Prices,policies, and place: What drives greenfield development?

While the recent global financial crisis heightened awareness of the linkages between global financial capital and urban spatial pattern, the timing of urban development – largely thought to be market driven – is not fully understood. Parcel-level studies of urban land-use change, which often use hazard models to investigate if and when development occurs, offer an opportunity to juxtapose the extent to which decisions to develop individual plots of farmland into housing are driven by market forces, the unique characteristics of the land and its intraurban location, or policies such as transportation infrastructure and municipal annexation. Using residential completion data in the Phoenix, Arizona region from 1992 to 2014, a period of dramatic commodity, fuel, and home price swings, and land cover imagery, we develop a parcel-level hazard model to gauge the relative impacts of market, policy, and place-based drivers of land change. We find limited evidence of induced development associated with freeway planning, that annexation and development are closely linked and moreso during economic booms, high fuel prices spur development in the region's core, and agricultural and urban land rents affect the timing of development. This study advances our understanding of development decision- making, policy impacts, and urban land-use change modeling and provides an empirical connection between local and global drivers of Greenfield development.     

Urban greening: A new paradox of economic or social sustainability?

Cities globally have incorporated sustainable development into their planning, and led the way in responding to the world’s ecological crisis by “going green”. Urban green space accessibility is considered as the key to urban sustainability progress, not only environmentally, but also economically and socially. However, previous research rarely considers the latter two dimensions together. This study therefore joins the sustainability discussion from a new perspective, in particular the debate concerning the value of urban green spaces and whether and how they contribute to the variegated sustainability agenda? Based on data for 76,595 residential housing units in New York City, measuring the economic gains and equity losses from current urban green space accessibility reveals a paradox in sustainable development where the economic and social benefits of urban green space accessibility are seldom compatible, tending to involve a trade-off of some kind. In response, it is proposed that the spatial patterns of land use can represent a step towards multifaceted aspects of sustainability, with the provision of numerous small green areas that are “affordable and accessible” throughout the city being a more appropriate policy agenda than a few vast parks. Such a policy approach, it is argued, will provide a ‘win-win’ situation in terms of simultaneously contributing to both economic prosperity and the social justice of sustainability. This research also provided evidence for the institutional-driven countries such as China on how to learn from western experiences on planning land use patterns that are sustainable for individuals.     

Exploring the evolution of land tenure and land use change in Panama: Linking land policy with development outcomes

In this paper I discuss the linkages between land use management and land use change, as well as the impacts of land use policies at the local level. Specifically, I suggest the current land tenure regime in Panama is the outcome of a path-dependent process that includes a Spanish legacy of land tenure institutions and beliefs, a policy-making process that responds to immediate or short-term development outcomes, and the broader political economic context. First, I introduce theoretical perspectives on land policy and development. These are followed by a narrative of the evolution of land tenure in Panama, in the context of develoment processes and land policies in Latin America. In the final section, with the case of lifestyle migration to Bocas del Toro, Panama, I illustrate how the pathways between land management and land use, in the context of political economic development drivers and outcomes, have significant local outcomes.     

Land use and climate change in the UK

This paper reviews the relationships between land use and climate change. It explores how land use decisions will be affected by future changes in the climate, but also the feedbacks from land use change to the global climate system through greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. Past changes in land use were characterised by decreasing areas of agricultural use and increasing areas of forested and urbanised land. This has led to UK land use being a net sink for GHGs, mostly due to forestation. However, existing forests have on average passed their age for maximum net removals of carbon from the atmosphere. In the next decade at least, net removals from UK forests are likely to decrease significantly.Longer term scenarios of future land use change are consistent in their expectation of further declines in the agricultural area used for food production – offset to some extent by increased bioenergy cropping – along with increases in forested and urban areas. These trends are broadly consistent with the observed past land use change, but are calculated from various assumptions about future changes in drivers rather than by extrapolation from the past. Socio-economic and technological changes are likely to be the most important drivers for land use, with climate change having a smaller influence. The land use changes represented in these scenarios would likely reduce GHG emissions and enhance carbon sinks. These trends would be reinforced by small future changes in the climate, but large climatic changes are likely to cause net GHG fluxes to switch from being a sink to a source. Land use change will also be moderated by potential policy goals that seek to reduce GHG emissions from land and/or increase the size of land-based sinks. This includes strategies to reduce carbon and nitrogen emissions through increased efficiency, afforestation and biofuel production.     

