区域农业可持续发展综合评价研究——以浙江省为例

该文以可持续发展理论为指导,构建农业可持续发展综合评价指标体系,评价区域农业可持续发展的综合水平。采用熵值法、模糊数学方法选取了人口、社会、经济、资源、环境5个方面31个指标进行评价,确定指标权重。采用指数和公式计算各年度的综合指标值,评价浙江省农业可持续性发展的状况。研究结果:浙江省农业可持续发展整体水平持续提高,人口、经济、社会呈可持续发展趋势,资源子系统呈非可持续利用态势,环境子系统呈不稳定态势,人口、经济、社会、资源、环境5个子系统处于非协调发展中。     

郑州市水资源承载力综合评价

从水资源、经济、社会和生态环境4个方面选取17个指标构建评价指标体系,使用熵权法确定指标权重,运用TOPSIS模型对郑州市2007—2016年的水资源承载力水平进行综合评价。研究结果表明:(1)样本期内,郑州市水资源承载力综合评价值由0. 3336上升到0. 7007,总体呈稳步上升趋势,水资源承载力等级由"差"提升到"较好";(2)各子系统对水资源综合承载力的贡献逐年上升,其中生态环境子系统和经济子系统的贡献最大,社会子系统贡献相对稳定,而水资源子系统则因郑州市水资源时空分布不均,呈波动变化趋势。     

中国少数民族林区可持续发展能力及策略分析

通过选取可持续发展评价指标,运用AHP分析模型建立可持续发展能力指标体系并进行实证分析,得出少数民族林区可持续发展能力普遍不高的结论。从经济、社会、资源、生态和人口5个方面对中国少数民族林区可持续发展能力进行分析,提出以人的可持续发展为出发点和终极目标、以资源和生态环境的可持续发展为条件和载体、以经济和社会的可持续发展为保障和实现形式来谋求少数民族林区可持续发展的策略建议。     

江苏省水生态与经济耦合协调度评价

随着经济的不断发展,社会经济与水生态环境之间出现了一系列矛盾,开展社会经济与水生态环境协调度研究对实现区域的可持续发展尤为重要。选用耦合协调度模型,选取2015—2019年江苏省社会经济和水生态环境指标,对13个设区市的社会经济发展水平和水生态环境状况进行了综合评价,得到二者的协调发展度水平,并对其进行了等级划分,针对其区域分布特征进行了空间分析。结果表明：2015—2019年,江苏省社会经济与水生态环境耦合度总体呈逐年上升趋势;空间表现上,苏南地区的协调发展度水平最高,苏中、苏北其次,地区耦合度差异较大;总体苏南地区和苏北地区协调发展度的改善程度较大,苏中地区改善程度较小。     

青岛市生态环境可持续发展能力动态评价

以自然一经济一社会复合生态系统原理为基础,从社会进步、经济发展和环境保护三个方面构建了青岛市生态环境町持续发展能力评价指标体系,结合统计数据,运用AHP法与综合评价法,对青岛市1997-2006年的牛态环境可持续发展能力进行评估,并对其动态变化进行了分析.结果表明:青岛市生态环境可持续发展能力综合指数由1997年的0.229上升到2006年的0.795,呈逐年上升趋势,可持续发展能力不断提高.经济发展和环境保护因素对促进青岛市生态环境可持续发展的作用明显,1977-2004年社会发展始终落后于经济、环境发展,社会因素制约着青岛市可持续发展.     

平原地区资源环境承载力评价与短板要素分析*——以山东省平原县为例

[目的]在全面推进生态文明建设的关键时期,进行平原地区资源环境承载力评价,是协调平原地区可持续发展、推动资源利用方式转变的重要举措。[方法]构建由水土资源承载力、生态环境承载力和社会经济承载力3个子系统构成的资源环境承载力评价系统,以山东省平原县2016年国民经济统计资料、土地利用相关数据为数据基础,采用层次分析法和德尔菲法相结合的综合赋权形式,利用模糊综合评价法,测算区域资源环境承载力,结合短板要素分析,对2016年平原县资源环境承载力进行评价研究。[结果](1)平原县资源环境承载力综合评价分值为0. 6051,处于较高等级;(2) 3个子系统中,承载力得分从大到小依次为社会经济承载力、水土资源承载力、生态环境承载力;(3)平原县资源环境承载力指标体系中没有处于危机状态的指标,但人均城镇建设用地状态指数小于0,处于预警状态。[结论]平原县资源环境承载力较好,尚未有短板要素,但城乡建设用地结构不平衡;为提高承载力,从促进水土资源高效集约利用、树立"绿色"意识、加强生态环境治理、促进产业结构转型升级等方面提出相应建议措施。     

山东省经济社会生态协调发展水平研究

现代区域经济的发展不仅仅是经济的发展,而是经济、社会和生态的协调发展。本文利用山东省109个县、县级市和市直辖区的2006年的数据,计算各区域的经济、社会和生态的协调度,从而进一步山东省经济、社会和生态子系统两两之间以及区域总体水平上三个子系统的协调程度。通过分析得到两个结论:第一,山东省县、县级市和市直辖区之间的可持续发展水平、经济、社会和生态的三个子系统两两之间的协调度以及经济社会生态的综合协调度存在着明显的区域差异;第二,区域可持续发展能力的高低不仅体现为经济、社会和生态的三个子系统的本身水平的高低,更重要的是三个子系统之间以及总体上的综合协调程度的高低。     

