调控不动摇

从2010年4月开始，针对房地产价格大幅上涨的势头和不断加剧的通胀压力，国务院先后出台了一系列房地产调控政策，对一些房价上涨过快、房价水平过高的城市，实施了限贷、限购等调控措施。如实行了差别化住房信贷、税收政策；全国先后40多个城市出台了商品房限购措施等。与此同时，各地增加土地和普通商品住房供给，大力加强保障性住房建设。在2010年建设580万套保障性住房的基础上，2011年又有1000万套保障房开工建设，以解决中低收入群体的住房困难问题。     

中国房地产业的调控效应与走势分析

自2003年以来,为了控制房地产的过热发展,中央政府密集地出台了许多措施与政策。然而,严峻的现实是房价的直线上升和全面上涨。越是实施宏观调控,房价越涨;出台的政策越多,房价上涨的速度越快;政府调控的决心越大,市场反弹的压力越大。这种逆向调控的矛盾现象,引起了全社会的关注。本文认为,这一现象的根源,在于住宅需求旺盛、住房供给不足和政府政策的效应抵消。房地产有效调控的治本思路是,增加楼市的有效供给、完善住房发展模式、转变住房观念等。     

住房需求抑制还是土地供给调节:房地产调控政策比较研究

为了抑制房价过快上涨,中国政府在过去几年实施了多轮房地产调控,调控政策大致可以分为住房需求抑制和土地供给调节两种类型.对于这两类调控政策效果的优劣,理论界一直存在争议.文章通过构建考虑信贷摩擦和房地产抵押担保效应的新凯恩斯模型,考察了住房需求抑制和土地供给调节这两类房地产调控政策对房价的调控效果和对宏观经济的影响.分析结果表明:抑制住房需求在促使房价下跌的同时,也会减少房地产投资和财政支出,进而降低总产出,但有利于增加私人消费和优化社会资本结构;而增加土地供给在抑制房价方面同样有效,且对宏观经济特别是非房地产部门具有正向溢出效应.从整体上看,在不考虑土地供给限制的情况下,相对于住房需求抑制,土地供给调节可能是更优的房地产调控政策.     

新调控政策对房地产市场的影响分析及政策建议

2010年3月中旬开始,北京等一线城市住房市场出现明显反弹,推动房地产市场泡沫继续增大。针对住房市场的严峻形势,国务院及时出台了一系列大力度的调控政策,严格抑制不合理需求,增加住房供给、改善供给结构,加大住房保障力度。新政的实施将缓解供求矛盾,挤出泡沫,促进房价合理回归。今后要根据市场的反应适时进行政策的微调,使调控政策更加符合市场的客观实际,取得更大的成效。还要注重建立促进房地产市场稳定发展的长效机制。     

政府廉租住房供给存在的问题及对策研究

在房价高涨的背景下,加强廉租住房供给是解决低收入家庭住房问题的有效途径。我国自1998年《关于进一步深化城镇住房制度改革加快住房建设的通知》发布以来,廉租住房政策虽然建立并取得了阶段性的成果,但还存在一些不容忽视的问题。分析了城市廉租住房供给存在的问题,并在此基础上提出了提高城市廉租住房供给能力的对策建议。     

基于均衡价格理论的房地产泡沫形成机理研究

与一般商品市场不同,房地产市场的供给和需求具有多种特性,这是房地产泡沫易发的内在基础。该文运用经济学中的供求规律、均衡价格模型和弹性理论分析房地产泡沫生成、发展和破灭的内在机理,认为在住房供给有限的情况下,房价上涨预期所引发的投资性购房需求的增加,是房价在短期内迅速上涨的动力,一旦这种涨价预期消失,房地产市场将形成超额供给。但是,由于房地产市场的垄断性以及其他一些国情因素,超额供给增加并不必然导致房价大幅下降和房地产泡沫破灭,而是更多地表现为空置率上升和成交量的萎缩。因此,房价对现行调控政策不敏感,在宏观背景未变的情况下,房价上涨容易下降难,房地产泡沫破灭的可能性不大。     

市场化下住房保障体系的建立和完善探讨

住宅保障是与住宅市场化同轨的配套制度,是住房市场化的一部分,在中国住宅供给市场化的同时,建立和健全住房保障制度,是完善住房供给体制的重要内容。我们应该从法律、相应的配套金融政策、保障性住房供给方式等方面入手,借鉴发达国家的住房保障实践经验,来实现中国政府的居者有其屋的住房政策目标。     