现代化农区耕地利用形态转型研究

[目的]耕地利用转型是农业发展转型和土地利用转型的重要组成部分。探讨现代化农区耕地利用形态转型的一般特征,可以为区域耕地资源优化配置提供科学依据。[方法]基于GIS平台,结合耕地利用动态度、区域差异指数、耕地景观格局变化表征模型,分析黑龙江省垦区建三江管理局1976~2014年耕地利用形态变化规律。[结果](1)建三江垦区耕地利用可以划分为4种典型形态:耕地散布态、耕地密布态、耕地连布态和耕地满布态,耕地形态转型经历了旱地拓张期(1976~1986年)、水田萌发期(1986~1996年)、水田拓张期(1996~2006年)和旱—水转换期(2006~2014年);(2)旱地拓张期,垦殖率由18.55%猛增至45.96%,旱地占土地总面积比重由18.55%升至44.34%,旱地景观格局集聚度不断提升,水田"零星"镶嵌于研究区内;(3)水田萌发期耕地总量稳中有升,水田面积小幅增加,占耕地面积比重由3.53%提升至6.63%,水田景观破碎度较高;(4)水田拓张期垦殖率基本稳定,新增耕地以水田为主,主要来源于未利用地(沼泽地)、草地、林地的垦殖以及旱地转化,水田种植优势明显增强,景观集聚度升高;(5)旱—水转换期,水田比重由29.48%上升至80.90%,主要表现为耕地内部旱地—水田的转变。水田最大斑块所占景观面积比例骤然上升,水田逐渐占据绝对优势地位,逐渐由"破碎化"转向"聚集化"。(6)气候变暖、地貌适宜、经济效益是该区域耕地利用转型的重要原因,但地形地貌、土壤等自然条件以及发展水平、交通区位等社会经济条件的差异,使得耕地利用转型具有区域差异性。[结论]黑龙江省垦区建三江分局在全球气候变暖和国家粮食安全战略背景下,其耕地利用经历了面积逐渐扩展、结构不断调整的形态转型,其本质是农业生产投入规模和强度的提升。耕地利用形态转型规律可以为区域耕地利用调控提供依据。     

Socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation: A comparison between different land use planning schemes and policy implications

Forest loss and fragmentation, which generate various negative environmental and ecological consequences, have become widespread phenomena across the globe. Motivation to investigate the underlying drivers is essential for land use planning and policy decision making. This paper characterizes forest loss and fragmentation from 1979 to 2014 in the Ningbo region (China) using multitemporal satellite imageries and a set of landscape metrics (area-weighted mean patch area, edge density, area-weighted shape index, Euclidean nearest neighbor distance, effective mesh size and total area); and then quantifies the responsible socioeconomic drivers (economy, social activities, science and technology, culture and policy, demography) under different land use planning schemes (urban and non-urban) using multivariate linear regression. Results show that the two zones present identical trend of intensifying forest loss and fragmentation but differ in changing magnitude and speed. More specifically, forest loss and fragmentation in the non-urban planning zone occurs at a significantly higher pace and magnitude. For the urban planning zone, population pressure, economic growth and fruit consumption are the primary drivers of forest loss, while forest fragmentation is mainly driven by economic openness, cash crop consumption and environmental protection consciousness. For the non-urban planning zone, income increases, fruit consumption and infrastructure development are the primary drivers of forest loss, while infrastructure and tourism development are the major drivers of forest fragmentation. Besides, forest loss and fragmentation in the two zones are both heavily subjected to land use policy. The variance partitioning analysis highlights that the policy driver is the most influential one and economic driver also has strong effect on forest loss and fragmentation in the urban planning zone. For the non-urban planning zone, the influence of policy driver is the strongest and social activity is also very powerful. These results provide compelling evidence that land use planning fails to play an efficient role in protecting forest resources in the Ningbo region. The failure should be attributed to several issues associated with land use planning and forestry governance that widely exist in China. We finally propose some pertinent implications and suggestions for China’s land use planning and forest policy. This study is believed to advance the understanding of the socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation. It therefore provides some new insights in land use policy.     

