"中性税收"范畴集的再造与理论推想

"中性税收"范畴是西方税收理论的核心内容。本文在剖析西方"中性税收"范畴理论局限性的基础上,以"超额税收与税收超额负担"概念为基础,提出了新的"中性税收"范畴集。新的"中性税收"涵盖适度税收、效率税收、宪政税收的基本特征,这一理论框架具有更强的理论包容性与政策应用性。     

我国税收超额负担：国际比较与优化路径

在我国税收规模连年高速增长,税收负担是否过重热议的背景下,从税收超额负担的视角对各国税收效率进行了比较,并测算了全面减税和对间接税减税两种政策的经济效应。结果表明,中国的税收超额负担处于中等水平,但仍存在减税增效的空间;对间接税减税的结构性减税政策能更好的符合稳物价、调结构的政策目标。     

不同类型增值税的税收中性分析

我国采用生产型增值税,增值税的税收中性特征没有充分体现出来,对于宏观经济运行和微观主体的行为都有一定的干扰。从税收中性的角度分析,消费型增值税的超额税收负担最小,最符合增值税的中性特征,是我国增值税改革的方向。     

现行主要税种税收超额负担分析

税收超额负担是超过政府所征集的税收收入而形成的社会净福利损失。税收超额负担是税收效率分析的核心，它可以借助于消费者和生产者剩余以及无差异曲线进行分析，分析过程应更关注征税引起的价格变动的替代效应，我国现行主体税种都不同程度地破坏了各种市场资源配置的均衡条件，降低了经济运行效率，产生了超额负担。通过对税收超额负担的分析能够得出有助于提高资源配置效率的各种结论。     

税收超额负担分析

税收超额负担是税收效率分析的核心，它可以借助于消费者剩余和生产者剩余及无差异曲线进行分析，分析过程应更关注征税引起的价格变动的替代效应。我国现行主体税种都不同程度地破坏了各种市场资源配置的均衡条件，降低了经济运行效率，产生了超额负担。     

导读

"中性税收"范畴集是指税收中性原则以及税收超额负担等系列相关概念,是西方税收理论的核心内容。这一理论是否完全科学合理?是否具有局限性?如何对其局限性进行再造?《"中性税收"范畴集的再造与理论推想》一文在剖析西方"中性税收"范畴理论局限性的基础上,以"超额税收与税收超额负     

基于金砖国家数据的证券市场开放对资本成本影响的实证分析

本文运用金砖国家的数据,考察了证券市场开放对金融市场风险的影响,间接地考察了证券市场开放对资本成本的影响.实证结果显示,长期来看,证券市场的开放会降低金融市场的波动率,从而降低资本成本.短期来看,证券市场的开放会增加金融市场的波动率,但巴西的成功经验值得中国借鉴.本文从资本成本、资本积累的角度为金融开放促进经济增长提供了部分的实证证据.     

中国证券市场的缺陷及改革路径评析

本文从垄断金融特点分析其在金融市场的制度性缺陷,回顾分析了我国证券市场发展的路径依赖和政策措施,从后WTO时期开放的角度,提出了规范发展证券市场的建议。     

我国台湾地区证券交易税的演变历史研究

通过税收手段对证券市场进行调控的研究一直受到广泛的关注。台湾地区从1955年开始征收证券交易税以来,曾经有四次停征、复征以及多次税率调整。本文研究台湾地区证券交易税演变的历史,从台湾不同时期的金融市场建设、产业发展政策、政治背景以及社会实情等角度,剖析了证券交易税四次停征和复征的原因。在借鉴台湾地区证券交易税征收历史经验的基础上,提出大陆地区未来利用证券交易税来调节证券市场的建议。     

金融市场发展中的税收立法选择——以税收对金融市场的调控功能为核心

次贷危机的发生引起世界对金融创新风险的广泛关注。为应对这次危机,税收作为财政政策工具,为各国普遍采用。但对适用于金融交易本身的税法规则,各国却未能进行深刻的反思。为促进本国金融市场发展而不断调低对金融交易的税收负担,必须经由比例原则和纳税人权利的审查而获得合理正当化的基础。减轻金融交易的税收负担对促进金融市场健康、稳定、有序发展的作用极为有限,反而在一定程度上削弱了公民权利实现的财政基础。随着金融市场从国民经济的核心演化为投机场所,各国对其课以低税负甚至免税缺乏必要的正当性。因此,对金融市场课税,应当重视的不只是其对金融市场发展的调节功能,而更应当关注税收所固有的财政收入功能,并以此为基础,遵循量能课税原则着手金融交易课税规则的构建。     

Coincident and leading indicators of the stock market

In this paper we have two goals: first, we want to represent monthly stock market fluctuations by constructing a non-linear coincident financial indicator. The indicator is constructed as an unobservable factor whose first moment and conditional volatility are driven by a two-state Markov variable. It can be interpreted as the investors' real-time belief about the state of financial conditions. Second, we want to explore an approach in which investors may use their perceptions of the state of the economy to form forecasts of financial market conditions and possibly of excess returns. To investigate this, we build leading indicators as forecasts of the estimated coincident financial index. The leading indicators yield better within and out-of-sample performance in forecasting, not only the state of the stock market but also of excess stock returns, as compared with the performance obtained using linear methods that have been proposed in the existing literature.     