房地产正向财富效应形成的条件分析

房地产对居民消费的财富效应一直是关注的焦点。产生房地产财富正效应的条件为:城市居民二套住房拥有率要大于有潜在住房购买力的家庭占比率。我国应加大调控力度,降低房价,增加公共住房保障供给,大力发展适合中低收入阶层家庭的商品房项目。     

差异化预期、政策调控与房价波动——基于中国35个大中城市的实证研究

文章在住房存量调整模型的基础上,基于住房供给方为理性预期、需求方为适应性预期的假设条件,建立了包含差异化预期和政策调控的住房市场均衡模型,然后以中国35个大中城市为样本,利用线性模型和门槛模型实证检验了预期和政策调控对房价波动的影响.研究发现,预期对房价波动具有显著影响,上一期房价增量的提升对本期房价增量具有显著的抑制效应.研究还表明,政府的房地产调控政策对房价波动存在明显的门槛效应:当房价增幅放缓时,土地供应的放宽会拉升房价,反之则土地政策效果减弱.随着房价增幅的提升,货币政策对房价的作用增大.保障房政策对房价的影响随房价增幅与居民可支配收入增幅的动态变化而表现出三种不同的结果.     

提高东北三省居民住房消费能力的对策研究

根据东北三省居民的住房及收入情况,采取提高居民收入水平、改善住房供给结构、建立健全住房保障制度、抑制房价过快上涨、创新住房金融产品等措施,是提高居民特别是中低收入家庭购房能力的有效对策。     

土地政策参与宏观调控的机制分析——基于主体功能区调控视角

我国住房商品化已有三十多年的时间,房地产业渐渐从稳定发展走向了发展过热的阶段。为此,国家出台了大量的土地政策对房地产市场进行宏观调控。从土地供应政策的三个角度即土地供应量、土地供应方式和土地供应结构方面分析其与土地价格的关系,可深化研究土地政策参与宏观调控的机制及其对房地产价格产生的影响。     

我国资产价格波动与货币政策关系研究

随着金融自由化的逐步推进,资本市场存量日益增大.这既体现了金融深化程度的提高,又意味着货币供应与国民经济主要指标之间稳定性的弱化.资产价格对货币政策的制订和执行会产生深刻的影响.其中股价、房价等资产价格在货币政策传导机制中扮演的角色越来越重要.本文从实证角度出发,通过构建VAR模型检验我国资产价格对货币政策的反应以及资产价格对货币政策目标的影响,发现资产价格、货币政策及货币政策目标间存在长期协整关系,资产价格对产出有正向冲击作用,股市显著影响通货膨胀,但房地产市场对通货膨胀推动作用不明显,资产价格受货币政策的冲击影响显著,其中股市对货币政策冲击的反应明显大于房地产市场.     

中美货币政策变动与国内资产价格调控

后金融危机时代,美国持续量化宽松货币政策所带来的溢出效应已对中国资产价格调整产生实质性影响;美国货币政策变动后可通过利率和国际资本流入进行传导,能直接引起中国股票市场价格的剧烈波动并间接推动房地产价格的上涨;在中国房地产市场正处于深度调控背景下,美国货币政策的进一步放宽将对中国货币政策的适度紧缩形成强烈制约,使中国资产价格调控面临巨大的风险和隐患。     

Impact of government intervention in the housing market: evidence from the housing purchase restriction policy in China

In 2010, a housing purchase restriction policy was announced by China’s central government and implemented gradually by several prefecture governments. In this article, we empirically investigate this policy’s effect on the housing market. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we show that the housing purchase restriction policy reduces housing prices and transaction amounts but does not influence the housing investment or construction markets. Moreover, upstream industry suffers more than downstream industry. The results are robust to a battery of robustness checks. Heterogeneity exists across cities. We find that first- and second-tier cities as well as highly urbanized cities experience great declines in housing prices after the policy’s implementation, especially cites that had high housing prices in 2010 and cities with high real estate investment as a proportion of fixed asset investment. However, the housing policy is less effective in curbing speculative demand.     

