Zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der Biomethaneinspeisung auf die Entwicklung der deutschen Erdgasversorgung

Natural gas offers several advantages compared to other fossil fuels, especially regarding its specific CO₂ emissions and its flexibility in usage. Thus, it is expected that the consumption of natural gas will further increase in the future. Nevertheless, this increase is accompanied by a growing dependence on imports. Biomethane, i.e. conditioned biogenous gas, is an interesting possibility for the substitution of natural gas. As it is a renewable and indigenous energy source, it contributes to the reduction of both: CO₂ emissions and gas imports. Similar to the renewable electricity generation, the German government sets targets for the biomethane feed-in and has introduced promotion mechanisms to achieve these goals. Within this paper the possible role of biomethane in the German natural gas supply has been evaluated by applying the optimising energy flow model PERSEUS-EEM. Results show that the CO₂ emissions trading system by itself is not sufficient for the competitiveness of biomethane. Model results demonstrate that a significant increase of the German natural gas demand can be expected especially due to the stringent CO₂ reduction targets. Even when the political CO₂-reduction targets are reached, biomethane will not play a major role in the natural gas supply of Germany.     

Disentangling sources of vehicle emissions reduction in France: 2003–2008

We analyze the evolution of CO₂ emissions of new vehicles sold in France between 2003 and 2008. We investigate in particular the effect of two policies introduced during that time: the energy label requirement, which went into effect in the end of 2005, and a feebate based on CO₂ emissions of new vehicles in 2008. We estimate a flexible model of demand for automobiles that incorporates consumers’ heterogeneity and valuation of vehicle CO₂ emissions. Our results show that there has been a shift in preferences towards low-emitting cars. Moreover, the timing of these changes is consistent with the introduction of the two policies. This suggests that the feebate had a crowding-in effect in addition to its price effect. Overall, the change in preferences accounts for 40% of the overall decrease in average CO₂ emissions of new cars in the period.     

Einfluss der CO2-Zertifikatspreise auf die Stromgestehungskosten im deutschen Energiemix

In the past, electricity generation costs in Germany’s energy mix depended for the most part on the development of fossil fuel prices. Despite the strongly increasing share of renewable energies in the energy mix, the generation of electricity from fossil fuel power plants, especially brown and bituminous coal power plants, still dominates in Germany today. Alongside fossil fuels as an increasing cost factor, the price of CO₂ is also gaining importance as a price factor in the production of electricity from fossil fuel power plants. The establishment of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in 2005 formed the basis of CO₂ emissions pricing, and was oriented on the emission reduction targets of the European Union. Although the price of CO₂-certificates in free trade is shown on several stock exchanges, the CO₂ price is still policy driven. The amount of free allocated and traded CO₂-certificates is set on a European policy level. Current decisions on temporary limitations of the trade volume have corresponding effects on exchange prices. This article aims to investigate the impact of CO₂-certificate prices on electricity generation costs in the German energy mix. Comparing real CO₂ prices to forecasts for 2013 provides findings on the effects that the political decisions of the European Parliament with regard to the limitation of the trade volume of available CO₂-certificates have on electricity generation costs in the German energy mix.     

Bedeutung von CO2-Transport- und Speicheroptionen im europäischen Energiesystem

Aiming the stabilisation of the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere at 450 ppm, a strong climate policy in the EU-27 will be required. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and the building up of a CO₂ pipeline system will be one option to avoid climate change. The analysis of the potential CO₂ storage options in Europe shows a huge potential in the North Sea and their neighbouring countries and only less potentials in the southern European countries. A scenario analysis using the European energy system model TIMES PanEU shows that the installation of CO₂ transport pipelines for cross boarder exchange of CO₂ from power plants located next to the boarder could be one possible infrastructure solution. This solution is a cost efficient option which will be used mainly by the North Sea neighbouring countries (Germany, UK, the Netherlands, Denmark) and Poland. A central pipeline grid in the North Sea for the usage of huge storage options like the Utsira formation will be important in the future for countries with limited CO₂ storage capacities (like Belgium or the Netherlands). If cheap storage options like onshore Aquifers are not available, the design of central CO₂ pipeline grids has a strong impact on the power plant structure, the electricity and CO₂ certificate price. Based on a limited availability of onshore CO₂ storages the electricity price will increase by up to 16 € 2007/MWh and the CO₂-certificate price will rise by additional 35 € 2007/t CO₂ in 2050.     

