安徽省就业增长与经济增长、城镇化关系的实证研究

文章运用协整理论、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数,验证了安徽省就业增长与经济增长、城镇化之间的关系。结果表明:安徽省就业增长与经济增长、城镇化之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,经济增长和就业增长之间存在单项因果关系,城镇化和就业增长之间存在双向因果关系。证实了安徽省城镇化和就业增长的相互促进作用,经济增长短期内对就业增长具有较为有力的促进作用。安徽省要以促进经济快速增长、加快推进城镇化进程为抓手,促进和扩大就业增长。     

城镇化、金融发展与城乡统筹关系研究

通过构建指标体系,采用1991年至2010年的数据,对我国城镇化、金融发展与城乡统筹的关系进行了实证研究。采用主成份分析法形成城乡统筹水平、城镇化水平和金融发展水平变量综合数值,通过序列平稳性检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、相关分析等方法对问题假设进行了验证。研究结果表明:城镇化是金融发展的格兰杰原因,二者之间存在显著的正相关关系;城镇化与城乡统筹、金融发展与城乡统筹之间都不存在格兰杰因果关系,城镇化与金融发展并不必然导致城乡统筹水平的提高。     

城镇化与经济发展的关系研究:基于广西的实证

"三期叠加"背景下,广西经济发展面临"中高速、优结构、多挑战、可持续、新驱动"等一系列复杂多变的新格局,要保持经济的平稳增长,摆脱"中等收入陷阱",关键是加快城镇化建设,加快城乡一体化发展进程。本文从广西城镇化及经济发展现状出发,探索城镇化与经济增长之间的互动关系。研究表明,广西城镇化水平较低,发展相对滞后,地区发展不平衡;产业结构不断优化,但第三产业发展缓慢,城乡二元结构特征明显;广西城镇化与经济发展存在长期的内在均衡机制,并且二者呈现出双向的格兰杰因果关系。     

我国金融结构与经济增长——基于我国第二、三产业发展的研究视角

文章基于1981年-2007年我国金融结构数值与第二、三产业发展数据,通过建立VAK模型,应用Johansen协整检验法、格兰杰因果检验的方法,探讨了我国金融结构与第二、三产业发展的关系,并具体分析了直接融资与间接融资对我国第二、三产业发展的影响,实证结果表明：我国金融结构的数值与第二产业发展存在反向的关系,而与第三产业发展则存在正向的关系;第二产业的发展虽与间接融资具有正向的关系,但两者并不构成格兰杰因果关系;而我国第三产业的发展与直接融资则具有正向的关系且第3产业的发展是直接融资的格兰杰成因。     

金融发展对城镇化影响的实证研究——以河南省为例

利用2001年~2012年河南省17个地级市的面板数据,采用基于PVAR的GMM估计、面板格兰杰因果检验、面板脉冲响应分析和面板方差分解等诸多实证方法,笔者考察了金融发展对就业城镇化、生活方式城镇化、城市建设城镇化和户籍人口城镇化的影响。研究表明:金融发展对河南城镇化进程具有重要影响,金融发展显著抑制了就业城镇化的推进,但是短期内显著促进户籍人口城镇化进程,对生活方式城镇化和城区建设城镇化的支持则很不明显。格兰杰因果检验和方差分解分析表明:金融发展对城镇化的影响主要通过就业城镇化、户籍人口城镇化渠道产生。研究对河南省乃至中西部地区城镇化推进中配套金融政策的制定具有重要意义。     

义乌市专业市场与城镇化发展互动关系

义乌拥有我国最大的小商品专业市场,在专业市场的带动下,义乌由一个不起眼的农业县发展成一个充满活力的中等城市和国际商贸中心,形成了一条具有地方特色的城镇化道路和模式。文章采用实地调研、理论分析和计量分析的方法,对义乌市专业市场与城镇化的互动关系进行研究。首先,分析了义乌市专业市场和城镇化发展的历程和现状,发现两者之间具有时间上的关联性。接着,探讨了义乌市专业市场与城镇化的互动作用机制,其中专业市场推动城镇化的作用主要表现在专业市场带动人口集聚,促进产业集聚,驱动产业升级,推动城市空间演变。城镇化加快了生产要素的集聚,推动地区消费水平提高,促进基础设施的完善,为专业市场发展提供有利的环境。最后,运用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系分析等计量经济模型,定量分析义乌市专业市场与城镇化之间的关系,结果表明:专业市场成交额和城镇化率之间有着正向的协整关系,即存在长期的均衡关系;专业市场是城镇化的格兰杰原因,同时城镇化也是专业市场的格兰杰原因。     

流通产业经济效应的城镇化门槛研究

作为国民经济的先导和支柱性产业,流通产业为促进我国经济增长发挥了举足轻重的作用。城镇化被认为是我国扩大内需和结构转变的关键,通过集聚与扩散影响流通产业经济效应释放。通过构建流通产业经济效应的门槛面板回归模型,基于1978—2012年各省面板数据进行实证分析,研究发现:我国流通产业经济效应释放存在城镇化发展水平门槛;东、中、西部各省(市、自治区)城镇化水平总体上依次超越流通产业经济效应释放的城镇化第三、第二和第一门槛值;东、中、西部地区流通产业经济效应的城镇化门槛存在显著空间区域特征,且经济效应依次递减。在此基础上,提出夯实城镇化发展基础平台,促进城镇化协同发展、推动流通产业与互联网融合发展等政策建议。     

安徽省县域城镇化质量的时空演变

以安徽省61个县(市)4个年份作为研究断面,采用主成分分析法对各县域城镇化质量进行综合评价,通过ESDA方法,揭示了安徽省县域城镇化质量时空分异特征、演化及成因。研究表明:12000—2013年,安徽省县域城镇化质量逐年提升,但各县域间相对差异逐步拉大;2005年之前,县域城镇化质量增速缓慢,之后则中东部区域县域城镇化增速和质量高于其他地区;全省县域城镇化全局自相关由不显著逐步增强,出现空间聚集倾向;局部自相关不显著,仅出现少数小范围的高值和低值区。2县域城镇化整体空间格局呈现"东高西低"、"中部凸起、南北低洼"的特征;热点区格局由离散分布逐步集中于皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区。3安徽省县域城镇化发展受区域发展政策影响较大。     

工业化、城镇化和农业现代化互动关系的实证研究

工业化、城镇化和农业现代化已经成为我国社会经济发展的趋势,三者之间关系也成为当前理论界讨论的热点。本文计量检验了广东、江苏、山东和浙江四省的工业化、城镇化和农业现代化演进的进程、相关关系和因果关系。结果表明,四省的城镇化发展迅速,工业化达到高级阶段,农业现代化呈下降趋势,工业化和城镇化呈正相关关系,工业化和城镇化与农业现代化呈负相关关系。四省的协整关系和格兰杰因果关系并不显著和一致,表明三化发展是一种自然和市场发展过程。依此结果,文章提出了政策建议。     

金融发展与产业升级关系的实证分析

本文以陕西省1997—2011年为样本对产业升级与金融发展的关系进行分析，研究表明，金融发展规模、金融发展效率以及城市化是产业升级的原因。其中，产业合理化与金融发展规模、金融发展效率都存在单向格兰杰关系；金融发展效率是产业高级化的单向格兰杰原因，城市化与产业升级无显著的格兰杰关系。最后，为促进产业升级与金融发展提出建议。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.