Designing the future—A reflection of a transdisciplinary case study in Austria

The paper presents a transdisciplinary case study which aimed to encourage a vital regional process for building more sustainable structures and regional networks in the future. The case study looks at the industrial city of Steyr which is located in a highly dynamic region in Upper Austria and has to compete with other regional industrial centres and on the global market with internationally acting companies in the automotive sector. For finding local strategies to cope with globally induced pressures and changes several foresight techniques and transdisciplinary approaches have been applied such as interviews, photo elicitation, workshops and scenario building. The transdisciplinary case study is reflected by exploring three major research questions: first, how does transdisciplinarity work in practice, second, what are the benefits and limitations of transdisciplinary research in regional foresight processes and third, how can transdisciplinary research contribute to initiating a long-term process for building sustainable networks and structures in the region. Some answers can be given from the empirical example of Steyr. The case study shows that particularly in regions with a long industrial history and tradition and where existing paradigms cannot easily be overcome, a transdisciplinary procedure provides clear advantages over sole expert solutions. Transdisciplinarity can be the key to get through to the local actors, to develop perfectly fitting strategies for the region and to initiate joint learning and in an ideal situation a long-term change process. New ideas, structures and networks are established which are essential for improving the long-term development of a region.     

东中西部地区区域科技协同创新机制构建策略 ——基于共生理论和地理邻近性的分析

科技创新不仅需要微观层面各个创新主体之间进行协同,而且也需要我国在宏观层面搞好东中西部地区不同省（市、区）之间的协调。按照共生理论的观点,东中西部地区各个省（市、区）可以被看作是不同的创新共生单元,在促进区域科技协同创新的过程中,应该基于地理邻近的原则构建跨省（市、区）的科技协同创新大区域,本着优势互补、互惠互利的原则,切实建立并强化各省（市、区）微观层面创新主体之间的联动机制,并在宏观层面结合区域优势特色产业的打造,确定区域科技协同创新的发展战略规划,以构建起区域科技协同创新与经济协调发展相互促进的良性运行机制。     

地方政府债务、空间溢出效应与区域经济增长

在区域协调发展和城市群不断扩大的背景下,本文基于2008-2018年我国271个地级市的平衡面板数据,利用动态空间杜宾模型探究地方政府债务通过基础设施建设渠道促进区域经济增长的作用机制。研究发现:(1)地方政府债务存在空间溢出效应,即本地的地方政府债务能够促进邻近区域的经济增长。该结论不随模型设定、代理变量、估计方法更改而发生变化。(2)从时间维度上看,基础设施的服务期限较长,因此地方政府债务对邻近区域经济增长的空间溢出效应存在时间累加,即长期效应大于短期效应。(3)从空间维度上看,我国省际间存在市场分割,导致地方政府债务的空间溢出效应省内强于省外。与此同时,地方政府债务的空间溢出效应主要存在于东部发达区域。(4)机制研究发现,基础设施作为政府提供的公共品,具有正外部性,在促进本地经济增长的同时,通过提升区域内互联性,促进了邻近区域的经济增长。本文研究表明,地方政府债务发行应同时考量本地效应、空间溢出效应以及区域差异;此外,制定地方债务相关政策时应在稳增长(同时考虑本地经济增长和区域经济增长)和防风险之间寻求平衡。     

Noneconomic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties

We examine the role of noneconomic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as environmental treaties, environmental engagement tends to encourage international lending. Countries with such noneconomic partnerships also find it easier to engage in economic exchanges since they face the possibility that debt default might also spill over to hinder their noneconomic relationships. We present a theoretical model of these ideas and then verify their empirical importance using a bilateral cross-section of data on international cross-holdings of assets and environmental treaties. Our results support the notion that international environmental cooperation facilitates economic exchange.     

