Economic growth,business cycles and products variety: exploring the role of demand satiety

The paper presents a model of economic growth based on a population of heterogeneous and interacting agents. This model succeeds to generate - in a single framework - GDP growth and cycles as well as product life cycles. Contrary to the existing literature, we find that an increasing variety of consumer goods is not a necessary condition for sustaining the economic growth when consumers are subject to satiation. Indeed, intensive creative-destruction - that is an intensive process of sectors births and deaths - appears to be a more powerful growth engine. We also find that changing consumers’ satiety thresholds is likely to affect the nature of the correlation between the cyclical components of macroeconomic time series.     

益贫式增长的内涵及其实现路径：一个文献综述

益贫式增长是对穷人有利的经济增长,它关注穷人在经济增长中的受益程度,被认为是有效减贫的最佳经济增长模式。益贫式增长理论认为经济增长是减贫的最大动力,但是经济增长是减贫的必要而非充分条件,高速的经济增长必须配合更公平的收入分配制度才能实现贫困快速下降。实现益贫式增长主要有两种途径：一种是通过经济增长直接提高穷人收入;另一种是通过政府公共再分配使贫困人口从经济增长中间接获益。本文通过对益贫式增长的含义及其实现路径相关文献进行回顾和总结,以期为学界进一步研究提供参考。     

The Short-Run Incidence of a Gasoline Tax Rebate Plan

The aim of this paper is to explain growth performance in Portugal in the last decades (1965-2006) through a multi-equation system with cumulative growth characteristics. The model uses a demand-orientated approach to determine the main relationships, which explain growth through a virtuous cycle. The idea is to identify the driving forces of growth with causal linkages and feedback tendencies that enable the process to be self-sustained. We estimate the multi-equation growth model by 3SLS to capture more efficiently the interrelations between the main growth forces and to control for the endogeneity of the regressors. Our evidence shows that the proposed model can successfully explain the Portuguese growth performance, highlighting the importance of export competitiveness as the key factor in this process. The cumulative growth process was interrupted at some points mainly due to the incapacity to transfer productivity gains into domestic prices and to make the economy more competitive. We also show that capital accumulation does not affect productivity growth, and domestic prices do not improve export competitiveness. These are the main drawbacks of the Portuguese economy that could explain the failure to achieve higher growth rates in the period 1965-2006.     

Ageing,human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth,labour supply and foreign capital

Portuguese Economic Journal - We add endogenous labour supply to exogenous population growth in an Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model with international capital movements. Under non-linearity from...     

中国经济体制改革及经济增长路径分析(1949～2009)(下):计量经济学层面

为分析1949～2009年间中国经济体制改革及改革开放以来中国经济增长的态势及其路径演进,明确当下中国经济处于何种增长区间,以及下一阶段经济增长的可持续性问题,构建了改革演进的理论框架,将新中国成立以来的经济增长路径分为4个阶段。以新古典经济增长模型为基础,通过放宽限制条件,构建计量经济模型拟合中国经济的增长路径。以整体推进阶段的实证数据检验模型的正确性并得出结论:中国的经济增长尚处于经济起飞阶段;下一阶段仍将维持经济的高位增长,具有可持续性。     

中国经济增长的周期与波动的研究-引入人力资本后的RBC模型

该文以中国经济五十年(1952-2001年)实际经济数据为背景,在基本 RBC 模型中引入人力资本,考虑内生物质资本和人力资本的利用率来研究中国经济增长和波动的形成.内生人力资本利用率从根本上揭示了经济增长波动的内在传播机制.该文指出传统的单纯以物质资本利用率为基础解释波动机制的观点不足以充分解释波动的形成.而在引入人力资本及其利用率之后,连同物质资本才能真正解释经济增长波动机制的形成.     

制造业碳排放和经济增长脱钩关系研究——基于速度和数量双重视角

基于速度脱钩和数量脱钩的双重视角,利用Tapio脱钩模型和环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,研究中国1987—2017年制造业碳排放和制造业经济发展的脱钩关系。结果表明:我国制造业2016—2017年、2008—2017年均为弱脱钩状态,制造业经济和碳排放呈倒“N”型关系,2017年制造业经济处于环境库兹涅茨曲线两拐点之间,未发生数量脱钩。借助“环境高山”理论可知,我国制造业处于经济增长和环境保护的“两难境地”,因此,政府需要做好经济和环境政策的长期攻坚准备。     

Dynamic analysis of wage inequality and creative destruction

Journal of Economics - This paper investigates the transitional dynamics of a basic Schumpeterian growth model under constant relative risk aversion. In this model, there are three patterns...     

