Groping for Stones to Cross the River versus Coordinated Policy Reforms: The Case of Two Reforms in China

Abstract

China’s economic transition has reached a stage where the past experimental approach is no longer sufficient. Future policy reforms need to be carried out in a holistic rather than a piecemeal manner. This paper analyzes the reforms of two related institutions in China: the household registration system and the rural land system. We argue that further institutional changes warrant national initiatives and coordinated reforms rather than merely drawing on local pilot experiences. A holistic policy package that can simultaneously promote the reforms of the household registration and the rural land system is proposed. We use fiscal simulations to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed holistic policy package.     

The behaviour of Russian industrial enterprises under transformation

Regional economic growth in Russia's regions in 1995–2000 is analysed with particular attention paid to FDI and how it influenced growth during this period. FDI appears to have been essential before the 1998 crisis in helping the economy grow despite the initial chaos of the transition. Larger regional economies that have garnered most FDI and perhaps gone further with institutional reforms that can assist in capturing the full benefits of FDI are likely to lead economic growth in the future. All regions need to take advantage now of the favourable economic environment to assess and learn from prior FDI experience to foster future growth should the price of oil and the remaining advantage of a depreciated currency change. No evidence was found that region-wide corruption hindered economic growth in the 1990s.     

The Political Economy of India's Economic Reforms*

This paper analyzes the history of the relationship between the state and the private sector in India. It concludes that India's economic reforms, which made development policy more dependent on international trade and private initiative, depended on the evolution of technocratic and political conviction. Reformers needed the support of financial crises for overcoming the powerful vested interests opposed to reforms. Successful reforms involved largely homegrown strategies of policy and institutional change. They have produced impressive growth rates and have benefited the rich and the middle class. The challenge for development and sustainable reforms is to make it more inclusive for poor farmers and unorganized workers.     

Permanency and Flexibility of Institutions: The Role of Decentralization in Chinese Economic Reforms

The purpose of this paper is to offer a Lachmannian analysis aimed at studying the coherence and the efficiency of reforms in China in terms of institutional change. The idea is that transition dynamics cannot be analyzed by reference to market criteria only; transition is, above all, a change in institutions. Every transition economy thus faces the problem of creating a new institutional framework which associates the co-ordination of activities by the market with the preservation of a centralized mechanism of resource allocation. We explain that, in China, this role is played by decentralization. Indeed, we demonstrate that Chinese economic reforms, of which the main institutional vector is decentralization, show the particularity of reconciling, within one single logic, the permanency of a well-established institutional order required for the co-ordination of individual plans, and the flexibility of institutions necessary for the move towards the market. We then defend the theory that both the success and the originality of Chinese economic reforms rest on their capacity to resolve the permanency-flexibility dilemma.     

The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures

In a constantly changing economic environment, a country's ability to undertake institutional reforms is crucial to maintain economic growth and to promote the welfare of its citizens. A wide range of determinants for institutional reforms have been identified. However, the impact of trust on reforms has not been fully addressed. We provide theoretical arguments why trust should influence institutional changes and test the relationship empirically. We find a significant positive relation between trust and the success of reforms with regard to government size, the legal system, and deregulation of private businesses and the labor market. Other policy fields are ambiguous.     

The institutional foundation of China's economic growth

China's economic growth is (undoubtedly, undeniably, unquestionably) regarded as a miracle due to the changes it has brought to the lives of the Chinese as well as to the global economic structure. This paper analyzes China's economic growth from the perspective of institutional reforms. The main argument is that, through the redefinition of property rights, the operation costs of China's planned economy under full public ownership have been reduced dramatically. Human resources have greatly improved in terms of productivity and creativity, thus providing China with competitive advantages in the global market.     

