"黄金周"经济效应的实证分析

自1999年国家对休假时间进行变更实行"黄金周"长假制度之后,假日经济在我国逐渐发展.但是,我国目前的假日经济发展存在一些问题,而"黄金周"制度的效果也有所争议.本文对1999～2007年"黄金周"的经济效应进行了定量分析,在此基础上探讨近年我国假日经济的发展状况,并对假日经济提出了合理的建议.     

假日经济对文化旅游的开发初探

"假日经济"近些年为旅游业提供了良好的发展契机,而在假日旅游中,文化旅游成为非常重要的一部分。如何在假日经济中利用文化来发展旅游,是当前旅游业发展的新趋势。目前,我国的文化旅游还存在一些问题,文章涉及假日经济对于文化旅游的意义、促进作用以及对策。     

"×"经济,围墙内的美餐等3篇

"新经济"如同一桌美餐被创造出来之后,虽然它的滋味只是创造者美妙的描述,只是在人们的想象中诱惑着贪婪的欲望,却已引来无数的围观者、觊觎者和分羹者.于是"假日经济"、"网络经济"、"展会经济"、"学历经济"等一道道菜式,就被从中端出而且捧为美食.而为证实这些美食的非凡价值,有关的数据、文章和学术报告纷纷见于各种会议和报刊,把人们弄得懵懵懂懂.     

居民消费价格指数季节调整实证研究

文章首先对居民消费价格指数季节调整的原因、季节调整方法的发展过程和应用进行了说明,着重介绍了国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA和TRAMO/SEATS季节调整方法,然后用X-12-ARIMA方法对上海市居民消费价格指数序列进行季节调整、分析和预测,并结合使用TRAMO/SEATS方法解决中国与国外明显不同的春节假日因素的调整问题,最后提出我国季节调整面临的问题.     

假日经济的问题分析与对策浅析

当前在我国假日经济发展的过程中,存在着一些亟待解决的问题,如果解决得不好.将制约假日经济的可持续发展.本文分析了我国假日经济可持续发展的制约因素,提出了实现假日经济可持续发展的对策.     

"假日经济"与河南省旅游业发展问题研究

进入21世纪，由新经济时代而派生出的新的产业经济链－“假日经济”正在对中国的旅游业产生越来越大的影响。河南旅游业在向现代化跨越之际，更应主动适应全球经济一体化的新趋势，从战略的高度认真研究“假日经济”对河南旅游业的影响，明确发展旅游业的现状和存在的问题，及时调整经济结构和发展战略，抓住机遇，迎接挑战,捕捉商机，制定有效对策，在扑面而来的“假日经济”面前处于主动地位。     

"高消费"的背后——长沙市居民消费结构的实证分析

近年来,作为湖南省会城市的长沙由于第三产业,尤其是新闻、娱乐业的异军突起引来了众人的目光,其城市经济的迅速发展和居民消费水平的提高也备受关注,更有人称长沙为"高消费"城市.那么,这种"高消费"究竟有多高?其背后的支撑力量又是什么?本文将结合近十年来反映长沙消费水平的数据,采用扩展线性支出系统模型对长沙市消费水平及其结构做出实证分析.     

基于SARIMA模型的内蒙古居民消费价格指数的实证研究

居民消费价格指数(CPI)是宏观经济分析、决策,价格总水平监测、调控以及国民经济核算的重要指标。为分析内蒙古消费价格指数随时间推移的变化规律,利用1994—2013年内蒙古居民消费价格指数的月度数据,运用Eviews软件建立乘积季节模型SARIMA,并对其未来走势进行预测,为制定有效物价调控政策提供数量依据。     

我国假日经济的效应及其可持续发展

本文从假日经济的现状入手,分析出我国假日经济存在着主导产业单一、区域发展不均衡,同时公众缺乏了解、商家反映不成熟而政府又欠缺引导的问题,基于假日经济对我国经济发展的作用,提出要从增强公众了解、加强宏观调控、增加城乡居民收入和创新假日经济发展方式几个方面克服消极影响,将假日经济的经济价值最大化.     

中国经贸界:入世前夕大论剑--"当代经济论坛--WTO与中国对策高级演讲会"和"WTO与企业对策研讨暨《当代经济》杂志社工作会议"纪要

金秋八月,按中国传统的农业节气,是收获的季节;但就中国将于本年11月加入世贸组织而言,又是播种的季节.在这无论是自然季节,还是社会季节,都是美好季节的季节里,《当代经济》杂志社与当代经济研究会等单位,先后于本年8月22日至23日和8月29日至31日,分别在"第五届中国民间艺术节"的举办地荆门市和中国改革开放的"前沿阵地"深圳市,举办了"WTO与企业对策研讨暨《当代经济》杂志社工作会议"和"当代经济论坛--WTO与中国对策高级演讲会"(以下分别简称为"荆门会议"和"深圳会议").     

