论我国金融衍生品市场的发展

我国金融衍生品市场还处于初级阶段,发展状态比较混乱,产品缺乏创新,设计不合理,信息披露不健全,监管不健全,投机性较大。为此,我国应采取谨慎性态度,建立健全监管体系,培养投资主体,以促进金融衍生品市场的发展。     

金融衍生品风险监管改革及展望

金融衍生产品可谓此次金融危机的"始作俑者".此次金融危机爆发以来,各国监管当局都在探索对金融衍生品市场加强监管.本文系统地总结了各国衍生品监管模式、存在的主要问题,梳理了各国监管当局提出的衍生品监管改进措施,并分析了这些措施的改革效果.     

完善我国金融衍生品市场监管的思考

金融衍生品是把双刃剑,为使其在发挥作为良好投资工具的同时,不至给国家经济带来损失,我国有必要对其加以严密监管.然而我国金融衍生品市场的监管现状存在较多问题,需要对其加以完善.     

保险公司衍生产品运用的经济学分析

本文集中考察保险公司在衍生品市场的参与,分析保险公司运用衍生产品的经济动机、影响因素及次贷危机中衍生品投资对保险公司的影响。本文认为,金融衍生品是保险公司资产和负债管理的重要工具。对它的不当运用会造成严重的投机风险,因此,保险机构和相关监管部门应当加强内控管理,从根本上杜绝投机现象发生,严格运用衍生产品来套期保值和对冲风险。     

我国跨境金融衍生品交易改革路径研究

金融衍生品是现代市场经济的重要组成部分,是价格发现、资源配置和风险防范的重要金融工具。上世纪80年代以来,我国先后推出外汇期货、国债期货、股票指数期货等产品,国内金融衍生品市场进入黄金发展时期。但由于监管体系不完善、配套机制不健全、开放程度较低等原因,金融衍生品市场出现了大肆投机、操纵市场等问题,金融衍生品市场的功能没有得到充分发挥,成为了我国资本项目可兑换程度较低的部分。     

欧美金融衍生品监管改革进展及对我国的启示

2008年金融危机让各国认识到高杠杆金融衍生品的风险以及加强监管的必要性。危机后,欧美地区加强了对金融衍生品的监管,在规范市场方面取得了重要突破,对于金融衍生品市场处于起步阶段的中国具有一定借鉴意义。     

关于推进国内衍生品市场规范发展的思考

近年来,国内衍生品市场发展迅速,在服务实体经济发展和推动金融市场繁荣的过程中发挥了重要作用。但在实践过程中,市场对衍生品的理解还存在一些偏差,一定程度上制约了国内衍生品市场的发展。笔者系统性梳理了衍生品交易的概念、特征与发展历程,结合近期国际监管动向分析了国际衍生品市场发展情况与监管经验,认为衍生品作为一种中性的风险管理金融工具,本身并无好坏之分,市场参与者运用不当加之部分领域监管缺失才是2008年金融危机的问题所在。与欧美普遍存在的投机过度、创新超前等问题不同,我国衍生产品发展尚处起步阶段,与实体经济的需求相比,发展程度还很不足。为此,笔者提出了促进国内衍生品市场发展的几点思考与政策性建议:一是要辩证看待,既要充分认识衍生品对经济与金融发展的重要作用,也要努力将衍生品的不利影响关进笼子里;二是既要大力推动市场扩容,也要持续加强市场规范化程度;三是银行等金融机构既要积极有序参与场内外市场,也要规范产品设计与业务流程;四是监管机构要统筹把握创新发展与加强监管的关系,为规范衍生品市场夯实基础。     

国际上场外衍生品结算安排及其启示

由于金融衍生品在风险管理、价格发现、套期保值等方面发挥着巨大作用,金融衍生品在近几十年得到快速发展,并影响着现代金融业未来发展和监管方向。由于金融衍生品尤其是场外衍生品风险较大,若监管不到位,结算环节风险暴露将导致资金链断裂则可能危及整个金融系统安全。目前发生在世界范围内的金融危机就与场外衍生品风险控制不力及监管缺失密切相关。本文主要从场外衍生品结算安排与风险管理角度,分析现行场外结算安排存在的问题,并就此提出完善我国场外衍生品结算安排的建议。     

给场外交易套上“笼头”

美国次贷危机引发的金融危机,引发了学者对于衍孛品市场发展和监管的大讨论,尤其是在G20峰会上各国政要都纷纷提出对金融衍生品市场的监管问题。查阅近期的资料,笔者认为对金融衍生品的监管不能简单一慨而论,应该有区别、有重点地加强监管,对症下药,方能既不抑制金融创新,又能加强金融监管,使金融衍生品健康发展。     

给场外交易套上“笼头”

美国次贷危机引发的金融危机,引发了学者对于衍孛品市场发展和监管的大讨论,尤其是在G20峰会上各国政要都纷纷提出对金融衍生品市场的监管问题。查阅近期的资料,笔者认为对金融衍生品的监管不能简单一慨而论,应该有区别、有重点地加强监管,对症下药,方能既不抑制金融创新,又能加强金融监管,使金融衍生品健康发展。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.