Productive and Unproductive Capital: A mapping of the New Zealand system of national accounts to classical economic categories, 1972‐95

New Zealand has gained considerable international attention for the neo-liberal economic reform programme it enacted from the mid-1980s; this programme has served as a model for similar reform elsewhere. Within the neoclassical framework of the reformers, the programme has produced many improvements to the economy. Such fundamental indicators as lower inflation, lower budget deficits and higher economic growth are cited as evidence of the improved economic conditions. Yet unemployment remains high, real interest rates are among the highest in the world, nominal interest rates and business confidence fluctuate considerably, and the balance of payments is deteriorating. Using a classical framework, this paper examines the neo-liberal reform of the New Zealand economy to see if there are alternative explanations for the persistence of these problems. The methodology developed by Shaikh & Tonak (1994) is used to map official national accounts data to classical economic categories for the 1972 to 1995 period. This approach is compared with earlier attempts at estimating classical economic categories for New Zealand. This classical view of the economic reforms is compared with the conventional view. The paper's main results are that there was a large increase in unproductive economic activity associated with the economic reforms in New Zealand; that the improvement in economic fundamentals emphasised by the reformers reflects this growth of unproductive activity; and that the persistence of other economic indicators is related to the ongoing weakness of productive activity.     

Decentralization,agency costs,and the new economic constitution of China

This article examines the evolution of the rules that govern central-local government relations in the Chinese political economy. Although the federalism that accompanied China’s market reforms has substantially facilitated economic growth, it has also created powerful incentives for local authorities to abuse their powers, significantly increasing the agency costs to the central government of maintaining political stability and creating a national market. This article analyzes the institutional design of the nascent Anti-Monopoly Law (AML), known to officials and academics as China’s new “Economic Constitution”. It demonstrates that the major purpose of the AML is to break up the so-called “administrative monopolies”, or bureaucratic fiefdoms over local economies. In contrast to existing academic treatment, it will study the AML in the framework of competition for influence over economic policy between rent-seeking central and local actors. It argues that the AML, despite its stated purposes, is indeed designed to reduce the policy-making powers of the regions to the comparative advantage of the central government. The AML can thus be modeled as a new constitutional contract that the center wishes to enter into with the localities in order to repeal the existing rules of decentralization. It will be further shown that the AML, reflecting the allocation of power in the Chinese state, prioritizes the political imperatives of recentralization over the facilitation of competitive markets.     

Slovakia's Surge: The New System's Impact on Fiscal Decentralisation

Slovakia's transition history long paralleled that of the Czech Republic, but the former adopted bold new reforms early in this decade. This article is a comparative treatment of fiscal decentralisation since 1993 and more recent reforms of public administration, the two efforts representing the foundation of the New System. Czech experience is invoked simply to provide an appropriate benchmark for the evaluation of Slovakia's New System introduced in 2004, including the 19% ‘flat tax’ and other striking measures in local public finance.

The second focus of the article is on the macroeconomic impact of the New System. It is too early to perceive what its long-term effects will be, so this treatment is more tentative. But because one would like to know whether Slovakia's return to an economic growth path is actually a result of the New System and whether this recent growth will persist, these issues are given some consideration.     

An Interactive Economic Policy Approach to Manage Structural Change: The case of industry conversion in the German state of Bremen

The present paper deals with (1) the regional experience of a severe and sudden structural change sometimes faced by regions and cities which display considerable industrial specialisation, and (2) a proactive regional economic policy response: it offers a theoretical explanation of this policy and discusses the basic philosophy behind it, the agents involved, the instruments it employs and its effects. The German state (Land) of the Free Hanseatic City of Bremen is a port and industry centre that has not only had considerable experience of industrial decline, but also of proactive industrial policy involvement. In addition, being the centre of the defence industry in northern Germany, Bremen experienced dramatic structural change due to the disarmament process that occurred during the 1990s. Bremen's industrial defence conversion approach has been widely considered as a case for further developing network forms of regional economic policy and for a managed industrial diversification strategy. It has indeed developed as a way to manage industrial change during the last ten years. This paper will discuss (1) the basic industrial problem; (2) some background conditions needed for success; (3) the approach and instruments developed; (4) the results obtained; and (5) a theoretical consideration on the basis of the experience.     

