中国产品内分工的区域化与全球化北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文采用全世界范围内40个经济体作为总体样本,9个东亚经济体作为东亚区域性样本,并将总体样本按照收入水平划分为四组样本,分别对其进行回归检验。结果表明,中国的零部件进口仍然具有区域性特征,零部件出口则更趋于全球化。生产者服务进口促进了中国产品内分工的全球化发展趋势。从收入等级来看,区域性特征主要表现在中国对马来西亚和泰国的零部件进口方面。生产者服务进口则大大降低了中国与该收入等级零部件贸易的区域性特征。本文分析认为,中国零部件贸易的区域分布变化源于中国的加工贸易升级以及东亚生产网络的技术结构演变。由于生产者服务贸易等方面的原因,中国对东亚生产网络的依赖程度有所降低,未来中国的产品内分工将更加趋于全球化。     

中国在东亚地区贸易结构中的地位和作用——基于零部件贸易的研究

本文从零部件贸易的角度分析了中国在东亚贸易结构中的地位。文中计算了中国和其他东亚经济体1992～2005年的零部件贸易额,在大量事实数据的基础上得出结论:中国在东亚地区以零部件进口为主,而与区域外市场之间以最终产品出口为主。同时,随着中国经济逐渐融入到东亚地区的生产网络中,东亚地区的"三角贸易"模式发生了转变:中国成为东亚地区的出口平台,进口来自于区域内较发达经济体的中间产品零部件,进行装配加工后将最终产品销往区域外市场。     

东亚的产业分工体系及其结构性不平衡

本文首先考察东亚区域内贸易及经济增长不稳定的几种表现,并对区域内以垂直产业内分工为主要特征的分工体系、以对中间品及部分资本品的"交叉需求"为基础的贸易结构作了分析;其次研究由区域内直接投资所形成的区域生产网络,指出由于处在区域垂直产业内分工底部的发展中经济体承受结构调整的能力有限、处在上游的经济体的生产(需求)对处在下游的经济体的波及效应不大、区域外对东亚所生产的最终消费品缺乏足够的有效需求,所以东亚区域生产网络及垂直产业内分工的稳定性较差,结构性不平衡难以纠正;最后着重研究东亚各经济体如何通过战略调整来加强区域垂直产业内分工的稳定性,并提出今后调整的基本方向。     

东亚的产业分工体系及其结构性不平篌

本文首先考察东亚区域内贸易及经济增长不稳定的几种表现，并对区域内以垂直产业内分工为主要特征的分工体系、以对中间品及部分资本品的“交叉需求”为基础的贸易结构作了分析；其次研究由区域内直接投资所形成的区域生产网络，指出由于处在区域垂直产业内分工底部的发展中经济体承受结构调整的能力有限、处在上游的经济体的生产（需求）对处在下游的经济体的波及效应不大、区域外对东亚所生产的最终消费品缺乏足够的有效需求，所以东亚区域生产网络及垂直产业内分工的稳定性较差，结构性不平衡难以纠正；最后着重研究东亚各经济体如何通过战略调整来加强区域垂直产业内分工的稳定性，并提出今后调整的基本方向。     

服务联系成本、基础设施建设和东亚垂直分工:1992～2006

东亚因其迅速发展的国际生产网络而受到经济学界的广泛关注。本文从基础设施建设和服务联系成本的角度对东亚生产网络的成因展开研究。作者拓展了Limao和Venables的基础设施指数,并利用联合国贸易统计面板数据,在区分零部件和最终品贸易的情况下建立增广引力模型,对服务联系成本的影响进行细致梳理和量化分析。结果显示,基础设施的建设及服务联系成本的降低对东亚垂直分工体系的建立起到了巨大的促进作用。从促进出口的意义上看,基础设施建设有助于推动中国深入参与区域分工体系,并对未来恢复贸易增长产生积极效果。     

产品内分工、国际生产分割与服务业聚合——以服务外包为中间投入的中美服务贸易的实证检验

本文以李嘉图的比较优势理论为起点,以跨国公司产品内分工、国际生产分割与服务业聚合为主题,对斯托珀一萨缪尔森定理、雷布钦斯基定理及其加强定理进行理论推演,对中美服务贸易进行实证检验。本文的研究结果,第一,斯托珀一萨缪尔森定理、雷布钦斯基定理及其加强定理是理论推演的三种情形之一;第二,美国相对于中国承接服务外包业务量随着经济规模扩大而呈现递减式增长。美国相对于中国生产服务的工资增加相同比例或者全要素生产率增加相同比例,相对于中国承接其他国家服务外包业务量下降的速度要快;第三,美国相对于中国服务业增加值增加相同比例,美国相对承接服务外包业务量增加的速度要快,这是规模报酬递增的结果。为此,中国经济规模的不断扩大、服务数目的日益增加、单位商品的劳动生产率不断提高,同时减缓中国零部件生产服务业的工资水平的不断攀升,有助于增强中国服务外包业务的竞争力。     