知识经济与中国经济增长方式的战略性转变

本文依据中国经济发展面临的问题与世界经济结构调整现状,分析了科技进步、知识经济对经济增长的作用和影响,阐释了知识经济作为推动经济增长方式转变新要素的重要地位,进而探讨了面向知识经济时代的经济增长结构的战略性调整等问题。     

The Foreign Exchange Constraints to Economic Adjustment: The case of Iran

While a great deal of work has been devoted to the assessment of the effects of structural adjustment programmes, little is known about the relative importance of external financing and its contribution to the success of these adjustment programmes. This paper examines this question, using Iran's recent experience with an orthodox structural adjustment with its limited access to medium- and long-term external financing. Using the annual data for 1963-94, a three-gap model of growth is formulated and estimated in which economic growth is constrained by domestic saving, foreign exchange and public sector resource availability. The resulting foreign exchange-gap equation demonstrates a sharp trade-off between investment (capacity generation) and the capacity utilization rate. The model is simulated over the period 1995-99 under three growth path scenarios. The size of the foreign exchange gap under these growth path scenarios illustrates quite vividly the centrality of the foreign exchange constraint to the achievement of a modest growth rate in the medium-term.     

农村金融发展与农村经济增长——一个动态演化分析视角

农村金融发展对于农村经济增长具有重要的推动作用.运用1978-2010年的相关数据和时变参数模型估计方法,就我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的动态关系进行探寻.首先,协整检验与误差修正模型的估计结果显示:无论是长期还是短期,农村金融发展规模对于农村经济增长具有正向促进作用,而农村金融中介效率却对农村经济增长起到了负向抑制作用.时变参数模型的估计结果则进一步发现:农村金融发展规模对农村经济增长的促进作用在整体上呈现弱化趋势,当前的正向作用机制比较微弱;而农村金融中介效率对农村经济增长的抑制作用经历了一个先减弱后增强的“倒V”型变化过程.     

再论包含两类技术创新的内生经济增长模型

目前关于产品种类扩大型和熊彼特质量改进型的技术创新内生增长模型均较完善,但缺乏同时纳入两类技术变革的内生增长模型。本文构建了包含两类技术创新的内生增长模型,综合分析了技术进步导致经济增长的内在机制,并利用全素生产率核算方法进行了测算。测算发现在1995年至2009年期间政府有意识的技术研发投入对中国经济增长的贡献率上升了12个百分点,但与发达国家相比仍有较大差距,需政府进一步加大研发投入力度,同时加大科技成果转化为经济效益的强度。     

国际分工与产业结构变动的一般均衡理论模型

本文在全面均衡的框架下，融合了H-O模型和古典经济增长模型的思想，建立了分析国际分工与产业结构变动关系的理论模型。模型将封闭经济条件下产业结构变动的诱因分解为三个因素：消费因素、资本因素和劳动力因素，探讨了这三个因素对产业结构变动的影响机制和产业结构的变化轨迹；然后进一步分析了开放经济条件下产业结构向后工业化过渡的内外影响因素；最后，初步检验了基于制造一服务的国际分工模式对我国由工业经济向服务经济升级转型的不利影响。     

全球视野下中国科技投入规模演变态势分析与预测

首先,分析了全球科技投入规模的变化趋势,总结了中国科技投入规模的分布结构与变化特征。其次,采用弹性系数法,评价了改革开放以来中国科技投入的经济增长贡献弹性系数;然后,对中国科技投入规模进行预测,结合全社会R&D经费支出变化趋势,采用GM(1,1) 等维新息模型和趋势预测模型的组合预测模型,预测了“十三五”时期中国的全社会R&D经费支出。最后,提出了保障实现2020年中国科技发展预期目标的政策建议。研究结果表明,1991-2014年中国全社会R&D经费支出年均增长率高达21.5%,其中,1991—2001年中国R&D经费支出年均增长率达到21.3%,中国科技投入经济增长贡献弹性系数为1.47,2002—2012年中国R&D经费支出年均增长率为23.1%,中国科技投入经济增长贡献弹性系数为2.04。预计2020年中国全社会R&D经费支出将达到27 312亿元左右,中国有望从“世界科技大国”转变为“世界科技强国”。     

