视点

消费为何难以提振 在过去半个多世纪，总体上，中国居民消费（即民间消费）占GDP比重一直存持续明显下降。     

中国服务业占GDP比重仍在持续下降

国家发改委产业政策司副司长夏农表示,从总体上看,中国服务业发展滞后的状况并没有根本转变,2007年中国服务业占GDP的比重仍然在持续下降。特别是近年来,服务业占GDP的比重持续下降,2006年服务业增加值占GDP的比重比2005年下降了0．5个百分点,2007年比2006年又下降了0．3个百分点,为完成“十一五”规划提出的服务业占GDP的比重提高3个百分点的目标增加了难度。     

完善养老保障体系 提升居民消费水平

正居民消费需求不足,是制约我国经济健康持续发展的重要因素。我国居民最终消费支出占GDP的比重从1990年的48.85%逐渐下降到2012年的35.98%,已成为世界上消费率最低的国家之一。养老保险制度是影响居民消费的重要因素,完善这一制度是提升居民消费水平的有效途径之一。一、我国基本养老保险制度现状     

我国城镇居民住房消费水平研究

一、我国城镇居民住房消费水平现状　　过去我国城镇居民的住房是由国家包下来的 ,居民只需支付象征性的少量租金 ,因此在居民消费支出中住房消费只占很小的比重。自城镇住房制度改革以来 ,国家逐步改变了居民住房供应的方式 ,实行住房商品化政策 ,居民住房消费比重有所提高 ,但其总体水平还是比较低的 (见表 1)。　　表 1中国城镇居民住房消费支出比重年份 1985198819891990 19911992 1993 1994 199519961997住房支出比重 (% ) 0 .950 .70 0 .70 0 .680 .690 .781.0 4 1.0 12 .92 3 .163 .55　　资料来源 :《中国统计年鉴 1998》。　　从表…     

财政政策与需求结构失衡——解析当前居民消费不足的财政因素

需求结构失衡是我国经济健康稳定发展必须正视的一个基本问题。失衡的需求结构一方面使经济运行的内在稳定性下降,另一方面居民消费需求占GDP比重的持续走低与中国经济高速增长不相协调。与社会发展的福祉要义也不相一致。多年来。尽管将扩大内需。特别是提升居民消费需求作为政府经济工作的首要任务和基本方针，但需求结构失衡问题在宏观上并...     

发展中的聊城房地产

房地产业是我国改革开放的产物。1998年以来，随着城镇住房制度改革深入推进，居民住房观念发生重大转变，居民住房消费有效启动，住房商品化的新体制基本确立，房地产市场体系逐步建立，房地产投资持续快速增长。2003年，我市房地产开发完成投资22．65亿元，位于全省第八位，实现增加值26．41亿元，占GDP的比重达到5．8％，已经成为国民经济的支柱产业。     

居民消费与经济增长

我国居民消费在GDP中所占比重连年下降，近年来已达35％左右，经济发展的最终目的是为了居民消费。而居民消费是经济发展及增长的源泉和动力。居民消费的削减会严重制约经济的发展及增长。因此，增加居民消费就成了当务之急。     

解读"稳健财政政策"

1998年以来,我国实行的积极财政政策在克服通货紧缩方面起了重要作用,但是6年来,积极财政政策在拉动GDP增长的同时,在刺激内需方面作用有限,特别是对提高居民消费需求作用不大,居民消费在GDP中所占比重反而呈下降趋势。     

出口对劳动收入份额抑制效应研究——基于微观视角的经验证据

根据大样本企业数据,本文发现出口显著抑制了中国制造业劳动收入份额增长,这为理解中国劳动报酬占GDP比重持续下降的动因提供了微观层面的支撑。具体来说,出口对中国制造业劳动收入份额增长的抑制效应,主要体现在民营企业和港澳台企业中;而在国有企业、集体企业和非港澳台外资企业中表现得不显著。这些结果表明,中国制造业企业特殊的出口模式是中国宏观层面劳动收入份额持续下降的主要推手之一。促进中国制造业出口附加值的提升,是扭转劳动报酬占比持续下降的核心举措。     

