商业地产投资的实物期权特性及应用框架研究

商业地产开发投资中存在投资的不可逆性、外部环境的不确定性和决策的灵活性，因而具有实物期权特性。从确定要解决的问题、分析不确定性的来源、鉴别关键的不确定性因素、识别实物期权类型、构建期权定价模型、计算项目价值、检查计算结果和重新设计8个方面，构建了商业地产投资决策的实物期权分析框架。     

包含多重复合实物期权的风险项目价值研究

实物期权估值方法能反映风险项目的机会价值和高度不确定性,但实际风险项目往往包含多个、多期的期权,各期权相互影响,不能简单相加,因而难以应用.文章通过蒙特卡罗模拟,实证研究了当风险项目包含复合多重实物期权时,其估值的一般方法.分析了包含一个扩张期权、一个复合交换型期权和一个普通复合期权的风险项目灵活性价值,并讨论了期权的相互作用和期权价值对变量的敏感性.     

规制政策不确定性对电网投资影响的实物期权分析

根据电网规制政策变动的特点.利用实物期权方法分析了规制政策的不确定性对电网投资的影响.模型及算例结果表明,在政策确定的情形下,规制机构的成本补偿政策能够促进电网企业投资,而补偿政策变动的不确定性则会提高投资的临界值.并且,随着补偿政策变动概率与价格(或者企业利润)的相关系数的提高,投资临界值也将提高.     

客户性质新解与客户内部化

本文提出并论证了以下观点:客户是企业关系营销发展的产物,具有外部环境要素和内部组织要素的双重模糊属性;目前,企业对客户的组织要素属性认识和利用得不够,企业内存在着客户缺失、错位和非组织化的问题;解决这一问题的途径是利用客户的组织属性来实行客户内部化,其初级形式和支持条件是客户DIY和柔性产品模型;企业自觉主动地实行客户内部化,对发掘客户潜在价值等具有多方面的的理论意义和实用价值。     

战略投资决策中实物期权与情景分析的整合研究

随着市场经济的发展,企业面临着愈来愈多的不确定性,如何利用这些不确定性进行战略投资,就成为企业成败的关键。文章针对实物期权、情景分析两种方法的特点,将他们整合在一起来分析投资决策,形成一个可以指导企业进行战略投资决策的总体方法。     

实物期权整合模型在石油勘探开发项目中的应用

基于决策树和二叉树的整合模型是目前比较可行的一种实物期权定价方法。该方法把影响项目经济价值的所有不确定性分为两类——市场不确定性和技术不确定性。本文利用该方法对一个位于阿塞拜疆的实际石油项目进行了评价,识别出了对项目经济性具有较大影响的5个不确定性因素（输入变量）：油价、投产初期产量（Initial Production Rate）、递减率（Decline Rate）、总投资（CAPEX）和操作成本（Variable Cost）。通过分析,该项目可能存在多种实物期权。利用该整合模型并应用DPL软件建模估算了这一石油项目的扩张期权、放弃期权和复合期权的价值。     

面向环境的战略重构

在以环境为视角的主流战略管理理论中,都认为战略应该与环境相匹配。但是,适应环境的战略观存在许多缺陷。企业的环境总存在一定的不确定性,而这种不确定性可以经过企业的改造转化为企业的竞争优势,并且使某些战略具有期权价值。因此,需要抛弃传统的战略制定思维,依据环境的不确定性重新构筑企业战略。通过相应的战略手段,企业可以塑造环境、改变环境、适应环境以及追随环境来实现企业的目标。     

多寡头不确定条件下的矿山企业期权博弈基本价值研究

期权博弈方法把实物期权和博弈论结合起来,在不确定性条件和竞争环境下,为企业提供项目的投资估价和决策,以实现投资项目价值的最大化。竞争环境下的矿山企业博弈参与方不再局限于对称双寡头,而是考虑了序贯均衡阶段的多寡头矿山企业,在进行项目投资决策时,可假设投资初期成本各不相同,建立多寡头矿山企业期权博弈基本价值的价值函数和最佳投资时机进行研究。     

Real Option for Urban Rapid Rail Transit PPP Project

根据北京地铁4号线PPP项目遇到的实际问题构建模型,将实物期权理论引入解决车站停车场建设规模决策的问题.通过设计Excel表计算引入实物期权后不同方案的期望NPV,既解决了一般期权定价困难的问题,又将期权理论与PPP项目紧密结合,发现实物期权对于PPP项目决策过程的优化起到了非常明显的作用.特别是处理不确定性给PPP项目的谈判、决策、执行过程造成困难时,实物期权能够发挥更大的作用,可以作为决策者改善决策合理性的手段,也可以为公私双方化解核心矛盾取得一致意见提供有效帮助.     

