,分析了影响银行风险的中间途径,研究了法律保护水平和贷款规模之间的关系;最后,对法律保护水平和银行风险(Z值)各组成部分之间的关系进行了讨论。研究发现,法律保护水平越高(尤其是对知识产权的保护),银行信贷规模越大,银行经营业绩也越高,但银行的资本充足率较低,最终导致银行风险上升(Z值较低)。本文结论说明:法律制度的建设和完善以及加强对银行资本的监管等具有重要意义。     

INTERNATIONAL CREDIT CHANNEL OF MONETARY POLICY: AN EMPIRICAL NOTE

A longstanding macroeconomic issue is how monetary policy affects the real economy. There are economists placing an emphasis on the role of bank lending in monetary transmission. Their view, called the credit view, is that a monetary tightening shifts the supply schedule of bank loans left, thereby forcing bank‐dependent borrowers to cut back on expenditures. In the literature, the credit view is typically studied in a closed‐economy context. In reality, however, banks make international loans through their overseas branches and subsidiaries. This suggests that the credit view should be studied in an open‐economy context. This paper proposes the international credit view: a monetary‐policy shock originated in one country propagates to another through banks’ reallocation of funds between the two countries. For testing the hypothesis, Australia and New Zealand provide an excellent case to study. This is because Australian‐owned banks dominate the banking market in New Zealand. This paper aims to test the international credit view within a framework of vector auto‐regression models. A significant and robust finding is that the supply schedule of loans shifts left in New Zealand after a monetary tightening in Australia.     

货币政策对金融生态的影响机理及实证检验——基于上市商业银行面板数据的分析

传统的货币理论忽视了货币政策对银行风险承担及金融生态的影响,文章从商业银行的微观视角出发研究了货币政策对金融生态的影响机理。理论层面,金融生态与货币政策制度供给、传导机制和有效性相互关联,货币政策则通过资产价格或估值机制、收入及现金流机制、追求收益机制、杠杆调整机制、道德风险机制和风险转移机制影响商业银行的风险承担;实证层面,构建了货币政策影响商业银行信贷投放和风险承担的数理模型,选取国有和股份制两类共12家上市商业银行2008-2013年的面板数据进行固定效应模型实证检验。结果表明,宽松货币政策导致商业银行的信贷投放规模增加、风险承担意愿增强,有利于优化金融生态,反之则反是;国有商业银行对货币政策变化更敏感,而股份制商业银行对金融生态更敏感。因此,在我国宏观经济管理中,需要货币政策与宏观审慎政策相互协调配合。     

To engage or not to engage in corporate social responsibility: Empirical evidence from global banking sector

Whether or not banks should engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities is controversial because of the concomitant high cost even if banks could enjoy the benefits of a higher income as a result of their good reputation. Faced with this dilemma, bank managers are hesitant to engage in CSR. This study pursues this issue by examining whether or not banks engaging in CSR can bring profits and reduce non-performing loans. We apply three novel estimation methods to obtain the unbiased and full-blown CSR effect. The first two methods are matching methods, namely, conventional propensity score matching method and nearest-neighbor variance bias-corrected matching method (nn-VBC). The third method is Heckman's two-step method in switching regression. Regardless of the methods used, CSR banks overwhelmingly outperform non-CSR banks in terms of return on assets and return on equity. Our study offers policy suggestions for both government regulators and bank managers.     

A QUEST FOR UNFETTERED CREDIT: HOW MONETARY POLICY DRIVES CREDIT RISK TRANSFER OF STRUCTURED FINANCE PRODUCTS

This study examines the effects of monetary policy contractions on bank loans to households and firms and instruments in three different credit risk transfer (CRT) capital markets over two separate time periods (1995–2006 and 2007–2015). The findings show that in both periods, banks decrease business lending but increase lending to consumers through a combination of mortgage, auto, credit card, and student loans from more liquidity produced by consumer‐related CRT activity. Additional results reveal relative CRT movements toward securitized mortgages from bank mortgage debt over both periods and toward securitized and insured business loans from bank business debt in the latter period, which suggest vulnerabilities among interconnected credit markets. (JEL E44, E51, G21, G23)