中国上市公司盈利成长规律实证分析

西方的多数研究证实 ,个别企业的盈利变化过程大致可由随机游走过程来表述 ,这给后期的学者利用盈利数据进行实证研究提供了基础。中国的某些学者不加检验地引进了西方的研究成果 ,即假设企业的盈利遵循随机游走过程 ,甚至认为企业的盈利应该遵循带成长因素的随机游走过程。实际情况如何呢 ?本文以上海证券交易所 1 994年底之前上市的公司为样本 ,采用多种统计方法 ,分析了它们连续 6年的盈利报告 ,结果发现 :(1 )上市公司盈利额及总资产利润率并不遵循随机游走过程和带成长因素的随机游走过程。 (2 )从盈利增量呈强负自相关的两个样本组合的统计分析看 ,模型中加进盈利增量变量 ,较大地提高了模型拟合度。 (3)从多项统计指标的显著改善可以看出 ,模型Et=b1 Et- 1 +b2 ΔEt- 1 +εt 能更好地描述样本公司的盈利成长。     

Technology Gap and Cumulative Growth: Models and outcomes

Addressing the question of why productivity growth rates differ between countries from a disequilibrium standpoint, the paper explores the possibility of combining in a single formalisation two different but complementary theories of technical change and macroeconomic growth--namely the Kaldorian idea of cumulative causation and the technology-gap approach to economic growth. In order to investigate the complementarities between these two approaches, a two-country macroeconomic model of technology-gap and cumulative growth is presented. The analytical solutions of the model for the growth rates of productivity and demand, and the dynamics of the technology-gap show the existence of a large set of possible outcomes: the follower country can fall behind, partly or totally catch up, or overtake the leader. Moreover, even if the follower is able to close the technology-gap, it will not necessarily be able to close the growth rate differential. The empirical evidence on the experience of 26 OECD countries during 1991-99 shows the relevance of the model for explaining the recent performance of technological activities and productivity growth.     

Local and global indeterminacy and transition dynamics in a growth model with public goods

Portuguese Economic Journal - This paper studies local and global indeterminacy and transition dynamics in an endogenous growth model where public goods increase production and the...     

中国高新区产业政策与制度变迁的效应研究——基于贝叶斯网络方法的情景分析

本文提出一个应用贝叶斯网络模型对宏观区域政策与高新技术产业政策使用效果进行情景分析的决策框架。中国高新技术产业开发区的建立和发展很大程度上依赖于政府政策,然而先前对影响中国高新区发展因素的研究主要集中在禀赋因素,如固定资产投资额或从业员工人数等,缺乏对制度性因素如省级高新区"升级"成国家级这一制度变迁效应的实证考察。对此,本文借助贝叶斯网络静态情景分析方法探讨制度因素与高新区成长之间的关系,结果显示:制度因素在中国高新区发展中起到关键作用,省级高新区"升级"政策如果结合加大R&D经费投入将会促进高新区成长。     

Policy Uncertainty,Persistence and Growth*

This paper explores links between policy uncertainty and growth. Using an endogenous growth model in which domestic investment is characterized by irreversibilities and policy fluctuates between a high- and a low-tax regime, it shows that the magnitude of policy fluctuation and the persistence of policy jointly determine the pattern of investment and growth. Cross-section regressions confirm that for 46 developing countries over the 1970-85 period, policy uncertainty is negatively correlated with both investment and growth. Policy persistence also plays an important role.     

流通产业发展影响区域经济增长的经验分析

利用1978—2009年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的数据,通过对面板数据进行单位根检验、协整检验并利用误差修正模型,考察了我国不同省市的流通产业对区域经济增长的影响。协整检验结果表明:区域流通产业发展与区域经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,区域流通产业的发展能显著促进区域经济增长,但这种影响存在明显的地区差异,流通产业对中部地区经济增长的贡献要弱于其对东、西部地区的贡献。基于误差修正模型的实证结果表明:在天津、湖南、贵州等11个省(自治区、直辖市),误差修正机制显著发生,其流通产业发展与经济增长存在长期和短期的因果关系;在海南和重庆,误差修正机制发生,但两者仅存在长期因果关系;在北京、山西等11个省(自治区、直辖市),误差修正机制的作用较弱,两者之间的长期因果关系不明显,但短期因果关系显著;在辽宁、江苏等7个省(自治区、直辖市),误差修正机制尚未发生,两者间不存在长期因果关系,仅存在短期因果关系。