An approach for measuring the optimal fleet capacity: Evidence from the container shipping lines in Taiwan

Excess capacity emerges as a persistent problem in the shipping industry and plays an essential role in determining the level of ocean freight. Consequently, the optimal fleet capacity has become a critical and frequently discussed issue within the container shipping industry. In practice, the designed capacity of a vessel is the most popular approach for measuring the fleet capacity for a shipping line. Despite this, it continues to lack the operational and economical reasonableness necessary to properly define or measure the capacity provided by a shipping line. This study has developed an economic model to find the optimal fleet capacity. In turn, the corresponding installation ratios have been computed to examine the level of excess capacity present and evaluate the performance of fleet development for three container shipping lines in Taiwan. The findings suggest that the shipping lines with deep-sea service routes are likely to deliberately hold excess capacity. Thus, the strategy of holding excess capacity to deter entry and maintain market power may have implicitly played a crucial role in determining the scale of fleet capacity for a container shipping line.     

Solutions for flexible container leasing contracts with options under capacity and order constraints

The container–shipping market becomes prosperous with the development of the global economy. As shipping networks become more complex and heterogeneous, container capacity planning becomes more difficult. This paper tackles the container planning problem from the carrier’s perspective in a two-echelon container shipping service chain (CSSC), which includes one carrier and one upstream rental company. A flexible contract with options is introduced into the one-period container planning mechanism. With the flexible options contract, the rental company requires the carrier to make a commitment or place an order in advance. Options give buyer the right to modify the initial orders to better match the supply with the demand. Based on the carrier’s decision tendency, i.e., aggressive or conservative, we analyze the application strategies of the unilateral options and the bidirectional options in different practical scenarios. In particular, for the applicability of the decision models, we further consider the shipping capacity and the minimum order constraints and formulate the carrier’s option policies with constrained nonlinear programs. Numerical examples show that the proposed decision strategies with option contract cannot only effectively increase the container trading quantity between the rental company and the carrier, but also significantly reduce the carrier’s container capacity risk while increasing its profit.     

Assessing resources, logistics service capabilities, innovation capabilities and the performance of container shipping services in Taiwan

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between resource, logistics service capability, innovation capability and the performance of Taiwanese container shipping service firms based on the resource-based view (RBV). A structural equation modeling (SEM) approach was employed to test the research hypotheses. Results indicated that resource had a significant positive effect on logistics service capabilities and innovation capabilities. In addition, the findings indicated that logistics service capability had a positive effect on the performance of container shipping service firms. However, resource and innovation capability were not found to have significantly positive effects on firms’ performance. Theoretical and managerial implications of the research findings for container shipping service firms are discussed.     

Price caps with capacity precommitment

We examine the effectiveness of price caps to regulate imperfectly competitive markets in which the demand is uncertain. To that effect, we study a monopoly that makes irreversible capacity investments ex-ante, and then chooses its output up to capacity upon observing the realization of demand. We show that the optimal price cap must trade off the incentives for capacity investment and capacity withholding, and is above the unit cost of capacity. Moreover, while a price cap provides incentives for capacity investment and mitigates market power, it cannot eliminate inefficiencies. Capacity payments provide a useful complementary instrument.     

贸易媒介、定价格局与国际石油市场演变——对石油史的新阐释

通过引入贸易媒介的三分法贸易商品定价分析框架,阐述生产者、贸易媒介和消费者等推动市场结构和定价格局变动的机理,并从生产者-贸易媒介以及贸易媒介-消费者两个环节的定价博弈出发,尝试性地对国际石油市场及定价格局的演变进行分析.阐释了现代石油工业150年历史中重大政治经济事件的经济涵义和各阶段国际石油市场格局演变的主要特征,并分析了在期货市场体系中,产油国、石油公司及投机者等对国际油价变动的影响及其作用机理.     

国内外氰化钠市场简析

我国目前的氰化钠生产能力仅次于美国，但国内行业结构性矛盾突出，存在产品积压；年进口量在２０ｋｔ左右波动。国际金价下跌导致氰化钠需求下降，价格下挫，局部地区对中国商品级片状有一定的需求。并对在西北地区新建以天然气为原料的氰化钠装置得出了不具备竞争能力的结论。     

Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the principal commercial maritime routes have changed very little. With global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has opened up as a possible avenue of trade in containerized products between Asia and Europe. This paper verifies the technical and economic feasibility of regular container transport along the NSR. By adopting a model schedule between Shanghai and Hamburg, we are able to analyze the relative costs of various axes in the Asia–Europe transport network, including the NSR. While shipping through the Suez Canal is still by far the least expensive option, the NSR and Trans-Siberian Railway appear to be roughly equivalent second-tier alternatives.     

