物流经济条件下我国应对世界“粮食危机”的价格政策

当前国际粮食价格飞涨,在世界范围内掀起了新一轮的粮食危机。作为粮食需求大国,我们有必要对国外的粮食危机与国内的现状进行深入分析,以此指导我国的粮食价格政策转变。粮食危机是粮食价格增长过快、供给不足的表现,而价格增长源于供给不足,故国际粮食危机的根源是供给不足。种粮危机是目前我国粮食政策所应重点关注的问题。     

俄罗斯农业现况及中俄农业合作潜力

近几年来,俄罗斯在农业的发展上取得了喜人的成绩。粮食产量连创新高,粮食出口增至1500万吨。2007年下半年由于粮价的上涨,粮食关税从10%上调到40%。2008年,在世界金融危机愈演愈烈的情况下,俄农业生产发展态势良好。根据俄国现行的农业情况,俄政府制定了下一步的农业发展计划,这使我国更加明确了对俄农业合作的途径和目标。     

“谷贱伤农”仍然是粮食增产的最大隐患

粮食是关系国计民生的重要战略资源,粮食安全和粮食供需平衡是构建和谐社会的重要基础。近年来,受全球粮食供需形势多变、国内耕地和水资源减少、城市化进程加快等因素影响,粮食安全问题日益突出。特别是2006年第四季度全国范围粮价迅速上涨,引起了各级党委、政府及社会各界对粮食问题的关注。＂谷贱伤农＂仍然是粮食增产的最大隐患。从粮食价格方面分析了我国粮食增产的影响因素,并提出了相关对策。     

我国粮食安全:基于美元贬值视角下的分析

由美元贬值引起的农资生产资料价格上涨、替代生物能源需求增加、国际投机资本流动等派生因素对粮食价格的直接、间接推动作用,根据我国粮食现状,现阶段应采取敦促美元升值、提高粮食单产、提高科技对粮食贡献率,以及密切关注国内粮食期货价格波动等,努力保证我国粮食安全。     

Steep increase in oil prices as gulf crisis lingers on

Following a brief interruption, the recovery in world commodity prices witnessed during the first months of the year has continued. Crude oil prices reached their highest level for 16 months. The increase in prices for industrial raw materials that began early this year, however, came to a complete standstill. With the world economy recovering more slowly, can commodity prices be expected to fall again?     

加强广东省储备粮宏观调控的必要性分析

本文分析了广东省粮食生产和消费结构,预测了未来两年的粮食需求及粮食缺口。得出加强储备粮的宏观调控,能增强政府粮食宏观调控能力,是应对粮价飞涨和粮食供应紧张局面的需要,也是缓解广东省粮食供求矛盾、保障社会稳定的关键。     

我国农产品市场价格变动背后的生产成本效应--以粮食为例

以粮食为主要研究对象,探讨我国农产品市场价格变化过程中存在的生产成本效应。在具体方法上,将成本因素划分为生产成本、供应成本和机会成本三类,选取有关变量指标,并选择小麦、稻谷和玉米三类代表性的粮食,以1988年~2017年全国数据为样本进行实证检验。结果发现:我国粮食价格上涨背后的成本效应非常显著,农业生产资料价格、劳动力成本、农产品物流成本、劳动力机会成本等是引起我国粮食价格上涨的重要成本因素;此外,粮食区域供应成本是小麦和玉米价格上涨的一个推手,但是对稻谷价格的推动作用却不显著。     

Government influence on energy prices

There is now widespread agreement that, in the interest of energy conservation and substitution of oil, consumer prices for energy should reflect world market prices while taking account of longer-term trends. Are the energy policies of the major industrialised countries in conformity with this demand?     

化肥价格变化对粮食价格的影响研究--基于省际动态面板数据模型的系统GMM检验

基于我国粮食价格与化肥价格变动趋势的分析,运用2006年~2017年省际动态面板数据模型和系统GMM方法,实证检验了化肥价格变动对粮食价格的影响。结果表明:化肥价格变动对粮食价格存在显著的正向影响,在考虑化肥价格影响下,农业生产服务、种子等农资价格对粮食价格也存在显著的正向影响,机械化农具和农药价格对粮食价格不显著,"价补分离"政策对粮食价格存在显著负向影响。因此,在化肥减量行动背景下,适度调控化肥价格,避免化肥价格上升挤占粮农利润,大力发展农业生产性服务业和种子业,继续实行"价补分离"政策,提高补贴精准性,减少农民投入成本。     

The Tunisia Wheat Market in the Context of World Price Volatility: A Stochastic Partial Equilibrium Approach

Food security is a key objective of agricultural and food policy in Tunisia. The 2007–2008 food crisis highlighted the negative impacts of price volatility on international markets both in terms of food insecurity and budget exposure. Tunisian food subsidy expenditures ranged from $180 million to $710 million in 2006–2010, so volatile world prices meant volatile subsidy costs. Moreover, cereal production in Tunisia still has much instability due to climate conditions, which also influences imports and, consequently, subsidy expenditures. This study applies a structural model to conduct stochastic analyses of trade and policy impacts on food security and budget expenditures in the Tunisian wheat market. The methodology disaggregates durum wheat and soft wheat markets and generates projections of import prices of durum wheat and soft wheat, using projections of world prices provided by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU). The key innovation is the generated stochastic analyses of subsidy costs based on stochastic world price projections and stochastic domestic wheat yields based on historic yield variances. The analysis highlights the sensitivity of subsidy costs to world prices, volumes imported and domestic production, so that alternative policy tools can be considered.     