Implications of land-use change in rural China: A case study of Yucheng,Shandong province

Based on surveys on rural land-use change at village scale in Yucheng City, Shandong province, this paper presents how land-use change takes place in response to inhibitive institutional forces in light of an outmoded land ownership system and unreasonable land use rights administration, and discusses it in the broader social context of industrialization, rural depopulation, a dual-track land market, and land use legislation. Spatial comparison of land use maps interpreted from aerial photographs in different period unveils a decrease in arable land for farming, and an increase in rural settlements, facilities land and unused land. Despite rural depopulation, rural settlements area nearly tripled during 1967–2008. Nearly all newly gained non-agricultural land originated from farmland at the village fringe while formerly facilities land and unused land had been converted to residential use and it was abandoned later. Thus, the destructive farmland conversion from productive use to non-agricultural uses took place at multiple stages. Questionnaire survey of 1650 households in 48 villages in Yucheng City indicated that 41% of the households had multiple dwellings, even though some of them are not occupied or even ruined. This finding may damp the rosy picture of the reportedly slowdown in China's farmland reduction in recent years as these destructive changes are too small to detect from satellite imagery, and it will also provide a practical scientific basis for constituting more strict farmland protection objectives and strategies for China in the near future. In order to hold back the destructive conversion trend from farmland to non-agricultural uses, the authors argue that policy and institution innovation concerning land use and urban–rural development in China needs feature highly in the government's agenda.     

Forest and agricultural land change in the Carpathian region—A meta-analysis of long-term patterns and drivers of change

Humans have altered land cover for centuries, and land-cover change is a main component of global change. Land use transition trajectories, such as the forest transition theory (i.e. switch from deforestation to stable or increasing forest cover), relate long term changes in land use to gradual changes in underlying drivers, such as economic development, demographic change, and urbanization. However, because only few studies examined land change over centuries, it is not clear how land cover changes during very long time-periods which are punctuated by shifts in socio-economics and policies, such as wars. Our goal here was to examine broad land change patterns and processes, and their main driving forces in Central and Eastern Europe during distinct periods of the past 250 years. We conducted a meta-analysis of 66 publications describing 102 case study locations and quantified the main forest and agricultural changes in the Carpathian region since the 18th century. These studies captured gradual changes since the peak of the Austro-Hungarian Empire up to the accession to the European Union of most of the formerly socialist countries in the study region. Agricultural land-use increased during the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 70% of the case studies, but dropped sharply during and especially after the collapse of the Socialism (over 70% of the cases). The highest rates of abandonment occurred between 1990 and 2000. The Carpathian region experienced forest transition during the Interwar period (93% of the cases), and the forest expansion trend persisted after the collapse of Socialism (70% of the cases). In terms of the drivers, institutional and economic factors were most influential in shaping deforestation and agricultural expansion, while socio-demographics and institutional shifts were the key drivers of land abandonment. Our study highlights the drastic effects that socio-economic and institutional changes can have on land-use and land-cover change, and the value of longitudinal studies of land change to uncover these effects.     

