股指期货市场金融加速器效应的实证分析

金融加速器理论认为,由于存在着摩擦成本,金融市场的波动可能是非对称的,体现为相对于扩张金融市场状态,紧缩金融市场状态下冲击的波动更加剧烈,由此产生加速效应。本文采用向量自回归模型系列对次贷危机期间S&P500股指期货市场波动状态进行了计量检验,验证了其非对称波动的金融加速器效应,揭示了股指期货市场与股票现货市场之间的风险衍生机制,旨在为我国沪深300指数期货交易的风险防范提供借鉴。     

Financial centers and ownership concentration: When is ownership concentration value relevant? Evidence from an emerging market

Does the location of a firm’s headquarter effect ownership concentration? Do stock market participants value ownership concentration differently for firms located at different geographic locations? Using data from India, this paper shows that firms headquartered in Mumbai, the main financial center of a country, have lower ownership concentration than firms headquartered elsewhere. We argue that clustering of firms in the financial center reduce information asymmetries and lower the incentives for concentrated ownership. Our results also show that as the extent of analyst following increase, the difference between ownership concentration of firms headquartered in Mumbai and firms headquartered elsewhere goes up. We argue that higher analyst coverage reduces information asymmetries quicker for firms headquartered in the financial center and results in larger difference between the two groups. In addition, we also show that ownership concentration is value relevant only for firms headquartered in the non-financial centers. We show no relationship between ownership concentration and firm performance and valuation in the financial centers. This paper provides evidence that location of a firm’s headquarter in the financial center can significantly alter its information environment. Reduced information asymmetries lower the incentives for concentrated ownership in the financial centers.     

东亚国家金融结构与经济增长的实证研究

文章首先通过构造衡量金融结构的不同指标,运用金融结构与经济增长的动态面板数据模型,并用广义矩估计法进行估计,得出了在人均GDP高的国家,股票市场比重也高的结论;为验证其显著性,文章把东亚国家分成银行主导型和市场主导型两组分别回归,结论是股票市场比重的提高与人均GDP有显著的关系, 因此, 东亚国家应积极发展股票市场,提高银行体系和股票市场的效率。     

Impact of short selling activity on market dynamics: Evidence from an emerging market

With unique daily short sale data of Borsa Istanbul (stock exchange of Turkey), we investigate the dynamic relationship between short selling activity and volatility, liquidity and market return from January 2005 to December 2012 using a VAR(p)-cDCC-FIEGARCH(1,d,1) approach. Our findings suggest that short sellers are contrarian traders and contribute to efficient stock market in Turkey. We also show that increased short selling activity is associated with higher liquidity and decreased volatility. However this relation weakens during the financial turmoil of 2008. Our results indicate that any ban on short sales may be detrimental for financial stability and market quality in Turkey.     

加入WTO后发展两岸金融关系的策略研究

两岸加入WTO不但将对双方各自的经济金融发展产生重要影响 ,而且势必对两岸金融关系的发展带来新的机遇 ,“入世”可以说是促进两岸关系发展的契机。在WTO的框架下 ,应积极发挥港澳在两岸金融交往中的中介作用 ,推动两岸互设金融机构 ,以及加强货币兑换和资本市场方面的合作。     

Price informativeness and stock return synchronicity: Evidence from the pricing of seasoned equity offerings

We investigate what stock return synchronicity reflects in terms of price informativeness by examining its effect on the pricing of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). Based on 5,087 SEOs from 1984 to 2007, we find a significantly negative relation between stock return synchronicity (estimated as the logit transformation of the R-squared statistic from a two-factor regression) and SEO discounts (the percentage differences between pre-offer day closing prices and offer prices). The negative relation is strongest when there is no analyst coverage, and it declines as analyst coverage increases. This shows that stock price is more informative when stock return synchronicity is higher and also that information asymmetry can be mitigated by analyst coverage. We further decompose stock return synchronicity into the market comovement and industry comovement components and find that both components are equally important in affecting SEO discounts.     

新能源汽车财务与非财务消息对股市影响的多维特征及差异

新能源汽车股市是投资者对公司财务绩效、政策导向、技术水平和发展前景等多方面因素综合反应的结果。将新能源汽车产业相关消息分为"财务"和"非财务"消息,应用事件研究法从"敏感性""、强弱性"和"持续性"三个维度分析了财务与非财务类消息对于新能源汽车股市影响的差异性。结果表明,新能源汽车非财务类消息对于股市表现影响的强度和持续性相对更显著。新能源汽车非财务类消息中的政策、市场消息对于股市表现影响的敏感性要高于技术消息,政策、技术消息对于股市表现影响的强度明显高于市场消息,技术消息对于股市表现影响的持续性明显优于政策和市场类消息。新能源汽车产业的政策扶持不应仅仅关注现阶段新能源汽车制造商的财务指标,更应高度关注新能源汽车制造商的创新能力。制造商要进一步加大新能源汽车的研发投入,通过资本市场的合理融资促进新能源汽车技术创新和长期盈利能力提升。     

