ENTREPRENEURIAL OPTIMISM AND THE MARKET FOR NEW ISSUES

This article analyzes the impact of entrepreneurial optimism on the market for new issues. We find that the existence of optimists generates a new reason for entrepreneurs to own equity in their firms. We show that optimism is a natural explanation for why some new issues are underpriced and others overpriced. We also show that the impact of optimism on entrepreneurs' equity holdings depends on the number of optimists, absolute risk aversion, and cash flow variance. Optimism makes entrepreneurs worse off. In contrast, optimism can make outside investors better off when entrepreneurs signal firm value by retaining shares and underpricing.     

Regulation and the optimal size and type of abortion provider

This paper examines the changes in the size distribution of firms in the abortion services market between 1978 and 1992 in the US. The results indicate that for the entire 15-year period, the market shares of large abortion providers were increasing in both restrictive and nonrestrictive states. Also clinics and physician offices appear to be gaining market share relative to hospitals. These increasing market shares could be due to many factors, such as changes in the technology of providing abortions on an outpatient basis and changes in the relative prices of abortions in hospitals and abortions in non-hospital settings. Furthermore, this paper includes an analysis of the impact of state-level Medicaid funding regulations on the number, size, and type of abortion provider. These results have important implications for women's access to abortion services and for infant and maternal health.     

An empirical analysis of the Shanghai and Shenzhen limit order books

This paper investigates the market microstructure of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. The two major Chinese stock markets are pure order-driven trading mechanisms without market makers, and we analyze empirically both limit order books. We begin our empirical modeling using the vector autoregressive model of Hasbrouck and extend the model to incorporate other information in the limit order book. We also study the market impact on A shares, B shares and H shares, and analyze how the market impact of stocks varies cross sectionally with market capitalization, tick frequencies, and turnover. Furthermore, we find that market impact is increasing in trade size. Order imbalances predict the next day's returns, with small order imbalances having a negative effect.     

股权分置改革改善了公司现金分红吗——基于A股制造业数据的检验

本文基于股权分置改革前后各年度A股制造业上市公司的数据,实证检验了“股权分置改革”对上市公司现金分红行为的影响。研究发现,股权分置改革前后各年度上市公司现金分红有显著差异,但是,短期来看,股权分置改革对于上市公司现金分红的影响并不显著;长期来看,股权分置改革对上市公司分红水平及分红比率均有显著影响。因此,我国资本市场股权分置改革的完成及股份全流通的实现对于上市公司现金分红的改善及投资者利益的保护具有积极意义。     

现金股利政策:控制权人挖掘利益侵占"隧道"的工具

传统经典的股利理论都把现金股利政策看做实现股东价值最大化的工具，并通过市场的反应对其进行检验。但是，它们都忽略了公司的“法律”性和控制权对现金股利政策的影响。现金股利政策是公司“法律”之一，它是控制权人意志的体现，渗透着控制权人的利益倾向，现金股利政策可能成为公司控制权人利益侵占“隧道”的挖掘工具。控制权人利用现金股利挖掘利煎侵占“隧道”可能有三种情况：经营者对股东利益侵占“隧道”的挖掘、大股东对小股东利益侵占“隧道”的挖掘、公司对债权入利益侵占“隧道”的挖掘。在我国还存在着一种特殊的利益侵占“隧道”——非流通股股东对流通股股东利益侵占的“隧道”。     

Financial Bubbles: Excess Cash,Momentum, and Incomplete Information

We report on a large number of laboratory market experiments demonstrating that a market bubble can be reduced under the following conditions: 1) a low initial liquidity level, i.e., less total cash than value of total shares, 2) deferred dividends, and 3) a bid-ask book that is open to traders. Conversely, a large bubble arises when the opposite conditions exist. The first part of the article is comprised of twenty-five experiments with varying levels of total cash endowment per share (liquidity level), payment or deferral of dividends and an open or closed bid-ask book. We find that the liquidity level has a very strong influence on the mean and maximum prices during an experiment (P < 1/10,000). These results suggest that within the framework of the classical bubble experiments (dividends distributed after each period and closed book), each dollar per share of additional cash results in a maximum price that is $1 per share higher. There is also limited statistical support for the theory that deferred dividends (which also lower the cash per share during much of the experiment) and an open book lead to a reduced bubble. The three factors taken together show a striking difference in the median magnitude of the bubble ($7.30 versus $0.22 for the maximum deviation from fundamental value). Another set of twelve experiments features a single dividend at the end of fifteen trading periods and establishes a 0.8 correlation between price and liquidity during the early periods of the experiments. As a result, calibration of prices and evolution toward equilibrium price as a function of liquidity are possible.     

