中国资本所得经济税负的定性研究——基于当前税制结构和经济环境的分析

在当前税制结构下,中国资本所得经济税负大小主要由增值税、消费税、营业税、企业所得税和个人所得税决定,并受到经济环境及由其决定的税负转嫁状况的影响。增值税、消费税、营业税税负会向前转嫁,企业所得税短期很难转嫁但长期可以,个人所得税税负转嫁依不同情况而有差别。长期看,在取得环节个人资本所得可能直接承担个人所得税,企业资本却不会直接承担企业所得税,在最终消费或积累环节,个人和企业的资本所得资本所得都承担了经过转嫁的增值税、消费税、营业税、企业所得税。     

The Impact of Financial Development on Energy Demand: Evidence from China

An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach and vector error correction model (VECM) are used here to better understand the role of financial development in energy demand in China. Based on data from 1980 to 2014, the ARDL bounds approach yields empirical evidence that confirms the existence of long-run relationships among energy demand per capita, gross domestic product per capita, urbanization, economic structure, and financial development. The VECM framework shows the direction of Granger causality that combines the short run and the long run between the variables. The results suggest a feedback effect between financial development and energy demand per capita in the long run. However, financial development Granger causes per capita energy demand without a feedback effect in the short run. The results of this research may be of great importance for decision makers as they develop policies on energy and economic growth.     

城乡金融非均衡发展对居民收入差距影响研究——基于中国1991-2015年的数据分析

基于中国1991-2015年数据,利用时间序列分析方法,考量城乡金融非均衡发展对居民收入差距的影响.结果表明:城乡金融规模、金融结构、金融效率差异以及城乡财政支持差异、非农产业结构水平与城乡居民收入差距存在长期稳定关系;城乡金融规模差异是直接引起城乡居民收入水平差异的格兰杰原因;城乡之间在金融规模、金融结构、金融效率方面存在差异,对城乡居民收入差距都有拉大的作用;短期内城乡金融结构差异作用明显,长期内金融效率差异作用较大,而金融规模差异、财政支持差异在长期和短期内都起作用,非农产业结构水平在长期内对城乡居民收入差距有很强的负作用.     

Dynamic Effects of Financial Openness on Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

This paper examines the dynamic effects of financial integration and foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth and macroeconomic uncertainty. Using the pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag approach to annual data over 1975-2007 for ninety developing countries, we find that financial integration contributes to faster economic growth and lower growth uncertainty in the long run. The evidence also shows considerable heterogeneity in the short run. In addition, we find that FDI impedes output growth but mitigates uncertainty in output and consumption growth in the long run. In the short run, FDI has an average negative effect on growth and negligible effect on growth uncertainty, but there are large cross-country differences in response to FDI integration.     

个人所得税、城镇居民收入与消费关系实证研究

运用动态计量方法对个人所得税和城镇居民收入对城镇居民消费的影响进行的实证分析表明:长期来看收入是影响城镇居民消费行为的主要因素,但由于平滑消费倾向、收支预期的不确定性,在短期城镇居民收入增加对消费的促进作用较小;在现阶段,由于个税相对规模、征收范围、征收率、纳税方式的制约,个人所得税并未真正成为制约城镇居民消费的因素;在长期城镇居民消费表现出棘轮效应。     

Sustainable economic growth in the European Union: The role of ICT,venture capital,and innovation

Over the past 30 years, the economies in Europe have undergone major transformations that have been powered by diffusion of information and communication technology (ICT), intensification of innovation, and reforms in the financial sector to support innovative endeavors. The primary objective of this study was to examine the causal relationships among ICT diffusion, innovation diffusion, venture capital investment, and economic growth for 25 countries in Europe for the period from 1989 to 2016. Using a vector error‐correction model, the study examines the underlying short‐run and long‐run relationships for the above variables. The empirical analysis shows that in the long run, venture capital investment, ICT diffusion, and innovation diffusion have significant impacts on economic growth in Europe. However, in the short run, the direction of the causality varies depending on the specific measures of ICT diffusion and innovation diffusion that are utilized. Results from this study provide valuable insights into the types of policies that will contribute to sustainable economic growth in Europe.     

