基于典型城市商品住宅价格过快上涨的动力因素及对策研究

在对近年典型城市商品住宅价格上涨特征分析的基础上,发现导致商品住宅价格过快上涨的动力因素及其对商品住宅价格的推动作用。基于动力因素的分析和作用机理,提出如何控制城市商品住宅价格过快上涨的相应对策,为住房政策制定提供依据,并为商品住宅开发、商业银行贷款和居民购买和投资住宅行为等提供参考。     

基于典型城市商品住宅价格过快上涨的动力因素及对策研究

在对近年典型城市商品住宅价格上涨特征分析的基础上,发现导致商品住宅价格过快上涨的动力因素及其对商品住宅价格的推动作用.基于动力因素的分析和作用机理,提出如何控制城市商品住宅价格过快上涨的相应对策,为住房政策制定提供依据,并为商品住宅开发、商业银行贷款和居民购买和投资住宅行为等提供参考.     

南沙自贸区周边商品住宅价格空间格局研究

自由贸易区的设立会对周边商品住宅价格产生较大的影响。研究利用GIS空间分析方法,对广东省自由贸易试验区南沙新区片区周边普通商品住宅价格空间及其影响因素进行研究。搜集南沙新区城市范围内2015年在售的65个普通商品住宅项目挂牌均价数据,运用探索性空间数据分析方法对样本点进行正态性分布和空间自相关分析,并利用Kriging插值方法对南沙自贸区周边商品住宅价格空间进行分析计算,结果表明：（1）南沙自贸区周边商品住宅价格空间整体上呈现“北低南高”的趋势;（2）商品住宅价格空间分布区域特征明显,住宅价格高值区与自贸区块分布具有一致性。南沙自贸区周边商品住宅价格空间分布的主要影响因素有：自然环境、城市发展战略、交通基础设施、产业发展及自贸区的设立等。     

基于灰色系统的浙江主要城市商品房价格相关因素分析

住宅市场的变化关系到广大消费者的切身利益,也是社会关注的热点问题。本文从市场入手,寻求影响商品住宅价格各因素之间的相关关系,运用灰色系统理论对其进行了初步量化,通过商品房价格的灰色关联分析,确定了影响浙江主要城市商品房价格变动的主要因素依次为市场需求、成本和宏观经济环境。     

天津市商品住宅价格变动实证分析

文章利用天津市1995--2006年间的数据建立了天津商品住宅价格变动趋势及其影响因素的计量模型并进行了实证分析,结果表明天津市商品住宅的价格以较快的速度上升,没有明显的周期性。影响住宅实际价格的因素主要是可支配收入和利率;其中,可支配收入对住宅价格的影响作用非常显著。     

公共投资对商品住宅价格的影响效应研究——基于中国35个大中城市截面数据的分析

研究政府公共投资对商品住宅价格的影响效应,是以特征价格模型为基础来构建二者之间关系模型的,用2010年全国35个大中城市的截面数据进行计量分析,具体考察公共投资各个资本变量对住宅房价的不同影响效应。计量结果显示:公共投资各个资本变量对商品住宅价格有显著的影响并且不同公共投资特征变量对住宅价格的影响力度不同,公共投资对商品住宅价格具有资本化效应。政府应制定合理的公共政策和房地产政策,使这部分被资本化入商品住宅中的价值得到合理分配并起到对房价的调控作用。     

基于灰色理论的商品房住宅价格研究

文章运用灰色系统理论对商品房住宅价格进行分析与研究,采用两个数学模型灰色关联分析及灰色预测模型对商品住宅价格进行实证研究,运用灰色理论对商品住宅价格影响因素进行了定量分析和价格精确预测。将灰色系统理论引入房地产领域的深入研究提供了借鉴和参考价值。     

镇江市商品房住宅价格影响因素分析

住宅市场与镇江市的经济发展,人们生活水平提高息息相关。商品住宅价格是住宅市场的核心,研究住宅市场的变化情况,预测市场价格变化的趋势是非常有意义的。在分析与住宅价格密切相关的几个影响因素的基础上,对镇江市商品住宅价格进行了探讨。     

试论城市绿地系统对商品住宅价格的提升作用

在可持续发展战略思想的影响下,人们越来越注重环境的优劣,住宅的发展思路也体现为“环境、空间、文化、效益”综合理念。城市绿地系统包含生态、娱乐、文化、美学等多重功能。作为一个完全开放的系统,城市绿地系统具有独特的外部效益。其外部效益是商品住宅价格提升的主要根源之一,消费者剩余是绿地系统对商品住宅价格提升作用的度量衡。本文以北京市西北部万柳地区为例,对其商品住宅价格所受绿地系统之作用进行了解析。     

西安市商品住宅价格影响因素分析

随着经济的快速发展,商品住宅价格持续走高,使绝大多数以工薪基层为代表的买房者难以承受.这不仅仅关系到企业的投资热情和居民的安居乐业,还会影响产业的发展和社会的稳定,是以商品住宅价格及其影响因素变为人们广泛关心的问题.西安市作为陕西省的省会,西部地区的中心城市,其商品住宅市场的发展具有特殊性和代表性.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.