山东固定资产投资与经济周期波动相关性的实证分析

在现代经济周期理论中,投资的周期波动被认为是导致经济周期性波动的主要因素.本文选取了山东省1990～2007年的年度数据,通过分析山东省固定资产投资增长率和实际GDP增长率的波动状况,采用H-P滤波描述和测度经济周期和投资周期,并运用统计方法对二者的相关性进行了实证分析.结果表明,山东省固定资产投资与实际经济增长存在密切的关系,且自1990年以来,山东省投资和GDP的周期性具有显著的一致性,最后本文给出了简短的政策建议.     

投资因素对中国经济周期波动的影响

经济周期波动很大程度上来源于固定资产投资的扩张与收缩.本文从历史的角度选取了中国1983年至2009年的经济统计数据,对改革开放后中国每一经济周期阶段中固定资产投资规模的情况进行实证分析.探讨分析了投资因素对我国经济周期波动的影响并提出了相关建议.     

我国固定资产投资对经济增长的滞后影响研究

从固定资产投资与GDP变动趋势的图形观测、固定资产投资效益系数测算和模型测定三个方面,对我国固定资产投资对GDP的滞后影响期进行了测定和分析,并对如何改善和控制这种滞后影响提出了相应的建议。     

通货膨胀与市场疲软的相互影响的讨论

本文从目前我国经济高速发展却经常受到通货膨胀与市场疲软的交替困扰的实情出发,根据市场经济运行机制,建立两部门的经济增长动态模型,从数学上进行定性分析,力求探寻这种困扰的根本原因,并试探寻求解决办法.本文的结论指出只要固定资产投资增长率大于零,经济周期波动就不可避免的存在,任何宏观调控都不能消除它;加强农业等发展速度较慢的产业的发展后劲;适当限制固定资产投资增长率高于GDP增长率的幅度,有利于减轻经济波动的幅度,为企业营造一个温和而宽松的外部经营环境创造条件.     

经济周期定期方法与研究进展

经济波动一直是宏观经济分析与预测中的经典问题,而经济周期拐点的及时识别对政府前瞻性经济政策的制定和企业投资经营战略的调整具有重要意义。鉴于我国目前尚没有权威机构对经济周期进行实时监测和发布,因而在划分经济周期和拐点识别时,往往局限于一种方法,不同方法有效性的比较缺乏一个基准参考。文章对国内外研究经济周期及其周期拐点定期的方法进行梳理和分析,依据经济周期定期方法的研究脉络,对主流的方法进行评述,并对我国经济周期定期进行展望,希望能在分析中国宏观经济波动特征和经济走势预测方面提供一些方法论参考和借鉴。     

财政政策作用的阶段性和非对称性检验

财政政策的非对称性主要是指它在经济周期的不同阶段对GDP的变化具有不同的响应。通过对经济周期状态的划分和度量，我们发现在我国财政收入和财政支出对不同程度的经济扩张和经济收缩具有非对称反应，而且预算盈余也表现了非对称迹象。因此，在我国经济的收缩期，应该加大财政政策的实施力度来刺激需求和促进经济增长，尤其要注意发挥财政收入对经济波动的调节作用。     

中国宏观经济形势与政策:2000-2001年

2000年中国GDP增长速度将超过1999年而预计增长7.95%,从而1999年将构成中国增长型经济周期拐点,中国经济循环从2000年起进入本次经济周期的扩张阶段。     

世界经济周期的非对称性研究——基于Markov机制转换模型

经济周期具有非线性的特点,传统的线性模型很难解决经济周期中结构突变导致的参数变性题。为此,本文将Markov机制转换的状态空间模型应用到世界经济周期的非对称研究之中。实证结果表明,Markov机制转换的状态空间模型较好的刻画了世界实际经济增长周期性变化的过程,从中得出以下论:金融危机等虚拟经济因素对世界经济周期的影响加大,使得世界经济周期的非对称性越来越明显。正向的宏观调控政策冲击机制可以使世界经济增长1.0253%,这对于世界经济进入扩张阶段起着极其重要的作用。     

