影响美国对华贸易政策的利益集团

在美国的政治经济生活中，存在着数万个性质各异、规模不等、类型不同的利益集团。这些利益集团活跃在美国的政治、经济、社会、文化等各个领域，并对美国社会的这些领域产生了程度不同的影响。让中国人感觉最直接的，是他们在对华贸易决策中所产生的强烈影响。     

集体行动、政治竞争与发展的障碍——基于新政治经济学的视角

本文在无限期界、内生化政治竞争中考察了经济发展条件的改善使利益集团面临权衡的思想:既提高利益集团掌握政治权力时的收益,也可能降低其掌权概率;刻画了利益集团阻止经济发展条件改善的条件。分析表明:(1)无论经济发展条件是否得到改善,利益集团都会增大对政治权力投资,导致经济绩效下降;(2)经济增长与利益集团面临的政治挑战同向变化;(3)社会不稳定和劳动密集型经济会强化利益集团阻止经济发展条件的改善的动力。最后是相关改革建议和未来研究方向。     

利益集团规制理论的演进

利益集团规制理论是当代西方规制经济学的一个重要分支,它是在对公共利益规制理论质疑和批判的基础上,在“寻求规制政策的政治原因”的研究主题下产生和发展起来的。迄今已经历了规制俘获理论、规制经济理论、新规制经济理论、内生规制变迁理论、利益集团政治的委托—代理理论的演进。本文试图对利益集团规制理论的这些分支理论加以述评,以挖掘其演进的内在逻辑,并对利益集团规制理论的“革命”与“扬弃”式演进做出评论。     

经济学视野中的利益集团

利益集团的产生缘于社会分工引起的社会结构的变化。一国的各种利益集团形成后对该国的经济政策制定、制度变迁以及经济社会发展都会产生深刻而重大的影响。对利益集团的控制不能用消除它的办法来进行,而只能通过减少政府对经济的干预、均衡发展各利益集团、增强立法和行政的透明度等措施来减少利益集团产生的不利影响。     

西方利益集团理论的考察与反思

作为西方资产阶级民主制度产物的利益集团在反映和体现集团利益、影响国家政策制订和政治发展等方面越来越显示出不可低估的作用。与此相应,关于利益集团的一系列问题已进入学者们的研究视野。考察西方利益集团理论研究所关注的利益集团含义的界定、利益集团的价值判断及在国家政治生活中发挥的作用等问题,从而为中国利益集团的发展及与国家、政府的良性互动提供一种理论参考。     

论我国农民利益集团的缺失

利益集团在西方发达国家的政治、经济、社会生活中发挥着重要的作用。我国近些年来也出现了一些利益集团,但是,我国最大的群体农民却没有形成自己的利益集团。究其原因在于我国农民人数太多以及集团组织者的匮乏。农民利益集团的缺失使社会矛盾不断地积累,对农民和国家都不利。国家应成立专门保护农民利益的组织或部门,引导农民成立自己的组织,提高农民的政治地位。     

中国石油战略布下西线棋子

地缘政治力量与经济利益集团反复进行较量,中国与俄罗斯的石油合作变化莫测。最近所有的猜测有了一个初步的结果。从俄罗斯传来消息,俄方选择了“折中方案”。 所谓的“折中方案”,就是将原“中俄方案”——安加尔斯克—大庆输油管道,和“远东方案”——安加尔斯克—纳霍德卡石油管道的两条线变成一条线,建成一条有     

政治权力、经济权力与中立政府的经济制度选择

中立政府在选择经济制度时追求经济增长和政治稳定的双重目标,利益集团为了增加在社会总产出中的份额凭借经济权力和政治权力影响政府的选择。通过分析由政府和两个利益集团构成的博弈模型可以证明:经济制度的变革是政治权力、经济权力、变革成本复杂组合的结果,因而无法保证每一次制度变迁的效率。通过数值模拟多期制度变迁过程可以证明:短期内有效率的制度变革在长期来看也可能是无效率的。为了保证经济活动的长期效率,需要根据财富分配状况及时调整经济制度,这就要求减少政治权力与经济资源的相关性,增加不同备选制度之间的连续性。文章还概略模拟了我国改革开放以来的经济制度变迁过程并进行了外推预测,提出了相关的建议。     

浅析英国利益集团的类型、功能和影响——西方发达国家利益集团问题研究之二

利益集团问题是一个需要经济学、政治学和法学三个学科领域共同研究的课题,文章主要讨论英国利益集团的类型、功能及其影响。英国的利益集团有着很悠久的发展历史,现在数量已经发展到6 800多个。按照两种不同的理论依据,对英国利益集团的类型、种类进行了分析。同时,对利益集团在英国政治经济社会中所发挥的功能及其在不同互动途径中,所产生的影响做一简要阐述与分析。进而对我们更多地了解和认识英国利益集团,有着重要的指导意义。     

对外经济政策的国内政治影响因素——国际政治经济学的视角

作为西方主流经济学的国际经济学,忽视了国内政治因素尤其是政治制度在对外经济政策中的重要作用。国际政治经济学作为一门新兴学科,将政治因素纳入了经济学的分析框架,从政治与经济相互结合的视角探讨影响对外经济政策的因素。在实行代议民主制的国家,作为政治制度主要行为体的利益集团和左右翼政党的政策偏好,以及不同的民主模式,对贸易政策、汇率政策和资本流动政策的选择都具有十分重要的影响。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.