战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合发展研究

战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合发展,是加快现代产业体系建设、提高国际竞争力、实现经济转型的最佳路径。构建了战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合度评价模型,并以广东省电子信息产业与纺织业为例进行了实证研究。结果发现,广东省电子信息产业与纺织业具有较强的耦合关系,两者处于良好协调发展阶段。因此,应加强广东省电子信息产业与纺织业耦合效应的扩散作用和带动作用,为其它战略性新兴产业和传统产业的耦合发展提供支持和引导。     

战略性新兴产业发展评价研究

战略性新兴产业是引导未来经济社会发展的重要力量。从产业融合的角度界定了战略性新兴产业的内涵,在此基础上,结合波特钻石理论,构建以产业资源潜力、产业联动效应、产业需求能力和产业竞争能力为一级指标的战略性新兴产业发展评价模型。利用江苏省镇江市企业问卷调查数据,通过因子分析和结构方程模型等方法实证评价了战略性新兴产业的发展状况,研究结果符合镇江市战略性新兴产业发展的实际情况。     

基于熵权法的战略性新兴产业识别和选择——以LED、IPV6、太阳能电池三产业为例的实证研究

在对战略性新兴产业的定义、内涵和特征进行分析的基础上,依据战略性新兴产业的特征———战略性、新兴性和带动性来构建战略性新兴产业评价指标体系,并利用熵权法对各评价指标进行赋权,建立战略性新兴产业综合评价模型。以LED、IPV6、太阳能电池三产业为例,对其进行实证分析。最后,提出我国在培育和发展战略性新兴产业时需要重点关注的问题。     

低碳经济下区域战略性新兴产业评价与选择

低碳经济的发展催生了战略性新兴产业,而战略性新兴产业的发展又使得低碳经济成为可能.同时,战略性新兴产业对于地区产业结构优化升级和转变经济增长方式有重要作用.文章在阐述低碳经济和战略性新兴产业的内涵的基础上,深入探讨低碳经济下区域战略性新兴产业选择的评价指标体系,采用Weaver-Thomas和层次分析法建立评价模型,并进行了实证分析.     

合肥市战略性新兴产业研发投入与产出现状及效率分析

界定了合肥市战略性新兴产业的统计范围,并基于2009年第二次全国R&D清查的合肥数据,对合肥市战略性新兴产业的研发投入与产出现状进行评价。同时,利用DEA模型对合肥市战略性新兴产业的研发投入产出效率进行分析。最后,提出了有针对性的对策建议。     

战略性新兴产业知识产权能力研究述评

战略性新兴产业知识产权能力建设将是推动我国实现创新驱动发展、建设创新型国家的主要动力。结合知识产权能力理论研究成果,对战略性新兴产业知识产权能力内涵、内容、评价模型与方法的研究进行了梳理并做评述,指出战略性新兴产业知识产权能力研究中存在的不足及研究趋势。     

战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合发展研究

本文分析了我国目前战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合发展在时间上和空间上的逻辑结构;在此基础上,构建了战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合发展的评价模型,具体包括耦合评价指标体系、耦合关联度模型和持续发展模型;最后,运用该模型对环保产业和橡胶制造产业进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,我国环保产业和橡胶制造产业处于中度耦合、轻度衰退发展型状态,在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。     

战略性新兴产业中核心企业商业模式评价实证研究

战略性新兴产业发展最关键的是核心企业的带动和升级,商业模式作为连接技术及其经济价值的桥梁备受关注,当战略性新兴产业中核心企业负载环境发生变化时,必须不断评价自身商业模式的优劣。如何有效评价商业模式成为学术界和企业界关注的焦点。对前人相关研究成果进行梳理,对战略性新兴产业中核心企业商业模式特点进行分析,提出了一套基于宏微观价值7个维度以及31个测度变量的战略性新兴产业核心企业商业模式评价指标体系,运用219份战略性新兴产业核心企业的样本数据进行了结构方程模型验证,最后提出了未来研究方向。     

基于主成分分析法的我国海洋战略性新兴产业选择的实证研究

海洋战略性新兴产业成为不少地区和国家抢占的战略制高点。海洋战略性新兴产业对优化海洋产业结构、提升海洋产业竞争力具有重要作用。在主导产业选择理论基础上,利用钻石模型,综合考虑海洋战略性新兴产业的特征,提出海洋战略性新兴产业的选择基准,构建了海洋战略性新兴产业的选择评价指标体系。最后,结合我国海洋产业统计数据,使用主成分分析法对我国海洋战略性新兴产业选择问题进行实证分析。定量分析与定性分析的结果表明:我国应当选择海洋油气业、海洋电力业和海水利用业、海洋生物医药业、滨海旅游业、海洋交通运输业、海洋船舶工业和海洋工程装备制造业作为海洋战略性新兴产业。     

合肥市战略性新兴产业研发投入与产出现状及效率分析

界定了合肥市战略性新兴产业的统计范围,并基于2009年第二次全国R&D清查的合肥数据,对合肥市战略性新兴产业的研发投入与产出现状进行评价.同时,利用DEA模型对合肥市战略性新兴产业的研发投入产出效率进行分析.最后,提出了有针对性的对策建议.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.