基于供需视角的我国区域人才流动研究

市场经济下,人才资源作为生产要素,其配置也遵循市场规律,而市场配置的驱动机制主要是供求机制,当地区人才需求和供给不平衡时,人才资源会在地区间转移。首先界定了人才需求与人才供给的衡量指标,然后从人才供需的视角探讨了区域人才流动理论,利用ARIMA模型,采用1990-2012年的统计数据,分别预测了东部、中部、西部和东北地区2013-2020年的人才需求和人才供给情况,并依据预测值分析了区域人才流动趋势。研究结果表明,未来几年,人才资源流动更多地表现为从中部、西部和东北地区向东部地区流动。     

基于人力资本生产(增值)规律的人才流动与人才成长关系研究

基于人力资本生产(增值)的观点,把人才作为人力资本的优良载体,构建了人力资本产权交易(流动)的动力模型,系统阐述了人力资本产权交易的过程,并将人才流动置于人力资本产权交易的高度,从人才的个体层面探讨了人才流动与人才成长的关系。     

广东西部地区人才流动意向特征及原因分析

人才是区域经济发展的最宝贵资源。目前广东各地区的人才资源分布不平衡,人才流动不尽合理,特别是欠发达地区人才紧缺的现象还比较严重。通过对粤西地区人才流动意向的调查、分析,得出了粤西地区人才流动意向具有人才流动趋势较大、人才向发达地区流动的意向很强等十大特征,并分析了这些特征形成的原因,进而为粤西地区如何留住人才、合理使用人才,促进地区经济发展提供可靠的理论依据。     

企业视角下人才流动动因研究——来自珠三角854家企业数据

当前从企业角度分析人才流动动因的研究较少,且样本异质性不足。使用Price-Mueller雇员离职模型原理构建人才流动影响因素,在增强样本异质性条件下,采用有序和多分类离散Logistic计量分析模型,从企业视角定量研究其不同性质、结构形式、行业、规模、发展阶段的人才流动性风险概率和动因。结果显示:民营/私营企业、信息产业技能型人才流动风险较大,人才流动具有主营收入和人员的规模效应;各分类条件下流动影响动因差异显著,一般人才和技能型人才较多关注薪酬福利和社会保障,科研和管理型人才更注重培训、学习、晋升机会和企业文化、制度等,同时不少人才逐渐将工作和家庭生活质量与环境作为其流动主要动因,人才流动新特征逐渐显现。     

个体特征对人才流动风险偏好的影响研究

在研究影响组织人才流动因素的基础上,运用预期效用理论分析人才流动过程中存在的风险,认为个体风险偏好的存在影响人才的流动决策。通过对杭州高新产业集群企业人才流动情况的实证分析,指出了影响人才流动风险偏好的因素,并提出了企业留住人才的对策。     

企业视角下人才流动动因研究

当前从企业角度分析人才流动动因的研究较少，且样本异质性不足。使用Price-Mueller雇员离职模型原理构建人才流动影响因素，在增强样本异质性条件下，采用有序和多分类离散Logistic计量分析模型，从企业视角定量研究其不同性质、结构形式、行业、规模、发展阶段的人才流动性风险概率和动因。结果显示：民营/私营企业、信息产业技能型人才流动风险较大，人才流动具有主营收入和人员的规模效应；各分类条件下流动影响动因差异显著，一般人才和技能型人才较多关注薪酬福利和社会保障，科研和管理型人才更注重培训、学习、晋升机会和企业文化、制度等，同时不少人才逐渐将工作和家庭生活质量与环境作为其流动主要动因，人才流动新特征逐渐显现。     

高校人才流动与管理策略研究

人才流动不仅是社会进步与发展的必然趋势,而且是人才自身价值实现的需要。只有在良性的人才流动中高校才能获得健康的活力和可持续发展。本文首先介绍了高校人才流动的特点,然后对如何管理高校人才科学流动的策略进行了探讨。     

国际商务人才流动规律探析

本文从分析国际商务人才的重要性出发,构建影响国际商务人才流动的重要指标体系。在此基础上通过层次分析AHP改良模型进行数据处理和研究,并结合对南京市代表性外贸企业DMS的问卷调查和专家访谈等诸多研究方法,得到研究国际商务人才流动一般性规律的实用方法。最后,针对正确引导国际商务人才适度流动提出建议。     

人才流动的成长效应——一个探索分析框架

本文研究了人才流动的成长效应,分别探讨了人才流动的正向成长效应与负向成长效应。深入分析了人才流动的正反馈效应、累积交点效应、知识学习突跃效应与创造力提升效应,从而揭示了人才流动过程中的成长规律。该研究不仅推进了人才成长规律的理论,也将为个人的流动决策提供理论依据。     

人才流动效应:从知识失业到人才获取

知识失业是中国劳动力市场中一个突出的现象,借助工作搜寻模型进行的分析表明,新增知识劳动者由于存在获得发达地区高薪工作的预期而主动选择暂时性失业,产生人才流动的短期效应——知识失业。这种预期促使更多个体增加教育投入,知识劳动者存量增加,出现人才流动的长期效应——人才获取。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

How chaebol restructuring after the 1997 crisis has affected corporate decision and performance in Korea: debt financing,ownership structure,and investment

ABSTRACT

Korean chaebol firms, characterized by excessive debt financing and overinvestment, experienced restructuring after the 1997 crisis. By reducing debt financing and thus overinvestment, they tried to reorganize financing structure and ownership structure. Chaebols’ debt reduction turns out to have improved performance. However, polarization between chaebol and non-chaebol firms has become more significant. Even after the crisis, firms that give higher cash flows to a controlling shareholder take more capital investment, indicating that agency problems still exist within chaebols. Chaebol-affiliated firms continue to be more active in R&D than non-chaebol firms. However, the pattern is limited to the group of top 10 chaebols after the crisis.

Abbreviations: KFTC: Korea Fair Trade Commission     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The concept of freedom and its relation to economic development--a critical appreciation of the work of Amartya Sen

Following a brief review of the conception of freedom as employedin economic discourse, this paper focuses on the evolution ofthe concept of freedom in the work of Amartya Sen. It tracesthe development of Sen's thought from the capability analysisof the late 1970s to his more recent separation of freedom intoits opportunity and process aspects. While broadly appreciativeof Sen's development of the concept of positive freedom, thepaper identifies some difficulties arising from his definitionof capability as a set of options as well as from his separationof the opportunity and process aspects of freedom. Aspects ofthe relationship between Sen's conception of freedom and thatof Marx are discussed briefly in the context of Sen's recentdiscussion of the market as a source of freedom.