非正规金融发展的区域差异及其经济增长效应

中国非正规金融发展呈现出明显的区域差异,这与商业文化发达程度、正规金融对民营企业金融支持力度、民间资金丰裕度等因素有关.利用区域宏观经济数据在新古典经济增长理论框架下对金融发展的经济增长效应进行实证检验,文章发现非正规金融发展的区域差异对经济增长的区域差异具有显著的解释力.通过对金融发展水平指标的重新构建,文章认为正规金融与非正规金融均有显著的经济增长效应.     

中国农村非正规金融发展的收入效应——基于东、中、西部地区面板数据的实证

笔者利用1986年～ 2010年的区域面板数据,实证研究了中国农村非正规金融发展的收入效应.研究表明,东、中、西部农村非正规金融发展对农民收入增长具有显著的促进作用,各区域农村非正规金融在促进农民增收上的效率要普遍高于正规金融;上述效应在不同区域、不同时段差异明显;农村非正规金融发展对低收入者的回报更高,而正规金融发展对高收入者更有利.在此基础上,笔者就农村非正规金融规范发展和农村金融深化改革提出了相关政策建议.     

正规金融、非正规金融对家户福利的影响——来自中国农村的证据

金融抑制是发展中国家所面临的重要约束,其可能给家户福利和生产活动带来损失。金融约束不仅来自于正规金融,也来自于非正规金融。利用区域转换模型,本文从两个方面论证了正规金融与非正规金融对家户福利的不同作用。实证分析表明,正规金融约束的家户采用新的农业生产技术受到限制,非农经营的效应也更低,而社会资本在一定程度上对正规金融形成了替代,弥补了其部分功能。受到非正规金融约束的家户,社会资本的功能被弱化,但采用新的农业生产技术的作用以及参与农业生产合作组织的作用由于得到正规金融的支持而更强。正规金融与非正规金融大致存在一种替代关系,农村正规金融在满足生产发展尤其是非农业生产发展的需要方面发挥着重要作用,而基于社会资本的非正规金融主要对于缓冲收入冲击起着更重要的作用。     

我国农村正规金融与非正规金融效率分析

高效率的金融制度对经济发展提供强有力的资金支持,可以提高经济的总体竞争力,促进经济增长。对农村信用社、农业银行、农业发展银行和邮政储蓄银行等正规金融机构和村镇银行、小额贷款公司等非正规金融组织的效率进行调查,从资金配置效率、适应性效率和运行效率方面进行分析,结果显示：正规金融制度的效率偏低,非正规金融组织的效率偏高;两种金融制度的效率有各自的空间,在规模和范围较小时,非正规金融制度效率更高,而超出一定的发展范围和规模,正规金融制度的优越性则进一步凸显。     

浅谈现阶段中国的农村非正规金融

在正规金融高度发达的人类现代经济社会,非正规金融也呈现出蓬勃发展的强劲势头.特别是在发展中国家的农村经济当中,非正规金融起着越采越重要的作用,促进农村经济的发展与农民生活水平的提高.首先对农村非正规金融作了一个简要的概述,在此基础上深入分析了中国当前农村非正规金融存在的问题,最后针时这些问题,提出了发展中国农村非正规金融的对策及建议.     

农村非正规金融的微观机理与政策测度:国外文献评述

通过对国外文献关于农村非正规金融问题的研究进行概览,本文发现,农村非正规金融不仅能够降低农户借贷的外生交易费用,还能够降低制度性的内生交易费用;农村非正规金融自发生成的各种内在机制具有较高的制度效率,农村非正规金融可以与农村正规金融共存;以家庭为结点的社区网络是农村非正规金融私人治理机制的基础;为了缓解农户贷款难的问题,由发展中国家政府推出的各种扶贫项目的作用却很有限,因而政府要想有效干预农村金融市场,就必须考虑并充分利用农村非正规金融的作用。但已有研究并未定量分析农村非正规金融与正规金融之间的复杂关系,鲜有文献计量农村非正规金融的经济增长效应;相关的理论研究比较零散,尚未形成一致的理论框架。这就为进一步的研究指明了可选方向。     

金融漏损、效率修正与"反哺效应"——中国转轨经济金融低效率与经济高增长研究的新视角

在我国渐进式的转轨经济过程中,在政府强控制金融与高额储蓄条件下,体制内经济体发生金融漏损并由体制外经济顺守,修正了金融初次配置效率,形成了金融低效率与经济高增长并存的结果。理论与实践表明,体制内金融的外向漏损间接支持了体制外经济的成长发展,形成了"反哺效应",构成了一个非正规的经济增长良性循环模式。文章从金融效率与经济增长角度分析了我国转轨过程中的金融漏损、效率修正与经济增长,对我国转轨经济中金融低效率与经济高增长现象进行了分析。文章认为应通过进一步推进国有企业与国有银行产权改革、加快民间金融发展等措施改进与提高我国的金融效率。     

非正规金融与中国经济增长效率——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

本文基于1997—2012年间中国省级面板数据和小额贷款公司样本,在随机前沿模型下研究了非正规金融活跃程度对省际经济增长效率的影响。实证发现:样本期内,催生于中国经济增长与金融抑制并存环境下的非正规金融,对中国经济增长效率有显著的正面影响;以金融中介为代表的金融发展对经济增长效率有促进作用,但力度不大;金融市场直接融资对经济增长效率影响不显著;新型金融机构的出现有利于民间金融阳光化,并显著地促进中国经济增长效率。研究结果支持引导民间金融以规范化形式参与经济建设。     

经济增长受企业寻租及非正规金融的影响研究——基于金融管制的分析

本文通过将金融部门和政府部门纳入罗默的内生增长模型来研究企业寻租、非正规金融及金融管制对经济增长的影响。结果表明:非正规金融的存在提高了企业的融资能力和利润率;加强正规及非正规金融部门的竞争程度有利于存贷利差的缩小和经济增长率的提升;而设租寻租行为会给经济带来负面影响,且租金的增加将阻碍金融竞争。因此,要促进经济增长,应严厉惩治寻租,引导非正规金融健康发展并增强金融体系的竞争程度。     

社会资本视角下的中国金融发展与经济增长关系——基于1997-2008年省际面板数据研究

本文分析了社会资本与金融发展对经济增长的资本积累和技术创新效应,并利用我国31个省（市）1997-2008的面板数据,对社会资本、金融发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。结论表明：社会资本对我国经济增长具有明显的促进作用,而金融发展却阻碍了经济的发展,社会资本与金融发展的互动效应对经济增长起着推动作用。最后本文从政府应注重投资社会资本的角度提出了相关的政策建议。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.