关于公有经济收入差别倒U理论的讨论与验证(下)

(续2012年第2期)五、关于两部门及其转换影响收入差别的讨论除了重视劳动差别、劳动供求和剩余/生计比等制约公有制经济中收入差别的主要因素之外,在中国这样一个典型的二元经济中,公有经济收入差别倒U理论也特别强调二元结构转换对居民收入差别的影响。这似乎也存在疑问。有人说,"库氏倒U"理论不也     

倒U曲线的“阶梯形”变异

<正> 随着公有经济从低收入阶段向高收入阶段的发展,收入分配差别将呈现为先上升后下降的长期趋势,此即倒U理论模型(陈宗胜,1991)。本文先对倒U曲线进行数学论证;然后将体制改革与制度创新引入分析,论证“阶梯形”收入差别曲线。 一、倒U曲线的数学证明 笔者对公有经济条件下的收入差别倒U曲线的阐释,主要是通过揭示这样一些变量关系而进行的:劳动差别、劳动供求、剩余—生计比、两部门结构转换等。(陈宗胜,1991)其中前几个因素同收入差别的关系都是单调正相关的,对这些关系的检验主要是经验问题;最后一个因素     

中国居民收入差距的变动趋势——基于双二元动态框架的实证

为揭示城乡转换和经济开放双重约束下中国居民收入差距变动的总体趋势和特征,文章构建了一个四部门的双二元动态分析框架,并检验了其现实适用性,实证结果较好地支持了这一分析框架的有效性,研究表明:巨大城乡差距的存在决定了我国居民收入分配总体上仍将呈现出“倒U”趋势,而对外经济开放则会显著影响到这一过程的实现形式;从根本上看,重新审视二元结构政策,消除收入分配的平均主义倾向,进一步加快城镇化进程、逐步有序地推动对外开放构成了优化我国收入分配结构、逐步缩小居民收入差距的基本约束。     

从倒U曲线看我国居民收入差距的长期变动趋势

库氏与陈氏倒U曲线分别反映了私有经济和公有经济条件下居民收入差距变动的长期规律,而邓小平同志的共同富裕观也可以用倒U型的收入差距曲线加以描述。在承认倒U假说的前提下,通过对相关因素的具体分析,得出我国居民收入差距在未来将呈现继续扩大态势的结论。     

居民收入分配不平等对经济增长影响的定量分析

通过运用简便算法测算1981～2005年中国城市基尼系数和农村基尼系数,并采用城乡加权法计算全国基尼系数,研究结果表明,中国居民收入的基尼系数呈现出逐年增大的趋势,已经接近基尼系数0．4的国际警戒线,居民收入“两极分化”的趋势愈来愈明显。同时对基尼系数与经济增长关系进行回归分析,证明收入分配不平等对经济增长的影响符合库兹涅茨的“倒U假说理论”。     

经济增长、金融资源分布与居民收入分配结构分析

Kuznets提出了关于收入分配与经济增长的倒U型假说，对改革以来我国经济运行中居民收入分配状况与经济增长关系的分析发现，由于经济中显著的二元经济结构，我国金融资源的分布也存在非均衡性：经济发达区域占有较多的金融资源，而经济落后区域的金融资源则相对较少。对数据的分析显示，我国居民的收入分配结构与金融资源分布结构密切相关，占有金融资源较多的发达经济区域，衡量其居民收入分配的基尼系数较低，金融发展对其居民收入分配不平等性的影响力较弱．而金融资源分布较少的经济欠发达区域基尼系数较高，金融发展水平的提高对居民收入分配不平等的影响力反而较大。缩小居民收入分配的差距需要从调节金融资源分布和二元经济结构等方面入手。     

经济增长过程中收入差距与社会保障制度

经济学家库兹涅茨(Kunznets)在1995年对美国经济协会的演讲中首次提出了著名的收入分配差别倒U理论，即“收入分配不平等的长期趋势为：在前期工业文明向后工业文明过渡的经济增长早期阶段迅速扩大，尔后是短暂的稳定，然后在经济增长的后期阶段逐渐缩小”。     

城乡转换、经济开放与收入分配的变动趋势--理论假说与双二元动态框架

居民收入分配的变动趋势要受到城乡转换和经济开放的双重约束,而已有研究局限在发展经济学和国际贸易学两个不同的分析框架中,由此影响到其现实解释能力。文章结合二元经济和国际贸易价值增值理论,提出了两个理论假说,并在此基础上构建了一个包含三条劳动力转移路线的四部门、双二元动态分析框架,新分析框架将可以更全面地解释双重约束下居民收入分配的实际变动趋势,并具有更强的现实兼容性,从而丰富和发展了Kuznets“倒U”假说。     