家庭消费碳排放影响因素及其变化趋势分析——以陕西省为例

以陕西省2003—2017年数据为样本,建立LMDI模型分析各因素对陕西省家庭消费碳排放的影响及其变化趋势。结果表明,家庭消费效应、住房面积效应和家庭规模效应是造成家庭碳排放上升的正向推动因素,而碳排放强度效应、消费抑制效应和居住密度效应对家庭碳排放具有负向影响;2003—2017年,碳排放强度效应呈“U”型变化趋势,家庭消费效应、家庭规模效应和住房面积效应呈上升趋势,消费抑制效应和居住密度效应呈下降趋势。政府制定碳减排政策时可从碳排放贡献率较大的家庭消费、住房面积和家庭规模等方面着手,有针对性地缓解日益增长的家庭消费碳排放。     

Seasonality of income and poverty in Bangladesh

Seasonal food deprivation in Bangladesh, locally known as Monga, sometimes rises to the level of famine during the pre-harvest period of aman rice. An analysis of household income and expenditure survey data shows that income and consumption are lower during Monga than in other seasons, and that seasonal income greatly influences seasonal consumption. Econometric estimates reject the hypothesis of perfect consumption smoothing. In the northwestern region of greater Rangpur, rural households suffer disproportionately from Monga. Seasonal differences in poverty across regions are due mainly to differences in household-specific seasonality of income and consumption. Income diversification explains the lower incidence of income seasonality observed in non-Rangpur regions. To contain seasonal hunger in greater Rangpur, public policies should promote rural income diversification together with seasonal migration. A flexible microfinance scheme that provides both production and consumption loans on flexible repayment terms could help diversify income and reduce seasonality of income and poverty.     

家庭直接能耗的碳排放影响因素研究进展

家庭能源消费对环境的影响已经成为可持续发展领域热点研究课题之一。为了更好地开展家庭直接能耗的碳排放研究,对国际上近20年的研究进行总结分析,将国际上对家庭直接能耗碳排放影响因素的研究模型归纳为自上而下模型、自下而上模型及综合模型三大类,并对各种模型进行了评价;国际上对家庭直接能耗碳排放影响因素的研究集中于家庭外部环境、家庭特征及家庭成员3个方面。分析表明:家庭直接能耗碳排放影响因素的研究模型由简单走向综合;所用数据由历史统计数据到与微观住户调研数据相结合;研究的层面由国家(地区)、城市、社区向家庭内部全面展开;分析的视角由单一的宏观分析,到宏观与微观分析相结合。在基本反映家庭直接能耗碳排放影响因素研究的最新态势的同时,提出了我国家庭直接能耗碳排放影响因素研究中值得注意的几个问题。     

“家电下乡”政策对农村居民的消费效应检验——基于经验数据的实证分析

＂家电下乡＂政策实行后,农村居民增加了对家电产品的消费。通过分析影响家电下乡产品销售额的影响因素,并通过计量经济模型检验了＂家电下乡＂政策是否促使农村居民消费是否改变。检验结果表明,实行＂家电下乡＂政策后,农民生活消费同比增加了11.69%,但生活消费的收入弹性并没有变化。最后,从四个方面提出了增加农村消费的建议。     

中国纸制品消费趋势:城市化增长的效应分析和预测

基于对近期未来的人口—经济增长的预测,分析了城市化增长对未来纸制品消费的影响。用"自相关误差回归"的方法检验人口和城市化增长的不同发展路径对于纸制品消费的影响。中国的城市化过程对纸制品消费影响很大,更快的城市化进程,相应的影响会更强烈。比较人口变量和经济变量,城市家庭经济因素相对更加明显。在近期的未来,随着纸制品消费的增加,其对环境污染的压力也会增大。     

经济转轨、不确定性与城镇居民消费行为

本文利用中国社会科学院经济研究所收入分配课题组 1 995、1 999及 2 0 0 2年的城镇住户调查数据分析收入不确定性、失业风险、医疗支出不确定性及教育支出等因素对城镇居民消费行为的影响。研究结果表明这些不确定性因素对城镇居民消费水平具有显著的负效应 ,但效应的大小也因这些因素的可预期性的变化而变化。因此增强政策的可预见性、完善社会保障制度等措施对化解居民收支风险将具有重要作用。     