Causal chains,policy trade offs and sustainability: Analysing land (mis)use in seven countries in the South

The need to enhance sustainable development of land use is more urgent than ever; specifically in developing countries where poverty and land degradation are often interlinked. To promote a common understanding of land use problems by experts, stakeholders and decision makers, it is essential to understand the system characteristics, including the complex feedbacks between drivers and impacts. To enhance sustainable development, appropriate policies need to be identified. In this paper, we analysed and compared seven case studies in Kenya, Mali, Tunisia, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, representing different biophysical and socio-economic conditions and challenges. We analysed Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) story lines of the land use problems, policy priorities and value trade-offs as identified by stakeholders and experts in National Policy Forums. Important drivers of land use change impacting main land use problems among the case studies were economic growth, technological development, immigration and agricultural intensification, in addition to existing policies. Of the latter the most important were related to domestic support through various forms of subsidies or access to credit, land tenure polices and liberalization policies. In the policy prioritization, the value trade-offs made by the National Policy Forums emphasize the environment rather than increased economic production. It is recognized that the environment needs to be improved to maintain and improve economic production in the long term, both in agriculture and in other sectors.     

Quantifying and understanding land cover changes by large and small oil palm expansion regimes in the Peruvian Amazon

With rapid increases in global food demand and production, oil palm expansion constitutes a major emerging challenge for forest conservation in Amazonia and other tropical forest regions. This threat is evident in the Peruvian Amazon, where local and national incentives for oil palm cultivation along with growing large-scale investments translate into accelerated oil palm expansion. Environmental sustainability of oil palm cultivation in the Peruvian Amazon is contingent on policy incentives for expansion onto already-cleared lands instead of biodiverse, high carbon primary rainforests. Previous research indicates that while industrial plantations use less land area than local smallholders, companies have a higher tendency to expand into primary rainforests. However, the motivations behind these differing expansion scenarios remain unclear. In this study we combine data from optical and radar satellite sensors with training information, field discussions, and review of public documents to examine the policy incentives and spatial patterns associated with oil palm expansion by smallholders and industries in one of Peru’s most rapidly changing Amazonian landscapes: the Ucayali region of the city of Pucallpa. Based on our satellite-based land cover change analysis, we found that between 2010 and 2016, smallholders utilized 21,070 ha more land area for oil palm than industries but industrial expansion occurred predominantly in old growth forests (70%) in contrast to degraded lands for smallholders (56%). Our analysis of national policies related to oil palm expansion reveal policy loopholes associated with Peru’s “best land use” classification system that allow for standing forests to undergo large-scale agricultural development with little government oversight. We conclude that both sectors will need careful, real-time monitoring and government engagement to reduce old-growth forest loss and develop successful strategies for mitigating future environmental impacts of oil palm expansion.     

Modeling climate change and agriculture: an introduction to the special issue

This issue of Agricultural Economics is a special issue containing articles on model performance in assessing the effects of climate change, bioenergy policy, and socioeconomics on agriculture. The contributions present results from a global economic model intercomparison activity undertaken as part of the AgMIP Project ( www.agmip.org ). The origins of the comparison activities can be traced to a project that was organized by the OECD in late 2010 to compare results from three models. The current phase of the research includes 10 models and was designed in part to support of the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). The special issue includes seven peer‐reviewed articles that present thematic results from a range of modeling strategies, with partial and general equilibrium modeling as a high level distinction but a myriad of differences within these two model types. A central common element is harmonization on biophysical effects using crop models and socioeconomic effects using drivers from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways developed as part of the AR5 process. The special issue provides broad insights into how the modeling communities approached the interactions of climate, socioeconomics, bioenergy policy on agricultural outcomes, including land use, prices, consumption, and production.     

Modeling the drivers of urban land use changes in Lusaka,Zambia using multi-criteria evaluation: An analytic network process approach