“双循环”新发展格局下提升黑龙江省粮食综合生产能力的路径研究

2020年,突如其来的新型冠状肺炎疫情席卷全球,世界经济遭受重创,我国拥有14亿人口,保证粮食安全是国之策略,黑龙江省作为我国粮食主产区,肩负着时代重任,在“双循环”新发展格局下,提升黑龙江省粮食综合生产能力意义重大。黑龙江省应坚持贯彻粮食安全新战略、坚持贯彻体制机制与科技创新的“双轮驱动”战略等战略举措,继续实施农业供给侧结构性改革、加强粮食基础设施建设、提升粮食全要素生产水平等提升粮食生产能力的路径选择,以及创新粮食生产企业对外投资新思路、大力培育和扶持大型粮食生产加工企业、加大境外粮食生产投资与合作的激励政策等。     

Immigration and international prices

This paper considers the relation between immigration and prices in a number of countries across the world over the period from 1990 to 2006. Immigration is shown to have a negative impact on international relative prices. A 10% increase in the share of immigrant workers in total employment decreases the prices of final products by as much as 3%. Our results suggest that the tendency of this factor of production to relocate to relatively expensive high-wage countries exerts downward pressure on prices of tradeables and non-tradeables there relative to other locations. The effect of immigration on prices is more evident for goods consumed by immigrants as compared to goods produced by immigrants.     

世界粮食贸易格局及趋势研究

通过对近20年世界粮食的生产、消费与贸易情况进行分析,本研究认为,世界粮价波动带有明显的周期性质,供需基本面的变化仍然是本轮国际粮价上涨的根本原因。从短期看,未来两三年全球粮食供求状况将有所改善,国际粮价维持在相对不高的水平上。对中长期的预测为,粮食需求的增长速度仍将快过产量及供给的增长速度,全球粮食供求将长期趋紧。     

Manufacturers' brand advertising and how it influences manufacturers' and retailers' margins

This article describes the effects of manufacturers' brand advertising on the costs, margins and prices of firms in a real-life, 'dual-stage' world where manufacturers sell to retailers who resell to consumers. Unlike 'single-stage' models, which are frequently used by economists, in which manufacturers appear to sell directly to consumers or to deal with them through an inert distribution system, retailers in a dual-stage world neither buy nor sell as perfect competitors. Although in some industry structures advertising will raise prices to consumers, the welfare effects of advertising are far more benign in a dual-stage world. In intensively advertised categories consumers are more disposed to switch stores within brand than brands within store (just the opposite of relationships in categories where brand franchises are weak) causing there to be an inverse association between margins at the two stages. Thus, while intensive advertising will normally raise factory prices it will drive down retailer margins, often to the point that retail prices are below the levels that would be obtained if the industry were only lightly advertised.     

小议粮食购销企业的成本控制

近几年国家为稳定市场粮价、促进农民增收、调动农民种粮积极性、保护农民利益,对粮食主产区实行托市收购、制定了粮食最低收购价格,如何在既定的收购价格等条件下,进行成本控制成为了粮食购销企业最为关心的话题。本文结合成本控制理论从粮食购销企业成本控制主要思路、如何做好粮食购销企业成本控制的基础工作以及粮食购销企业成本控制的主要手段等方面展开论述,对于粮食购销企业的成本控制具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

世界粮食危机的诱因及应对

2007年以来全球因粮食供应紧张而导致粮食价格上涨,已在多个国家引起恐慌.文章对粮食危机的成因进行了分析,指出了偶发性、周期性、货币性、结构性诸多因素引发了粮食危机,而粮食短缺将是长期趋势.国际粮价上涨将带动国内粮价上涨,但影响有限.     

The impact of agricultural and trade policies on price transmission: The case of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

This paper examines the extent and speed of price transmission from international to local markets in two transition economies, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The two countries have similar economic backgrounds, but a notable difference is that Tajikistan has adopted a more liberal agricultural trade regime than Uzbekistan. We use a vector error correction model to analyse how global agricultural prices are transmitted to domestic food prices in the two countries. We find strong cointegration between world market and domestic prices in Tajikistan for food crops but not meat, and no cointegration in Uzbekistan.     

我国粮食安全模式探析

基于我国土地和水资源状况和我国农业投入成本和效益分析,我国未来粮食的自我保证能力有限。同时分析世界粮食的供求、我国外汇能力和我国粮食进口对世界粮食市场的影响,目前国内粮食生产的成本已经很高,粮食进口尚有一定的上升空间。因此结合我国的特殊国情,我国的粮食保障应选择适度进口的“双保险”粮食安全模式。     

Prices of raw materials continue to rise

Following the abatement of the boom market during the early months of 1983, the coming months will see an “adjustment” of world market prices for industrial raw materials to “fundamental” market conditions. Price fluctuations are likely during this period. A gradual increase in demand for raw materials and a moderate rise in raw materials prices can be expected during the further course of 1983 and in 1984.     

Rising commodity prices

In the wake of faster economic growth and thus higher demand for commodities in the Western world, the upward trend of the prices for industrial raw materials continued during 1972, and indeed gathered speed, on world markets. The following contribution is an analysis of the development in the past year and attempts a preview for 1973.