Energieeffizienznetzwerke – beschleunigte Emissionsminderungen in der mittelständischen Wirtschaft

The reduction of energy-related CO₂ emissions by more efficient enery use in medium sized companies is one of the most profitable options. However, these opportunities are scarcely realised because of many obstacles and market failures. High transaction cost and decision routines play an important role for decision making and procurement of the companies. A network concept being developed in Switzerland and covering an initial consulting of each participating company, targets for the network, regular and moderated meetings of the energy managers for mutual exchange of experiences and a yearly monitoring alleviates many of these obstacles. It doubles the energy efficiency progress relative to the average progress of industry. This network concept can be fully realised by industry itself. Average energy savings per site and year are 100,000 € and average CO₂ emission reduction about 500 t CO₂ per year and site. Assuming a maximum potential of 700 Networks, additional emission reductions of some 10 Mio. t CO₂ seem to be possible in Germany by 2020. A network management system for consulting engineers and moderators allows a minimum performance standard of how to start and operate those efficiency networks.     

CO2 Speicherung in Deutschland: Eine Brückentechnologie als Klimalösung?

The technology for CO₂ capture, transport and storage (CCTS) in the power plant and industrial sector are considered as an important component in a portfolio of technologies for CO₂ reduction. However, delayed or canceled demonstration projects show that the cost of the capture unit, the necessary pipeline infrastructure and the scarce storage potential in geological formations restrict the CCTS potential. In addition, growing public resistance could lead a further reduction of the CO₂ abatement potential. In this paper the contribution of the CCTS technology for CO₂ reduction in the energy and industrial sectors in Germany is calculated using the model CCTSMOD. It turns out that the application of CCTS is economically interesting for selected industrial sectors under CO₂ certificate prices of 50 €/t and for the power sector under certificate prices of 75 €/t. Because of the limited storage potential, lack of alternative mitigation options and low cost of the deposition, a predominant use of technology in the steel and cement sector is recommended.     

?konometrische Analyse der Temperaturvariabilit?t

This paper aims at analysing temperature fluctuations by applying an econometric methodology. To this end a physically founded macroclimate model is suggested for individual examinations of the climate forcing of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and other greenhouse gases as well as of the cooling effect of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) since 1880 and for a comparison of their impacts. The autoregressive process in the temperature anomalies is analysed, and a cointegration analysis is carried out to show that a long-term causal interrelation can be derived from the stochastic trend variables considered. However, this interrelation is not unique. It turns out that anthropogenic factors and total solar irradiance determine the warming trend in the period 1880 to 2005, whilst the remaining natural factors explain a part of the deviation from this trend. With 42?% the autoregressive process in the anomalies has a considerable impact on the temperature increase. Climate sensitivity amounting to 0.11 (K?m²)/W therefore is comparatively low. If the share of the autoregressive process is allocated to each regressor individually CO₂ has an impact of 65?%. The SO₂ emissions have a significant cooling effect, neutralizing 45?% of the climate forcing of CO₂. The non-CO₂ greenhouse gases contribute 55?% to the temperature increase and hence more than the net effect of CO₂ and SO₂ of 36?%. Hence, the sensitivity of the climate with regard to these greenhouse gases is very high. When applying accelerated mitigation measures with respect to non-CO₂ greenhouse gases it is possible to reach the 2^° target without decarbonisation.     

Kohlekraftwerke mit CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-Abscheidung: Strategien,Rahmenbedingungen und umweltseitige Auswirkungen

A successful implementation of CO₂-capture in power plants is mainly depending on the energy political or economical environment. The future role of lignite and hard coal power production varies widely in presumed energy scenarios. This report considers the actual projections of BDEW. Increasing demand, the replacement of old plants and the compensation of efficiency losses due to CCS-technology cause highly ambitious expansion rates, assuming a retrofit time horizon of 10 years starting in 2020. The corresponding coal demand increases strongly. Therefore, a solely concentration of CO₂-reduction potential is not sufficient. Other environmental impacts triggered through emissions are low compared to the total German impacts. Nevertheless, the compliance with national ceilings for NO_x emissions for example can only be reached by compensation measures in other sectors.     

L-M贝叶斯正则化BP神经网络在红外CO_2传感器的应用

针对温度会影响红外CO_2传感器的输出电压,造成对CO_2的浓度检测误差较大的问题,提出了一种基于L-M贝叶斯正则化BP神经网络的温度补偿方法。实验中将传感器输出电压比和温度作为神经网络的输入,CO_2浓度作为神经网络的输出,并通过L-M算法和贝叶斯正则化对神经网络进行优化。经过实验仿真证明,在温度补偿后红外CO_2传感器测量输出的浓度值最大相对误差为4.557 8%,具有较高的精确度。因此L-M贝叶斯正则化BP神经网络能对红外CO_2传感器进行有效的温度补偿,可为相关红外传感器仪器的改进提供参考。     