“大小非解禁”对我国A股上市企业股价的影响

本文从理论和实证两方面研究"大小非解禁"对我国A股市场的负面影响及影响程度。结果发现:"大小非解禁"上市公司的股价在公告日具有显著的负异常收益表现,其市场负异常收益与企业业绩相关度不大,与流通盘大小无关;解禁时其市场负异常收益与解禁比例、市场预期表现显著负相关,与换手率、企业每股净资产显著正相关,与市净率、企业当季每股收益没有表现出显著的相关性。据此,本文提出一些研究建议和对策。     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下企业现金持有的预防价值研究

最近爆发的新冠肺炎疫情牵动着亿万民众的心,面对突如其来的疫情,企业资金面临着巨大压力。企业持有现金主要源于预防和交易动机,然而预防动机的特性决定了其在企业正常经营状态下难以直观体现,因而目前鲜有研究对企业现金持有的预防价值进行直接检验。本文以新冠肺炎疫情事件的冲击为研究切入点,通过考察不同现金持有水平的企业在面临危机冲击的市场反应,发现企业现金持有水平与事件窗口期内的累计超额收益率呈显著正相关关系,从而为现金持有的预防价值提供了更为直接的经验证据。而且,当公司受疫情冲击程度越大时,二者之间正相关关系越强。进一步发现,企业现金持有的预防价值在企业现金流压力大以及外部融资环境较差时更加凸显。本研究丰富了已有关于现金持有预防价值的相关文献,并对政府与企业应采取何种举措以应对突发事件具有一定的启示。     

What drives inequality and poverty in the EU? Exploring the impact of macroeconomic and institutional factors

Employing panel data techniques, we investigate the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of inequality and poverty in the EU over the period 1994–2008. We pay particular attention to the effects of macroeconomic environment, social protection and labour market institutions. The empirical analysis shows that the social transfers in cash, and principally the transfers that do not include pensions, exert a prominent impact on inequality and poverty. Also significant is the effect of the GDP per capita. The impact of employment on inequality and poverty is not empirically sound. The same holds for the labour market institutions; an exception is the union density, which appears conducive to a less dispersed personal income distribution. Importantly, the results support the view that the social protection system acts as a catalyst in determining the effectiveness of social spending and the distributive role of economic growth and employment.     

并购重组中大股东补偿承诺与中小股东权益保护——基于苏宁环球与世荣兆业的比较案例研究

我们对2007年以来并购重组中大股东盈利补偿的统计发现,补偿方式主要有两种:现金补偿和股份回购(或赠送股份)补偿,而且具有明显的时间特征,即2009年11月之前均采用现金补偿方案,之后基本上采用了股份回购(或赠送股份)的补偿方案。在此基础上,通过上市公司和大股东两个层面分析出两种补偿方案均在一定程度上保护了中小股东的权益,其中,股份回购方案比现金补偿方案更能改善上市公司财务状况和经营业绩,同时更能制约大股东在并购重组活动中对过高评估或过高盈利预测的冲动,因而更能保护中小股东权益。     

B股向境内居民开放对A、B股市场分割的影响

从信息流动的角度 ,研究了B股向境内居民开放前后的A、B股两个市场之间的分割程度 ,并与同期的A股和H股市场的分割程度作比较。实证结果显示 ,在B股向境内居民开放之前 ,A、B股市场之间基本上处于完全分割状态 ,而开放之后两个市场趋于半分割状态 ;A股和H股之间一直处于完全分割状态。研究结论表明 ,投资主体的不同是造成A、B股市场分割的关键因素 ,B股向境内居民开放一定程度上缓和了两个市场的分割局面 ,但离一体化还有相当差距。     