改革开放后财政农业投入对农民增收的效应分析

从长期来看,财政农业投入对农民增收具有显著的正面效应,但短期内这一影响并不显著。不过,中央和地方财政农业投入对农民增收的贡献度有所不同,中央财政农业投入效果更佳。为此应继续加大财政对农业的投入力度,优化财政农业投入结构,提高财政资源配置和使用效率;明晰中央和地方财政的投入事权,理顺财政投入资金的管理体制;完善财政投入方式,提高农民直接补贴比重。     

经济复苏进程中国际金价缘何大幅上涨

金融危机过后,在世界经济的复苏进程中,国际黄金价格出现大幅度上涨,其主要原因是美元贬值的压力、通货膨胀的威胁、复苏进程的不确定性、国际黄金市场供求关系的变化。黄金价格短期内上行趋势不会改变,但长期看不可持续。     

人民币外升内贬探源与未来汇率走势分析

2007年夏美国次贷危机的爆发助推人民币内外价值发生偏离，而在此背后，我国经济转型阶段的发展失衡才是人民币外升内贬的深层次原因。中短期内，随着美国次贷危机的逐渐停息，人民币“外升内贬”的趋势总体可能通过国内通货膨胀的逐步回落而得以缓解。长期来看，随着我国逐步实现经济金融和内外经济的均衡发展，人民币内外价值将逐渐趋于统一，届时将表现为与经济增长相适应的温和通货膨胀以及人民币汇率的整体稳定。     

The impacts of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns

The impact of Bitcoin futures introduction on the underlying Bitcoin volatility has been a controversial topic. Conflicting results had been obtained from different sample periods and methodologies. To address this debate, this study examines the impact of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns in the short and long run. Using exponential GARCH models, we introduce a dummy in the variance equation to capture the changes in the volatility after the introduction of Bitcoin futures. We find that after the introduction, spot return volatility decreases in the short run, but increases in the long run. Besides, in the short run, there exists an inverse leverage effect before and after the introduction; in the long run, the inverse leverage effect before the introduction changes to a usual level effect after the introduction. Finally, we examine whether greater futures trading activity, proxied by trading volume and open interest, is associated with greater Bitcoin volatility. To do so, we decompose each proxy into expected and unexpected components and document that, in the long run, Bitcoin volatility covaries positively with unexpected futures trading volume, but negatively with unexpected futures open interest.     

次贷危机下的美国经济走势及其对全球经济的影响

从指标趋势看,引发此次次贷危机的美国房地产市场调整仍未结束,美信贷紧缩状况的持续对房地产市场和整体经济的复苏构成压力,巨额资金的救市措施从短期看更在于提振信心,从长期看其效果有待观察。全球经济亦将受到美经济衰退的拖累,但与其他经济体相比,美国经济仍显得更有弹性。     

Borrowing to Finance Public Investment? The ‘Golden Rule of Public Finance’ Reconsidered in an Endogenous Growth Setting*

In this paper, we look for long‐run and short‐run effects of fiscal deficits on economic growth and welfare in a standard endogenous growth model. We show that, under very general hypotheses, the ‘golden rule of public finance’, which allows a government to run public‐investment‐oriented fiscal deficits, leads to a lower balanced‐growth path in the long run, and eventually in the short run, compared with balanced‐budget rules. Welfare effects are more difficult to assess, and depend on the form of the utility function. Our model shows that debt rules such as the golden rule may improve (if the consumption elasticity of substitution is ‘low’) or weaken (if the consumption elasticity of substitution is ‘high’) intertemporal welfare. Consequently, a balanced‐budget rule does not necessarily dominate debt rules from the point of view of welfare, while it does from the point of view of long‐run economic growth.     

Linkages between the ADR market and home country macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence in the context of the BRICs

This study investigates the long-run and short-run lead–lag linkages between American Depositary Receipt (ADR) prices and home country economic fundamentals in the context of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China). In order to obtain an indication of the segmentation or integration between the ADR market and its underlying stock market, the same investigation is also undertaken in relation to the latter. We find that in the long run, economic growth positively drives ADR returns in the cases of Brazil and China but negatively in the cases of Russia and India. In the short-run, economic growth and money supply lead ADR prices but ADR prices predict inflation and oil prices with regard to Brazil while in Russia, oil prices predict ADR returns but the ADR market leads monetary policies and real economic activity. As regards India, in the short run, oil prices and economic growth lead ADR prices but ADR prices predict money supply changes. Finally, with respect to China, the ADR index lead economic growth and inflation but economic variables do not predict ADR prices in the short-run. In the long run, with the exception of China, we find the same kind of linkages between these economic fundamentals and the underlying stock market although the linkages are somewhat stronger. The short run dynamics for ADRs with respect to economic fundamentals are, however, different for that of the respective home country stock market. This would imply that the ADR market and its underlying stock market, as far as the BRICs are concerned, are integrated in the long-run but not in the short-run.     