基于颗粒动力学的高炉风口焦炭行为仿真研究

焦炭在风口回旋区运动、燃烧,其行为对回旋区的活跃程度产生影响,对高炉起着非常重要的作用,但受到实验手段的限制,难以对其进行直接的测量研究。应用颗粒动力学将焦炭颗粒视作拟流体,采用欧拉双流体理论构建了气固两相流风口回旋区仿真模型,并验证了该模型的正确性。通过该模型分析了回旋区内焦炭的运动规律和燃烧后气体成分的变化,发现风口前端回旋区外围的环形带是焦炭进入回旋区的主要位置;O2浓度沿风口中心线向炉内逐渐降低,CO2浓度先增加后减小至零,CO浓度逐渐增加至稳定。     

Assessing the impact of cost optimization based on infrastructure modelling on CO2 emissions

Traditionally, logistics design is driven by a need to reduce costs and improve customer service. Recently, the environmental concerns from transport have been increasingly discussed. The traffic levels and associated energy consumption are influenced by supply chain structure, modal split and vehicle utilization. This paper aims to assess the impact of the traditional cost optimization approach to strategic modelling on overall logistics costs and CO₂ emissions by taking into account the supply chain structure (number of depots) and different freight vehicle utilization ratios (90%, 75% and 60%). The simulation model, based on a European case study from the automotive industry, considers strategic and operational level decisions simultaneously. The analysis shows that the optimum design based on costs does not necessary equate to an optimum solution for CO₂ emissions, therefore there is a need to address economical and environmental objectives explicitly as part of the logistics design.     

Klimaschutzpolitik in Deutschland – eine ökonomische Konsistenzanalyse der Rahmenbedingungen für den Strommarkt

In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions stemming from the electricity sector, Germany has implemented various instruments during the last ten years. The joint effect of both these instruments and the emissions trading system of the European Union is significant over-regulation. The German support systems for renewable energy and combined heat and power as well as the electricity tax don’t have any positive effect on climate protection any more. In the case of combined heat and power the support system may even result in increases of CO₂-emissions. For efficiency reasons climate protection policy in the power sector should be limited to emissions trading.     

Potential für Kraftwerke mit Kohlendioxidrückhaltung aus Systemperspektive

System considerations support a discussion of selected factors influencing the economic viability of power plants with CO₂ sequestration technology (CCS, for carbon dioxide capture and storage), leading to conclusions when and how much of their potential may conceivably be realised. The CCS realisation is interconnected to investments into other technologies, to technological advances, to the price of CO₂ emission certificates, to plant dispatch, and to the prices of power. In a system of CCS potential realisation by individual actors, these variables are endogenous. This article is mainly about them. CCS is more of a long term option than a bridge technology. In contrast to other CO₂ reduction technologies, both economic operation and economic investment necessarily require high CO₂ certificate prices. An increase in power plant efficiency without CCS, switching to natural gas and power generation from renewable sources involve more mature technologies that may benefit from further application within the coming decades. Even far beyond 2020 this effect may delay and dampen the potential of CCS technology. An economic or market potential is dependent to a lesser extent on assumptions about future barriers but rather on their dynamic interactions.     

Environmental Tax Reform in the European Union: Impact on CO2 Emissions and the Economy

Economic instruments in environmental policy try to correct prices in order to internalise externalities. The environmental tax reform is a specific policy approach, which raises taxation of ‘bads’ such as resource use or emissions and reduces other taxes on ‘goods’ such as labour that are felt as a burden so that the total tax revenue remains constant. On a small scale some European countries introduced this instrument, and the results have been evaluated broadly positive by the literature. The paper at hand gives answers to the question, what might happen to CO₂ emissions and the economy, if this instrument would be used in all European countries in a scale that allows reaching the European CO₂ emission targets. The instrument of the analysis is the global economy-energy-environment model GINFORS. The simulation results show that the targets can be met with only small losses in GDP and gains in employment.     

Empfehlungen für das Auktionsdesign für Emissionsberechtigungen

From an economic perspective, auctions are an appropriate mechanism for the initial allocation of emissions allowances, because they tend to be advantageous with respect to distributional and efficiency goals. Different auction designs can lead to different outcomes, though, and so the choice of the auction rules is a critical challenge. Recent developments in auction theory and rich experiences with practical auction design in the energy and many other sectors can help avoiding mistakes and designing an appropriate auction mechanism. This study summarizes the relevant research and concludes with concrete recommendations for the auction design for CO₂ allowances. In particular, it analyzes how the strategic options of buyers and sellers depend on the auction rules, and explains how secondary markets for allowances interact with bidding strategies and optimal institutional design.     

