上市公司财务预警模型的研究

本文首先以沪深证交所2003年和2004年财务困境公司与非财务困境公司为样本,构建判别上市公司财务危机的模型,然后根据T检验的检验结果和以往研究的经验,最终选择流动比率、累积盈余、总资产报酬率和净资产收益率4个主要变量,分别运用单变量和多变量研究方法进行判别分析.研究表明,预测数据与建立模型的数据年度越临近,模型的预测能力越强,而离ST越远模型预测力越差.     

基于ARIMA与GARCH模型对我国国际入境旅游需求波动的研究

我国入境旅游需求近年来在高速增长的同时呈现出明显波动.最近国外学者开始借助计量经济学模型对其波动进行定量分析,这对于我国准确把握市场变化,制定产业发展战略及措施,提高旅游预测的精确性有着重要意义.本文建立单变量ARIMA-GARCH、ARIMA-EGARCH以及多变量CCC-GARCH模型对我国8个国际旅游主要客源国1990年1月～2006年12月入境客流量及其增长率序列进行实证研究.结果表明,上述模型具有很好的适用性.各国旅游需求的波动具有短期或长期的持续性及不对称性.它们之间大多正向相关,存在互补关系.     

上市公司财务失败预警分析方法评述

如何选择适当的财务失败预警研究方法 ,准确的根据财务指标预测上市公司未来的经营状况 ,具有非常重要的现实意义。文章通过对常用单变量和多变量预警模型应用的分析与评价 ,为选择高效的上市公司财务失败或破产预测模型提供科学的依据     

经典统计方法在财务困境预测中的应用综述

针对经典统计方法应用领域中的企业财务困境预测问题,结合当前国外研究成果,综述了企业财务困境预测的经典统计方法(单变量分析、风险指数模型、多元判别分析、条件概率模型),分析了这些方法在企业财务困境预测中出现的问题,如数据的非平稳性和时变性、样本缺乏随机性以及拟合方法选择缺乏统一标准等方面.     

基于面板数据的辽宁省人均农民收入增长预测研究

辽宁省14个地级市地区发展水平和农业发展水平存在明显的结构差异,各地区发展水平随时间变化也存在一定差异。传统的多元回归模型预测不能兼顾变量的时间变化以及对象差异特点,预测的准确性不高。文章采用面板数据模型,兼顾各对象之间的个体差异(不考虑时间因素)和农业自身结构的特点,并同时获得多个对象模型。对各个地区做出预测。然后进一步得到全省(农业人口加权)数据,结果更准确。     

我国台湾集团企业的结构与绩效实证分析

文章首先回顾了集团企业的相关理论，归纳出四个重要的集团企业结枸的构面，进而引导出本研究欲验证的六个假设，最后以单变量分析和多元回归的方法做分析和总结。     

农业类上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证分析

资本结构的影响因素分析是公司理财中的焦点问题.本文采用多元回归分析法,进行最小二乘法估计(OLS),对资本结构的影响变量建立多元回归模型,利用我国农业类上市公司两年来的数据进行了实证分析,以期能对农业类上市公司的公司理财提供一定的参考意见.     

中国外商直接投资区位选择的影响因素分析

利用中国1997—2011年30个省份的面板数据建立多元回归模型,分析外商在华直接投资区位选择的主要影响因素。将腐败作为主要解释变量,并与劳动力成本、基础设施和消费水平变量纳入同一个模型中,综合考查FDI区位选择的影响。通过对全国以及东中西部地区的实证分析发现,从全国来看,这些变量的影响都是显著的,但分别就东中西部地区而言,这些变量的显著性存在差异。     

基于旅游学角度的游客量预测模型构建及其实证研究

对旅游地游客量的预测研究,本文先构建基于旅游学基础的理论公式,再运用相应的数理统计方法进行数据处理以预测旅游地未来游客量变化趋势.在研究中引入游客量增长"速度"和"加速度"概念以及其他相关变量,构建了旅游地游客量的理论模型,赋予模型中各常数项以旅游学涵义及模型运用条件,结合旅游地生命周期理论探寻旅游地游客量最大值及到达时间的预测问题,在研究理论和方法上取得了一定的进展.     

