How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research has followed four distinct paths to investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance of a country, using mostly aggregate trade data. In this paper we choose one of those paths and consider the trade between the U.S. and Canada. However, unlike previous research we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity and consider 152 industries that trade. After estimating inpayment and outpayment schedules for all 152 industries, we find that real depreciation has short-run effects on inpayments of 72 and outpayments of 53 industries. However, the short-run effects translate into the long-run effects only in 43 of inpayment models and 36 of outpayment models. Further analysis reveals that 1% real depreciation of the U.S. dollar has 1.29% positive effects on the U.S. net export earnings.     

Auric Goldfinger,Henry Morgenthau,and Camp David: August 1971

There were two dramatic changes in United States (U.S.) government policy toward the monetary role of gold in the last 100 years. The first was in 1933-34. Private holdings of gold were nationalized in March 1933. Then, the U.S. Treasury adopted a new parity for the U.S. dollar of $35.00 an ounce at the end of January 1934. Gold production surged, the private demand for gold fell sharply and the U.S. experienced large increases in the foreign demand for U.S. dollar securities. There was a massive flow of gold to the U.S. The second change in U.S. gold policy followed a meeting at Camp David in August 1971 when the U.S. Treasury closed its gold window because of the perception that there might be a run on its gold holdings as they declined toward $10 billion. Some U.S. officials sought to diminish the monetary role of gold, which was accomplished by, in effect, setting the U.S. monetary price at zero. The anticipation of some U.S. officials at the Camp David meeting was that the persistent U.S. payments problem would disappear once foreign currencies no longer had parities in terms of the U.S. dollar. The prices of these foreign currencies would increase and the U.S. trade surplus would become larger. Instead, many foreign central banks became even larger buyers of U.S. dollar securities, which led to a higher price of the U.S. dollar and a U.S. trade deficit. The U.S. international investment position morphed from the world’s largest creditor country to the world’s largest debtor.

     

New Estimates of the United States–China BilateralTrade Balances

The United States and China have vastly different official estimates of the bilateral trade imbalance. The U.S. figures show that the United States had a merchandise trade deficit of US$68.7 billion vis-à-vis China in 1999 whereas the Chinese figures show that China had a merchandise trade surplus of only US$22.4 billion vis-à-vis the United States. There is a difference of US$46.3 billion. Which set of figures is right? It turns out that neither side is completely right. Various factors, such as f.o.b.–c.i.f. adjustments and treatments of re-exports and re-export markups, complicate the measurement of the bilateral trade balance between the United States and China. One important conclusion that emerges is that while U.S. trade statistics may be more reliable than Chinese trade statistics, even they are not completely accurate. By explicitly taking into account the aforementioned factors, the discrepancy between the adjusted U.S. and Chinese data on the bilateral trade balance in 1999 is narrowed from US$46.3 billion to US$4.8 billion, or approximately 10% of the initial figure. Our best estimate for the true U.S.–China bilateral merchandise trade balance for 1999 is US$47.8 billion, in China's favor. If we take into account the trade in services, in which the United States has traditionally enjoyed a surplus, the U.S.–China bilateral trade balance may be estimated at approximately US$45 billion in 1999. Compared with the U.S. trade deficit with Japan (over US$70 billion in 1999), the U.S.–China trade deficit, appropriately adjusted, is still significantly smaller. J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 2001, 15(1), pp. 102–130. Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95064; and Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305-6072. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F10, F13.     

The Japanese–U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data

While it is often assumed that a country's trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate, this is not necessarily the case for specific goods. In the short run, the opposite might even take place, as fixed quantities and rising import prices cause the trade balance to deteriorate. In this paper, we apply cointegration methodology to assess the short- and long-run impact of fluctuations in the yen–dollar real exchange rate on Japan's trade balance with the U.S. for 117 industries. We find that depreciation causes the trade balance to improve in the long-run for about one-third of Japanese industries. Most short-run effects are in the same direction, indicating a quick improvement in these industries’ trade balance, rather than a period of deterioration such as a “J-curve.”     

Factor adjustment implications of a free trade agreement between the United States and Thailand

Changes in intra-industry specialization indicators are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may be experienced by U.S. and Thai industries from a proposed U.S.–Thailand Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Many industries experienced large increases in intra-industry trade over the 2000–2008 period. Ten U.S. industries are found to be candidates for factor adjustment pressures based on past experiences. These industries account for 38% of all U.S. imports from Thailand and 4% of imports from all trading partners. Results also show that nine Thai industries face possible adjustment pressures. These industries account for 9% of Thai imports from the United States. An FTA should result in a larger increase in U.S. exports to Thailand than U.S. imports from Thailand because Thai exporters face much lower tariffs in the U.S. market than do U.S. exporters in the Thai market.     