我国收入分配与经济增长的动态关系判断

研究表明,收入分配与经济增长之间存在长期均衡的协整关系。随着经济的增长,收入分配差距经历了扩大—缓和—下降的倒U型关系,但是否存在因果关系还需结合我国经济发展的实际作进一步分析。同时,居民消费与经济增长之间存在互为因果的双向关系,而居民消费水平受到居民收入水平、收入分配差距、社会保障等因素的影响。为保持我国经济的持续健康发展,调节收入分配,缩减居民之间、地区之间收入差距是政策的着力点所在。     

经济增长与收入分配关系的实证分析

随着我国经济的高速增长,社会收入分配差距也开始拉大。实证研究显示,关于收入分配的库兹涅茨倒U曲线在我国是存在的,从基尼系数上看在2006年出现了一个小的拐点。若不继续实施有力的措施巩固这一成果,居民收入分配差距还会反弹,库兹涅茨倒U曲线可能会再次上扬。为此应采取相应的对策。     

Ownership and earnings inequality in urban China

Along with advances in urban state-owned enterprise reform, fast growth of private sector and changes in the wage structure, earnings inequality in urban China has been increasing. Using data from the 1988 and 2007 waves of the urban household survey conducted by China Household Income Project, this paper attempts to examine the impact of the change in ownership structure on earnings distribution in urban China. We find that developing non-state-owned enterprises (nonSOEs) or privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) enlarge earnings inequality, but the difference in earnings level between the two sectors is small. Although workers in SOEs receive higher income than in nonSOEs, the difference is more caused by endowment difference rather than coefficient differences. Introducing market power to wage determination system is more influential to the rising earnings inequality which leads more rewards on working experience and educational attainment.     

中国劳动力市场结构与 农村剩余劳动力转移

中国劳动力市场的特殊结构对农村剩余劳动力转移有重要影响。本文通过吸收二元制劳动力市场分割理论的基本假设和对制度变量的讨论,建立了中国农村剩余劳动力转移的“二元市场与二元劳动力”模型,并用以解释中国农村剩余劳动力转移的特点。本文认为,政府的强制性制度障碍导致“S型的人力资本投资曲线”的产生,从而使城市居民在主要劳动力市场具有政策和人力资本优势;作为对福利制度缺失的替代,“隐形补贴”等诱致性制度创新导致农村剩余劳动力在次要劳动力市场具有成本优势。这一模型对于我国农村剩余劳动力迁移中的特殊现象有较好的解释力,对于我国城市化战略和我国一元劳动力市场的形成有重要的理论意义。     

外包与工资差距:基于工业行业数据的实证研究

笔者以Feenstra等人的三要素模型为基础,分析了国际外包影响发达国家及发展中国家熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间工资差距的理论机制,运用我国工业行业面板数据,实证检验了外包对我国工业行业总体及分部门工资差距的影响。结果表明:外包和技术进步对我国工业行业熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间工资差距的扩大均存在明显的正效应,但外包对劳动力资源密集型部门和中等技术部门的影响效应相对更强。     

逆向第三财政与收入分配不公

第三财政指的是政府通过支配国有经济利润而形成的财力分配活动。近年来我国国有企业利润节节高升,甚至国际金融危机也不能放缓其步伐。本文构建了一个上游国有企业寡头垄断,下游私营企业完全竞争的市场模型,证明国有企业在很大程度上攫取了下游私营企业的创新红利,它们的高额利润来自于垄断地位。由于目前第三财政的收入几乎完全由体制内人群享有,故伴随而来的是体制内外人员收入差距的不断扩大,而工业化进程和足量农村劳动力供给带来的低工资,是我国劳动者报酬占GDP比重持续下降的重要原因。在当前体制下,不断膨胀的第三财政本身成为了恶化收入分配不公状况的一个原因,是一种逆向的财政机制,应该从支出入手进行调节。     

不能离开生产关系探讨分配问题--关于分配问题的一些看法

分配是人与人之间的经济关系。在社会主义初级阶段,总起来看,按劳分配为主、按劳分配与按要素分配相结合的分配方式是惟一公平的。我们应该正确认识和处理分配过程中出现的剥削和两极分化现象并最终要以消灭它为目标,当然这要随着条件的成熟逐步实现,而且还是一个十分漫长的历史过程。但是,这不等于理论教育中可以回避剥削和两极分化问题。     

