Institutional effects on information content of US and French management earnings forecasts: Evidence from market reactions and analyst revisions

The United States and France are both most developed economies in the world. Their socio-economic institutions, however, are very different. These differences are indications of their dichotomous legal regimes: common law in the US versus code law in France. The political influence of these legal regimes, in turn, leads to a dichotomized classification of accounting systems: the British-American Model and the French Continental Model. This study extends these institutional effects into the field of management earnings forecast. We find that earnings forecasts by French firms are less informative than those made by US firms matched-up by industry and firm size. We also compare US and French financial analysts' revisions of their forecasts following the management forecasts. We find that revisions by French analysts are more influenced by management forecasts. Our findings are consistent with prior studies that argue that information asymmetry in code-law countries is largely resolved through private information channels, rendering less information content in management announcements and less demand and incentives for original research by financial analysts.     

Private credit in 129 countries

We investigate cross-country determinants of private credit, using new data on legal creditor rights and private and public credit registries in 129 countries. Both creditor protection through the legal system and information-sharing institutions are associated with higher ratios of private credit to gross domestic product, but the former is relatively more important in the richer countries. An analysis of legal reforms shows that credit rises after improvements in creditor rights and in information sharing. Creditor rights are remarkably stable over time, contrary to the hypothesis that legal rules are converging. Finally, legal origins are an important determinant of both creditor rights and information-sharing institutions. The analysis suggests that public credit registries, which are primarily a feature of French civil law countries, benefit private credit markets in developing countries.     

Recognition of Debt Restructuring and Resolution Measures under the European Union Regulatory Framework

Under the proposed Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), member states will be required to provide for bail‐in powers to restructure failing financial institutions. At this moment, the Dutch, French, UK and German legislator already provide public authorities with resolution powers. In order to be effective in debt restructuring of failing (non‐)financial institutions, the measures taken by the resolution authorities need to be enforceable (before all courts) and effective in the entire European Union. Given the fact that not all the firm's debt is issued in the home jurisdiction, the question of recognition is critically important. In regard of non‐financial firms, the Dutch, UK, French and German jurisdictions provide for court proceedings to impose a collective settlement reached by the debtor and the majority of its creditors binding on the opposing minority. Out‐of‐insolvency plans approved by the court are recognised under the Brussels I Regulation. If the EU Insolvency Regulation reform proposal is adopted, these court‐approved debt restructuring plans in insolvency situations will be subject to the recognition regime of this regulation. Credit institutions, insurance undertakings, investment undertakings holding funds or securities for third parties and collective investment undertakings are excluded from the scope of the Insolvency Regulation whereas the scope of application of the Reorganisation and Winding Up Directive is limited to credit institutions. The regime under the future BRRD and the Single Resolution Mechanism is limited to credit institutions. National (private international) law determines the recognition of resolution measures taken by the authorities of another member state. Copyright © 2014 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

商业银行抵押贷款问题调查

抵押是商业银行重要的信用风险缓释技术之一。本报告分析了本轮经济增长中抵押贷款的增长趋势及其风险,比较了国内13家金融机构内部有关抵押的管理制度以及各监管当局现行的抵押监管要求和香港金融管理局抵押品监管指引,指出商业银行要根据抵押资产价格走势调整抵押率、准确定价、充足拨备,避免经营的剧烈起伏。监管当局也要加强经济景气分析和有关抵押资产价格走势分析,对抵押率进行监测,并制定有关抵押问题的监管指引。     

韩国银行开展中小企业信贷业务的实践及其借鉴意义

韩国中小企业信贷业务具有政府主导下的中小企业信贷支持体系、专业银行和信用担保基金的突出作用、大银行的主体地位及持续的产品创新等特点，但同时也存在政策性金融机构异化、商业可持续发展难以为继等问题。借鉴韩国的经验，在中小企业信贷业务发展的初期阶段，通过行政干预和经济调控，充分发挥大银行的主渠道作用，改变银行一企业经济规模应相互匹配的片面观点，建立专门的中小企业信贷机构和以信用保证基金为核心的中小企业信用体系，强化风险的精细量化管理。这些措施将有助于树立工商银行在中小企业信贷领域的主力银行地位，并成为其转变经营方式的重要路径。     

韩国银行开展中小企业信贷业务的实践及其借鉴意义

韩国中小企业信贷业务具有政府主导下的中小企业信贷支持体系、专业银行和信用担保基金的突出作用、大银行的主体地位及持续的产品创新等特点,但同时也存在政策性金融机构异化、商业可持续发展难以为继等问题。借鉴韩国的经验,在中小企业信贷业务发展的初期阶段,通过行政干预和经济调控,充分发挥大银行的主渠道作用,改变银行-企业经济规模应相互匹配的片面观点,建立专门的中小企业信贷机构和以信用保证基金为核心的中小企业信用体系,强化风险的精细量化管理。这些措施将有助于树立工商银行在中小企业信贷领域的主力银行地位,并成为其转变经营方式的重要路径。     

农村信用社贷款利率定价面临的挑战与对策

本文以广西北海市农村信用社为例,将其贷款利率水平与全国金融机构的贷款利率水平进行比较.结论表明,农村信用社与其他金融机构的贷款利率之间是一种负相关关系,两者存在比较稳定的竞争状态.但由于农村信用社贷款利率定价受到内外部因素的制约,面对其他金融机构进入农村信贷市场的竞争,以高利率为支撑的农村信用社难以适应利率完全市场化的...     