差别化房地产税收政策对住房消费的影响

我国住房交易税和试点中的房产税都是差别化的税收政策,差别化的交易税会减少购房消费,增加租赁消费,但可能会使住房价格上升,并增加新建住房消费比例,减少存量住房消费比例。房产税或物业税等差别化保有税的开征,将起到降低住房价格,减少购房消费和增加租赁消费的作用。而利率等货币政策也是调控我国房地产市场的一个非常有效的手段。     

Housing price fluctuations and financial risk transmission: a spatial economic model

Financial risk derived from housing price fluctuations in China garnered much public concern recently. Based on the theoretical analyses of the transmission of financial risk from housing price fluctuations, this paper establishes panel spatial Durbin models to empirically analyse housing price fluctuations and financial risks transmission from a spatial economic perspective. Employing the panel provincial data from 1999–2015, we conduct an analysis on the 30 provinces in China as well as a comparison among the Eastern, Middle and Western regions of China. The results indicate that: (1) The soaring housing prices driven by bank credit, real estate developers’ heavy investment, local governments’ land revenue and individuals and households demands leads to financial risk in various sectors; (2) due to the ‘substitution effect’, the capital agglomeration in metropolis from bank credits, real estate developers, and individuals and households furthers the amassment of financial risks; (3) housing prices have a significant spatial contagion effect throughout the country, and financial risk could directly transmit across provinces through housing price fluctuations; (4) financial risks could indirectly transmit across provinces via the ‘imitative behaviour’ or ‘driving effect’ of different sectors for different regions of China.     

房地产业发展的根本出路在于体制改革

1998年中国商品房市场化改革为中国房地产业和中国经济带来了十余年的高速增长.近年来,中国房价的过快上涨,根本原因不在于人多地寡,也不在于住房需求快速增长,更不在于投机盛行,而在于土地供给的非市场化.中国房地产业要实现稳定健康发展,就必须实行彻底的市场化改革.一是要改革单边垄断的土地供给制度;二是要改革财权与事权不对等的财政分税体制;三是要改革政府行政管理体制,减少不合理的行政干预.改革可以从以下五个方面进行:一是建立公平公正的法治环境;二是培育多元的土地供应主体,有效扩大土地供给;三是需要将地方政府税源长期化,改变地方政府的土地财政利益导向;四是需要政府加大保障性住房建设并实行公平、公开、公正的分配;五是需要慎用行政手段,不断完善市场机制,充分发挥市场在资源配置中的主体作用     

Impact of asset price fluctuation on China’s monetary policy: An empirical analysis based on quarterly data, 1994–2006

The strenuous fluctuation in global asset price in recent years has had a profound impact on the economic and social development of every country. An empirical analysis indicates that asset prices (the stock price index and real estate prices) are important endogenous variables affecting the interest rate reaction function of central bank monetary policy. With expected inflation as a given, each one percentage point rise in output gap will cause a 0.79 percentage point reduction in interest rates by the central bank and each one percentage point rise in real estate price will result in a 2.2 percentage point rise in interest rates. The stock price index does have an influence on the trends in monetary policy, but it is less salient than the impact of housing prices. We also show that monetary policy that employs asset price as an endogenous variable increases the central bank’s control in seeking to attain its objectives. Therefore we suggest that the central bank should make asset price fluctuation an endogenous variable and incorporate it into its forward-looking interest rate rule, in order to facilitate the healthy development of China’s markets for real estate, stocks and derivatives, energy and bulk commodities and maintain rapid, smooth, sustainable and harmonious economic development.     

China’s house price: Affected by economic fundamentals or real estate policy?

Many theory and empirical literature conclude that house price can reflect economic fundamentals in the long-term. However, by using China’s panel data of 35 main cities stretching from 1998 to 2007, we find that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals. House price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market. We consider that the mechanism between the house price and economic fundamentals is distorted by China’s real estate policy, especially its land policy. Meanwhile the policy itself is an important factor in explaining the changes of China’s house price. Then we estimate the dynamic panel data model on house price and the variables which are controlled by real estate policy. The result shows: land supply has negative effects on house price; financial mortgages for real estate have positive effects on house price; and the area of housing sold and the area of vacant housing, which reflects the supply and demand of the housing market, has negative effects on house price. We also find some differences in house price influence factor between eastern and mid-western cities. Finally, we propose policy suggestions according to the empirical results.     

腐败治理对房价的抑制效应研究简

抑制过快的房价上涨是中国当前面临的紧迫任务之一。腐败治理不仅可以抑制腐败推高房价的灰色收入效应和市场势力效应,而且对房价有直接抑制效应。构建房地产价格计算模型,利用2002-2011年省级面板数据,在全国和区域层面分别进行计算分析结果表明,腐败治理对房价的抑制效果显著,其中东部、中部地区效果更为显著。