大渤海圈港口腹地演变的腹地烟羽模型研究

选取大连港、营口港、秦皇岛港、天津港、青岛港、烟台港、丹东港和日照港共八个主要港口作为研究对象,利用腹地烟羽模型对大渤海圈下的港口腹地范围在四个不同时间点进行了细致划分,得出划分结果,分析其演变特征,进而得到大渤海圈下港口腹地的演变趋势:天津港、烟台港的腹地范围将在稳定的基础上出现小幅波动;营口港、日照港、丹东港的腹地范围有望进一步扩大;大连港、秦皇岛港、青岛港的腹地范围可能继续缩小。     

大连港与营口港对于腹地货源的竞争态势分析

大连港作为辽宁最大的港口,其2006年的吞吐量比辽宁其他港口的吞吐量总和还要多。但是,随着东北老工业基地的振兴,对港口需求的不断加大,使距离腹地更近的营口港的发展速度大大超过了大连港,也许在不远的将来,大连港一港独大的局面就会有所改变。本文利用豪泰林模型分析了大连港和营口港对于腹地货源的竞争态势,指出了两个港口之间的竞争存在着盲目性和低效率,最后对国际国内港口合作的案例进行了介绍和分析,并指出了港口合作的效益,提出了应尽快找到合适的方法促进两港合作的建议。     

辽宁省港口物流效率及其与腹地经济协同发展研究

以辽宁省为例,根据港口物流效率指标体系对2001—2009年辽宁省港口物流效率进行分析,结果表明辽宁省港口物流效率较高。通过构建港口物流与腹地经济协同发展指标体系,以2001年为基期计算2002—2009年辽宁省港口物流与腹地经济协同度。分析表明：辽宁省港口物流与腹地经济之间存在协同发展关系,并随时间变化逐渐增加;辽宁省各地级市的均值协同度高于全省总体协同度;沿海地区均值协同度高于内陆地区。研究认为：港口物流效率的提高应该依靠技术进步作为支撑;港口物流与腹地经济之间的协同发展应考虑到地区间的差异,统筹兼顾沿海地区和内陆地区的发展状况。     

东北沿海港口群腹地空间格局及驱动机理

以辽宁沿海港口群—东北腹地为研究对象,在Huff模型基础上,综合考虑港城引力、时间成本因素,分别利用实际最短时间距离和加权时间距离,探究港口群腹地的范围划分问题,并在此基础上进一步划分混合腹地范围。研究结果表明:1营口港凭借时间成本的优势对大连港在东北地区的影响力造成威胁,腹地范围不仅局限在沈阳经济区,而且沿哈大交通线深入到东北腹地。丹东港腹地包括丹东、本溪和通化市,锦州港口腹地包括辽西地区及赤峰和通辽市,盘锦港和葫芦岛港服务于本市。2加权时间距离考虑腹地城市与港口城市的空间吸引作用,大连港腹地范围扩展至吉林、黑龙江大部,营口港腹地缩减。锦州港腹地范围为锦州市、朝阳市、阜新市。丹东港、盘锦港和葫芦岛港腹地范围为所在市。3混合腹地按照两种距离测度都分为三种类型,其中大连港与营口港混合腹地范围最广。归纳演化机理为港口综合能力主导腹地格局、港腹可达水平制约腹地格局、腹地城市综合实力抵消距离衰减。     

加强港口与腹地联系 促进大陆桥区域经济发展

港口与腹地区域之间存在着一种天然的“血缘”关系。港口不仅为腹地提供运输服务,更重要的是对腹地产生强烈的辐射作用,港口利用腹地能够通过陆上交通网络,吸纳和集聚陆向经济能量,又可以通过海上大通道,更容易超越地理的空间界限,大跨度地直接参与国际经济大循环,在世界范围内吸纳和集聚生产力各要素。腹地利用港口运输的优势,可大力发展进出口贸易、加工贸易,促进腹地与世界经济的融合,带动腹地经济的发展,使腹地经济更具生命力。因此,无论是港口自身发展还是腹地自身的发展,都需要需要加强港口与腹地联系。     

宁波—舟山港腹地分析及对发展港口经济的意义

宁波—舟山港处于我国海岸线的中间位置,与上海港合成犄角之势。文章使用港口腹地划分的最小运输成本法分析了不同运输方式下连云港、上海港、宁波—舟山港、福州港在长江中下游地区的腹地划分,确定了宁波—舟山港的腹地。并根据宁波—舟山港口和腹地的特点,提出了港口发展要加强对港口相关产业发展的支持、发展大宗商品交易市场和加强内陆港服务建设、扩大港口腹地的政策建议。     