Audit committee financial expertise and properties of analyst earnings forecasts

An important role of financial accounting information is to aid financial statement users in forming expectations about the firm's future earnings. Prior research finds that accounting financial expertise of the audit committee is associated with higher financial reporting quality. We extend this literature by examining the association between audit committee financial expertise and analysts' ability to anticipate future earnings. We find a significant association between accounting financial expertise on the audit committee and analyst earnings forecasts that are more accurate and less dispersed. In contrast, we do not find a significant association between non-accounting financial expertise (i.e., supervisory expertise) and forecast accuracy or forecast dispersion. These findings contribute to our understanding of the benefits of accounting expertise in audit committees by demonstrating an association between accounting financial expertise and improvements in analyst earnings forecasts.     

Institutional investor horizon and stock price synchronicity: Do product market competition and analyst coverage matter?

This paper provides new insights into the relation between institutional investment horizon and stock price synchronicity and investigates whether this relationship depends on the intensity of product market competition and analyst coverage. Based on a sample of French listed companies, we find that long-term (short-term) institutional investors are associated with lower (higher) stock price synchronicity. The results also show that the negative effect of long-term institutional investors is more accentuated for firms in less competitive markets and with high analyst coverage. An additional analysis shows that the synchronicity reduction effect does not vary during the financial crisis. Overall, these findings suggest that unlike their short-term counterparts, long term investors reduce asymmetric information and help disseminate firm-specific information into stock prices.     

论金融统计中金融资产的分类调整

本文首先介绍了目前金融统计中金融资产的分类与建议财务会计中的金融资产分类．然后给出建议的金融统计中金融资产的分类调整结果,重点介绍了其中的各个金融资产类型,还针对金融资产流量核算、金融存量核算、金融市场统计等问题提出统一协调的建议。论文最后作了总结,展望了后续研究。     

Adoption of IFRS in Spain: Effect on the comparability and relevance of financial reporting

EU Regulation 1606/2002 requires application of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by groups listed on European stock markets. In Spain, listed groups are now obliged to prepare consolidated financial information under IFRS, and legislative changes to bring local rules into line with international standards have been tabled.In this context, the potential impact of IFRS is fraught with uncertainty. Our study of IBEX-35 companies focuses on the effects of the new standards on comparability and the relevance of financial reporting in Spain. We address these objectives by seeking significant differences between accounting figures and financial ratios under the two sets of standards (i.e. Spanish accounting standards and IFRS).The results obtained show that local comparability has worsened. The study reveals that local comparability is adversely affected if both IFRS and local accounting standards are applied in the same country at the same time. Reforms to bring local rules into line with international standards are therefore urgent. We also find that there has been no improvement in the relevance of financial reporting to local stock market operators because the gap between book and market values is wider when IFRS are applied. While there has been no gain in terms of the usefulness of financial reporting in the short-term, improved usefulness may be achieved in the medium to long-term.     

中国上市公司融资结构及行为分析

本文对中国上市公司从1998年到2004年的融资情况进行统计分析,发现内源融资是中国上市公司资金的主要来源,其次是金融机构借款、股权融资和债券融资,总体看企业间接融资比例在上升,直接融资比例在下降,股权融资明显受政策和市场的影响。本文建立了一个基于不同决策目标的融资决策模型,研究表明在股权帐面价值最大化目标下的融资决策比股价最大化目标下的融资决策有更多的机会选择股权融资,但是当股市低迷,市价接近或低于账面价值时,这种差异减弱或消失。     

中国金融周期与横向关联:时空双维度相结合视角

宏观审慎政策关注各金融子市场在时间维度上的金融周期和空间维度上的横向关联。本文结合时间维度与空间维度视角,使用股票市场、货币市场、房地产市场以及信贷市场的数据,测算2001—2019年中国金融周期和横向关联的波动特征、作用关系与频域叠加机理。研究结果表明:时间维度金融周期与空间维度横向关联的波动趋势具有一致性。我国金融周期长度约为10.33年,横向关联波动周期的长度约为10.58年。从作用关系上看,首先,我国房地产周期达到波峰后,会对股票市场和信贷市场产生较强的溢出效应。随后,股市周期达到波峰后,会向房地产市场和信贷市场产生较强的溢出效应。最后,我国信贷市场接受股票市场和房地产市场溢出后,信贷周期会逐渐达到波峰。从频域叠加机理的角度看,我国金融子市场间横向关联的波动主要由中低频波段驱动,中低频波段横向关联的持续期在2个月以上。     

中国证券市场超额税负或早已进入"拉弗禁区"