Market Share, Market Value and Innovation in a Panel of British Manufacturing Firms

This paper examines the empirical relationship between technological innovations, market share and stock market value. New developments in the estimation of dynamic count data models are used to control for unobserved firm specific heterogeneity. We find a robust and positive effect of market share on observable headcounts of innovations and patents although increased product market competition in the industry tends to stimulate innovative activity. Furthermore, the impact of innovation on market value is larger for firms with higher market shares. We argue that our results are consistent with models where high market share firms have incentives to pre-emptively innovate.     

大宗股权定价的实证检验

本文结合现有金融理论,研究大宗股权的定价问题。大宗股权的重要特征是其具有控制权收益,同时由于交易规则的限制,它往往带有流动性约束。大宗股权的这些特征是散股所不具备的,因此也将在定价中反映出来。本文将二者的影响在一个统一的框架下进行分析,并对其做了定量的估计。通过对2002和2003年间我国上市公司协议转让的233笔非流通股的研究,本文发现:流动性约束对非流通股定价有负面作用,而控制权收益对非流通股定价有正面作用。     

Herding by foreign investors and emerging market equity returns: Evidence from Korea

This paper studies the effect of herding by foreign investors on stock returns in the Korean market. We conduct both pre and post-liberalization analyses and utilize a three-stage least squares analysis in order to control for the simultaneous relationship. We find evidence of a significant impact of foreign investor herding on stock returns in addition to intra-year positive feedback trading by foreign investors. However, changes in domestic institutional ownership do not have any significant effect on stock returns. In addition, foreign investors tend to buy/sell shares that domestic institutions sell/buy in the herding year.     

制度背景、股权性质与公司持有现金价值

本文借鉴Fama和French(1998)经典企业价值回归模型的思想,实证分析了我国上市公司持有现金的市场价值。结果表明,就我国上市公司整体而言,公司持有现金的价值小于账面价值。进一步研究表明,公司持有现金的价值受公司股权性质的影响,公司的国有股权性质降低了公司持有现金的价值。本文从公司持有现金价值的视角进一步说明我国投资者法律保护程度偏低,上市公司中代理问题严重,也为我国上市公司的自由现金流假说与掏空行为提供了证据。     

The Impact of Monetary Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets: An Insight into Cash Rate Target Announcements

This paper investigates the impact of unanticipated Australian monetary policy changes on AUD/USD exchange rate futures, and 3‐year and 10‐year Australian Treasury bond futures, during the period from January 1997 to April 2010. Our study contributes to the literature by using both the 30‐day and the 90‐day bank accepted bill (BAB) rates to disentangle the unexpected surprise component of monetary policy changes from overall cash rate target changes in the Australian money market, and by concurrently modelling the effects of monetary surprises and other key macroeconomic announcements in Australia. The empirical results suggest that the 30‐day BAB rate is the best proxy for the expected monetary policy actions. We find that the effect of monetary surprises on the volatility of the 3‐ and 10‐year bond future instruments is significant and persistent. We have also documented a strong monetary policy effect on the mean returns of the exchange rate futures, indicating that unexpected monetary policy adjustments have a significant impact on the level of the exchange rate movements rather than on the volatility of the FX futures market.     

大小非解禁的市场反应

本文利用事件研究方法,研究截止2010年3月31日解禁的大小非样本对二级市场股票价格的影响。结果表明,大小非解禁对市场产生了显著负面影响。在此基础上,对大小非样本进行了分类研究,发现大小非解禁后真正对二级市场产生的实质性冲击主要集中在高估值、非控股股东和自由减持三类样本,而在解禁前中低估值、控股股东和大宗交易减持三类大小非样本对二级市场存在一定的心理冲击,但幅度有限,且在解禁后市场对解禁前的心理冲击有一定的矫正。另外,值得注意的是,高估值和非控股股东两类大小非样本在解禁前存在明显人为拉高股价的操纵迹象。