浅谈中国经济发展方式的转变

中国经济的发展要从理论经济增长方式转变和经济发展方式转变的相关概念去考察,要认清两者之间的关系,只有了解中国经济增长方式和经济发展方式的探索历程,才能寻求实现中国经济发展方式转变的途径.     

论以转变经济发展方式为主线

以加快转变经济发展方式为主线,是适应国际经济环境新变化的迫切需要,是国内经济发展条件变化的客观要求,是现阶段中国经济发展的必然趋势。主线之所以要由经济结构调整转换为经济发展方式转变,其原因主要在于,调整优化经济结构的方式是经济发展方式的重要组成部分,转变经济发展方式包含调整优化经济结构。中国转变经济发展方式主要面临发展条件、发展阶段、制度和观念等方面的困难。需要正确处理经济增长、结构优化、深化改革、维持稳定与方式转变的关系,创造有利条件,促进中国经济发展方式的有效转变。     

试析转变经济发展方式及途径

转变经济发展方式是关系中国发展全局的战略抉择,中国原有的粗放型经济发展方式严重阻碍了中国经济发展质量的提高和现代化建设目标的实现。从加速经济体制改革、推进经济结构调整、加大教育投入、深化国企改革和抑制收入差距等方面论述实现转变的途径。同时还对加速转变应该注意克服问题作以系统论述。     

中国经济增长方式的问题分析及对策建议

合理的经济增长方式是目前中国经济发展的重要课题,从中国经济当前突出的结构矛盾、经济发展的瓶颈及产业结构问题等方面入手分析了中国现行经济发展模式的问题所在,同时阐述了经济增长方式的合理转变对国民经济持续、健康发展的重要意义,提出转变经济增长方式的对策及建议。     

转变经济发展方式的内涵及相关范畴研究

从经济学、发展经济学、统计学、国民经济核算学的角度对发展、经济发展、经济发展方式与转变经济发展方式等内涵进行论述,并与增长、经济增长、经济增长方式、转变经济增长方式等对应范畴进行全方位的辨析。得出结论：转变经济发展方式是与转变经济增长方式相对照的概念,二者既有联系又有区别。转变经济发展方式,既要求从粗放型增长转变为集约型增长,又要求从通常的增长转变为全面、协调、可持续的发展,并最终实现传统经济发展方式向现代经济发展方式的转变。     

从“转变经济增长方式”到“转变经济发展方式”的变迁

党的十七大报告中提出了“转变经济发展方式”这一命题,并且强调转变经济发展方式是实现未来经济发展目标的关键所在。由过去的“转变经济增长方式”到今天的“转变经济发展方式”,仅仅两个字融改变,却标志着我匿长期发展战略的一个重大转变,这一历史性跨越是建国以来尤其是近三十年中国经济高速增长累积的结果。从“转变经济增长方式”到“转变经济发展方式”的变迁入手,结合经济发展的有关理论,可以得出这样的结论：转变经济发展方式是现阶段我国经济发展的必然选择。     

转变经济发展方式提出的历史必然性

经济发展观念的更新是转变经济发展方式提出的思想前提,从经济增长观到可持续发展观,再到科学发展观。观念的变化必然会带来经济发展方式的转变。当前影响中国国民经济未来发展的因素已扩大和涉及到整个国民经济结构的各个方面,因此,解决当前中国经济结构中存在的突出矛盾是转变经济发展方式提出的现实依据。构建社会主义和谐社会是转变经济发展方式提出的社会需要。     

以生态和谐理念为指导 转变中国经济发展方式

生态和谐理念是指导生态与经济发展的新理念,具有丰富的内涵,给经济发展方式的转变提出了新的要求。正确理解生态和谐的实质、把握经济发展方式转变的方向、探究中国经济发展方式转变的途径,对于中国经济的长远发展具有重要意义。     

新时期我国转变经济发展方式的若干思路

新时期,我国单纯转变经济增长方式并不能实现经济科学发展,因此,必须在逐步完成经济增长方式的转变的同时,着力进行经济发展方式的转变。转型时期,转变经济发展方式是走向科学发展的关键,是转变经济发展方式是发展社会主义市场经济的要求,同时,科学发展观是转变经济发展方式的行动指南。转变经济发展方式的切入点要从抓好节能减排工作入手;主要途径是把经济结构进行战略性调整;驱动环节放在科技进步与自主创新;保障措施是通过把转变经济发展方式与完善社会主义市场经济体制相辅相成,相互促进。     

基于技术创新的中国经济发展方式转变研究

技术创新是经济持续发展的重要影响因素。各国政府都积极采取引导和促进技术创新的政策、法律措施,通过技术创新提高经济发展速度、改变经济发展方式。中国长期以资源为依托的传统发展方式对经济和社会的持续发展造成巨大的负面影响。从技术创新的角度出发,对中国传统经济发展方式存在的问题进行深入分析,并探讨技术创新对经济发展方式转变的作用机制,最后为中国经济持续快速发展提出了探索性的创新途径。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.