中国服务业比重变化的因素分解——兼与日、韩的国际比较

基于投入产出法,本文从需求角度分别考察了消费、投资、净出口、中间投入和价格等因素对中国服务业比重变化的影响大小,并与日本、韩国的经验进行比较。中国数据的分解结果表明,价格和居民消费结构是服务业比重上升的最重要因素,中间投入和政府消费是服务业比重下降的最重要因素,其他因素的影响则较小。日本和韩国的分解结果显示,价格和居民消费结构一直都对服务业比重的上升有重要影响,中间投入和投资的影响则与经济发展阶段密切相关。因此,在"十二五"及中长期内,中国服务业在GDP中所占比重将继续保持当前上升态势。     

住房价格、社会保障支出和居民消费——基于面板门槛模型的实证分析

党的十九大报告提出了改善住房制度、加强社会保障和完善消费体制等一系列要求,这些热点问题之间不是孤立的,而是存在着内在的联系。为此,基于不确定性视角,将社会保障支出水平纳入分析框架研究发现,住房价格上涨通过社会保障支出对居民消费产生正向影响,与原有住房价格通过收入视角对居民消费产生的效应相叠加,使住房价格对居民消费产生的总效应呈现非线性关系。在此基础上,以地方政府社会保障支出水平作为门槛变量,建立关于房价和居民消费率关系的面板门槛模型,以我国2007—2015年省际面板数据为样本进行实证分析,结果表明：社会保障水平的变化使得住房价格对于居民消费率的影响存在显著的单门槛效应。当社会保障支出水平小于其门槛值时,住房价格上涨对居民消费率有较强的抑制效应,两者之间呈现显著的负相关关系;当社会保障水平超过门槛值后,住房价格上涨对居民消费率的抑制效应明显减弱。     

DID INEQUALITY CAUSE THE U.S. FINANCIAL CRISIS?

In his widely discussed book ‘Fault Lines’ (2010), Raghuram Rajan argues that many low and middle income consumers have reduced their saving and increased debt since income inequality started to soar in the United States in the early 1980s. This has temporarily kept private consumption and employment high, but it also contributed to the creation of a credit bubble. This surge in household indebtedness turned out to be unsustainable in the financial crisis starting in 2007. Although Rajan and others emphasize the role of government in promoting credit to those households with declining relative (permanent) incomes, other strands of the literature have focused more explicitly on the implications of rising inequality for aggregate demand and households’ demand for credit. These differences in emphasis may explain why the literature on the inequality‐crisis nexus appears somewhat disparate, even though the various strands are far from mutually exclusive but rather complement each other. We therefore place the ‘Rajan hypothesis’ in the context of competing theories of consumption, and survey the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on household behaviour. We conclude that the empirical evidence calls for a renaissance of the relative income hypothesis of consumption.     

The consumption–investment decision of a prospect theory household: A two-period model

This study extends the literature on portfolio choice under prospect theory preferences by introducing a two-period life cycle model, where the sufficiently loss averse household decides on optimal consumption and investment in a portfolio with one risk-free and one risky asset. The optimal solution depends primarily on whether the household’s present value of the consumption reference levels is below, equal to, or above the present value of its endowment income. Reference levels below the endowment income are associated with the self-enhancement motive. In this case, the household avoids relative losses in consumption in any present or future state of nature (good or bad). As a result the degree of loss aversion does not directly affect optimal consumption and risk taking activity. Reference levels equal to the endowment income are associated with the belonging motive. An example would be a household comparing to others that belong to the same social class. In this case the household’s optimal consumption is the reference consumption and the household will not invest in the risky asset. Finally, reference levels above the endowment income are associated with the self-improvement motive (or high aspirations). For such high reference levels, households cannot avoid experiencing a relative loss in consumption, either now or in the future. As a result, loss aversion directly affects consumption and risky investment.     