中国承接服务外包的就业效应研究

近几年,服务外包方兴未艾,服务外包因其资源消耗低、环境污染少、附加值大、吸纳就业能力强等特点,为解决我国就业问题提供一个重要研究方向。本文构建了服务外包承接与发包对三次产业就业和工资增长的回归模型,实证分析了中国承接服务外包的就业效应和工资增长效应。实证结果表明了中国服务外包承接和发包对第一产业就业影响不显著,对制造业和服务业就业影响显著,其中承接服务外包对就业有促进作用,服务外包发包作用相反;服务外包发包的工资增长效应不显著,承接服务外包对工资增长有促进作用。     

我国承接服务外包的经济效应分析

我国作为服务外包承接大国,服务外包对经济有着重大影响。文章从理论上探讨了服务外包对我国经济的贸易、产业结构、就业以及技术溢出四方面的效应,从实证上运用最小二乘法验证了服务外包对中国经济的推动作用,并提出加强服务外包认识,创新外包人才培养模式,完善服务外包发展的软、硬环境,加强人才培养,充分发挥竞争优势,提高自主创新能力等中国承接服务外包的政策建议。     

服务业对外直接投资的出口效应——基于我国微观企业的研究

文章基于我国服务业上市企业数据,采用多维固定效应模型,探讨和分析了我国服务业OFDI对服务贸易出口的影响,经研究发现：第一,服务业OFDI通过吸收东道国先进技术经验提升企业生产率水平和避开东道国服务贸易壁垒降低贸易成本,促进企业服务贸易出口增长;第二,我国服务业OFDI显著提升了企业服务贸易出口的二元边际,具体而言,整体上服务业OFDI会促进服务贸易出口增长4.82%,同时会提升企业的出口概率;第三,我国服务业OFDI"出口效应"存在明显的区域和行业的异质性,具体表现为：生产性服务业和消费性服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应",其OFDI带动服务贸易出口的增长分别为5.68%和3.52%,而公共服务业则不存在显著的"出口效应";东部地区和中部地区服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应",其OFDI带动区域服务贸易出口的增长分别为4.97%和3.56%,而西部地区则不存在显著的"出口效应"。上述研究结论对化解我国服务贸易出口增长困境和完善服务业对外直接投资政策机制具有一定的启示意义。     

区域生产网络:东亚经济体的新分工形式

“雁行模式”已经不能描述东亚生产分工的特点,取而代之的是区域生产网络。本文从区域生产网络概念切入,进而从贸易角度对东亚区域生产网络进行实证研究,并对东亚各经济体在工业领域的相互依赖性作了分析。     

东亚垂直分工网络与技术梯度研究——基于零部件贸易的视角

东亚因其迅速发展的国际生产网络而得到经济学界的广泛瞩目。本文在整理相关理论和实证文献的基础上,通过对人均收入水平的分析提出了东亚区域内广泛存在技术梯度差异的现实。作者根据Jones等人提出的国际垂直分割理论,建立增广引力模型,在区分零部件贸易和传统贸易的情况下,利用联合国贸易统计面板数据,对东亚垂直分工网络的技术结构进行了细致梳理。结果显示,近年来日本在核心部件上的作用有所下降,而四小龙实现了技术升级,作用得到较大的提升。作为东亚生产共享网络中的重要一极,中国同四小虎之间呈现出较强的互补性而非替代性。     

Openness and growth in East Asia after the Asian crisis

Openness with respect to trade in goods, services and foreign direct investment has a positive marginal effect on growth. The fast-growing East Asian economies were early openers, and this contributed to their fast growth. However, East Asian countries are not relatively open today. This factor, together with the convergence effect of fast growth in the past, imply that their economies will slow down. Their growth prospects are further reduced by growing geographic discrimination against their goods and services in world markets, and the slow down of the Japanese economy.     