地方政府帮助地方银行改善经营绩效了吗?--基于“地方保护”和“行政干预”的视角

本文检验了地方政府行为对地方银行经营绩效的影响,发现:(1)"地方保护"具有"保护之手"作用,"行政干预"具有"良性引导"作用,二者有利于降低地方银行的盈利波动性、提升地方银行的运营稳健性。(2)对于资产规模较小的银行、未设立省外分行的银行,"地方保护"和"行政干预"的积极影响较大;对于高技术产业投资比较活跃的地区,"地方保护"和"行政干预"的积极影响较大。(3)当省内经济增长率领先于全国水平时,"地方保护"和"行政干预"依然发挥积极作用;然而,当省内经济增长率落后于全国水平时,"地方保护"会产生"约束之手"作用,"行政干预"会产生"恶性引导"作用,二者反而会加剧地方银行的盈利波动性、降低地方银行的运营稳健性。     

Application of a vision in the Lake District of Salzburg

Understanding the complexity of landscapes is an essential prerequisite to propose strategies for landscape development in the mid future, to predict long-term effects of landscape change, and assess future demands on landscape resources. In order to be able to direct today's landscapes to a possible future state (German: Leitbild), landscape planning must include socio-cultural, economic and political considerations in addition to ecological aspects of the landscape. In response to this challenge, this paper unifies the Leitbild concept with a spatial explicit planning procedure and introduces a case study application for describing and classifying landscape visions based on a transdisciplinary, holistic concept.The general assessment system of planning a vision is adapted to the natural, cultural, political and economic conditions of the given case study area in the Federal States Upper Austria and Salzburg (Austria). The assessment system includes exercises that identify the assets of the planning procedure and encourage stakeholders, scientist and local people to collaborate in planning and implementation processes. This paper provides an overview of planning procedures from the Leitbild perspective, outlines problems encountered in the case study, and compares them to the findings of other scholars.     

内蒙古投资驱动型经济增长方式研究

固定资产投资是拉动内蒙古经济增长的主要力量,转型期的内蒙古不应简单否定投资驱动型经济增长方式,而是应当从自身所处的经济发展阶段出发,在肯定投资对地区经济增长具有积极作用的同时,摒弃传统的单纯追求投资规模扩张的“外延增长”战略,将固定资产投资与经济结构转型相结合,逐步解决投资来源单一、投资结构失衡、投资方式粗放和投资率偏高等问题,通过提升投资驱动质量,促进经济结构的优化调整,实现经济发展方式的转变。     

Complementary currencies: what role should they be playing in local and regional government?

The current climate of fiscal austerity has seen a resurgence in ‘complementary currencies’ as local and regional governments look for ways to use under-utilized assets, maintain employment and avoid local economic decline. The authors explore how local and regional governments can facilitate complementary currencies to reduce the impact of external economic shocks and enable their economies to continue to function in the face of austerity. They recommend that localities consider participating in existing complementary currency ‘circles’.     

Foresight for debate: Reflections on an experience in conceptual design

Among the various reasons to engage in foresight activities, one encountered often is to stimulate dialogue on imminent issues and inspire innovations aimed at the challenges they bring along. The authors' studio, Pantopicon, was asked to carry out a (near future) foresight desk study investigating the changing role between people and their home/office interiors. Furthermore they were asked to render tangible the challenges brought forward by this study and create a thought-provoking experience for an audience of professionals and general visitors within the context of a trade fair (i.e. the Biennale Interieur in Kortrijk, Belgium). The article will zoom in on the particular way in which this challenge was taken up, i.e. by creating an immersive experience embodying imminent future changes by means of five fair booths. Each represented a fictitious company with products or services aimed at new needs, opportunities and abilities emerging from changes in the relationship between people and their home interiors. This article describes the follow-up approach, the results obtained and reflects upon a series of key learnings following from the experience in particular and the role and value of conceptual design in enhancing the experience factor in foresight in general. Hence, we aim to illustrate how an immersive conceptual design approach can be used in an applied foresight context and how it raises new questions and opportunities for both research and applied contexts. Through physical evidencing¹ and open-ended storytelling, futures rendered tangible through design contribute to instilling a sense of wonder in people, in shifting their mindset to render them more susceptible to anticipating some of tomorrow’s changes.     