W?rmed?mmungs-Strategien im Haushaltssektor und ihr Beitrag zu Materialeffizienz und Emissionsminderung – eine Langfristanalyse bis zum Jahr 2050

An often controversial question is whether a massive insulation of houses in the overall balance does not cause more resource consumption and emissions than it saves in the end. To investigate this question, for the first time a trade-off analysis has been performed. For this, a bottom-up impact analysis model was developed, whose core forms an emissions- and energy model for the household sector which is coupled with a life cycle assessment tool. Both models provide the framework for energy scenarios to 2050, claiming for each decade refurbishment rates and energy mixes. Thus, ??pure?? energy scenarios can be extended by resource policy analyses and the effects of various insulation strategies might be determined. The central result of modeling is that additional costs are compensated for insulating (extruded polystyrene foam XPS and cellulose were examined) both resource- and emission-side in almost all environmental impact categories with significant savings in building heating. Essentially, there are no trade-offs identified, and the percentage contribution of the insulating materials on the environmental impact indicators is low. In contrast, the choice of foaming agent in the foamed XPS insulation is relevant: Compared with the XPS used in Germany, which is largely CO₂ foamed insulation, one which has a high proportion of HFCs, leads to a high trade-off regarding the impact category ??stratospheric ozone depletion?? and leads to a noticeable, but not significant effect on the global warming potential. A sensitivity analysis with the alternative cellulose insulation material shows that the already low shares of the insulation continue to decrease with regard to the environmental impact indicators. However, with regard to the material intensity, XPS and cellulose insulation are associated with similar effects. In summary, it can be stated that for both insulation materials ambitious strategies??with regard to all factors analysed in the study??can significantly contribute to material efficiency as well as to emissions reduction targets.     

Erneuerbare Energien in W?rmenetzen – eine realistische Perspektive?

The heating sector holds high potentials for cutting CO₂ emissions by using renewable energy. These potentials can be tapped either by substituting fossil fuels in individual heating units or by using renewable energy in district heating networks, which may be more efficient. This paper asks for the options to increase the share of renewable energy in Germany??s district heating infrastructure and for the restrictions that are hampering further development in this field. It critically discusses the relevant technical, political and economic challenges and determinants. District heating networks fuelled by renewable energy are not only competing with fossil fuels in individual heating units. They are also facing the more fundamental question regarding the preconditions for a profitable and worthwhile operation of grid-bound heat supply. The economic viability of heat grids has to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis, since it depends predominantly on individual framework conditions. Those include a decreasing heat demand due to improving energy performance of buildings, competing gas grids already in place and the complex interest structures of the actors involved. The growth rates that were observed in the last years were predominantly achieved in small renewably fuelled district heating networks. Even under favourable framework conditions, there is a need for additional supportive measures to increase the share of renewable energy in district heating grids. This mix of policy instruments should encompass measures to increase the implementation rates of municipal heat utilization concepts, measures to decrease the initial investments needed, as well as public relations to improve the user perception of grid-bound heat supply. However, the options to increase the share of renewable heat in existing large-scale grids are considered to be rather limited.     

二氧化碳捕集现状和展望

随着科学技术的发展和环保要求不断提高，控制CO2的排放量已是全球能源和工业界不可回避的课题。详细介绍了CO2捕集系统及其所采用的CO2分离技术，重点介绍了各种CO2分离技术的特点及适用范围，并对工业和能源2个重点行业的CO2捕集现状进行了分析，提出了CO2资源化利用是将来CO2减排的发展方向。     

The effect of using consumption taxes on foods to promote climate friendly diets – The case of Denmark

Agriculture is responsible for 17–35% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions with livestock production contributing by approximately 18–22% of global emissions. Due to high monitoring costs and low technical potential for emission reductions, a tax on consumption may be a more efficient policy instrument to decrease emissions from agriculture than a tax based directly on emissions from production. In this study, we look at the effect of internalising the social costs of greenhouse gas emissions through a tax based on CO₂ equivalents for 23 different foods. Furthermore, we compare the loss in consumer surplus and the changed dietary composition for different taxation scenarios. In the most efficient scenario, we find a decrease in the carbon footprint from foods for an average household of 2.3–8.8% at a cost of 0.15–1.73 DKK per kg CO₂ equivalent whereas the most effective scenario led to a decrease in the carbon footprint of 10.4–19.4%, but at a cost of 3.53–6.90 DKK per kg CO₂ equivalent. The derived consequences for health show that scenarios where consumers are not compensated for the increase in taxation level lead to a decrease in the total daily amount of kJ consumed, whereas scenarios where the consumers are compensated lead to an increase. Most scenarios lead to a decrease in the consumption of saturated fat. Compensated scenarios leads to an increase in the consumption of added sugar, whereas uncompensated scenarios lead to almost no change or a decrease. Generally, the results show a low cost potential for using consumption taxes to promote climate friendly diets.