互联网时代国有商业银行服务“三农”的战略机遇与创新策略

近两年,互联网金融热潮席卷中国,众多互联网企业纷纷转战金融,全面渗透支付、理财、融资、担保等传统金融领域,对传统商业银行产生了较大冲击.在受到冲击的同时,互联网金融也为国有商业银行的业务拓展提供了新的机遇,相对于互联网企业,国有商业银行的一个重要优势就是品牌覆盖面广,特别是在“三农”领域,国有商业银行更是具有得天独厚的优势.本文结合目前我国农村金融服务存在的问题,阐述了发展“三农”互联网金融的必要性,进而提出在互联网金融时代下,国有商业银行服务“三农”的战略机遇与创新策略.     

银行业加强互联网金融创新探析

互联网金融的快速发展,在融资渠道上深刻影响着商业银行的产品和服务,促进商业银行主动进行融资渠道变革。本文分析互联网金融对商业银行的影响,提出互联网+时代商业银行的应对之策。     

“互联网+”时代商业银行小微金融风险管理策略研究

"互联网+"时代下,商业银行小微金融服务的风险种类没有变化,只是表现形式和发生环节发生了改变,而商业银行在小微金融数字化转型的进程中,新的风险防控体系尚未完善,却已将旧的风控手段抛弃,造成风控体系的建设与业务创新的速度不匹配。本文在对"互联网+"时代小微企业内在禀赋引发的风险、市场环境和政策体系作用发挥不充分导致的风险进行系统阐释的基础上,深入分析"互联网+"时代商业银行小微金融服务风险的新特点,最后提出"互联网+"时代商业银行小微金融服务风险管理的六大策略:一是更新"互联网+"时代风险管理理念,二是建立健全全面风险管理体系,三是运用金融科技推进风控精准化、智能化,四是加强创新业务风险管理,五是强化合规管理和案防管理,六是培育高素质、专业化金融科技人才。     

我国财险公司多元化经营的最优边界研究

在“互联网+”时代,品牌核心受众发生重大变化：从目标客户到目标用户;品牌内涵的重心发生重大变化：从功能差异到情感差异;品牌构建的方式发生很大变化：从讲理念到讲故事;品牌构建的策略发生重大变化：从大一统到碎片化;品牌构建的方式发生很大的变化：从单向传播到双向互动。针对金融保险企业而言,相对产品品牌,金融企业更加强调企业品牌;相对于短期品牌提升,金融企业更加强调长期品牌塑造;相对于功能体验品牌,金融企业更加强调功能体验品牌与情感体验品牌的整合。为此,“互联网+”时代金融企业品牌建设的方向,是系统性、情感性、互动性和关联性。要在品牌规划的引领下,着眼于自身品牌定位,充分考虑不同媒介组合、品牌活动之间的关联,做到“形散而神不散”,能够相互支撑、协同递进;同时在品牌与业务互动的过程中,要建立品牌联想与具体产品或服务的关联性。     

互联网时代的金融创新与银行变革——访交通银行董事长牛锡明

编者按:对于金融业的竞争,固有的观念是来自同业.随着股份制商业银行、城市商业银行等各种中小商业银行的层出不穷,来自同业内部的金融竞争十分激烈.然而,在信息技术时代,以支付宝、财付通为代表的第三方支付企业异军突起,正在改变着商业银行的金融生态,对商业银行承载的难以撼动的交易媒介、支付手段等金融功能带来冲击和挑战.商业银行应如何转型创新以应对互联网时代新的金融格局?交通银行新任董事长牛锡明最近接受了本刊的专访,就金融竞争、生态环境的变化、银行转型变革以及未来发展战略等热点问题给出了富有远见的精粹阐述,并为我们勾画了银行业的未来:“20年后,商业银行将是一个基于互联网的、以个性化服务为主、以客户自服务为特征的银行.”     

大数据技术下的小微金融服务与产品创新

小微企业融资难的根本原因在于商业银行与小微企业之间的信息不对称。商业银行难以了解小微企业的信用状况和真实经营情况,导致在开展小微金融服务时面临着各种业务拓展和风险防控的考验。随着移动互联网的迅速普及,利用大数据技术作为支撑,各家商业银行加快了小微金融的转型步伐,不断完善小微金融业务服务和产品体系。本文结合小微企业特点和大数据技术,从小微金融产品创新、服务创新和风险控制三个维度,提出了大数据技术下小微金融的转型提升策略。     

互联网金融对中国商业银行系统性风险的影响——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

首先运用主成分分析法测算我国商业银行的系统性风险,接着运用突变分析和 SVAR 模型等计量方法实证互联网金融对我国商业银行系统性风险的影响。结果表明：互联网金融发展影响商业银行系统性风险的路径为：“互联网金融—商业银行的资产负债结构—商业银行的成本收入比—商业银行的系统性风险”,且它对银行系统性风险的影响存在“期限结构效应”,即互联网金融在短期内会增加我国银行系统性风险,但从中长期来看,对我国银行系统性风险的影响并不大,两者可作为互利共生的事物共同发展。互联网金融的存在对我国金融改革有很好的倒逼作用,能在一定程度上促进金融监管的创新。     

互联网金融崛起的影响及商业银行的应对策略研究

互联网“开放、平等、协作、分享”的精神向传统金融业的渗透,对传统金融模式产生了根本影响。互联网金融时代,金融业务将具备透明度更强、客户参与度更高、协作性更好、中间成本更低、操作更为便捷等一系列特点。互联网金融的迅速崛起,给商业银行带来新的机遇和挑战。本文分析了互联网金融崛起对商业银行的显著影响,从渠道、产品与平台创新、服务模式创新、营销模式创新、管理模式创新等方面提出合理化建议。     

以服务创新实现商业银行的供给侧结构性改革

随着互联网+时代的到来,互联网金融飞速发展,利率市场化全面推进,商业银行的垄断地位发生了根本性改变,在新的市场环境下,商业银行需要从供给侧角度出发进行改革。本文探讨论商业银行如何通过服务创新实现供给侧结构性改革。     

互联网时代的金融创新与银行变革——访交通银行董事长牛锡明北大核心SSCI

对于金融业的竞争,固有的观念是来自同业。随着股份制商业银行、城市商业银行等各种中小商业银行的层出不穷,来自同业内部的金融竞争十分激烈。然而,在信息技术时代,以支付宝、财付通为代表的第三方支付企业异军突起,正在改变着商业银行的金融生态,对商业银行承载的难以撼动的交易媒介、支付手段等金融功能带来冲击和挑战。商业银行应如何转型创新以应对互联网时代新的金融格局?交通银行新任董事长牛锡明最近接受了本刊的专访,就金融竞争、生态环境的变化、银行转型变革以及未来发展战略等热点问题给出了富有远见的精粹阐述,并为我们勾画了银行业的未来:"2 0年后,商业银行将是一个基于互联网的、以个性化服务为主、以客户自服务为特征的银行。"     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.