全要素生产率对中国地区经济增长与波动的影响

本文在重新估算1978～2011年中国30个省区市资本、劳动与实际产出数据的基础上,采用了非参数的Malmquist生产率指数法测算了各省区市各年度全要素生产率水平、各年度资本与劳动要素份额等变量及其变化情况,并测算了改革开放以来中国经济各阶段TFP增长及其子项目对实际经济增长的贡献、TFP增长率与潜在增长率及经济波动的相关性。研究发现,1979～2011年期间,对全要素生产率增长起主要作用的是技术进步。而技术效率的恶化对全要素生产率增长起着抑制作用,技术进步是各地区全要素生产率增长的主要支撑力量,中、西部相对东部地区的技术效率相对东部地区的持续恶化,是导致中、西部与东部的全要素生产率增长差距扩大的主要原因。随着资本对中国经济增长贡献的增大,许多地区的TFP增长率甚至绝对水平下降,特别是纯技术效率恶化,经济增长日益依靠不断扩大的资本投入。TFP增长的波动与GDP的波动高度相关。而TFP增长的长期趋势与资本增长率的长期趋互补,分别与GDP的长期趋势即潜在增长率保持一定程度的相关性。由于2008年以来,许多省份的潜在增长率开始下降,资本对经济增长的推动作用逐渐减弱,只有不断通过制度改革、技术研发等方式提升技术水平。优化资源配置,不断提升TFP增长水平,才能保持经济的长期持续增长。     

TFP增长对中国城市经济增长与波动的影响——基于264个地级及地级以上城市数据

本文利用1990～2011年中国264个地级及地级以上城市投入产出数据,分析了全要素生产率（TFP）增长及相关要素对经济增长的贡献,并分区域分析全要素生产率及要素增长及波动对经济增长的影响,得出如下结论并提出政策建议：（1）264个地级及地级以上城市1990～2011年全要素生产率增长近些年呈下降趋势,需要采取措施提高全要素生产率水平,提高全要素生产率增长对经济增长的贡献率。（2）尤其要提高东部TFP增长水平。东部地区GDP增长率和TFP增长高度正相关（尤其是第三阶段）,说明东部地区提高TFP增长对GDP潜在增长率有促进作用。（3）提高中、西部固定资本存量水平。中、西部地区GDP增长率-9固定资本存量的增长率有正相关性．说明中、西部地区仍然可以通过提高固定资本存量的方式提高GDP潜在增长率。（4）提高劳动增长率。全国GDP增长率趋势值与劳动增长率趋势值高度正相关,提高劳动增长率也可以提高潜在增长率。     

中国东部沿海地区全要素碳生产率动态面板数据分析

文章利用2001—2015年我国东部沿海各地区投入和产出数据,运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法测算各地区全要素碳生产率变化的Malmquist指数并将其分解,再利用动态面板数据的分析方法,对全要素碳生产率影响因素进行实证分析。研究发现:2001—2015年,我国东部沿海地区全要素碳生产率指数呈现波动上升的趋势,少数地区全要素碳生产率水平较低,各地区每年全要素碳生产率不稳定;我国东部沿海地区全要素碳生产率指数年均增长率为5.4%,其中技术进步年均增长率为4.2%,技术效率年均增长率为1.2%,全要素碳生产率提高主要是由技术进步引起;产业结构、能源利用效率、能源消费结构和城市化水平与全要素碳生产率呈负相关,对外开放程度和创新能力与全要素碳生产率呈正相关。     

中部地区物流产业生产效率及其环境影响因素分析

文章利用Dea-malmqusit指数方法对中部六省2000—2011年间物流产业生产效率进行测定,然后采用Tobit模型分析其环境影响因素。实证表明:中部地区物流产业生产效率实现了8.1%的全要素生产率增长率;技术效率、技术进步实现增长,技术进步对全要素生产率增长率贡献更大;GDP、交通基础设施、产业结构对生产效率影响最大。加快中部地区经济快速发展、完善交通基础设施建设和优化产业结构升级对于提高中部地区物流产业生产效率具有重要作用。     

技术效率、全要素增长率与地区间经济增长差异——以内蒙古为例

本文以内蒙古为例,使用随机前沿模型,估算了不同地区的技术效率,并对全要素生产率(TFP)增长率进行分解。研究结果表明:(1)技术效率和TFP与一个地区的经济增长呈正向变动关系。(2)城市化率、第二产业占GDP比重、人力资本水平等提高技术效率,国有工业产值和财政支出占GDP比重降低了技术效率。(3)整体而言,各地区TFP增长主要依靠技术进步,技术效率和规模经济效率都显著不足。     

东、西部地区1996—2005年全要素生产率变动分析

文章在分析比较了全要素生产率不同估算方法的基础上,估算出了我国1996—2005年间东、西部地区的全要素生产率增长率,并对不同地区的全要素生产率增长和经济增长源泉做了简要分析。分析表明：实施西部大开发战略后,我国东部地区全要素生产率发展呈现一种相对下降的趋势;我国西部地区的全要素生产率呈现出一种相对上升的趋势,这种上升的趋势要好于东部地区下降的趋势。具体分析不同地区全要素生产率增长的源泉会发现,东部地区全要素生产率增长是技术进步和技术效率共同作用的结果,而西部地区的全要素生产率更多的是技术效率推动的结果。     

中国服务业全要素生产率增长的实证分析

本文采用非参数Malmquist指数方法实证分析了中国服务业全要素生产率的增长状况,并将其分解为技术效率和技术进步。结果表明,1990-2003年中国服务业全要素生产率的平均增长率为0.12%,主要原因是技术进步水平的提高,但技术效率下降产生的负面影响也不可忽视,不同时期技术效率和技术进步对中国服务业全要素生产率增长的贡献存在一定差异;同时,东中西部地区之间和地区内部服务业全要素生产率的增长率也存在显著差异,主要原因是技术进步水平不同。     

东中西部经济增长中要素作用的比较分析

由于近年来我国东中西部地区的经济差距呈现扩大趋势 ,本文将从经济增长中的要素作用这一方面 ,运用经济增长理论 ,以新经济增长模型为基础 ,对东中西部各地区 1 978— 2 0 0 2年劳动、资本、技术的增长率及对GDP的贡献进行分析 ,比较东中西部地区在要素投入增长、全要素生产率增长对经济增长贡献方面的差异 ,分析造成各地区经济增长差异的主要原因。     

技术进步偏向与中国工业行业全要素生产率增长

文章利用CES生产函数分析了技术进步偏向与全要素生产率增长之间的关系,运用1978—2011年中国工业行业数据核算全要素生产率增长和度量技术进步偏向情况。结果显示:1987年后我国工业及大多数行业技术进步明显偏向资本。工业全要素生产率的整体增长率比较低且1990年后主要呈下降趋势,其主要原因是劳动生产效率的上升速度小于技术进步偏向资本的速度,且资本生产效率下降的速度大于技术进步偏向资本的速度。同时,大多数行业资本偏向型技术进步越突出,则行业全要素生产率增长下降越明显。这说明我国工业及行业技术偏向的选择并非是适宜技术。     

效率增进、技术进步及高技术产业经济的动态增长——基于随机前沿模型

基于随机前沿模型(SFA),测算了1997—2008年我国30个省级地区高技术产业相对技术效率、全要素生产率增长率。研究表明,我国高技术产业技术效率总体水平不高;区域效率差异显著,东部地区相对技术效率明显高于中、西部地区;样本期间内高技术产业全要素生产率增长率波幅不大,增长趋势尚不明显;全要素生产率增长的根本动因在于技术效率,高技术产业仍不具有规模经济性。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.