本文认为,在虚拟经济领域,政府也应该坚持量能负担原则,依据金融市场个体与整体的负担能力进行课税,不能课及税本。并进一步从理论的角度,阐释了金融市场超额税收所造成的负面效应;从实证的角度,剖析了中国证券市场超额税收的问题,提出了减轻证券市场超额税负的路径。     

Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth

Is the financial system important for economic growth? One lineof research argues that it is not; another line stresses theimportance of the financial system in mobilizing savings, allocatingcapital, exerting corporate control, and easing risk management.Moreover, some theories provide a conceptual basis for the beliefthat larger, more efficient stock markets boost economic growth.This article examines whether there is a strong empirical associationbetween stock market development and long-run economic growth.Cross-country growth regressions suggest that the predeterminedcomponent of stock market development is positively and robustlyassociated with long-run economic growth.     

The 2011 European short sale ban: A cure or a curse?

This paper examines whether the 2011 European short sale ban on financial stocks proved to be successful or had a negative impact on financial markets. We explicitly take an options market perspective and focus on market participants’ changes in beliefs and expectations. During the ban, short positions in banned stocks decreased, whereas they increased for non-banned stocks. Our results indicate that the ban increased implied jump risk levels, thereby negatively impacting the banned financial stocks. However, we also observe that after the announcement of the ban, financial contagion risk actually dropped for banned stocks. Instead of a substitution effect between regular short selling and synthetic shorting through single stock puts, we observe a migration out of single stock puts into the EuroStoxx 50 index options market. We conclude that this type of migration diversified selling pressure initially concentrated in financial stocks across a larger share of the stock market, thereby reducing systemic risks and enhancing overall financial stability.     

股市波动影响下我国金融发展与经济增长的实证研究

摘要：金融发展理论表明,金融发展能促进资本形成,进而推动经济增长。在我国股市波动的作用影响下．我国金融发展其促进资本形成的功能是否会发生变化？会发生哪些变化？本文利用标准实证增长模型．对我国金融发展和经济增长的关系进行了基于股市波动条件下的实证分析。文章发现：正常的股市波动更有利-y-~．融发展,促进投资,推动经济增长;而受到金融危机冲击下的股市波动则往往会显著的限制金融发展的资本形成。使经济发展遭受损失。     

监测系统性金融风险——中国金融市场压力指数构建和状态识别

对系统性金融风险进行识别和评估,日益成为各国中央银行的核心关切。囿于数据频率,基于金融机构经营稳健性评估的金融系统性风险监测存在一定的滞后性,不利于中央银行及时进行风险应对,利用金融市场交易数据进行风险监测可极大程度克服滞后性问题。本文根据中国金融市场特点,选取债券市场、股票市场、货币市场和外汇市场17个有代表性的指标,运用经验累积分布函数法分别构造了各子市场的压力指数,以各子市场之间时变的相关关系刻画系统性金融风险的跨市场传染特征,合成金融市场压力指数,并通过建立马尔可夫区制转换模型,对金融市场压力状态进行识别。金融市场压力指数能有效反映样本域内的压力事件,并兼具稳健性、能逐日监测等优点,为监测评估系统性金融风险、选择政策实施窗口和评估政策实施效果等提供了有力工具。     

Did Regulation Fair Disclosure,SOX, and Other Analyst Regulations Reduce Security Mispricing?

Between 2000 and 2003 a series of disclosure and analyst regulations curbing abusive financial reporting and analyst behavior were enacted to strengthen the information environment of U.S. capital markets. We investigate whether these regulations reduced security mispricing and increased stock market efficiency. After the regulations, we find a significant reduction in short‐term stock price continuation following analyst forecast revisions and earnings announcements. The effect was more pronounced among higher information uncertainty firms, where we expect security valuation to be most sensitive to regulation. Analyst forecast accuracy also improved in these firms, consistent with reduced mispricing being due to an improved corporate information environment following the regulations. Our findings are robust to controls for time trends, trading activity, the financial crisis, analyst coverage, delistings, and changes in information uncertainty proxies. We find no concurrent effect among European firms and a regression discontinuity design supports our identification of a regulatory effect.     

Individual investors’ information use,subjective expectations,and portfolio risk and return

What information do individual investors use when making their financial decisions and how is it related to their stock market expectations, their confidence in these expectations, and the risk and return of their stock portfolios? I study these questions by combining survey data on the information usage among individual investors in Sweden with detailed registry data on their stock portfolios. I find that investors use filtered financial information (e.g. information packaged by a professional intermediary) more frequently than they use unfiltered financial information (e.g. information from annual reports and financial statements). Investors who frequently use filtered financial information are, however, more confident in their stock market expectations and take larger risks in their stock portfolios. Investors that instead use unfiltered financial information take lower portfolio risks and obtain higher portfolio returns. The findings in this paper thus suggest that investors can improve their financial decisions by using more unfiltered financial information rather than filtered financial information when they make their financial decisions.