湖南经济主要指标未来两年的预测

本文采用作者2005年推出的称为"前移回归分析"的时间序列预测新方法对湖南省经济主要指标进行预测,取得较好的效果.这种方法克服了以往时间序列预测只是自身拓展而不考虑多项因素(变量)的不足,也弥补了回归分析预测法必须已知同时期各个自变量值才能预测的缺陷.经济指标是多项相关因素的函数,一个时间段内各项指标(自变量)值会影响下一时间段待预测指标(因变量)的取值,这是新方法的依据.所建模型,经湖南省历史数据检验效果较好,但预测明后年的指标,有待今后的统计公报证实.     

我国房地产税制的现状及改革构想

房地产税制是维护房地产市场公平竞争，实现国家对房地产业宏观调控的有力杠杆。然而，我国现行的房地产税制却存在税费不分、税制不统一、税制结构不合理等诸多问题。严重影响了其对房地产业应有的宏观调控作用。因此，适时地推进房地产税制的改革应是当务之急，应统一内外税制，合理界定税费的范围，建立统一、规范、合理的房地产税收体系。     

The Change in Productive Efficiency in Telecommunications in the United States

The question addressed here is whether the adoption of incentive regulation, which has become an important regulatory tool in the telecommunications industry in the USA, has resulted in a change in the technical efficiency of local exchange carriers in the USA. After providing an overview of the nature of incentive regulation, a methodology for measuring technical efficiency and its change is introduced. This is a multiple-output/multiple-input distance function approach to measuring technical efficiency. The results of implementing this approach for 19 local exchange carriers for the 1988-2001 period indicate that in the production of local service, intrastate toll/access service, and interstate access to local loops, there was no change in technical efficiency between the 1988-1990 period and the 1991- 2001 period, something that incentive regulation was specifically designed to promote.     

The Change in Productive Efficiency in Telecommunications in the United States

The question addressed here is whether the adoption of incentive regulation, which has become an important regulatory tool in the telecommunications industry in the USA, has resulted in a change in the technical efficiency of local exchange carriers in the USA. After providing an overview of the nature of incentive regulation, a methodology for measuring technical efficiency and its change is introduced. This is a multiple-output/multiple-input distance function approach to measuring technical efficiency. The results of implementing this approach for 19 local exchange carriers for the 1988–2001 period indicate that in the production of local service, intrastate toll/access service, and interstate access to local loops, there was no change in technical efficiency between the 1988–1990 period and the 1991–2001 period, something that incentive regulation was specifically designed to promote.     

Public participation in forestry in Turkey

Recently public participation in forestry has been seriously considered in Turkey. Participation is however quite a challenge for a country with a long tradition of top-down management and a strong bottom-up dependence on public provisioning. In such a setting, it may not be surprising that the experiences with public participation in forestry in Turkey are mixed. There are some positive initiatives like the creation of farmer's cooperatives and NGOs, but their role is quite limited and small of scale. This paper is bringing together different views based on existing studies in Turkish related to Turkey's experience with implementing public participation in forestry.     

西部地区人力资本投资与知识化发展

人力资本投资在推动知识化发展的过程中存在自增强机制，通过促进人力资本保值增值，进行人力资源合理配置，改善配置环境和配置政策、完善配套措施，有助于充分发挥这一机制的功能，从而实现西部地区知识化发展。     

Inequalities in Income Distribution in Slovenia

This article presents an empirical analysis of income distribution based on income tax data for Slovenia in 1991-2000. It presents evidence of rising inequalities in income distribution (gross income, gross wages and pensions). These results are supported by coefficients of variation, Gini coefficients and by the Lorenz curves. Inequalities increased rapidly in the 1991 to 1993 period. After a significant decrease in 1994 and a steady increase from 1995 to 2000, the peak value from 1993 was not surpassed. Atkinson's requirements for dominance comparisons are not violated. Inequalities are also present in the distribution of the benefits of economic growth among income groups.     

Age Discrimination in Employment in Canada

Issues pertaining to age discrimination in employment in Canada are analyzed with a view toward highlighting lessons that may be learned from the Canadian experience—an experience that is taking on increased policy importance. Reasons for the increased attention to age discrimination issues are outlined, followed by a portrayal of the age discrimination legislation and court interpretations in Canada, especially as they pertain to mandatory retirement. Enforcement aspects are discussed, as is the evidence on age discrimination in employment and the effectiveness of legislation with respect to age discrimination and mandatory retirement. The article concludes with a discussion of the lessons to be learned from the Canadian experience, especially with respect to the poorly understood but complicated relationship between age discrimination and mandatory retirement. Policy recommendations for strengthening age discrimination legislation are also outlined. (JEL J14 , J24 , J71 )