Curbing the historically unplanned urban development in African cities crucially demands that the drivers of urban land use (urban-LU) changes are comprehended. However, this has become a complex decision problem for African urban planners and policy makers owing to the interconnections among urban-LU drivers and the complicated mixed development of planned and unplanned areas. Therefore, this study presents a new framework to model drivers of urban-LU changes in Lusaka, Zambia for the last 50 years using ground questionnaire surveys and the analytic network process (ANP). The study considers the growth of six urban-LUs, namely, unplanned high density residential (UHDR), unplanned low density residential (ULDR); planned medium-high density residential (PMHDR), planned low density residential (PLDR), commercial and industrial (CMI); and public institutions and service (PIS). The results revealed that socio-economic (55.11 %) and population (27.37 %) factors have been the major drivers of urban-LU changes while political factors (13.07 %) have also played a role. The role of biophysical factors (4.44 %) has been insignificant. The ANP model ranks UHDR (1st) and CMI (2nd) areas as the fastest-growing primarily driven by interactions amongst migration, economic opportunities, social services and land market. The growth of PMHDR, PIS and PLDR areas, ranked 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively, has been largely driven by plans and policies and the political situation. The growth of ULDR areas is ranked (6th) as the lowest. The study discusses the urban planning and land use policy implications and suggests several strategies including strengthening of the local planning authority; improvement of the land tenure policies and delivery systems; establishment of satellite economic zones to decongest the city; investment in both green and blue infrastructure; and timely policy reviews.     

Tidal river management for sustainable agriculture in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta: Implication for land use policy

The tidal river management (TRM) approach is an indigenous management practice in the Southwest part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh. This approach has a high potential for extending area under agriculture with a positive impact on sustainable production and consequently on sustainable land use planning. Until recently, no studies provide a quantitative assessment on agricultural benefits of TRM operation. In this study, we aim to assess the benefits of TRM operation by using innovative approaches such as comparing land use change, agricultural production and economic cost-benefit analysis for two scenarios (with and without TRM) in the Hari-Teka-Bhadra catchment. We found that the financial benefit of TRM operation was 85.5 million US dollar per year from the agriculture sector. The results are useful for promoting land use policy through TRM approach in achieving greater sustainability in the area.     

Modeling the effects of tourism and land regulation on land-use change in tourist regions: A case study of the Lijiang River Basin in Guilin,China

To a large extent, tourism development triggers an economic boost in certain regions. However, given its complex and dynamic forms of land use, tourism development also causes changes to land-use demands and patterns in tourist regions, which directly and indirectly interfere with local environments. The development of tourist regions must achieve a series of trade-offs to meet sustainability goals. This paper discusses the effects of tourism on land-use change and how land regulation policies integrate tourism development with land use. We employed a system dynamic-cellular automata hybrid model using the Lijiang River Basin as an example to translate tourism-affected land dynamics into spatial distributions and project their likely future changes under various development scenarios. We determined three major outcomes. (1) Tourism development causes a quantitatively increasing demand for construction land. With effective spatial regulations, the expansion of construction land does not necessarily suggest the loss of eco-land; rather, land-use pressures accordingly shift to cropland. Under these circumstances, land regulation policies help to balance land demand and optimize land-use patterns. (2) Tourism development causes a continuous spatial interference with landscapes. Land regulation policies have the positive and active effect of ignoring this interference rather than counteracting it. (3) The strict implementation of land regulation policies does not necessarily improve land-use patterns. Flexible policies achieve a better balanced land-use pattern than a combination of individual strict policies. However, the former cannot reduce as much vulnerability as the latter. Hence, policy assembly represents a trade-off with regards to balancing land demands, and it should vary based on regional land-use patterns and targets.     

Private property and Mennonites are major drivers of forest cover loss in central Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

The role of land tenure and Mennonites as drivers of deforestation in the Central Yucatan Peninsula has not been empirically assessed. We evaluate different drivers and their relationship to forest cover change between 1986 and 2015 and assess how land tenure and Mennonite communities impact forest cover loss in the Municipality of Hopelchen, Campeche, Mexico. This study shows that forest cover loss has increased in the last decade (2005–2015), and that land tenure regime type is associated with this loss. Throughout the study period, statistical comparisons show rates of forest cover loss were significantly higher in private and federal property compared to forests in ejidos (communal property). Forest cover loss in Mennonite private property was also significantly higher than in non-Mennonite owned private property. The role of land tenure and the expansion of the agroindustrial production model as major drivers of forest cover loss in the region provide important insight into developing municipal land use plans and conservation strategies to reduce deforestation. Programs, incentives and policy directed towards forest conservation in the region that typically target ejido communities, will need to consider the growing trend of private property expansion within federal lands and work more closely with private property owners including Mennonite communities if deforestation reduction programs are to be successful.     