中国农村金融发展与农民收入增长--基于综合指数分析

对于中国农村金融发展与农民收入间关系的实证检验,迄今尚无定论。借鉴时间序列因子分析,本文考察了农村金融发展综合指数与农民收入之间的关系。研究发现,中国农村金融发展与农民收入间有单向格兰杰因果关系。协整方程表明,在长期内,农村金融发展水平每提高1个单位,实际农民收入可以提高48.1%。MS-VAR模型表明,在短期内,农村金融发展依然能够促进农民收入增长,当国家实施农村偏向型经济政策时,这一促进效果更加明显。     

湖南水污染税的税制设计及征收效应的一般均衡分析

湖南省"两型社会"的深化建设、首批环境税的开征试点、湘江污染的重点治理等事件将湖南省水污染税改革推向了历史的舞台。借鉴国外水污染税开征经验,文章系统地设计了湖南省水污染税征收的基本框架,运用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型模拟征收水污染税对宏观经济、产业结构、污染物减排等产生的影响。结果表明:开征水污染税宏观经济受损的长期影响要大于短期;对绝大部分行业都带来了不同程度的负面影响,其中短期合成材料制造业产出下降最大,而长期毛纺织和染整精加工业受损最大;然而征收水污染税减少重金属等污染物排放,氨氮、化学需氧量下降尤为显著。     

银行分支机构、经济增长与城乡收入差距

本文基于VAR模型,运用协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验实证分析了银行分支机构变动对经济增长和城乡收入差距的长短期影响。研究结果表明：一是精简银行分支机构数量长期有利于我国经济增长,但是短期效果不显著,1998年后推动的国有商业银行分支机构撤并改革对于促进我国的经济增长有重要意义;二是精简银行分支机构数量长期来看会扩大城乡收入差距,在短期内精简银行分支机构却有利于城乡收入差距的缩小;三是1998年的国有银行机构调整是一种＂制度性进步＂。因此,需要进一步深化我国银行机构改革,在提升银行机构经营效率的同时,加大对农村地区的银行机构布局力度。     

二元经济结构下我国新型农村资本支持体系研究

长期以来,我国在二元经济结构的基础上形成了二元资本结构,农村资本通过各种渠道不合理地流向城市;在市场机制作用下,资本趋利性使资本外流进一步加剧,在农村形成了巨大的资本缺口,致使城乡经济发展失衡.在现有的二元经济结构下,必须构建新型的农村资本支持体系,该体系主要由财政支持体系、价格支持体系、金融支持体系、集体和农户支持体系以及国际资本支持体系等部分有机组成.通过构建农村资本支持体系,最终消除城乡二元资本结构,建立城乡统一的资本支持体系,促进城乡经济的协调发展,实现我国经济的全面小康.     

"两税合一"对企业融资结构选择的效应分析——以山东省为例

"两税合一"是指内、外资企业执行统一的所得税税率。本文通过对山东省部分企业的调查发现:在现行融资格局下,企业融资结构选择对名义税率变动的敏感性较弱,但与实际税率却存在符合理论分析的相关性,而且短期内税收政策由于受融资渠道和投资需求等因素的屏蔽作用,其税率调整幅度不足以构成对企业融资方式选择的重大影响,长期则会推动企业融资结构的调整。     

Valuation Effects of Short Sale Constraints: the Case of Corporate Takeovers

We examine the relation between the degree of short sale constraints for acquiring firms' equity and post takeover stock performance. We find that negative long‐run abnormal returns appear to decline (in economic and statistical terms) as the extent and persistence of institutional block‐holder ownership increase, after accounting for the size, book‐to‐market and method of payment effects. In the spirit of Miller (1977) , such evidence implies that the degree of short sale constraints serves as an important determinant of acquiring firms' short‐run overpricing. It appears that the presence of concentrated institutional presence mitigates and in most cases eliminates, through effective arbitrage, any short‐run overpricing that may be responsible for the long‐run underperformance of acquirers, preserving in this way efficiency in the takeover markets.     

Private Equity and Long‐Run Investment: The Case of Innovation

A long‐standing controversy is whether leveraged buyouts (LBOs) relieve managers from short‐term pressures from public shareholders, or whether LBO funds themselves sacrifice long‐term growth to boost short‐term performance. We examine one form of long‐run activity, namely, investments in innovation as measured by patenting activity. Based on 472 LBO transactions, we find no evidence that LBOs sacrifice long‐term investments. LBO firm patents are more cited (a proxy for economic importance), show no shifts in the fundamental nature of the research, and become more concentrated in important areas of companies' innovative portfolios.