加强农村信用社金融统计报表质量的实践探索

长期以来农村信用社一直是金融支持“三农”发展的主要力量,因此农村信用社的数据质量对一个地区整体的金融支持“三农”数据质量会有重要影响。为提高农村信用社金融统计报表的质量,确保对本地区金融支持“三农”情况的准确把握,人民银行通化市中心支行通过督促辖内金融机构认真落实人民银行各项金融统计制度,积极推进金融统计标准化工作,并针对辖区内农村信用社报表错误比例较高的现象开发了《农村信用社涉农贷款报表白动生成系统》,该系统可实现对农村信用社贷款逐笔自动筛选、归类,有效甄别农村信用社涉农贷款报表科目归类错误,准确测算辖区涉农贷款规模,为提升整体履职水平创造了有利条件。     

金融危机后有关金融监管改革的理论综述

本文从九个角度综述了金融危机后全球主要金融监管当局关于金融监管改革的代表性文献,包括系统性风险与宏观审慎监管、顺周期性、资本充足率和杠杆率、期限转化和流动性、薪酬激励机制、金融安全网措施和对问题机构的处置机制、信用证券化和信用衍生品市场、信用评级机构、金融监管的理论基础等。本文旨在梳理金融监管改革的最新进展,力图提炼出有待深入研究的课题。     

Trade Credit, Financial Intermediary Development, and Industry Growth

Recent work suggests that financial development is important for economic growth, since financial markets more effectively allocate capital to firms with high value projects. For firms in poorly developed financial markets, implicit borrowing in the form of trade credit may provide an alternative source of funds. We show that industries with higher dependence on trade credit financing exhibit higher rates of growth in countries with weaker financial institutions. Furthermore, consistent with barriers to trade credit access among young firms, we show that most of the effect that we report comes from growth in the size of preexisting firms.     

Bank soundness and bank lending to new firms during the global financial crisis

This paper examines how the soundness of financial institutions affected bank lending to new firms during the 2008 financial crisis by using a unique firm–bank match‐level dataset of 1,467 unlisted small and medium‐sized enterprises incorporated in Japan. We employ a within‐firm estimator that can control for unobserved firms’ demand for credit through firm ? time fixed effects. The major findings of this paper are the following four points. First, sounder financial institutions may be generally less likely to provide financing to new firms. Second, our results suggest that sounder financial institutions were less likely to provide loans to new firms during the 2008 financial crisis. Third, financial institutions were less likely to provide financing to new firms during such crisis as compared to those with the same soundness during non‐crisis periods. Finally, such lending relationships to new firms that are established during the financial crisis by sounder financial institutions are more likely to be continued than such lending by less sound financial institutions.     

Financial services consumption constraints: Empirical evidence from Rwandan rural households

The concentration of banking and financial institutions in the city and/or urban in any developing countries in general, Rwanda in particular creates various constraints in availing and consuming different financial products and services by the rural households. The article examines the forms and determinants of credit constraint status of rural households of Rwanda and the impact of constraints variables on availing and using the range of financial products and services. The study concludes that 42.5 per cent of the Rwandan rural households surveyed face triple forms of credit constraints including self-imposed constraints, quantity rationing and risk rationing by formal financial institutions. However, quantity rationing is perhaps not as pervasive as self-imposed rationing and risk rationing by the lenders. The results from the empirically tested model revealed that in addition to demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of households, the variables constraining demand and/or supply of financial services with reference to accessibility were significant predictors of households' credit constraints. The study informs on the needs for innovative systems, products and services that would increase access relax credit constraints and improve rural consumers' welfare. The authors conclude that establishing an enabling legal and regulatory environment, providing adequate public goods and physical infrastructure, designing capacity building and technical assistance programs and maintaining political and macroeconomic stability are perhaps major public and policy issues needed for a robust rural financial market.     

Assessing qualitative similarities between financial reporting frameworks using visualization and rules: COREP vs. pillar 3

Financial institutions are struggling with larger volume, more specific and greater frequency of regulatory reporting after the global financial crisis in 2008, especially those that need to report to multiple jurisdictions. To help to improve reporting efficiency, this paper aims to assess the existence of similarities between templates related to credit and counter party credit risk of COREP and Pillar 3 regulatory reporting frameworks by applying Correspondence Analysis and Association Rules Mining. Our results suggest a high degree of overlap between these reporting frameworks, more prominently the three business functions as Front office, Finance and Risk. These patterns can be used as guidance for financial institutions to reshape their reporting architecture.     