“银根紧缩”政策下我国地方国资资产证券化的发展诉求及策略

在＂银根紧缩＂政策影响下,地方国资资产证券化既是地方政府实现直接融资的＂抓手＂,也是促进当地经济发展的＂推手＂。要完成十二.五时期地方政府确定的经济社会发展目标,地方国资资产证券化将是一条有效率的直接融资途径。因此,积极探索＂银根紧缩＂政策下我国地方国资资产证券化的发展诉求及策略具有重要意义。     

The co-creation of regional futures: Facilitating action research in regional foresight

This article presents the interconnected phases of a regional-foresight process in an AR perspective within the context of a complex regional dynamic of actors with distinct local and regional political presences. The analysis is based on a Norwegian case of AR on regional foresight. The article reflects upon and develops the concept of action research (AR) as it relates to regional-foresight practices in connection with regional planning strategies (policies), according to Norway's new Planning and Building Act (PBA, 2008). Both AR and regional foresight are broad terms within a number of domains, and several contributions have sought to show how these are interlinked Ramos (2006). The focus is on how AR and action researchers both contribute to the co-creation of regional and sub-regional formulation of planning by regional-foresight processes, which are driven by decision-making regional bodies. This article contributes to the understanding of how an AR strategy of ‘strategic facilitation’ may improve the overall foresight capacity of all regional actors, both in concert and as single stakeholders. Also it furthers the understanding of how an AR approach may assist in transforming the foresight practices and the strategic decision-making into a more transparent process.     

Quality of data, information and knowledge in regional foresight processes

A central subcategory of futures research is technology foresight. There is a concern that today's technology foresight processes do not serve technology-political decision-making and strategy processes of companies well enough. The regional level needs to be emphasized, too, and the inclusion of a wide variety of actors and organizations. There is a danger that results of foresight processes are not absorbed into regional strategy-making processes, leading to a “black hole of interpretation and implementation of foresight knowledge”. Particularly knowledge, but also data and information are crucial concepts in foresight processes. An important issue is how to transform foresight information into future-oriented innovation knowledge. Concrete tools and institutional settings to enhance data, information and knowledge quality in foresight processes and strategy work are needed. This article investigates limitations of established foresight processes and planning approaches, limitations in practical utilization of results of foresight processes, and quality of data, information and knowledge as concrete tools and as a systematic response to limitations. The article is partly based on empirical results from a technology foresight survey undertaken in Finland in 2005. The research responds to societal and academic interest by combining the fields of (i) futures research and (ii) data, information and knowledge quality. Future-oriented considerations are not routine tasks, which makes it especially challenging and important to ensure that these processes benefit from data, information and knowledge of good quality.     

“Foresight process impacts: Beyond any official targets,foresight is bound to serve democracy”

Foresight is usually criticised for having a limited direct impact on policy-making. Although contexts play a significant role, this may be true to a certain extent. It is also true, however, that the value of foresight has been under-explored. The purpose of the paper is to show the value of foresight in contributing to the development of more participatory societies irrespective of the specific ‘official’ objectives it is designed to serve. The methodology included the creation of a specific impact assessment framework and the assessment of certain foresight exercises (FNR Foresight and eFORESEE Malta) in terms of contribution to more participatory societies through case studies. The assessment showed that although contributing to more participatory societies was not among the main aims of the particular exercises, they managed to achieve certain impacts facilitating increased public participation or directly improving democratic processes in policy-making. Foresight is ‘by default’ devised to promote democratic processes through inclusiveness, openness, transparency, public engagement, and multi-stakeholder approaches.     

Probing the future: Mobilising foresight in multiple-product innovation firms

With rapid changes in technology and intense competition in the business environment the importance of cultivating and sustaining foresight in multiple-product innovation firms has been propelled to unprecedented heights. Yet, research on the processes through which such firms mobilise foresight in their working environment remains scarce. This paper seeks to explore the different processes through which a high-performing new product design consultancy probes into the future aiming to identify possible avenues for product development and potentially define trends in multiple industries. This inductive, theory-building study identifies seven key processes and stresses the importance of perpetual probing and learning for sustaining foresight in such high-change environments.     