Empirical analysis of real and financial volatilities on stock excess returns: evidence from Taiwan industrial data

This paper tests the relation between stock excess returns and risk factors measured by volatility. The sources of the volatility are based on the volatility of macroeconomic factors and time-series volatility. To model the macroeconomic fundamentals, we divide the risk into real and financial volatilities pertinent to Taiwan's economic environment. By examining the data of indusry excess returns and market excess returns, we find evidence to reject the hypothesis that the stock excess returns are independent of the real and financial volatilities.     

Stock Market Reaction to the Bank Liquidation in Japan: A Case for the Informational Effect Hypothesis

Previous studies investigating the stock market reaction to U.S. bank failures rejected the bank run or domino hypothesis. However, if providing relevant bank information to the public is crucial to preventing bank panics, Japanese banks with limited disclosure are more vulnerable to bank runs than their U.S. counterparts. In this paper, I investigate the stock market reaction to Hyogo Bank's liquidation on August 30, 1995, which was the first bank liquidation in Japan and placed the financial burden on the general public. I find that stock market participants distinguished solvent banks from problematic banks. That is, my results, supporting the informational effect hypothesis, suggest that it is questionable even in Japan for the government to bail out an insolvent bank based on the potential risk of bank runs.     

东亚国家金融结构与经济增长的实证研究

文章首先通过构造衡量金融结构的不同指标,运用金融结构与经济增长的动态面板数据模型,并用广义矩估计法进行估计,得出了在人均GDP高的国家,股票市场比重也高的结论;为验证其显著性,文章把东亚国家分成银行主导型和市场主导型两组分别回归,结论是股票市场比重的提高与人均GDP有显著的关系, 因此, 东亚国家应积极发展股票市场,提高银行体系和股票市场的效率。     

Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests

This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamic co-movements between gold returns, stock market returns and stock market volatility during the recent global financial crisis for the UK (FTSE 100), the US (S&P 500) and Japan (Nikkei 225). Initially, the bivariate dynamic relationships between i) gold returns and stock market returns and ii) gold returns and stock market volatility are tested; both of these relationships are further investigated in the multivariate nonlinear settings by including changes in the three-month LIBOR rates. In this paper correlation integrals based on the bivariate model show significant evidence of nonlinear feedback effect among the variables during the financial crisis period for all the countries understudy. Very limited evidence of significant feedback is found during the pre-crisis period. Results from the multivariate tests including changes in the LIBOR rates provide results similar to the bivariate results. These results imply that gold may not perform well as a safe haven during the financial crisis period due to the bidirectional interdependence between gold returns and, stock returns as well as stock market volatility. However, gold may be used as a hedge against stock market returns and volatility in stable financial conditions.     

Macro variables and the components of stock returns

We conduct a decomposition for the stock market return by incorporating the information from 124 macro variables. Using factor analysis, we estimate six common factors and run a VAR containing these factors and financial variables such as the market dividend yield and the T-bill rate. Including the macro factors does not have a significant impact in the estimation of the components of aggregate (excess) stock returns—cash-flow, discount-rate, and interest-rate news. Using the macro factors in the computation of cash-flow and discount-rate news does not significantly improve the fit of a two-factor ICAPM for the cross-section of stock returns.     

Does financial market liberalization increase the degree of market efficiency? The case of the Athens stock exchange

In this paper we assess if the financial market liberalization introduced in the beginning of the 1990s in Greece has changed the degree of market development (efficiency) by studying time-varying global Hurst exponents. Our results suggest that changes in financial market liberalization have important positive implications on the degree of development of stock markets. These results have important policy implications for the development of stock markets around the world.     

Do Decomposed Financial Ratios Predict Stock Returns and Fundamentals Better?

We investigate the prediction of excess returns and fundamentals by financial ratios, which include dividend‐price ratios, earnings‐price ratios, and book‐to‐market ratios, by decomposing financial ratios into a cyclical component and a stochastic trend component. We find both components predict excess returns and fundamentals. Cyclical components predict increases in future stock returns, while stochastic trend components predict declines in future stock returns in long horizons. This helps explain previous findings that financial ratios in the absence of decomposition find weak predictive power in short horizons and some predictive power in long horizons. We also find both components predict fundamentals.     

开展股指期货交易--我国证券市场发展的现实选择

作为一种创新型金融衍生产品，股指期货丰富了市场交易品种，而双向交易机制的引进可以规避系统性风险，从而有利于资本市场的平稳运行。但是，股指期货交易的开展必须基于一国的基本国情，本文从股指期货的比较优势入手，结合我国当前实际情况，对我国股指期货的开展进行了分析。     

中国股市羊群效应的区制转移时变性研究

传统研究采用静态CCK模型检验股票市场的羊群效应,但无法描述羊群行为的动态变化以及市场可能受到的外部影响。本文基于中国股市日频交易数据,在静态CCK模型中引入参数的区制转移性质识别股市在不同状态间的转换,并分析中国股市羊群效应和交叉羊群效应的时变特征。研究表明,中国股市运行周期可被划分为两个区制,分别呈现低波动和高波动的行情特征;羊群效应的程度随区制转移而变化,具有区制依存性。其中,沪深股市在高(低)波动区制中,羊群效应更强(弱),相应区制持续时间较短(长);中国台湾股市仅在高波动区制中出现羊群效应,相应区制持续时间较短;中国香港股市无论在低波动区制或是高波动区制中,均不存在羊群效应。此外,沪深A股在低波动区制中对美国股市和中国香港股市存在交叉羊群效应。