Local financial benefits of rain forests: comparative evidence from Amerindian societies in Bolivia and Honduras

Researchers generally express the local value of tropical rain forests in dollars/ha/year. The approach is problematic because it produces low values to local users, underestimating the importance of the forest expressed as a share of household consumption or earnings. Here we contribute to valuation studies of rain forests by estimating the financial importance of the forest measured in three ways: (1) the contribution of forests to annual household consumption and (2) earnings; and (3) the value of a hectare of rain forest to villagers measured through the biological goods consumed and sold. We collected panel data on consumption and earnings from 81 households in four villages of two Amerindian societies in two nations (Tsimane’, Bolivia; Tawahka, Honduras). Analyses suggest: (1) forests account for a large share of household consumption (median 38.5%; range 14.65–53.11%); (2) forests contribute more to household consumption than to household earnings (median 22.69%; range 16.56–44.81%); (3) the relative contribution of forests to household consumption and earnings falls among villages closer to towns; and (4) the range of values/year of rain forest/ha is US$7.10–9.70 using 1999 dollars or US$18.46–46.56 using purchasing power parity indexes, below previous estimates. Results show much variation in forest values; valuation methods and stakeholder perspectives affect the variation. Given the variation, a useful strategy to promote forest conservation would transfer income to villagers to compensate them for non-local forest values.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION FINANCED BY INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE RESOURCES, IN FRANCE AND ITALY (1959, 1965, 1969)

In this article the authors anticipate some results of a study carried out in France and in Italy, in the framework of a wider research project aiming at analysing in some depth and at comparing the recent trends and patterns of total household consumption in some capitalist and socialist countries. ¹
The accounting scheme used to arrive at a comprehensive definition of household consumption, inclusive of the "non-market" divisible services produced by public administrations, and to identify the share of this new aggregate which is financed by collective resources, isoutlined in the first section. In the second section, the article shows the growing relative importance of publicly-supported consumption, but it also shows that during the sixties, the overall cost of divisible public services and of social benefits provided in kind or in cash was, in both countries, almost entirely auto-financed by the household sector, via social security contributions and taxes levied on that sector's income and consumption. In the third section, comparative analysis of the recent structural evolution of the "market" and the "non-market" shares of total household consumption points out the similarities and dissimilarities between the patterns and forms of private and public spending in the two countries.
The results of this analysis seem to support the thesis that unless a better integration of social policies with economic growth policies is achieved, it will not be possible to implement rational choices between the "market" and the "non-market" ways of satisfying specific population needs. The authors' conclusion is that under present circumstances, public civil expenditures will continue to rise, both in France and in Italy, more rapidly than total national resources and it will become difficult to balance total receipts and total outlays of the public sector.     

经济刺激计划与农村消费启动——基于我国农村居民收入分解的实证分析

文章在对我国农村居民收入构成进行分解的基础上,利用协整等计量工具时影响我国农村居民消费的各种因素进行了量化分析,并由此对照我国政府为应对世界经济危机而出台的一揽子经济刺激计划,分析经济刺激计划中各项具体政策措施在促进农村消费方面的作用.实证分析和政策分析的结果表明:(1)当前对农村居民消费具有显著影响的因素主要是农村居民经营性收入、工资性收入及国家财政农村救济费支出;(2)已出台的经济刺激计划,既有消费价格补贴等短期措施,也有旨在提高农村居民收入、完善农村社会保障、优化农村消费环境的长期性政策,时于促进农村消费具有很强的针对性;(3)未来促进农村居民消费仍需继续着眼于各种长期性政策.国家在加大财政支农力度时,应注重提高农林水事业费以外的支农支出比重;(4)县域经济是启动农村消费的关键.未来的政策着力点可以考虑将启动农村消费与发展县域经济、推动城乡一体化发展相结合.     

Demand for international reserves: a review article

This paper examines the twofold role of the labour market in household economic risk management: as a source of household consumption risk, and as an instrument for insuring consumption against contingencies. It outlines a framework for analysing this twofold role of the labour market, and uses data from the British Household Panel Survey 1991–1996 to explore this empirically. It identifies the relative importance of the labour market, and other factors, in producing changes in the financial situation of individuals. It also implements ‘full insurance’ tests of whether unemployment and other external shocks to the household are correlated with consumption growth. It concludes that labour market factors are a dominant source of change in individuals financial situation, with a predominantly positive effect on the financial situation of the better off, and a predominantly negative impact on the financial situation of the less well off. It also finds that households are unable to fully insure their consumption against unemployment, and that as a result labour market factors pose a significant economic risk.