Optimal pricing and order quantity for the newsvendor problem with free shipping

To attract and keep customers, companies, especially those in e-business, are increasingly offering free shipping to buyers whose order sizes exceed the free shipping quantity. In this paper, given the supplier offers free shipping and the retailer faces stochastic demand, we determine the retailer's (i.e., the newsvendor's) optimal order quantity and the optimal selling price simultaneously. We consider two different ways in which price affects the demand distribution, namely price only affects the location or scale of the demand distribution. We explicitly incorporate the supplier's quantity discount and transportation cost into the models. The transportation cost function is very general, which includes those most commonly used in the literature. We numerically examine the impacts of free shipping, quantity discount, transportation cost, and demand variance on the retailer's optimal order quantity and pricing decisions. We find that even though the retailer faces uncertain demand, free shipping can effectively encourage the retailer to order more of the good and can benefit the supplier, the retailer, and the end customers. An increase in transportation cost or a decrease in purchase price will induce the retailer to order more of the good and decrease the retail price. With increasing demand variance, the retailer should order more of the good. We also find that the newsvendor can cope with demand variance by taking advantage of free shipping.     

开放条件下中国货币政策对国际石油价格的影响——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

本文先引入IS-LM-BP模型和AD-AS模型说明中国货币政策因素通过影响石油市场的供需，从而影响石油价格。再采用SVAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解，选择国际石油价格、中国工业增加值、狭义货币供应量、广义货币供应量和利率的月度指标对2005年7月～2015年5月国际油价波动的中国货币政策因素进行实证分析。研究发现：五变量间存在均衡关系，同时中国经济发展对油价的影响程度和时效性最大，其次是货币供应量，M1在短期内对油价的影响比M2显著，利率的影响贡献相对较小。在此结论的基础上，结合中国开放度、石油供需市场、供给侧改革等，提出相关政策建议。     

从复苏走向景气——2010年世界和中国石化工业综述及2011年展望

2010年,世界石化工业缓慢复苏,乙烯装置平均开工率为84.9%,新增乙烯产能1169万吨/年。世界乙烯产量为12328万吨,供应增长大于需求增长。以乙烷为原料的乙烯裂解装置比例在上升。美国仍是最大的乙烯生产国,但产能下降。乙烯及下游产品价格大幅上涨,石化工业进入上升周期,公司利润大幅增加。合成树脂新增产能较多,导致开工率下降;合成纤维产量平稳增长,导致合成纤维原料供应增速较快;合成橡胶供应增长主要来自中国。中国新增乙烯产能304万吨/年,总产能达到1496万吨/年,乙烯产量为1420.5万吨,产能和产量均大幅增加;乙烯当量消费量为2987万吨,增长11.2%。合成树脂产量大幅增长,进口量下降,全年需求增幅已恢复正常水平。合成橡胶供需均快速增长。2011年世界石化工业处于周期的景气阶段;供应增长主要来自中东和亚洲;美国以乙烷为原料的乙烯产能继续增长。中国的乙烯和合成树脂新增能力较少,但消费增速都较快;合成橡胶供应量增加较多,而需求增速下降。     

Managing and modeling the price reduction effect in mobile telecommunications traffic

As needs for telecommunications services diversify, an increasingly wide range of services is becoming available in the market. Service price reduction is one strategy used by service providers to retain existing subscribers. A price reduction for one service, however, can affect the individual-level usage for other services. Price reductions can also be imposed on a service provider by regulation. For these reasons, understanding how price reductions affect service usage is of growing importance to the telecommunications industry for purposes of pricing and tariff development. In this paper, an individual-level usage model for telecommunications services is developed and the effects on usage of a price reduction are analyzed. The model is applied to age-stratified aggregate traffic data for a Korean mobile telecommunication service provider. Finally, a 0-1 integer programming model is proposed for choosing which market segment should be targeted with a price reduction to minimize revenue loss. These models can be applied to market segmentation and price reduction strategy.     

Pricing in revenue management for multiple firms competing for customers

We consider the pricing strategies of multiple firms providing the same service in competition for a common pool of customers in a revenue management context. The firms have finite capacity and the demand at each firm depends on the selling prices charged by all firms, each of which satisfies demand up to a given capacity limit. We use game theory to analyze the systems when firms face either a deterministic demand or a general stochastic demand. The existence and uniqueness conditions of a Nash equilibrium are derived, and we calculate the explicit Nash equilibrium point when the demand at each firm is a linear function of price. We also conduct sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium prices with respect to cost and capacity parameters.     

煤炭市场供需波动与价格风险管理

大秦线的春季检修是历年上半年北方下水煤供应波动的主要因素,通过分析发现大秦线检修带来的供给波动在历年的夏季价格大跌中发挥了关键性作用。除了大秦线检修之外,需求的波动、运输计划的调整等都会带来市场的波动。在供大于求的市场环境下,价格易跌难涨,波动对于短期价格变化有重大影响。价格的下行实际上是在各种供需波动作用下,少涨多跌的动态调整过程。因此,在当前的煤炭经营管理中,应强化波动管理,最大限度地避免供需波动、平滑煤炭供应、稳定市场价格。     

亚洲金融危机对石化工业的影响及思考

1997年的亚洲金融危机对全球的石油及石油化工行业产生了重大影响，石油需求下降，油价下跌，石化产品市场低迷。世界的石化产品贸易格局出现了新的变化，兼并、联合、重组掀起热潮。作为资金和技术密集型的石化工业要注重经济效益，提高国际竞争力，走集约化发展的道路。     