期权激励的机理分析与变通设计

企业期权激励方式被认为是一种比较有效的激励办法。企业管理的实践也证明了股票期权激励使得经营者收入与企业业绩有了更大的相关性。因而我们对非上市的国有企业也推出了期权激励的变通办法——所谓的期股激励。但是 ,期股激励的侧重方向可能是值得商榷的。期权激励之所以有效 ,原因并不完全在于期权激励的长期性和抵押性。期权激励的短期性和可变现性也发挥了极其重要 ,甚至是更为重要的作用。当我们更关注于激励的长期性和抵押性 ,从而推出了期股激励时 ,外国企业的期权激励已经出现了从长期转变为短期 ,从抵押性转变为非抵押性的趋向 ,…     

Product and Process Modularity's Effects on Manufacturing Agility and Firm Growth Performance

Modularity in product design has been hailed as a way to speed new product development (NPD), to reduce NPD cost, and to enhance customization possibilities for consumers. Modularity in process design may speed new product manufacturing setup times, reduce costs, and enhance the profitability of the lower volumes that customization often entails. However, empirical evidence is scarce that either product or process modularity—individually, jointly, or sequentially—actually produce these or other proposed benefits (e.g., performance growth). This study builds on general modular systems theory (GMST) by examining the theoretical relationship between product and process modularity and the effects of each on firm growth performance. Using structural equation modeling, partial versus complete mediation by manufacturing agility is also scrutinized. In one pair of models, product modularity and process modularity are separate direct antecedents to manufacturing agility, which is modeled to affect firm growth performance; in a second pair of models, product and process modularity are related antecedents to manufacturing agility, with product modularity preceding process modularity. Results from the best‐fitting model show that product modularity directly and positively affects process modularity, manufacturing agility, and firm growth performance. Process modularity was unrelated to manufacturing agility, and neither process modularity nor manufacturing agility predicted growth performance. Consistent with GMST, the study provides empirical evidence of the power of one element of a modular system to orchestrate a fit between a firm's product and manufacturing strategies and to directly drive system performance. Thus, modularity in product design is revealed as the key to understanding GMST effects concerning how changes in one system generate changes in other systems.     

Linking product modularity and innovativeness to supply chain management in the Italian furniture industry

Much of the literature on modularity assumes that firms with modular products adopt modular organization. In the realm of supply chain management, no consensus has been reached on the effects of product modularity on supply chains (SC). This paper investigates whether SC choices depend on product modularity and innovativeness, and how SC choices can be aligned to these product features to maximize performance. A medium scale survey has been performed in the Italian furniture industry. By means of factor and cluster analyses, the SC of firms that introduced products with different levels of modularity and innovativeness have been compared. The results show that both product features must be considered when designing the SC.     

Assessing performance of utilizing organizational modularity to manage supply chains: Evidence in the US manufacturing sector

Recent competition and customization have motivated manufacturers to institute modular organizations to manage supply chains. Proclaimed as a paradigm shift, organizational modularity manifests agility and flexibility to diversify product offerings, utilize production capacity, and allocate network capital and assets. Whereas studies have conceptualized the impacts of modular organizations, large-scale research that examines modularity's impacts on performance are lacking. The study assesses the impacts of organizational modularity in the US manufacturing sector. A set of hypotheses proposes that higher level of modularity is associated with higher efficiency and profitability. I found modularity to negatively affect product specialization and positively impact capacity utilization, ROI and ROA. The findings help to determine the robustness of utilizing the modularity for complex supply chain coordination.     