A Socio-instutionalist Critique of the 1990s' Reforms of the United Kingdom's National Health Service

This paper argues that the on-going reforms to the UK's National Health Service initiated in the 1990s represent potentially profound institutional change to the values underpinning the process of care. The market-orientation of the reforms is highlighted, and it is asserted that the theoretical rationale for this is informed by the nascent neoclassical health economics and new institutionalist literatures, which exhibit utilitarian propensities in that both stress outcomes and at best relegate process. Drawing from the seminal contribution of Thorstein Veblen, the paper argues that market-oriented reform in the UK may induce a shift from a Hippocratic ethos to a more individualistic value system.     

Engines of Growth in China: The Limits of Informal Institutions

Abstract:

Since the 1978 reforms, China has experienced rapid economic and social development. GDP growth has been in the double digits on average yearly, creating the fastest sustained economic growth recorded by a major economy in history. Not only did this transform the economy and society at large, China reached important milestones in terms of reducing poverty and creating prosperity in a short period of time. This article uses the conceptual framework of new institutional economics to examine China’s economic growth and how growth has been achieved largely by ‘informal institutions’ that are grounded in culture, customs, and private interactions that emerge spontaneously. The trajectory by which these informal institutions left their imprint on China’s complex economic landscape and how they can constrain future economic growth are also of central importance. After examining decentralization and risk management practices, property rights, and the legal system, we emphasize the importance of creating formal institutions necessary for long-term growth, most importantly innovation. Preliminary evidence shows total factor productivity is tapering off which may reflect the constraints of China’s institutional environment. This ought to be reversed if China is to enjoy long-term sustained growth.     

Has Productivity Contributed to China's Growth?

This paper applies an extended Solow approach to examine the role of productivity in China's economic growth. The extended Solow approach allows the decomposition of output growth into factor contributions, technological progress and efficiency change. It is found that total factor productivity (TFP) has on average contributed to 13.5 percent of China's economic growth in the past two decades. This contribution is mainly due to technological progress which tends to accelerate over time. However, during 1982–97 efficiency change due to catch–up has been very volatile, reflecting the uncertainties associated with economic reforms and transition in China.     

Economic transition and elections in Poland1

Poland's economic and political transition, one of the most successful, has depended very heavily on job creation in new firms to replace the jobs lost in the formerly state‐owned enterprises. This paper uses survey and aggregate data from three Polish elections to suggest that these de novo firms, the individuals they employ, and the residents in the local areas where they exist become an important constituency supporting pro‐reform political parties and constraining the actions of parties less sympathetic to the reforms. The creation of this political constituency helps explain how countries can successfully pursue both economic and political reforms. JEL classification: D72, P26.     

2018—2019年中国宏观经济报告 ——改革开放新征程中的中国宏观经济

2018年注定是中国宏观经济值得高度关注的一年。世界经济结构的裂变、市场情绪的巨变、微观基础的变异、经济政策的叠加错配以及结构性体制性问题进一步集中暴露，改变了中国宏观经济2016年以来“稳中向好”的运行趋势。宏观经济核心指标在“稳中有变”中呈现“持续回缓”的态势，下行压力持续加大。这说明中国宏观经济既没有“触底企稳”，也没有步入稳定复苏的“新周期”，反而在内部“攻坚战”与外部“贸易战”的叠加中全面步入中国经济新常态的新阶段。2018年所面临的经济持续下滑的压力难以通过短期稳增长政策得到有效缓解，需要利用新一轮全方位改革开放和新一轮供给侧结构性改革来进行化解和对冲。内外部压力和问题的暴露决定了中国大改革的窗口期已经在2018年全面出现，2019年中国必定将踏上改革开放的新征程。     

Decentralization,social capital,and regional growth: The case of the Italian North-South divide

This paper aims to show how a region's constant level of social capital may have a very different impact on its economic growth depending on whether the central or the local level of government is responsible for regional policy.Our case study is the economic performance of Northern and Southern Italy in the post-World War II period, when a long phase of regional convergence came to a sudden halt in the early 1970s. We focus on the economic effects of the 1970s institutional reforms on government decentralization and wage bargaining. Our main hypothesis is that decentralization allocates the provision of public capital to institutions, the local ones, more exposed to a territory's social capital. Since social capital is lower in the Southern regions, decentralization made their developmental policies less effective from 1970 onwards, and regional inequality increased.We build an endogenous growth model augmented to include the interaction between social capital and public investment as well as the reform of the Italian labour market. We calibrate our model using data of the Italian regions for 1951–71. Our quantitative results indicate that decentralization triggered the influence of local social capital on growth and played a central role in halting the convergence path of the low-social-capital regions.     