中国金融与经济周期的测度与分析——兼论双重周期中的政策选择

本文采用了更为匹配样本数量的中低频域分析和拐点分析方法来研究中国的金融周期。从单个变量的识别结果来看，信贷、信贷与GDP比例、M2和房地产价格均是识别中国金融周期的重要变量，而股价并非识别中国金融周期的代表性变量。综合的金融周期实证表明，金融周期的确是与传统经济周期所不同的一种内生的经济现象。金融周期普遍比用GDP识别出来的传统经济周期的持续期更长、振幅更大。中国的金融周期是先行于实体经济周期的。金融周期下行会对实体经济的复苏带来负面影响。宏观政策需要严格把握政策力度，确保双周期的平稳过渡。     

新疆固定资产投资与经济波动的实证研究

通过实证分析的方法,以1978—2007年新疆生产总值与固定资产投资为样本,揭示固定资产投资与经济波动之间的相互关系,说明在此期间GDP增长率与固定资产投资增长率的波动特征。利用计量经济学软件EVIEWS3.0对GDP及固定资产投资两个时间序列作了稳定性分析、因果检验以及协整关系检验,从中得出了一些观点及建议。     

我国通货膨胀与通货紧缩的非线性转换

本文应用ESTAR模型对我国通胀的非线性调节和通胀与通缩的非线性转换进行实证研究,研究结果表明我国通货膨胀具有显著的非线性调节,通胀与通缩的转换具有显著的非线性指数转换的特征,这种转换发生在滞后二期,转换的速度显著;我国通胀具有整体稳定性和局部非稳定性,由于我国通胀与通缩的临界水平c为3.3个百分点,表明我国通胀在3%左右的水平上处于非稳定运行状态;进一步,本文所估计的指数转换函数和c,基本准确地揭示了我国通胀的动态随机周期行为特征。本文的结论表明我国货币政策具有总体有效性和相机适宜性。     

Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment

The periodic structure of business cycles suggests that significant asymmetries are present over different phases of the cycle. This paper uses markov regime-switching models with fixed and duration dependent trasition probabilities to directly model expansions, contractions and durations in Australian GDP growth and unemployment growth. Evidence is found of significant asymmetry in growth rates across expansions and contractions for both series. GDP contractions exhibit duration dependence implying that as output recessions age the likelihood of switching into an expansion phase increases. Unemployment growth does not exhibit duration dependence in either phase. Evidence is also presented that non-linearities in unemployment growth are well explained by the asymmetries in the GDP growth cycle. The analysis suggests that recessions are periods of rapid and intense job destruction, that Australian unemployment tends to ratchet up in recessionary periods and, in contrast to US and UK studies, that shocks to Australian unemployment growth are more persistent in recessions than expansions.     

Seasonality and Markov switching in an unobserved component time series model

It is generally acknowledged that the growth rate of output, the seasonal pattern, and the business cycle are best estimated simultaneously. To achieve this, we develop an unobserved component time series model for seasonally unadjusted US GDP. Our model incorporates a Markov switching regime to produce periods of expansion and recession, both of which are characterized by different underlying growth rates. Although both growth rates are time-varying, they are assumed to be cointegrated. The analysis is Bayesian, which fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. Comparison with results from a similar model for seasonally adjusted data indicates that the seasonal adjustment of the data significantly alters several aspects of the full model. First Version Received: January 2001/Final Version Received: February 2002 Send offprint requests to: Rob Luginbuhl?Correspondence to: Rob Luginbuhl     

MODELLING A REGIME‐SHIFTING BEVERIDGE CURVE

This paper offers new insights into Beveridge curve analysis by modelling the unemployment–vacancy rate relationship within a Markov regime‐switching environment in which the probabilities of curve‐shifting are determined endogenously by shift factors. Shift factors include structural factors such as labour market participation and net migration, while cyclical variables include GDP growth, the real rate of interest, and labour productivity. This approach enables us to estimate regime‐specific parameters and to assess the role played by these factors in influencing the transition probabilities of switching between regimes. Using New Zealand data, we show that increases in the participation rate have shifted the Beveridge curve inward, while increases in net migration have shifted the curve outward.     