When the mirror gets misted up: Modularity and technological change

This study investigates how component technological change affects the relationship between product modularity and organizational modularity (the across‐firm mirroring hypothesis). Studying the air conditioning industry, we show that the across‐firm mirroring hypothesis does not hold for technologically dynamic components and the associated supply relationships. In this case, the mirror gets “misted up” with buyers and suppliers having recourse to information sharing even in the presence of highly modular components. Our study contributes to the debate on the organizational implications of modularity and its ramifications for the theory of the firm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modularity,strategic flexibility,and firm performance: a study of the home appliance industry

Recent theorizing has proposed that modular product and process architectures are key enablers of strategic flexibility. We formulated an integrative conceptual model encompassing antecedents, contributing factors, and outcomes of modularity. We then tested this model on data from managers in U.S. and U.K. home appliance companies using structural equations modeling. The results indicate a positive relationship between modular product architectures and performance, with product model variety as a mediating variable. The results also highlight linkages between perceptions of market context and the use of modular products architectures, and between complementary organizational capabilities and firm performance. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do modular products lead to modular organizations?

The tacit assumption that increased product modularity is associated with advantageous increases in organizational modularity underlies much of the literature on modularity. Previous empirical investigations of this assumption, few in number, have faced numerous confounding factors and generated conflicting results. I build a causal model for the relationship between product and organizational modularity, which I test using a distinctive empirical setting that controls for confounding factors present in previous studies. I find support for only part of the assumed relationship, showing that modularity is a more multifaceted concept than previously recognized. In particular, increased product modularity enhances reconfigurability of organizations more quickly than it allows firms to move activities out of hierarchy. The paper contributes to the emerging stream of research that focuses on the previously underappreciated costs of designing and maintaining a modular organization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大型企业的模块化:内容、意义与方法

本文认为，业务、能力要素和组织结构的模块化是今天大型企业组织的变革之道。本文对大型企业组织形态的演进历史进行了考察，分析了大型企业组织模块化内容，探索了模块化组织和模块化簇群的意义，认为模块化对我国大型企业集团的发展与变革是有借鉴意义的。     

模块化时代企业边界变动研究

以往研究大多基于定性分析和案例分析来研究模块化对企业边界变动的影响．较少见到运用数理模型的分析。本文在分析模块化时代企业边界的性质、企业边界变动的方式和原因的基础上，建立了企业模块化的数学模型，并运用成本曲线法对模块的分解与整合、替代、去除、增加等模块化操作做了解释。结论认为，在模块化时代，企业边界变动的卖质是围绕企业核心能力模块进行的一系列模块化操作。     

Capturing the Degree of Modularity Embedded in Product Architectures*

This article focuses on integrating various perspectives on product architecture modularity into a general framework and proposes a way to measure the degree of modularization embedded in product architectures. The article addresses trade‐offs between modular and integral product architectures and how components and interfaces influence the degree of modularization. The article identifies the following key elements of product architecture modularity: components (standard and new‐to‐the‐firm), interfaces (standardization and specification), degree of coupling, and substitutability. A mathematical model, termed the modularization function, is applied to measure the key elements and their combined effect on the degree of modularization embedded in product architectures. The application of the modularization function is illustrated by two distinct sets of product architectures: Chrysler Jeep's windshield wipers controllers and Schindler's hydraulic and traction‐pull transmission elevators. The analysis of the Chrysler case shows that the silent‐relay architecture produces more opportunities for modularization than the solid‐state architecture due to the higher substitutability factor and lower new‐to‐the‐firm component composition. The Schindler case captures the dynamics of modularity created by three types of components (standard, customizable, and new to the firm) and two types of interfaces (fundamental and optional). Based on the case studies, the article outlines testable propositions and discusses the managerial and theoretical implications for the modularization function.     

Modularity in making: simplifying solution space for user innovation

An increasingly popular form of open innovation in the digital age is ‘making,’ where users innovate across multiple disciplines and make products that meet their needs, using mechanical, electronic, and digital components. These users have at their disposal, a wide solution space for innovation through various modular toolkits enabled by digital‐age technologies. This study explores and outlines how these users simplify this wide solution space to innovate and make tangible products. Following a modularity theory perspective, it draws on case studies of users and their innovations: (1) Users with initial prototype product designs based on the Internet of things (IoT) from a maker event and (2) users with established product designs from the online community platform Thingiverse. The studies found that users reused the design in the form of existing off‐the‐shelf products and utilized digital fabrication and low‐cost electronics hardware as a ‘glue’ to create physical and informational interfaces wherever needed, enabling bottom‐up modularity. They iteratively refined their innovations, gradually replacing re‐used designs with own integrated designs, reducing modularity, and reducing wastage. The study contributes to open innovation and modularity with implications on the design of products and toolkits enabled by the digital age.