基于铁路距离的环渤海铁矿石中转港腹地划分

选取港口硬件水平、港口矿石吞吐量、港口城市发展水平和港口矿石转运潜力等一级指标,使用因子分析法对各港口的铁矿石转运影响力进行了评价,根据铁路路网使用Arc GIS计算了环渤海三省两市各县区与最近港口之间的铁路距离及其对应的距离摩擦系数,最后根据哈夫模型分析了各港口的腹地范围划分和影响势能空间分布格局。从铁矿石转运方面看,铁矿石转运主要集中于青岛、日照、唐山和天津四港;从铁矿石转运角度划分出各港口的腹地中天津港腹地面积最大,营口港和青岛港的次之,日照港和唐山港的较小,而大连港的最小。从各港口影响势能的空间分布格局来看,环渤海三省两市可以划分为"极强区"、"较强区"、"中等区"和"较弱区"四类,其中"极强区"和"较强区"两类区域共74个县区约10.97万km2的范围内较为适宜钢铁生产企业布局。本文的研究为环渤海主要港口和钢铁产业发展的合理规划以及钢铁生产企业的空间布局优化提供了理论依据和参考。     

论港口与腹地经济一体化的几个理论问题

“港口—腹地”区域实质上是一个具有内在必然联系的特殊的经济地域系统,其运动发展的具体实践从客观上要求港口与腹地要有高度的协同性、整合度和一体化。在经济全球化和对外开放与对外联系已经成为区域经济发展重要前提的今天,这种要求就显得格外突出和迫切。相关的具体实践需要有相应的基本理论为指导,否则就会成为非理性或低效性甚至是负效应的盲目实践。为此,对港口—腹地区域经济一体化有关理论问题的分析探讨就有着重要的理论意义和实践指导意义,文章探讨了港口—腹地区域经济一体化的理论依据、动力机制以及港口—腹地经济地域系统运动发展的一般演化规律等基本理论问题。     

港口与腹地经济关系研究——以宁波港为例

以宁波港为例,首先选取宁波、杭州、温州3个腹地城市进行分析,以集装箱吞吐量和直接腹地综合工业总产值两个指标来研究港口与腹地经济的关系。综合工业总产值是由这3个城市的工业总产值的加权和计算而得,权重由相对引力模型确定。实证分析表明,港口与腹地经济之间存在着长期稳定的关系,且在10%的显著性水平下,它们互为格兰杰原因。脉冲响应分析表明,腹地经济的增长对港口的发展存在着不太明显的正向推动效应,而港口的发展则对腹地经济增长存在着很明显的正向拉动效应。最后根据研究结果对港口与腹地经济互动发展提出了政策建议。     

东北地区沿海经济带与腹地海陆产业联动发展

沿海地区与内陆腹地的海陆产业联动发展是沿海-腹地系统良性发展的核心,在东北地区尤其如此.文章首先从资源、经济、就业及环境方面,利用相关分析、演变过程分析、弹性分析等定量分析方法,探讨了东北沿海经济带与腹地海陆产业联动的动力机制.在此基础上,运用灰色关联度方法分析了东北地区沿海经济带海洋产业与内陆腹地各产业的疏密度,进而探究海陆联动发展的内部驱动力与海陆产业链的构造,为东北沿海地区与内陆腹地的统筹发展提供科学依据和发展建议.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.     

Duplication, Growth and ‘Total Return Economics’

Maintenance consumption is an expense recovered in product prices, yet also a source of taste satisfaction which must be exhausted, rather than reinvested, from the capital affording it. This riddle is solved in the duplication rules: the cost of maintenance consumption is recovered in pay and prices, but an equal flow is exhausted from the human capital of the worker earning the pay. The rules impact tradition in several ways. If output is defined in principle as value added, then it cannot also be described as consumption plus net investment without double-counting the maintenance consumption recovered in prices. Also rate of return in the stationary state is not zero, but is the rate sufficient to offset the exhaustion of individual human capital. The rules lead to new insights into economic return, and support an argument that all growth at the scale of closure is due to productivity gain rather than to thrift.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Simulating the Effect of Regulatory Systems in a Fishery, An Application to the French Driftnet Albacore Fleet

With a thin economic component, most bio-economic models of fisheries failto assess the effects of the regulation systems on firms. In order to analysethe short term consequences of different management schemes, a simulationmodel is applied to the French driftnet albacore fleet: licence allocation withdriftnet regulation, individual quotas, and individual transferable quotaswithout any input control. Vessel technology is estimated by using the datacollected, and groups of vessels are distinguished according to criteria ofperformance. We present the adjustment within firms and between groupsunder different scenarios (limited entry with and without driftnetregulation, individual quotas and individual transferable quotas allocation),and we compare their results in terms of quasi-rent value and otherindicators such as hake harvests or dolphin by-catches.     

Knowledge as a Path-Dependence Process

By following a new approach proposed by Cognitive and Neuroeconomics, this paper presents and extends that part of Hayek's theory concerning knowledge in path-dependent terms, and shows that this is a fertile theory, opening new lines of inquiry for contemporary economics. In his theory of knowledge Hayek shows that the dynamics of economic change is path-dependent, in a different and more profound way than in the rest of the path-dependent literature. This literature deals with an important controversy, which will be also discussed and its specific and original meaning will be highlighted. As it will emerge, knowledge as a path-dependent process is consistent with cognitive theories of perception and learning and it plays a more important role than is traditionally assumed. Path-dependence is in fact always present in the cognitive dimension of perception and in individual decision-making processes, as well as in the processes of organizational innovation, and even in the macro-dimension of institutional change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.