Financialization of the Economy and Income Inequality in China

The income gap between the financial sector and other sectors has been widening since the mid-1990s. Why do financiers in China earn more than others? We analyze this issue against the background of financialization of the economy. The year 1993 was a watershed year, in which China began the process of rapid financialization. Since 1993, the financial sector has become increasingly powerful, overshadowing other sectors. Evidence shows that the high income levels that exist in the financial sector are related to this process of financialization in China. Financialization influences income distribution in China through two channels: money issuance and liquidation of social capital. The labor market equilibrium of the financial sector and wage level determination are not naturally formed but constructed. The increasing income inequality between the financial sector and other sectors is a consequence of financialization of the economy in China.     

Competition between private and public schools: testing stratification and pricing predictions

When there are peer effects in education, private schools have an incentive to vary tuition to attract relatively able students. Epple and Romano [American Economic Review 88(1) (1998) 33] develop a general equilibrium model characterizing equilibrium pricing and student selection into schools when peer effects are present. The model predicts that competition will lead private schools to give tuition discounts to more able students, and that this will give rise to an equilibrium exhibiting stratification by income and ability between the public and private sectors and to a hierarchy of schools within the private sector. The model also yields a variety of comparative-static predictions. The predictions of the model are tested in this paper using a unique data set assembled by Figlio and Stone [Research in Labor Economics (1999) 115]. Tests of equilibrium predictions of the model reveal that: The propensity to attend private school increases with both income and ability, and, among private schools, the propensity to attend the highest-tuition schools rises with both income and ability. Within private schools, tuition declines with student ability, with a substantial number of even high-income households paying little or no tuition. The correlation between income and ability is greater in public than private schools. Tests of comparative static predictions of the model reveal that: Both income and ability become stronger predictors of private school attendance as public school expenditure falls. Income becomes increasingly important in determining placement in the private school hierarchy as public school expenditure falls. Discounts to ability in the lowest-quality private school decline as public school expenditure rises while discounts to ability in the highest-quality private school are little affected by changes in public school expenditure. Expenditure in private schools rises as expenditure in public schools increases. These empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model.     

我国收入分配失衡对消费需求的影响分析

伴随着经济的发展,我国收入分配情况却呈现出失衡的状态,收入差距正在扩大。收入分配情况直接影响一国的消费需求总量和结构,我国的消费需求内需不足,为利用内需拉动经济增长带来较大阻力。为此,今后应致力于消除由不合理因素造成的收入差距过大的问题,继续深化产业结构调整,充分发挥市场的调节作用,发挥政府在收入再分配中的重要作用,提高整个社会的福利水平。     

Structural change,savings and current account balance

Private savings have experienced remarkable divergences across countries in recent years. In this paper we use a new factor, economic structural changes, to explain the differences of private savings in developing countries and its impacts on current account balance. We point out that growth related structural changes can be decomposed into productivity changes and job reallocations, which will affect private savings differently through wage effect and labor reallocation effect. Wage variation resulting from productivity growth will increase private savings, while labor reallocation moving from low income to high income sectors will reduce savings. Using sector level data, we find strong empirical evidence that structural change patterns have a significant impact on private savings and current account balance. This result provides another way to understand the recent “savings glut” in East Asian countries and also has some implications for the large current account imbalance issue.     

我国劳动收入比重偏低的成因分析——基于劳动力市场的视角

近年来我国劳动收入在初次分配中的比重呈下降趋势。劳动收入比重偏低会对收入分配公平、消费投资平衡和经济增长质量产生负面影响。文章基于劳动力市场的视角对我国劳动收入比重偏低的成因进行了理论研究,并采用我国2000-2011年省级面板数据,构建了一个劳动收入比重决定模型,实证检验了经济发展过程中,二元经济转型和劳动力市场分割对我国劳动收入比重变化的影响。研究结果表明,我国劳动收入比重偏低是二元经济转型的特定发展阶段和劳动力市场分割的制约力量协同作用的结果。在二元经济转型过程中,劳动收入比重的变化趋势呈U型规律。我国劳动收入比重偏低的原因在于,劳动力市场城乡分割和劳动力市场行政垄断行业分割延缓了二元经济转型进程,增加了劳动收入比重在下降阶段的停留时间。因此,稳定我国劳动收入比重的关键是削弱劳动力市场分割,加快二元经济转型。