东亚生产性服务业和制造业的产业关联分析

本文以1990年、1995年和2000年亚洲投入产出表数据为基础,运用投入产出分析法,对东亚各经济体生产性服务业和制造业进行产业关联分析。研究结果表明,经济发展水平越高的经济体其生产性服务业发展水平越高;随着经济水平的提高,制造业服务投入比重相应提高;两产业之间融合度的变动方向是:制造业需求主导→对称性均衡→生产性服务业供给主导;经济水平越高的经济体其生产性服务业对制造业发展的推动作用越强,发展水平越低的经济体其生产性服务业的发展就越依赖于制造业。中国在各项指标的比较中,基本上都位于东亚地区最后一位,尤其是中国制造业表现出服务投入比重下降这一与演进规律相悖的现象。     

Stability of production networks in East Asia: Duration and survival of trade

This paper sheds light on the stability of international production networks in East Asia from the perspective of the duration and survival of bilateral trade relationships at the product-line level. Using highly disaggregated data for intra-East Asian machinery trade, survival analysis is conducted as well as the examinations of the duration and volatility of trade relationships. The product-level analyses reveal that, compared to machinery finished products, machinery parts & components are traded through longer-lived and more stable relationships among East Asian countries. Once transactions are started, trade relationships of machinery parts & components are more likely to be maintained between countries even at a long distance, regardless of the exchange-rate fluctuations. The probability of discontinuing trade relationships of machinery finished products, on the other hand, are more likely to be sensitive to the level of trading cost as well as the exchange-rate fluctuations.     

International production networks and host country productivity: evidence from Malaysia

In the 1990s, Malaysia, along with other East Asian countries, achieved rapid economic growth rates. Research has yet to ascertain the extent to which this rapid economic growth was due to the development of global production networks. The main objective of the paper is to examine the impact of international production fragmentation on productivity growth. The paper hypothesises that international production fragmentation increases productivity growth through trade and foreign direct investment, and that productivity growth increases due to skill‐intensive industries producing within an international production network.     

Patterns and determinants of intra-industry trade in Asia

Intra-industry trade (IIT) has gained in importance across Asia as a result of the rapid growth of Asian economies and their key role in the international fragmentation of production. This paper examines the level of IIT for 22 countries in East, Southeast, South, and Central Asia in 2003. IIT is measured as a multilateral trade-weighted index and is reported for ten different categories of goods in the primary and secondary sectors. In addition, the determinants of IIT are investigated using a Tobit regression model. The results indicate that ASEAN and the high-income countries in East Asia exhibit the highest levels of IIT, followed closely by China and India. R&D spending, openness, and a higher share of manufactured exports were found to promote IIT, while geographical distance and the difference in economic size had an adverse effect, especially for manufactured goods. The ASEAN free trade area was most prominently associated with IIT across all SITC categories. Central and South Asian regional trade agreements had a positive influence on IIT in primary products.     

产品内国际分工与中国零部件贸易——理论、现状和问题

中国零部件贸易的快速增长是产品内国际分工和全球生产网络扩展的必然结果。统计数据分析显示,不同的贸易区域、国家和地区与中国的零部件贸易具有不同的特点。零部件贸易失衡和较低的零部件进出口单位价值比表明中国还处于产品内国际分工的低端和全球生产网络的外围。中国制造业的升级必须从零部件开始。     

Ties Binding Asia,Europe and the USA

We investigate changes in Asia's regional and global trade linkages and their influence on macroeconomic relationships among Asia, Europe and the USA. We first document changes in tripartite trade patterns and discuss stylized facts about East Asia's trade structure, with particular focus on the role of China. China plays a critical role in the rapidly expanding intra‐Asian trade as an assembly and production center that supplies final goods for the advanced economies. However, China's trade shares in final goods with East Asia and in parts and components with Europe and the USA are rising, suggesting that the region's production chains are becoming increasingly integrated into the global business network. Empirical results from a panel vector autoregression model generally confirm increasingly mutual macroeconomic interdependence among East Asia, Europe and the USA. The findings suggest a future role for Asia as an important trade partner and balancing power in the world economy.     

Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia

This paper studies the relationship between trade openness and output growth for a sample of twenty-three Asian countries using both a static OLS and a dynamic ECM estimation models. At the country specific level, the findings of this study provide robust empirical evidence indicating that higher revealed trade openness is not the main engine explaining the Asian economic-growth miracle. In particular, the authors find that physical capital accumulation is at the core of the observed long-run output per worker growth. At the regional level, the authors observe a marked difference between the pre and post 1997–1998 financial crisis, whereas, in the post period, trade openness has a positive and significant effect on output growth. In general, the results from the dynamic estimations prove that the conventional OLS static estimates underestimate the effect of investment on output growth. In addition, the dynamic model allows for a separation of gains from trade between short term and long term. The paper results also provide evidence in support of the idea that, countries with a growing degree of trade openness may experience faster per-capita output growth through gains in productivity associated to capital accumulation, rather than the assumed technological spillover effects from the trading sector. Again, at the regional level in the post financial crisis period both short term and long term gains from trade are relevant to growth. Why more trade does not necessarily imply faster growth at all levels of revealed trade openness growth, remains a conundrum.