Should East Asia’s currencies be pegged to the yen? The role of invoice currency

Growing concern that a dollar peg exposes East Asian economies to fluctuations in the dollar–yen exchange rate has stimulated research on currency basket regimes as alternatives for these economies. However, existing studies have mostly ignored an important characteristic of East Asia, i.e., most of its international trade is invoiced in the U.S. dollars. This paper investigates how the preponderance of dollar invoicing affects optimal currency basket regimes for East Asian economies. I develop a three-country center-periphery sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the analysis. The model is solved numerically by taking second-order approximations to the policy functions with the expected lifetime utility of households chosen as the welfare criterion. Contrary to the conjecture of existing literature, I show that predominance of dollar invoicing implies that the dollar should receive a smaller weight than suggested by bilateral trade shares between emerging markets in East Asia and the United States. The results hinge on the interaction of different degrees of pass-through implied by the choice of invoice currency and endogenous responses of monetary policies in the center countries.     

世界经济再平衡和美国套利

美国次贷危机引发了席卷全球的金融危机,长期的低利率货币政策和赤字财政政策是引发美国次贷危机的主要原因。贸易保护和美元贬值将是美国未来减少贸易赤字和刺激经济复苏的重要政策取向,在所谓世界经济"再平衡"过程中美国将会实现双向套利。作为持有大量美元外汇资产的美国最大逆差国,中国应该保持人民币与美元汇率的稳定,逐步减持美元债券,加快生产与贸易结构调整,推动国际经济体制和国际金融体系的改革。     

An equilibrium foundation of the Soros chart

The most prominent characteristic of the Japanese yen/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate in the post-Plaza Accord era is near random-walk behavior sharing a common stochastic trend with the two-country monetary base differential augmented with excess reserves. In this paper, we develop a simple two-country incomplete-market model equipped with domestic reserve markets to structurally investigate this anecdotal evidence known as the Soros chart. In this model, we theoretically verify that a market discount factor close to one generates near random-walk behavior of an equilibrium nominal exchange rate in accordance with a permanent component of the augmented monetary base differential as an economic fundamental. Results of a Bayesian posterior simulation with post-Plaza Accord data of Japan and the United States plausibly support our model as a data generating process of the Japanese yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The model identifies the two-country differential in money demand shocks as the main generator of the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar under the Abenomics. We discuss data evidence that the identified money demand shocks are tightly correlated with longer-term interest rate differentials between the two countries.     

论美国虚拟资本主义的运行逻辑

当前,以美国为代表的资本主义进入了虚拟资本主义阶段。所谓虚拟资本主义,是指资本主义的经济主体从生产物质产品的工业转移到了游离于物质产品生产之外的金融业。美国虚拟资本主义之所以能够生存有两个前提条件：一是亚洲外汇储备能够稳定地流向美国;二是美国的金融资本能够很畅通地流向储备了大量美元外汇的国家。欧元推出后,亚洲外汇储备开始大规模地流向欧洲,从而动摇了美国虚拟资本主义生存的第一个条件;中国储备了大量美元外汇,但金融市场却没有完全开放,致使美国金融资本不能很畅通地流入中国,从而动摇了美国虚拟资本主义生存的第二个条件。美国虚拟资本主义遭遇到的这两个生存威胁是美国次贷危机发生的深层次原因。     

美元贬值对美国经常账户影响的估值效应分析

本文运用资产组合模型和协整计量方法,论证了美元汇率变化所带来的估值效应对美国经常账户调节的影响。分析结果表明,美元贬值引致的估值效应很小,再加上美元贬值可能使美国短期债务利率上升,这就很容易抵销掉贬值所带来的估值收益。因此,美国巨大的贸易赤字不可能通过美元贬值所带来的估值效应得以纠正。     

Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns

We apply a modified "gravity model" incorporating measures of factor endowments to analyze Japanese and U.S. bilateral trade flows and direct foreign investment positions with a sample of around 100 countries for the period 1985–1990. Country features that our analysis takes into account are population, income, the land–labor ratio, the average level of education, and region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be associated with more direct foreign investment (DFI) from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United States, not only as a source of imports, but also as a destination for U.S. exports than most countries in Western Europe. Taking other factors into account, however, Western Europe is more open to U.S. direct foreign investment. We also find that a country′s level of education tends to increase significantly U.S. interaction of all types with that country, even after correcting for per capita income. Education does not play a significant role in Japanese trade patterns. As factor endowment theory would predict, the United States tends to trade more with densely populated countries, while Japan tends to import more from sparsely populated countries. Even after taking into account population, income, factor endowments, and region, there is a substantial degree of "bilateralism" in Japanese and U.S. economic relationships in that the residual correlation among exports, imports, and outward direct foreign investment is much larger than would be the case if these magnitudes were independent across countries. J. Japan. Int. Econ. December 1994, 8(4), pp. 478–510. Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.     

