On the Effectiveness of Capital Gains tax as a Stabilizer of Real Estate Prices

This paper examines the effectiveness of capital gains tax as a stabilizer of real estate prices. Capital gains tax is shown to induce long-term holdings of real estate through a tax deferral effects and hence negate the intended effect. Furthermore, it is shown that a change in the tax rate may stabilize the price only temporarily without any lasting effect on the speculative holdings of real estate. Of course the presence of property tax, for example, may affect speculative activities differently—a subject into which this paper does not delve. [323]     

外部环境因素对房地产行业资本结构的影响

以资产负债率较高的房地产行业作为研究样本,深入探讨了房地产行业特征因素、行业环境因素和宏观经济环境因素对资本结构的影响。研究结果表明,我国房地产行业的资本结构基本符合最优融资顺序理论,房地产行业的盈利水平可以解释资本结构的61．15％,但解释程度远低于工业行业。造成这种差异的原因是由于房地产行业资产负债率比工业行业高,对外部环境的变化更加敏感。实证结果表明,众多外部环境因素对房地产行业资本结构有重要影响,用行业利润和行业投资者行业特征指标、房屋销售价格指数和土地交易价格指数行业环境指标以及国内生产总值指数、贷款利率和货币供应量宏观环境指标,共计7个指标,能解释房地产行业的资产负债率的99．52％。     

房地产税、市场结构与房价

本文在住房流量模型的基础上,构建了一个购房者和开发商的住房市场局部均衡模型,考察了完全垄断和完全竞争情形下房地产税与房价之间的关系。结果表明,无论何种市场结构,提高房地产税均导致房价下降;住房市场垄断性越强,房价越高,房地产税对房价影响越大。笔者对1996-2008年中国33个大中城市数据的检验发现,市场结构对房价影响大于房地产税。房地产税增长率每增加1%,房价增长率将减少0.03%;勒纳指数每增加1%,房价增长率将增加0.16%。房地产税与市场结构相互作用将使房价上涨,但影响微不足道。因此,对住宅开征房地产税,将对房价上涨有一定限制作用,但不能有效抑制房价上涨,而增强住宅市场竞争性、降低开发商垄断具有显著效果。     

境外热钱对中国房地产市场的影响

中国房地产市场的火热与人民币升值预期吸引了大量的境外热钱流入中国房地产行业,并推动了房地产价格的快速上涨,加剧了房地产泡沫的膨胀。针对外资在房地产市场的炒作行为,抑制境外热线对房地产的投机,可以取消外资投资房地产行业的税收优惠,废除外资企业的超国民待遇。     

房地产市场过热与国家宏观调控政策

近年来,我国房地产业出现了快速发展的过热现象,其原因复杂。2004年我国开始有针对性地对房地产行业进行宏观调控。本文试图对中国房地产行业过热现象进行分析,详细介绍房地产市场宏观调控的系统,并由国家对房价调控入手,从土地政策、金融政策、税收政策3个方面对我国房地产宏观调控进行反思。     

房地产税渐进改革路径*——基于税制要素设计的实证研究

在保持房地产市场平稳的前提下，使房地产税成为地方重要税种是中国房地产税改革的重要政策目标，但在高房价收入比背景下，这二者相互冲突。本文基于房地产税制要素设计和微观家庭数据测算，探讨中国房地产税的渐进改革路径及其影响，认为鉴于居民纳税能力受高房价收入比限制，房地产税可从低税率、高减免起步；伴随房价收入比收敛，逐步提高税率、降低减免。起步阶段，税制改革应重视居民纳税能力和纳税意愿，优先实现房地产市场平稳软着陆；在中长期，房地产税可逐步成为地方政府主体税种，起到完善税制和地方税体系、提升地方治理能力的作用。     

开征累进物业税的战略构想

地价过快上涨和投机需求旺盛是造成房价不合理上涨的两个重要原因。在城乡同时开征累进物业税可以解决上述问题。累进物业税的开征对象包括城市住宅、城市已出让土地及农村住宅。在城乡共同开征物业税的基础上,将物业税归为地方税种,在中央和地方之间重新分配土地出让金,弱化地方抬高地价的内在冲动。     