福建省县域农业可持续发展水平研究

[目的]为全面分析福建省不同区域的农业可持续发展水平。[方法]采用相关性分析方法和主成分分析方法,收集了2011~2012年福建省农业基础数据,结合福建省省情,构建福建省67个县域单元农业可持续发展水平评价体系和确定评价体系权重,利用加权求和法建立福建省县域农业可持续发展水平综合评价模型。通过对福建省县域农业可持续发展农业资源子系统、农业生态环境子系统、农业社会经济子系统和综合指标的分析,得出福建省县域农业可持续发展水平指数、空间分布状况,探讨其形成原因。[结果]结果表明:2011~2012年福建省县域农业可持续总体发展水平良好,从总体上看,闽西和闽北地区的农业资源可持续发展指数较高,闽东地区的农业环境生态可持续发展指数较高,闽西地区的农业社会经济可持续发展指数较高,闽西和闽北地区的农业可持续发展综合指数较高。[结论]根据评价分析结果,提出福建省县域农业可持续发展未来发展方向,为福建省县域农业可持续发展提供参考依据。     

基于层次分析法的海南省农业可持续发展指标体系构建及其能力评价

本文首先根据指标体系构建原则和指标选取方法构建了海南农业可持续发展能力指标体系;其次,利用层次分析法确定指标权重;最后,利用2000年～2009年的数据对海南省农业可持续发展的能力进行了评价。结果表明,2000年。2009年海南省农业系统总体发展良好,但农村社会子系统、农业资源子系统和农业环境子系统的可持续性不稳定,应加大对其弱势系统的发展力度。     

湖北农业可持续发展能力及其评价

农业可持续发展的内涵可概括为四个方面 ,即农业产出的可持续性、农业经济的可持续性、农业生态环境的可持续性和农村社会的可持续性 ,这四个方面构成了实现农业可持续发展必须达到的基本目标。本文在借鉴有关研究成果的基础上 ,结合湖北省农业生产的实际情况 ,设置农业可持续发展能力的评价指标体系 ,旨在通过定量分析 ,考察农业可持续发展内部子系统对可持续发展能力的影响及各子系统间的协调关系。一、农业可持续发展能力评价指标体系的框架设置根据农业可持续发展的内涵 ,兼顾系统性、全面性、可比性和可操作性原则 ,我们从农业生产、农…     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

The Effect of the Structural Adjustment Program on the Output,Prices and Exports of Major Agricultural Export Crops in Nigeria

The primary objective of this paper is to examine changes in the level of output, prices and exports of major export crops resulting from the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria. THere two main sources of data: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its annual reports, Economic and Financial Review, and the Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) through its Trade Summaries. Although the SAP led to appreciable increases in output and producer prices, its effects on exports were insignificant. The implications of these for the implementation of the program are explored.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Evaluating Alternative Policy Responses to Higher World Food Prices: The Case of Increasing Rice Prices in Madagascar

Higher world food prices have led many developing countries to adopt policies to mitigate the impact on low-income households. This article sets out a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the efficiency, distributional, and revenue implications of alternative policy responses. The model is applied to evaluate tariff reductions and targeted transfers in Madagascar. Although lowering tariffs generates substantial efficiency gains, these accrue mainly to the top half of the welfare distribution, and poor net sellers are actually worse off. Developing a system of targeted direct transfers to poor households is likely to be a substantially more cost-effective approach to poverty alleviation.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Revealing different understandings of soil held by scientists and farmers in the context of soil protection and management

This paper aims to analyse and draw together results from similar studies in England, Switzerland and France which investigated farmers’ understanding of soil and compared it with that of scientists, researchers and advisors (collectively called scientists in this analysis). A range of methods were used across the three studies and different theoretical approaches, looking at forms of knowledge, local practice of knowledge production and conceptions of reality, were employed to explain the results. Despite the different contexts, methodologies and theoretical approaches in the three studies, the results reveal similar patterns of difference in farmer and scientist understanding of soil. In the English study, farmers demonstrate a ‘know-how’ form or intuitive working knowledge of soil while advisors rely on scientifically established forms of ‘know-why’ and seek to understand and explain soil processes. Similarly in the Swiss study farmers’ and scientists’ differing perceptions are directed and shaped by their respective aims, methods and context of work. In the French study, farmers and researchers are shown to have different conceptions of soil, they attribute different meaning to the same activities, and use different words and language to describe the same features. In all three studies understanding is shown to be cultural and contextual, as such an integrative theoretical framework is proposed.     

Transaction Cost Thresholds in International Rice Markets

Recent episodes of high and volatile prices for grains such as rice have raised concerns about their implications for hunger and poverty. We model price relationships between international rice prices and 221 domestic prices in 47 developing countries that import rice. We use a threshold vector error correction model that accounts for transaction costs of trade in spatial price transmission, and an improved regularised Bayesian threshold estimator for threshold models. Our results show that threshold values are higher after 2008 than before, which suggests that transaction costs in international rice trade have increased in recent years. Threshold values are highest for Latin American countries followed by African and Asian countries, and higher for retail than for wholesale prices. Since 2008, price transmission is slower in countries that responded to high and volatile prices with domestic market‐based interventions such as price controls and faster in countries that responded by lowering tariffs and by implementing production support measures.