"广场协议"后的美元/日元汇率与美日双边贸易失衡

1985年"广场协议"的最主要目标是通过美元对全球主要货币特别是对日元的贬值来缩减美国的贸易逆差。然而,对1985-2006年美元/日元汇率、美日双边贸易差额等数据进行的分析说明,美元/日元汇率变动对美日双边贸易收支变动没有解释能力,美元对日元的贬值没有解决美日之间的贸易失衡问题。我们有理由相信,人民币对美元的升值也同样不能解决当代美中之间的贸易失衡问题。     

美国经济波动对中国经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究

在开放经济条件下,一国的经济波动会通过国际贸易、国际投资等资本的跨国流动传导到别的国家。鉴于美国已经成为中国主要的贸易伙伴和FDI来源国,其经济的波动会对中国的经济产生很大的影响,因此本文运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,在以双边贸易与投资为传导纽带,暗含汇率变化影响的基础上定量分析了美国经济波动对中国经济冲击的长期传导机制和短期动态影响特征。冲击响应分析结果表明,美国经济对中国经济的影响更大,美国经济的波动主要通过影响中国对美国出口的途径对中国经济增长造成冲击;方差分解结果显示,中国经济对美国经济的贡献更大。     

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade

Previous studies of the effects of exchange rate changes on Korea’s trade balance have assumed symmetry between currency depreciation and appreciation. In this paper, we distinguish between the two to show that the effects at the industry level are in fact asymmetrical in most industries for Korea’s bilateral trade with the U.S. We employ an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using quarterly data for the period 1989–2014 for the 79 3-digit industries in which trade between Korea and the U.S. took place. Overall, our model incorporating differentiated responses for appreciation versus depreciation reveals a more significant impact of the exchange rate on commodity trade between Korea and the U.S. than a more standard model that imposes symmetry.     

Revaluation of the Chinese Yuan and triad trade: A gravity assessment

The literature had paid little attention to the endogenous nexus between exchange rates and bilateral trade. In this paper, I use a gravity model to investigate the two-way causality between exchange rates and bilateral trade with data from China, Japan, and the United States during the 2002–2007 period. After controlling for the simultaneous bias between exchange rates and bilateral trade, the extensive empirical evidence shows that the revaluation of the Chinese Yuan against the dollar significantly reduced China's exports to the United States but had no significant effects on China's exports to Japan. These findings are robust to different measures, econometric methods, and period coverage.     

美国服务贸易的环境效应——以出口为例

本文以当今世界服务业发展水平最高的美国为例,在对跨境服务贸易和外国附属机构服务贸易分类比较的基础上,通过对2002年6种主要污染物的12个服务业部门的污染排放进行基于8个主要贸易伙伴的国别计算,横向比较美国服务出口对本国造成的环境影响,借此重新认识美国各服务业部门参与国际贸易的环境污染状况,在此基础上提出环保约束下美国调整服务业发展格局及优化对外服务贸易地理的若干政策建议。     

Poverty and protectionism

The United States had a trade deficit of $170 billion in 1987 and, even though the value of the dollar has been declining, the deficit has shown no consistent pattern of improvement. The magnitude and persistence of the trade imbalance has led to a great deal of discussion of its impact on the U.S. economy and of policies that might be used to correct the imbalance. One major consideration that is often overlooked is the distributional and equity effect of the trade situation on the poor. While some advocates embrace protectionist policies as a means of “saving” jobs for low-income Americans, others argue that these measures raise the cost of goods used by the poor with no guarantee that jobs are actually saved. The following article reviews the available evidence on the position of low-income Americans under a policy of protectionism.     

中美反补贴争端的起源与发展趋势

随着中美两国贸易的快速发展,两国之间的贸易争端也日渐频繁,不断增加。中美两国有关反补贴争端就是近年来新产生的一种贸易争端。长期以来,美国一直奉行不对"非市场经济国家"适用反补贴法的政策,然而,在美国贸易保护政策进一步抬头、国会压力不断增大以及国内一些产业的产品竞争力不断减弱的背景下,美国政府首次对非市场经济国家的进口产品适用反补贴法。这一做法,必将使中美反补贴争端愈演愈烈。中国政府和企业必须高度重视,认真对待,决不能掉以轻心。     

The impact of the U.S. unfair trade laws: A preliminary assessment

The Impact of the U. S. Unfair Trade Laws: A Preliminary Assessment.- This paper examines how the U.S. unfair trade laws affect imports and import-competing industries. It does so by analyzing data from the U. S. antidumping and antisubsidy cases completed between 1980 and 1992. The results of the paper suggest that the U. S. unfair trade laws significantly reduced “unfair” imports during this period. The paper also finds evidence that U.S. producers were the primary beneficiaries of this import reduction.     

人民币汇率对中美双边贸易的影响——基于多边汇率与双边汇率的研究

本文运用协整向量自回归模型(cointegrating VAR)、误差修正模型(VEC)和方差分解等计量方法,研究人民币对美元双边实际汇率、人民币多边汇率变化与中美双边进、出口及贸易差额的关系,并在模型中引入供给弹性和政策变量以提高检验的准确性。研究结果表明:人民币汇率是影响中美双边贸易的重要因素,人民币汇率升值可以改善中美双边贸易不平衡,其效应在短期内即可显现,但对双边进、出口的影响则取决于人民币对美元双边实际汇率变化与多边汇率变化的综合比较,两国经济增长均将扩大我国对美出口和美、中贸易逆差,而贸易政策对双边贸易的影响也不可忽视。