Determinants of credit to households: An approach using the life-cycle model

This paper applies a life-cycle model with individual income uncertainty in order to investigate the determinants of credit to households. We show that the household credit to GDP ratio depends on the lending-deposit interest rate spread, individual income uncertainty, and individual income persistence. We subsequently provide empirical evidence for the prediction of a theoretical model on the basis of data from OECD and EU countries.     

Institutional versus non-institutional credit to agricultural households in India: Evidence on impact from a national farmers’ survey

A goal of agricultural policy in India has been to reduce farmers’ dependence on informal credit. To that end, recent initiatives are focused explicitly on rural areas and have a positive impact on the flow of agricultural credit. Despite the significance of the above initiatives in enhancing the flow of institutional credit to agriculture, the links between institutional credit and net farm income and consumption expenditures in India are not very well documented. Using large, national farm household level data and IV 2SLS estimation methods, we investigate the role of institutional farm credit on farm income and farm household consumption expenditures. Findings show that, in India, formal credit does indeed play a critical role in increasing both net farm income and per capita monthly household expenditures of Indian farm families. Finally, we find that, in the presence of formal credit, social safety net programs like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) may have unintended consequences. In particular, MGNREGA reduces both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures. On the other hand, in the presence of formal credit, the Public Distribution System may increase both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures.     

The asymmetric behavior of household consumption under the business cycle

In this study, we examine whether and to what extent the pattern of household consumption is asymmetrically sensitive to economic changes. We use a threshold model with error correction to characterize household consumption under the business cycle. Using data from the 1979–2014 Survey of Family Income and Expenditure in Taiwan, we find that household consumption has pro-cyclical characteristics during the business cycle. More importantly, household consumption responds asymmetrically to economic fluctuations such that changes in consumption tend to be larger during expansions than during downturns. Furthermore, the nature of this asymmetry differs across household income quantiles.     

我国劳动收入份额下降影响因素分析

利用中国省际面板数据实证分析了近年来中国劳动收入份额持续下降的影响因素,结果表明,二元经济结构的强度和人力资本均与劳动收入份额之间呈显著负相关。基于此,认为要扭转劳动收入份额下降的趋势,根本途径是消除二元经济结构,通过提高农业的比较劳动生产率和降低城乡收入差距来加快向一元经济结构过渡。     

基于灰色关联理论的旅游业影响因子分析——以浙江省为例

利用灰色关联分析法对浙江省2005-2010年的旅游产业进行了定量分析,发现浙江省旅游业影响因子从大到小的关联排序为:国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值、城镇家庭收入、旅客周转量、客运量、在校大学生人数、星级饭店数、运输线路距离、广播电视覆盖率。通过建立GM(1,1)模型,对浙江省国内旅游收入和国际创汇进行了短期预测。     

剔除通胀因素后中国人均消费支出的实证分析

根据一般消费理论,收入和价格是决定消费两个主要因素。根据1980-2006年我国消费样本数据建立了我国消费模型,通过EVIEWS软件利用OLS方法进行参数估计,并对模型进行了检验。经过计量分析得知我国人均消费水平受GDP影响,且人均消费水平与人均CGDP呈明显线性关系。若我国人均GDP增长1%,则人均居民消费水平约增加0.71%。滞后的人均消费水平对我国当年的人均消费水平的影响是不显著的。     

Forecasting GDP growth with NIPA aggregates: In search of core GDP

In addition to GDP, which is measured using expenditure data, the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPAs) provide a variety of measures of economic activity, including gross domestic income and other aggregates that exclude one or more of the components that make up GDP. Similarly to the way in which economists have attempted to use core inflation—which excludes volatile energy and food prices—to predict headline inflation, the omission of GDP components may be useful in extracting a signal as to where GDP is going. We investigate the extent to which these NIPA aggregates constitute “core GDP.” In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise using a novel real-time dataset of NIPA aggregates, we find that consumption growth and the growth of GDP excluding inventories and trade have historically outperformed a canonical univariate benchmark for forecasting GDP growth, suggesting that these are promising measures of core GDP growth.