Country of Origin Labeling (C.O.O.L.): How cool is it?

This paper develops a partial-equilibrium model of a small open-economy trading an unsafe product. The model is used to analyze the welfare effects of trade with and without a country-of-origin labeling (COOL) program. The welfare gains from trade in the absence of COOL are ambiguous, may justify the imposition of a trade ban. Even if a full ban does not improve welfare and some restriction of trade is always welfare-enhancing. Under a tariff regime, more COOL trade is better than less trade. Independently of domestic market power, free trade coupled with a COOL program maximizes national welfare.     

贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题

本文研究发现(1)中美进出口计价方式不同和运输时滞导致双边贸易统计数据存在差异是自然的。(2)参照剔除香港转口毛利后中美贸易新估计值,1995—2003年美国对华出口低估年均在24%以上,从华进口高估年均在35%以上,而中国对美出口低估年均在20%以上,从美进口相对没变。(3)考虑服务贸易后,美中商品与服务贸易逆差估计值与中国对美贸易顺差新估计值已相当接近。上述结果得到IMF数据的证实。(4)外商在华直接投资增加会造成中国对美出口增加、对美贸易顺差增加。依据中美两国月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。这一结果证实中美贸易平衡问题已超越中美两国贸易范围而成为外商在华直接投资所引致的贸易逆差转移问题。剔除外资企业进出口贡献及贸易统计差异后,中国对美贸易估计值已非常趋近于美国对华贸易估计值。     

美国在华直接投资对中美贸易不平衡的影响研究

20世纪90年代以来,美国在华直接投资额呈迅速上升趋势,中美贸易规模也不断扩大,与此同时,两国的贸易差额也逐年增大,双边贸易的不平衡加剧了贸易摩擦。本文首先从美国在华投资对中美贸易差额所产生的各种效应阐述了中美贸易失衡的原因,然后通过实证分析得出美国在华直接投资与中美贸易顺差之间存在长期协整关系的结论,即美国在华直接投资是导致中美贸易顺差的决定性因素。最后提出缓解中美贸易不平衡的相关对策建议。     

OF MICE AND ELEPHANTS: THE CANADA-U.S. FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This paper critically assesses the free trade agreement between Canada and the United States. Reviewing the theoretical literature on the gains from trade and the empirical literature on bilateral trade liberalization reveals that no presumption should exist that bilateral free trade would significantly improve Canada's welfare. Moreover, because of uncertainty over future abrogation or contingent protection actions, much of the predicted rationalization of Canadian industry may not occur. If, on the other hand, firms in Canada make major investments to take advantage of the agreement, Canada's bargaining position with the United States on trade and other issues could be weakened.     

Cointegration Approach to Estimating Bilateral Trade Elasticities Between U.S. and Her Trading Partners

Almost all previous authors who estimated the trade elasticities relied upon aggregate trade data. To avoid the aggregation bias, this paper provides estimates of trade elasticities using bilateral data between the United States and her six largest trading partners. Application of cointegration analysis reveals that in many cases, bilateral trade elasticities are large enough to justify real depreciation of the dollar as a mean of improving U.S. trade balance.[F14]     

Understanding the recent Sino-U.S. trade conflict

ABSTRACT

To understand Sino-U.S. trade relations, this article interprets the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the Trump administration’s perspective. The Trump administration claims that the Chinese government’s subsidies and high import tariffs cause the Sino-U.S. trade deficit, resulting in job losses in the U.S. The Trump administration therefore argues that imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports can resolve the deficit. The article finds that U.S. statistical accounting overestimates the deficit. Reducing China’s imports cannot increase U.S. employment, and China provides the United States with low-price and high-quality products. Chinese investors tend to invest the surplus by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds. In addition, the United States limits Chinese investments due to ‘national security’ concerns. China’s upgrading to the high end of the global value chain is a consequence of economic development. Therefore, the two countries should rebalance Sino-U.S. trade by seeking economic and trade cooperation via trade negotiations.     

U.S. trade remedy law and agriculture: trade diversion and investigation effects

Abstract .  We study U.S. agricultural antidumping and countervailing duty cases from 1980 to 2005, and gauge the effectiveness of trade remedy law as a form of protection. The purpose is to measure the resulting investigation and trade diversion effects. Previous research on trade in manufactured products has shown that the domestic protection offered by AD and CV duties is largely offset by trade diversion. In contrast, we find that for agriculture, trade diversion is relatively unimportant. So AD and CVD cases are very effective forms of protection for U.S. agriculture.     

美国金融危机对我国进出口贸易冲击的实证研究

中美两国互补型的直接贸易关系紧密,美国金融危机导致美国国内收入水平的下降、美元贬值以及物价水平波动易通过直接贸易溢出对中国进出口贸易状况形成冲击。研究发现,危机通过收入效应对我国贸易状况产生的溢出较弱,而通过价格效应对我国贸易状况产生了明显溢出,并且对我国的出口贸易冲击较大。出口贸易对美国价格水平变化冲击的响应强度、持续时间和衰减方式都发生了显著变化。     

The political economy of trade and migration: Evidence from the U.S. Congress

We compare the drivers of U.S. congressmen's votes on trade and migration reforms since the 1970s. Standard trade theory suggests that trade reforms that lower barriers to goods from less skilled‐labor abundant countries and migration reforms that lower barriers to low‐skilled migrants should have similar distributional effects, hurting low‐skilled U.S. workers while benefiting high‐skilled workers. In line with this prediction, we find that House members representing more skilled‐labor abundant districts are more likely to support trade and migration reforms that benefit high‐skilled workers. Still, important differences exist: Democrats are less supportive of trade reforms than Republicans, while the opposite is true for migration reforms; welfare state considerations and network effects shape votes on migration, but not on trade.     

Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K.

ABSTRACT

Previous research that assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance between the U.S. and U.K. assumed the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we add to the literature on the asymmetric J-curve phenomenon by considering the trade balance of 68 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We find short-run asymmetric effects of the real dollar-pound rate in almost all industries. However, short-run asymmetric effects were translated into significant long-run asymmetric effects in 25 industries. Indeed, the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis was supported in 18 industries.     

美中贸易收支与人民币汇率关系:实证分析

针对美中贸易收支与人民币汇率问题,经研究发现,汇率变动对贸易收支的影响是值得怀疑的,仅仅依靠人民币汇率变动是无法解决美中贸易逆差问题的。1994—2002年年度数据实证显示,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率(名义或实际汇率)之间没有稳定的关系;1998—2003年月度数据计量表明,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且,依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。因此,“人民币升值论”或许更多的是基于政治而非经济因素,人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。     

浅析美国在华直接投资与中美贸易的关系

贸易和投资——世界经济全球化的两个主要推动力量,日益向着一体化的方向发展。随着经济全球化的日益深入,中美两国的经贸联系越发密切。美国是当今世界经济的主要引擎之一,其在华的直接投资对中关进出口贸易产生着举足轻重的影响。文章分析了美国在华直接投资与中关贸易的发展趋势及其特点,并在此基础上探讨了美国对华投资与中关贸易互相促进的关系。     

基于贸易收支数据的美国贸易逆差与美元汇率相互关系研究

通过选择美国与中国、日本、加拿大、英国和欧元区11国等美国主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易数据作为样本,研究美国的双边贸易逆差与美元汇率之间的关系.实证分析表明,美国对主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易收支与美元汇率没有实质性联系.美国逼迫其它货币升值没有也不能缓解美国的贸易逆差问题,同样,美国逼迫人民币升值也不能缓解美中双边贸易失衡问题.     

OEM方式对中国外贸发展的影响

随着经济全球化的发展，加工贸易在我国对外贸易中所占的比重越来越大，对我国外贸的发展也起着越来越举足轻重的作用。本文通过分析OEM方式对我国生产企业的影响来阐述其对中国对外贸易发展的影响，并提出对加工贸易的看法。     

GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS AND PREFERENTIAL ACCESS TO U.S. MARKETS

The United States imports around 25% of its merchandise under some form of preferential trade regime. This paper examines both the origins and the consequences of U.S. trade preferences in the context of the gravity model of international trade. The main contributions of the paper are threefold. First, it provides estimates of the impact of preferential trade regimes in terms of access to U.S. markets while controlling for geostrategic interests that determine the countries that are offered commercial preferences. Second, we consider not only country eligibility but also the extent of utilization of these programs. Third, we provide new estimates of the impact of transport and transactions costs beyond distance. In the standard gravity estimation, we find that beneficiaries of these preferences, except GSP, export between two and three times more than the excluded countries, after controlling for country and product characteristics. Nonetheless, the estimated effects of these programs are lower when controlling for utilization ratios and selection biases due to the correlation between geopolitical interests and the standard explanatory variables used in the gravity model of trade, such as countries' geographic distance from the United States.     

中美贸易背后的利益分析

文章首先介绍了中美贸易的不平衡发展，然后重点分析了在中美贸易中的贸易利益流向和对双方的经济影响，进而找到解决此问题的积极可行的对策。     

中美贸易的反比较优势之谜

通过统计分析,本文发现中美贸易间存在"反比较优势之谜"。即美国在其具有技术上比较优势的行业,对中国出口相对较少,且在其比较优势越大的行业,对中国出口量相比世界其他地区越少;相比之下,中国对美国的出口则符合比较优势原理。为进一步检验该现象,本文将Eaton-Kortum模型扩展到多部门,并将其应用于中美贸易结构影响因素的经验分析。结果显示:在控制了行业生产规模和贸易成本等因素后,比较优势在中美双边贸易中的不对称作用依然存在,且结果稳健。     

THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE IN SINO-U.S. BILATERAL TRADE

We use the error component two-stage least squares estimation method to examine the effects of the Sino-U.S. exchange rate and the weighted exchange rate between the United States and other Asian countries on the Sino-U.S. trade patterns. Our study suggests that both the exchange rates have contributed to China's increased trade surplus with the United States. China has imported intermediate goods from the Asian countries, produced final goods using its cheap labor, and exported those goods to the United States. This is especially true for bilateral trade of high-tech manufacturing goods. Our study also reveals that the U.S. bilateral trade balance could improve if China appreciates its currency (Yuan) against the U.S. dollar. ( JEL F14, F10, F19)     

浅析结构性贸易融资及其在中国的发展

结构性贸易融资作为新的贸易融资方式，表现出良好的收益性、安全性和流动性，代表着未来贸易融资的发展方向。我国的结构性融资业务尚处于起步阶段，其发展有赖于金融、法律、人才环境的完善。作者在文中对这一问题进行了深入分析并提出了自己的建议。     

金融危机对美国对外贸易的影响及其传导

金融危机通过对进口的抑制和对出口的刺激改变了美国的对外贸易结构,这些影响首先传导到贸易收支账户.使美国的贸易收支状况得到改善;之后进一步传导到国民收入账户,减少了金融危机对美国经济增长的冲击.