中国银行业金融资产质量的区域差异分析

改革开放以来,我国居民的金融资产发生了很大的变化,金融资产的总量迅速膨胀,金融资产分布的差异也在扩大。本文分别从不同区域的角度分析了我国商业银行金融资产质量的情况。得出不同区域间的金融资产质量存在较大的差异。同时,分析了其中的原因,并证明了经济发展水平对于金融资产质量有一定的影响,但并非是决定金融资产质量的唯一因素,决定金融资产质量的因素比较复杂。     

Corporate foresight in emerging markets: Action research at a multinational company in Turkey

The corporate foresight—future studies in business—is gaining importance globally. However, research to date has largely focused on the multinational companies (MNC) and yet revealed little about the implementation of corporate foresight in the regional subsidiaries of MNCs in emerging markets. An action research in the regional subsidiary of an MNC in Turkey was carried out to address this gap. Seven major findings/challenges were recorded during the action research: (1) changing mental models about the future, (2) controlled two-tier structure, (3) customisation of methodologies, (4) thorough examination of information sources, (5) external participation, (6) changing the primary dimension of the company and (7) sharing with other regional subsidiaries and corporate headquarters. These findings were categorised under a new framework—Knowledge-People-System-Organisation (KPSO) framework for managing the corporate foresight process at MNCs in emerging markets. The balanced distribution of the findings in this new framework shows that it could be used for further theory development in the area of corporate foresight and implemented in further corporate foresight exercises.     

中国区域金融发展水平与区域经济差异的协整检验

在建立金融发展与经济增长关系的理论模型和运用泰尔指数法测度中国29个省份1978～2005年区域金融发展水平和经济增长差异的基础上,采用计量经济学中的协整检验方法,对区域金融发展水平与区域经济的差距的动态均衡关系进行研究,结果表明:两者之间存在着长期均衡关系;区域金融发展水平的差异是导致区域经济增长差异的原因。     

Market-based vs. grassroots citizen participation initiatives in photovoltaics: A qualitative comparison of niche development

Photovoltaic citizen participation initiatives (CPIs) receive increasing attention as a form of social innovation, contributing to a sustainable decentralized energy future. However, their ability to outgrow a protected niche characterized by feed-in tariffs, to regime level, is unclear. Drawing on qualitative interviews with key actors, the present study classifies Austrian CPIs in terms of them being market-based (profit-oriented business) or grassroots initiatives (civil-society based community activism), and compares these two types with respect to the three key processes of strategic niche management: actor network formation, learning, and expectations management. Market-based CPIs exhibit a relatively heterogeneous external actor network. They follow a policy of business development, engage in highly professionalized learning, and access a large, widespread customer base. In contrast, grassroots CPIs leverage a tightly-knit network of local actors, engage in informal learning and shared expectations. In some CPIs, market-based and grassroots motivations converge. Both types seem capable of achieving regime level, either through individual growth or by aggregation of multiple small-scale initiatives. As yet, few CPIs have outgrown their local niche status. This is mainly due to a lack of intermediary actors which may institutionalize knowledge and resources to support the foundation of new CPIs.     

National foresight in science and technology strategy development

The paper is concerned with the national foresight exercises in Thailand to devise the key science and technology (S&T) strategies. The Thai government, through the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA), has used the foresight processes to influence policy making and create national foresight programmes. The foresight exercise, covering the period from 2000 to 2020, aims to examine the potential of the Thai industry and investigate a set of development policies necessary to make the Thai industry successful by the year 2020. Three rounds of strategic conferences comprising 2677 people were set up to create a vision for the future of the industry. The results of the foresight process provide a comprehensive overview of the trends of the Thai industry. The study contributes towards the formulation of feasible technological and industrial policies, which would enhance the country's ability to improve the competitive position for tomorrow.     

增长的挑战:实现可持续发展

<正> 马特·安德森:实现经济的健康发展,保持很好的环境是一个很大的挑战。在中国还面临其他很多的挑战,比如说,农村城市地区发展不平衡问题,南北发展不平衡问题,水资源问题。我们还会讨论有关促进中