Taxation for the 21st century: the automated payment transaction (APT) tax

This paper examines the desirability and feasibility of replacing the present system of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive revenue neutral Automated Payment Transaction (APT) tax. In its simplest form, the APT tax consists of a flat tax levied on all transactions. The tax is automatically assessed and collected when transactions are settled through the electronic technology of the banking/payments system. The APT tax introduces progressivity through the tax base since the volume of final payments includes exchanges of titles to property and is therefore more highly skewed than the conventional income or consumption tax base. The wealthy carry out a disproportionate share of total transactions and therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the tax despite its flat rate structure. The automated recording of all APT tax payments by firms and individuals eliminates the need to file tax and information returns and creates a degree of transparency and perceived fairness that induces greater tax compliance. Also, the tax has lower administrative and compliance cost. Like all taxes, the APT tax creates new distortions whose costs must be weighted against the benefits obtained by replacing the current tax system.     

房地产价格与房地产投资来源结构

近几年来,大量外资以及民间资本纷纷进入我国房地产业,而与此同时我国部分地区房地产价格出现了不合理上涨,为了探讨房地产投资来源结构与房地产价格之间的关系,本文运用1999年房地产投资以及销售的数据建立了二者之间的模型,回归结果表明:外资以及民间资本对我国这轮房地产价格的上涨起着重要的推进作用;国内贷款对房地产价格的上涨影响不大;债券投资对房地产的价格会产生抑制作用.     

住房空置率对住宅价格的影响分析

住房空置率一直是房地产业所关注的问题,在对住房空置率进行学术界定和对我国现阶段住房空置率实际状况进行分析的基础上,结合交易价格对均衡价格的换算理论,对住房空置率与房地产价格的影响进行量化分析,提出政府可通过完善房地产市场信息披露制度、完善土地供应机制和引导房地产业的投资结构,企业提高开发质量来控制住房空置率。     

Taxation and the stock market valuation of capital gains and dividends: Theory and emphirical results

Dividends seem to be more heavily taxed than capital gains. Why then do corporations pay dividends rather than repurchasing shares or retaining earnings? Either corporations are not acting in the interests of shareholders, or else shareholders desire dividends sufficiently for nontax reasons to offset the tax effect.In this paper, we measure the relative valuation of dividends and capital gains in the stock market, using a variant of the capital asset pricing model. We find that dividends are not valued differently systematically from capital gains. This finding is consistent with share price maximization by firms but inconsistent with the fact that most shareholderspay a heavier tax on dividends.We also show that the relative value of dividends provides an indirect measure of a marginal Tobin's q. The measured value of dividends relative to capital gains tends to be higher during prosperous periods, as is consistent with this interpretation. We hope that this time series on a marginal Tobin's q will prove to be useful in forecasting the rate of investment.     

物业税可行吗？

物业税作为一种财产税，具有其自身的特征。未来我国在物业税的设计过程中需要考虑多种因素，规避相关风险，否则很可能使得现在的高房价变成未来的高额物业税。     

优化房地产上市资本结构质量之管见

房地产业是高风险的资本密集型行业,房地产企业的资金来源和资本结构直接影响和制约着房地产企业的稳健经营以及房地产业健康发展。本文以房地产上市公司为侧重,分析我国房地产企业资本结构现状及特征,并对改善房地产企业资本结构提出相关建议。     

Choosing between gifts and bequests: How taxes affect the timing of wealth transfers

A number of theories have been advanced to explain the size and timing of intergenerational transfers. One factor only recently explored is the effects of taxes, and in particular the estate tax, on such transfers. This paper represents the first attempt to explore how capital gains and gift taxes, in addition to the estate tax, interact to influence incentives in the timing of transfers. Using estate tax data and exploiting variations in state inheritance, gift, and capital gains tax rates, this paper finds taxes to be an important consideration in the choice between gifts and bequests. In particular, each of capital gains and gift taxes are found to be important determinants of the timing of transfers. These findings are robust to a number of specifications that control for borrowing, charitable bequests, marital status, and the portfolio composition of wealth transfers.     