信息产品需求特性与垄断性市场结构

信息产业在供给、需求、市场结构等方面具有与传统产业不同的一些特征。某些特征决定了信息产业中垄断性市场结构为一种常态。本文从信息产品的需求角度出发，通过假设临界点的方法，分别针对信息产品的网络效应和局部边际效用递增效应建立模型，分析了这两种效应对于垄断性市场结构形成的影响，揭示了信息产业在一定条件下垄断性市场结构效率优于完全竞争市场结构。本文表明，信息产品的需求效应对于信息产业的垄断市场结构有着重要影响，往往使得垄断结构强化表现出有利于社会整体福利的趋势。因此，在制定针对信息产业的反垄断政策时，需要考虑信息产业与传统产业的不同特质。本文还以流行音乐产业为例，对模型进行了初步的验证。     

Competitiveness and trade potential of India’s dairy industry

India has become the world’s largest milk producer but its dairy industry lacks market access. This paper determines how world dairy policy reforms would affect dairy production and trade in India and the competitiveness of its dairy industry. We measure nominal protection coefficient for India’s dairy products to determine level and change in competitiveness between 1975 and 2001. We estimate parameters of domestic demand for and supply of raw milk and whole milk powder to determine how a world price increase would affect domestic milk production and whole milk powder exports. Results show that India’s dairy products lack export competitiveness. But with less distorted world dairy markets, India could be competitive and would emerge as a net exporter of whole milk powder, benefiting dairy industries and milk producers in India.     

Analysing agricultural policy reforms under transition in Bulgaria

The elaboration of an appropriate incentive system, including measures of agricultural price and trade policy has important consequences for Bulgarian agriculture. This paper offers a brief picture of the process of reform towards the establishment of a market economy in Bulgaria, as well as of the main developments in its agricultural sector. An analysis is then presented of the impact of alternative agricultural price and trade policy scenarios for the period up to 2002. The results show that the impact of price and trade policies is modest when compared to that of technological change and the increase in incomes. Adoption of the CAP will stimulate production, decrease demand and have strong adverse effects on consumers and taxpayers and wider negative effects on the competitiveness of the food industry. Thus the issue of extending financial support for structural policies rather than granting direct aid requires further investigation.     

Supply network capacity planning for semiconductor manufacturing with uncertain demand and correlation in demand considerations

A semiconductor supply network involves many expensive steps, which have to be executed to serve global markets. The complexity of global capacity planning combined with the large capital expenditures to increase factory capacity makes it important to incorporate optimization methodologies for cost reduction and long-term planning. The typical view of a semiconductor supply network consists of layers for wafer fab, sort, assembly, test and demand centers. We present a two-stage stochastic integer-programming formulation to model a semiconductor supply network. The model makes strategic capacity decisions, (i.e., build factories or outsource) while accounting for the uncertainties in demand for multiple products. We use the model not only to analyze how variability in demand affects the make/buy decisions but also to investigate how the correlation between demands of different products affects these strategic decisions. Finally, we demonstrate the value of incorporating demand uncertainty into a decision-making scheme.     

2011年世界和中国石化工业综述及2012年展望

2011年,世界石化工业继续缓慢复苏,乙烯装置平均开工率为84.3％,新增乙烯产能360万吨/年,均处于较低水平；乙烯产量为12562万吨,供应增长大于需求增幅,乙烯毛利大幅下滑.美国仍是最大的乙烯生产国,国内低廉的气价使得以乙烷为原料的乙烯裂解产量上升.石化产业仍处于周期低谷,乙烯及下游产品价格涨幅小于原油,公司利润下降.合成树脂新增能力较多,导致开工率下降；合纤平稳增长而合纤原料供应增速较快；合成橡胶供应增长主要来自中国.中国新增乙烯产能24万吨/年,总产能达到1520万吨/年；乙烯产量为1553.6万吨；乙烯当量消费量为3132.4万吨,增长4.9％.合成树脂、合成橡胶产量保持较快增长,但需求增速放缓,进口量下降.全国化工行业产值和利润大幅增长.2012年,世界石化工业仍处于周期低谷；供应增长主要来自中东和亚洲；美国以乙烷为原料的乙烯产能继续增长；中国的乙烯和合成树脂新增能力不多,消费增速继续保持较低水平；中国的合成橡胶供应量增加较多,而需求增速下降.     

The Stability of Market Shares in Liner Shipping

The Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) of 1998 significantly shifted the industrial structure of liner shipping markets from one that was dominated by price-fixing liner shipping conferences to one that is dominated by non-binding discussion agreements, global alliances, and long-term confidential contracting. The objective of this paper is to determine the extent to which the abandonment of the liner conference system on U.S. trade lanes affected the market share stability of individual steamship lines. The approach is to estimate a model of market share variation in U.S. liner shipping markets and compare the results under the two separate regulatory regimes.