Effects of food consumption patterns on paddy field use in Taiwan

Societal metabolism and land use are significant and interrelated issues, and play a role in sustainable development. How a society's metabolism relates to local land use is typically affected by the particular context of the society under study, which is usually shaped by many factors, including economic, ecological, cultural, technological, and political factors. This study examines the effects of changes in food consumption patterns – decreasing per capita consumption of rice and increasing per capita consumption of wheat flour and meat – on the use of paddy fields in Taiwan. Although rice is grown domestically, wheat, which is a substitute for rice, is mainly imported. Moreover, the domestic livestock industry depends heavily on imported crops for low-cost feed. Accordingly, dietary changes have significantly decreased the demand for local paddy fields to grow crops. Additionally, the diversion of paddy fields to grow forage crops, which has been promoted by the Taiwanese government by guaranteeing prices for feed maize for 14 years, was discouraged when Taiwan joined the World Trade Organization in 2002, as Taiwan was required at that time to reduce by 20% its aggregate measure of support. The presented Taiwan case provides an empirical example of how a change in input characteristics (supply sources in a spatial dimension) of societal metabolism can, together with other factors, significantly affect local paddy fields, and discusses the underlying implications for sustainable development.     

鄂东南丘陵地区土地利用变化及驱动力研究——以崇阳县为例

利用1996-2005年土地利用统计和社会经济统计数据,运用数理统计分析方法,选取土地利用动态变化相关模型,对鄂东南丘陵地区崇阳县的土地利用变化及其驱动力进行了分析;结果表明,土地利用结构发生了明显变化,土地利用变化速度较快,土地利用程度较高,土地利用处于调整期;人类活动对景观格局有较为明显的影响;人口、经济发展和政策是崇阳县土地利用变化的主要驱动因素。     

Integrated assessment of cropping patterns under different policy scenarios in Quzhou County,North China Plain

Agricultural land use is affected by government policies and leads to different consequences of regional sustainability. In this work, changes in cropping patterns including acreage, cropping locations and management-related environmental impacts were simulated under various policy scenarios for Quzhou County, China. This county is in China's major agricultural region, the North China Plain. Four dominant crop systems were categorized (winter wheat/summer maize, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize, cotton, and vegetables) and analyzed, following two alternative policy scenarios that either prioritized government funding to subsidize crop production (“subsidy” scenario) or promoted advanced irrigation techniques (“technique” scenario). Input–output coefficients for all four crop systems were determined, mainly irrigation demand, yield, and price of produce, but other factors like a limited area of arable land and scarce regional water resources were also considered. For the simulation, a LINDO Inc. system was linked with the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model. Temporal changes of crop systems were simulated with the LINDO system, whereas spatial dynamics of cropping patterns were simulated with the CLUE model, based on land suitability maps. The results show that crop patterns changed variably with time under the two scenarios, and water availability was the primary constraint on sustainability of land use. Under the subsidy scenario, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize became dominant across the entire county, replacing other crop systems. In contrast, the vegetable system gradually occupied farmland surrounding the township under the technique scenario. The different policies produced opposite consequences for regional sustainability. Although a “subsidy” policy contributed to farmers’ income, it did not encourage water conservation for sustainable crop production, leading to land abandonment because of water shortage. In contrast, the “technique” policy partially cut direct financial benefits to farmers, but promoted water conservation and made a substantial contribution to agricultural sustainability.     