ACCRUED CAPITAL GAINS, PERSONAL INCOME AND SAVING IN THE UNITED STATES, 1948–1964

Capital gains are an important source of personal income in the United States but they are not included in the national accounts or the official estimate of personal income and saving. Individuals report their realized gains for tax purposes but the economic theorist would include both realized and accrued gains in income. National income theorists continue to debate whether capital gains should be included in income but, because of the many conceptual and statistical problems involved in estimating capital gains, no satisfactory estimates have been developed. Consequently, the debate has stayed mainly at the theoretical level. This paper deals with the methodology of estimating accrued capital gains. A simple analytical model is developed to estimate capital gains from data on market value and net acquisitions of an asset but the model can be adapted to incorporate asset prices directly. It is shown that the methods used for estimating accrued gains in the past are special cases of the model proposed in the paper. The model is then used for estimating gains accruing to individuals in the United States on their holdings of corporate stock, real estate and livestock during 1948–1964.
During this period accrued gains have amounted to roughly five times the realized gains reported for tax purposes; corporate stock and real estate are the most important sources of capital gains and corporate stock accounts for almost two-thirds of all accrued gains. The paper goes on to examine the implications of these estimates for the existing series on personal income and saving in the United States. The inclusion of accrued gains would increase the variance in the official estimates but personal saving is affected more than personal income. The paper concludes with an evaluation of these results and some suggestions for further research.     

我国房地产市场的调整及“救市”建议

2008年中国房地产业在经历了"高投资、高房价、高利润和高税收"之后,开始步入调整期.此次调整既有诸多不可控的外部因素,也有行业自身的原因.认真分析房地产市场周期调整的成因,因地制宜出台审慎、灵活、富有弹性的调控政策,并借市场调整之机优化结构、强化相关制度建设,是中国应对美国金融危机引发全球经济衰退的理性选择.也是中国房地产市场走向成熟及持续健康发展的关键.     

财政收入最大化与地方政府地价竞争

本文借鉴制度经济学研究方法,将中央政府的若干治理手段嵌入到地方政府地价决定函数中,对财政收入最大化与地方政府地价竞争的治理策略做比较制度分析。本文认为,地方政府在地价决定中具有产业间边际财政总收入均等化的动机,适度提高农地征收价格以及服务业税负,有助于压缩地方政府的恶性竞争空间。产业性税收优惠政策可能只对那些租赁而不是持有地产的经营者才有效,可以考虑适度增加住宅所有者的税负来实现“增税降费”的财政收入结构调整,同时继续维持对营业场所以租赁为主的知识密集型服务业的税收优惠。     

房地产价格与国民收入分配的互动关系——基于联立方程模型的实证研究

本文基于省级面板数据,运用联立方程模型(SEM)和两阶段最小二乘(TSLS)估计法研究发现,房价与国民收入分配中的资本收入份额存在相互作用关系。房价上涨1%会使资本收入份额提升0.16%到0.43%,资本收入份额上升1%则会推动房价上涨约0.39%到0.54%。不过,这种相互作用机制存在一定的区域异质性,即在东部地区资本收入份额的提高会显著推高房价,而中西部地区后者对前者的影响效应更为明显。要实现房地产市场的健康成长,离不开国民收入分配结构的调整优化,而鼓励对适合我国劳动力比较优势的实体经济进行投资、减少资本对房地产的投机炒作,将有助于促进国民收入分配中劳动收入份额的提升。     

我国房地产税与房价关系的实证研究

本文以我国1988--2006年房地产税和房价的相关数据为基础,通过协整分析、向量自回归、误差修正和Granger因果检验,研究了我国房地产税对房价的短期影响及两者的长期关系。结论如下：我国房地产税和房价之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,房价和房地产税存在正相关关系,调高房地产税会引起房价增长;在不考虑地方公共支出对房价影响的情况下,房地产税的长期影响效应要大于短期影响效应;我国房地产税制设置欠完善,房地产税的变化会影响房价,而房价的变化不会影响房地产税。最后,本文提出,应对现行的房地产税收制度进行改革,减少房地产流通环节的税种和税负,开征物业税。     

房价结构调整与经济结构转型

目前,我国住宅房地产价格明显偏离正常值。对房价结构的分析表明,房价结构中33.86%的资金流向了政府。经过房价结构这一隐秘机制的运行,本来属于居民消费领域的购房资金被转变为政府投资资本,导致经济结构中投资与消费之间的比例失衡。这与我国加快经济结构调整,增加消费在促进经济增长中的比重相悖。为应对上述情况,加快优化房价结构是促进经济结构转型的有力举措。