The Political Economy of Economic Reforms in Argentina

In 1989, Argentina entered a process of sweeping transformation of its economic institutions which provided for the (temporary) recovery of economic growth and the taming of inflation. The Argentine experience with market-oriented reforms has been regarded by the literature as a salient case of radical and 'unconstrained' reform. Yet, a closer scrutiny portrays that the building and maintenance of a pro-"reform coalition determined the pace, depth and characteristics of the 'new economic institutions'. The idiosyncrasies of Argentina's political institutions, in turn, conditioned this coalition-building strategy. The same idiosyncrasies were at play in the 2001/2002 collapse of the convertibility regime and ensuing social and political chaos.     

Economic returns to schooling in urban China, 1988 to 2001

This study provides estimates of the returns to schooling in urban China over an extended period of economic reforms. We find a dramatic increase in the returns to education, from only 4.0 percent per year of schooling in 1988 to 10.2 percent in 2001. Most of the rise in the returns to education occurred after 1992 and reflected an increase in the wage premium for higher education. The rise is observed within groups defined by sex, work experience, region, and ownership, and is robust to the inclusion of different control variables. The timing and pattern of changing schooling returns suggest that they were influenced strongly by institutional reforms in the labor market that increased the demand for skilled labor. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 730–752.     

Social Costs and the Automobile Industry: A Challenge to National Planning

Neoinstitutional thought is based on an integration of Thorstein Veblen's evolutionary theory of institutional change and John Dewey's theory of instrumental valuation. It offers a coherent methodology that guides both economic analysis and policy formation. Neoinstitutionalist methodology differs from mainstream economic methodology in its rejection of the normative-positive dualism. It denies that "objectivity" requires that science be wertfrie, arguing instead that normative propositions based on instrumental valuation are the foundation of scientific objectivity. The analytical focus of neoinstitutional economics is the process of institutional change which it treats as a change in the value structure of the institution.     

Water markets and freshwater ecosystem services: Policy reform and implementation in the Columbia and Murray-Darling Basins

Water markets have featured prominently in the reallocation of water rights to restore freshwater ecosystem health. Incentive-based water rights acquisition and transactions have emerged as a market-oriented policy approach to reallocate water resources from existing uses to enhance the provision, regulation, and sustainability of freshwater ecosystem services. This paper develops a conceptual framework to examine factors enabling and constraining successful policy reform and implementation in market-based environmental water allocation. This analysis distills and extends the findings and lessons of a September 2007 workshop in Brisbane, Australia on environmental water transactions. Two case studies were selected in water stressed basins - the Columbia (U.S.A) and Murray-Darling (Australia) Basins - where transactional approaches to environmental water allocation first emerged. The case studies draw upon practitioner perspectives and previous policy and economic analysis in two regions where shared political economic and physical conditions lend a strong analytical basis for comparison. A common set of policy and regulatory reforms has occurred in both cases - albeit in different forms and via distinct paths - to develop three enabling conditions: (1) establishment of rights to and limits on freshwater extraction and alteration; (2) recognition of the environment as a legitimate water use; and (3) authority to transfer existing water rights to an environmental purpose. However, these elements of policy reform are necessary but not sufficient for effective implementation; a second set of driving forces, barriers, and adaptations explains the ability to achieve larger scale ecological outcomes. These conditions include the physical, social and economic factors driving demand for environmental water allocation; administrative procedures, organizational development and institutional capacity to effect transfers; and adaptive mechanisms to overcome legal, cultural, economic, and environmental barriers. The case study analysis suggests that environmental water transactions can play an important role in establishing environmental water allocations, although water markets require ongoing institutional capacity and adaptive governance. The conceptual framework and empirical lessons generated through this cross-case comparison provide the basis for an expanded research agenda to evaluate the design and performance of market-oriented reforms as implementation experience accrues and new programs emerge in diverse ecological and political economic settings.