Land-use changes and policy dimension driving forces in China: Present,trend and future

China has extremely scarce land resources compared to the world average. There is an urgent need for studies of the current situation and the trends in land-use change and assessment of the performance of land policies in China. Assessment of land-use change has long been hindered by a lack of accurate and reliable data. This paper uses the data obtained from the national land surveys of 1996 and land-use change surveys from 1997 to 2008, to analyze changes in land use and the policy dimension driving forces related to the changes, especially cultivated land, forestry land, grassland, as well as developed land. The aim of this analysis will be to derive the physical, social and economical driving forces of those changes to grasp the trends in land-use change and the effects of land policies and to formulate strategies for the protection and sustainable use of agricultural land. The results indicate that, although the overall change in land use was not large, cultivated land was significantly reduced and developed land rapidly increased. A great deal of high quality cultivated land was changed to developed land and low quality cultivated land generated from unused land, which has resulted in a serious threat to food supplies in China. Predictions using the methods of linear extrapolation and a BP neural network indicate that it is impossible to keep to a target of 0.12 billion hectares of cultivated land in the future under the mode of economic development used between 1996 and 2008. The results also indicate that the implementation of the laws and regulations about controlling the developed land and preserving cultivated land had significant effects on changes in land use, especially cultivated land and developed land. The results suggest that the changes in land use are closely related to economic fluctuation and the enaction and implementation of these land policies had a little time lag for cultivated land protection. There is a pressing need for China to use its limited land resources more efficiently and effectively by enacting or re-enforcing the laws and regulations on land resources protection and economic development, not only for its own growing population, but also the world. Therefore, we must formulate strategies for the protection and sustainable use of agricultural land.     

Assessing urban growth and rural land use transformations in a cross-border situation in Northern Namibia and Southern Angola

The Okavango catchment is a hot spot of accelerating land use change. In particular, climate predictions, demographic developments and a growing utilization of ecosystem services and functions are expected to increase pressure on resources and land. Land use conflicts, the sustenance of precarious livelihoods, deforestation of woodland savannahs, upstream–downstream water issues and human–wildlife conflicts are among the processes that are characteristic of policy and management challenges in the region. In the Eastern and Western Kavango regions of Namibia and the Cuando-Cubango province of Angola, a unique cross-border situation exists that allows assessing how the combination of local traditions, regional land management and national policies determines spatial patterns of land use and land cover transformation processes.To map major land use types and change processes we used a set of multi-temporal Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ data sets, support vector machine (SVM) classification and iterative spectral mixture analysis (ISMA) on images covering the period from 1990 to 2010. Integrating satellite imagery with literature reviews, interviews, census and household survey data, we assessed the contrasting development of resource utilization on both sides of the Okavango River. We investigated if and how policies and regulations at different levels drive land use decisions, and how these decisions manifest spatially.We found a strong and interconnected urban growth on both sides of the river. The area around Rundu has constantly been evolving to become Namibia's second largest city, also functioning as a hub of development and transborder commerce with opposing Calai. This trend was found to affect adjacent settlement areas and cause widespread conversion of woodland savannahs to agricultural land or their utilization for timber extraction. The conversion of woodland savannah to arable land was by far the dominant land use change process on both sides of the river, with a total conversion area of 460 km² (Namibia) and 293 km² (Angola) observed during the observation period. Strong spatial change gradients occurred in relation to determining factors, such as accessibility, proximity to water, urban centres, etc., while relations to settlements where less obvious. Assessing results by country illustrated the difference in land use intensity and resource consumption between Angola and Namibia, which relate directly to historical developments, with a long period of stability in Namibia standing opposed to the recent and ongoing recovery from civil war in Angola. These are added to by statutory and traditional policy frameworks, the national endowment with natural capital (e.g. oil, uranium, diamonds, zinc) and the integration into global markets, which strongly affects national economies of both countries at large.Underlying land use decisions were found to be largely driven by individualized perspectives on growth ideologies, consumerism and wealth-aspirations connected to globalization processes. However, at present the result of these perspectives is still mainly a small-structured conversion to rainfed agriculture as a component of subsistence strategies of local livelihoods, and thus stands opposed to other regions of the world, where change processes are much more driven by large companies or follow national regulations and result in more intensive uses.