中国金融周期:基于信贷配给视角

本文首先基于我国企业层面的数据分析当前我国的信贷配给规则,其次通过理论和实证的方法厘清信贷配给规则与金融周期的内生机制,再次利用信贷配给规则划分我国金融周期,对当前周期进行分析,最后基于金融经济平稳运行的角度,提出完善信贷配给规则的对策建议。本文的主要研究结论如下:一是国有企业和大型企业等经济主体更容易获得银行贷款,反映出当前信贷配给规则的主要特征;二是当前配给规则会对银行不良贷款产生显著的负面影响效应;三是基于信贷配给规则的金融周期仍在相对高位运行,当前信贷配给规则还有深度调整的必要性。     

辅助性金融机构发展与中小企业融资改善：台湾地区的经验与借鉴

我国台湾地区通过发展中小企业信用保证基金、农业信用保证基金、华侨贷款信用保证基金等辅助性金融机构,对改善中小企业融资发挥了较好的作用。中国大陆中小企业信用担保体系目前还存在着机构规模小、资金实力不足、相关制度缺位等不足之处。可借鉴台湾地区辅助性金融机构的经验,由国家财政和金融机构捐资,根据不同类型的中小企业设立全国性的专项担保基金,分别为不同类型的中小企业贷款提供信用保证。     

Understanding the market reaction to shockwaves: Evidence from the failure of Lehman Brothers

The spectacular failure of the 150-year-old investment bank Lehman Brothers on September 15th, 2008 was a major turning point in the global financial crisis that broke out in the summer of 2007. Through the use of stock market data and credit default swap (CDS) spreads, this paper examines investors’ reaction to Lehman's collapse in an attempt to identify a spillover effect on the surviving financial institutions. The empirical analysis indicates that (i) the collateral damage was limited to the largest financial firms; (ii) the institutions most affected were the surviving “non-bank” financial services firms; and (iii) the negative effect was correlated with the financial conditions of the surviving institutions. We also detect significant abnormal jumps in CDS spreads that we interpret as evidence of sudden upward revisions in the market assessment of future default probabilities assigned to the surviving financial firms.     

美国次按问题的实质

次按危机愈演愈烈,给全球金融市场和大型金融机构造成重大损失。该文深入分析了次按危机的深层影响,认为次按危机引致的信贷紧缩已经演变为消费紧缩,打破了美国长期以来借钱消费的兴旺周期,美国过往的消费模式从而经济增长模式已难以为继;次贷危机不仅直接打击美国经济,同时也拖累世界经济增长。文章认为如何解决美国经济的结构性问题以及这个过程会对世界经济产生何种影响,才是解决美国次按问题的实质。     

Do some lenders have information advantages? Evidence from Japanese credit market data

Using detailed Japanese credit data, we test for the existence of a credit market hierarchy. Empirical tests indicate that firms with information problems are more likely to carry higher proportions of relationship loans from main banks than non-main banks, holding constant risk and control factors. We further examine credit specialization on the part of lenders by testing the relationship between client firms' information and risk characteristics and the concentration of loans obtained from depository institutions versus other financial institutions. However, no significant differences in information superiority between these two types of financial institutions are found. We conclude that our evidence supports the credit market hierarchy hypothesis for Japanese main banks in particular but not depository institutions in general.     

引导金融机构加大县域信贷投放力度的思考——以四平市为例

2010年,人民银行和银监会联合下发了《关于鼓励县域法人金融机构新增存款用于当地贷款的考核办法》,旨在引导县域金融机构加大对本地信贷投放的力度,支持县域经济建设。但调查发现,政策实施以来,四平市县域金融机构存贷比例仍呈下降趋势,对当地经济金融发展带来较大负面影响。针对这种情况,应采取措施引导金融机构加大县域信贷投放的力度。     

气候变化冲击下的涉农信用风险——基于2010-2019年256家农村金融机构的实证研究

气候变化可能导致的经济金融风险已经成为学术界关注的热点问题。本文首先分析了气候变化引发涉农金融风险的传导机制,以2010-2019年256家农村金融机构的经营数据为样本,将标准化后的年均气温作为刻画气候变化程度的核心指标,评估农村金融机构所在县域地理单元的气候变化程度对其信用风险的影响。研究发现,年均气温波动对农村金融机构的信用风险水平存在显著影响,且影响呈现阶段性特征;在4个季度中,冬季气温的波动对信用风险的影响最为突出;虽然城商行与农商行、村镇银行均是立足于服务地方经济发展的商业银行,但由于城商行的业务在地域上和行业上更为分散,气候变化未对其信用风险水平产生显著影响。为此,提出了开展压力测试、实施差异化监管和创新风险缓释工具三个方面的对策建议。本文为管理由气候变化导致的涉农信用风险提供了政策启示和决策参考。