Asymmetric effect of advertising on the Chinese stock market

In this paper, we investigate whether investor attention to advertising has an asymmetric effect on Chinese stock returns by using a multivariate Markov switching model with time-varying regime transition probabilities. Using the Chinese stock market as a setting, we obtain lagged conditional volatility from generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) for modelling the time-varying transition probabilities of the regime-switching process to capture changes in the market regime. Our evidence documents that the high advertising portfolio does earn higher abnormal return than the low advertising portfolio in low-volatility periods. In high-volatility periods, however, the abnormal return is insignificant when the firm increases advertising spending. Our results support the behavioural model argument that in high-volatility period, advertising information diffuses slowly due to cognitive dissonance. Thus, the effect of advertising on stock returns is asymmetric, and it shows statistical significance in low-volatility periods.     

中国电力周期与经济周期的协同性——基于Markov区制转移模型

采用1978—2015年中国电力消费和国内生产总值的年度数据,基于"三区制"马尔科夫区制转移模型,研究了电力消费和经济增长的动态转变过程,识别和划分了改革开放后中国电力周期和经济周期的阶段,并分析了两者在不同阶段的协同性。结果表明:电力周期和经济周期均具有低速增长期、稳定增长期和高速增长期三个区制转移特征;电力消费在低速增长期和高速增长期的波动性明显高于GDP,而在稳定增长期的波动性则显著小于GDP;20世纪80年代中期以前,是电力周期和经济周期的静态协同期;20世纪80年代中后期,两者处于非协同期;之后,两者处于显著的跨区制动态协同期,且处于协同期的电力周期与经济周期在时间上表现出较高的一致性。     

Nonlinear models,composite longer leading indicator and forecasts for UK real GDP

This paper examines the role of the Office for National Statistics Composite Longer Leading Indicator, in nonlinear business cycle models for growth rates of UK real gross domestic product (GDP). These models are of the smooth transition regression class, with the transition between “regimes” expressed as functions of lagged changes in the leading indicator. In general, evidence is found of business cycle regime asymmetries, with increases and decreases in the leading indicator implying distinct responses for the dependent variable. Single transition function appears to capture these asymmetries satisfactorily. Nonlinear models provide more accurate one-step ahead forecasts than corresponding linear leading indicator models.     

Okun's Law Does the Austrian unemployment–GDP relationship exhibit structural breaks?

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Initial empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two to three percent GDP growth rate above the natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by one percentage point and vice versa. In this investigation we check whether this postulated relationship exhibits structural breaks by means of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo methods. We estimate a regression model, where the parameters are allowed to switch between different states and the switching process is Markov. As a by-product we derive an estimate of the current state within the periods considered. Using quarterly Austrian data on unemployment and real GDP from 1977 to 1995 we infer only one state, i.e. there are no structural breaks. The estimated parameters demand for an excess GDP growth rate of 4.16% to decrease unemployment by 1 percentage point. Since only one state is inferred, we conclude that the Austrian economy exhibits a stable relationship between unemployment and GDP growth. First version received: January 2000/Final version received: October 2000     

MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND COUNTERFACTUAL INFLATION‐TARGETING IN HONG KONG

The present paper evaluates macroeconomic adjustment in Hong Kong with an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model under a fixed exchange rate regime. We find that exports and world inflation shocks are the dominant sources of GDP volatility, with the risk premium taking on importance during the Asian crisis after 1997. A counterfactual simulation, assuming a flexible exchange rate regime with inflation targeting, shows that inflation would have decreased slightly, but interest‐rate volatility would have increased significantly. The welfare gains from switching out of the currency board system appear to be marginal.     

Testing the null hypothesis of no regime switching with an application to GDP growth rates

This paper presents tests for the null hypothesis of no regime switching in Hamilton’s (Econometrica 57:357–384, 1989) regime switching model. The test procedures exploit similarities between regime switching models, autoregressions with measurement errors, and finite mixture models. The proposed tests are computationally simple and, contrary to likelihood based tests, have a standard distribution under the null. When the methodology is applied to US GDP growth rates, no strong evidence of regime switching is found. I thank Don Andrews, Peter Phillips, Yuichi Kitamura, Anat Bracha, Patrik Guggenberger, Orit Whiteman and three anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions.