对建立我国巨灾保险制度的思考

本文首先分析了我国面临的严峻的巨灾风险,在此基础上指出我国巨灾保险制度建设的问题,最后给出相应的建议。     

基于尖点突变理论的知识型员工组织承诺建立—破坏的动力学分析

利用尖点突变理论来解释知识型员工组织承诺演化的动力学机制及其特征,把组织承诺作为状态变量,把能有效预测组织承诺的工作满意度和组织支持作为控制变量,针对武汉IT企业调研数据,利用cuspfit软件定量地拟合出了尖点突变模型。通过分析发现,工作满意度作为正则因子、组织支持作为分歧因子,共同影响组织承诺的突变机制:①组织承诺由建立到破坏的突变是源于工作满意度和组织支持变量穿过分歧集合时产生的自组织相变;②承诺一旦被破坏就很难重新建立起来,是源于这种突变机制的滞后效应;③当工作满意度和组织支持取值在分歧集合内部时,组织承诺演化均衡态的选择(建立或者破坏)取决于员工承诺的初始水平。     

可持续发展能力空间结构研究的理论问题探讨

“可持续发展”与“可持续发展能力”的差异是我们经常忽略的。但一旦说到“能力”,由于可持续发展在人们心目中是一个极其复杂的系统,所以就要把经济、社会和生态与环境三个系统的能力都包括进去,于是就有了虽然可以避免偏颇但却日显庞大的用于测度的指标体系。文章认为,从哲学上看,地理环境如果离开人类的发展就没有其存在和对其进行研究的意义,经济系统的能力在三个系统中是最基本的,而经济系统的能力可以被看作为了实现可持续发展所要求的“支付能力”。根据环境经济学的原理,这个支付能力只能是政府提供“公共物品”的能力,文章进一步认为,政府的财政能力又是最基本的。在明确这个基本原理后,就可以使测度变得更容易,一是克服一个大的指标体系中本来不相关的指标的叠加,二是使其简便,三是使政策成为必然——哪些地方缺少能力和哪些地方能力相对剩余和政府应该怎样去配置能力。这就是能力的空间结构和促进空间关系发展的区域政策。     

Significance of environment in the assessment of sustainable development: The case for south west Victoria

The assessment of sustainable development is often based on the three pillars of sustainability model using social, economic and environmental indicators. It is thought that by measuring the performance of each system, information can be gained about the sustainability of the whole system. However it seems there has been no attempt to evaluate if such an assumption is true. During the development of a sustainability assessment framework for south west Victoria, Australia, it has become evident that this approach to sustainability assessment does not provide an accurate assessment of system sustainability. The project found that environmental indicators were considered the most important for assessing regional sustainability. As a consequence, the assessment produced shows that in south west Victoria, sustainability is largely determined by the condition of the environment. This finding highlights the current disconnection between the theory and reality of sustainability. Here, we describe a framework for sustainability assessment that attempts to re-connect theory to practice.     

东莞市环境经济系统的能值分析

以能值理论与方法为基础,采用不同的能值指标和系统可持续性的综合性指标对东莞市的环境及经济发展状况进行分析,并与其他国家和地区相应指标进行比较,评价东莞市城市生态系统自然环境和社会经济可持续发展的状况。结果表明,东莞市全年利用总能值比较丰富,但经济发展程度与发达国家和地区相比还有一定差距,经济发展主要依赖外界的支持;东莞市自身环境资源相对匮乏,环境压力较大,远远超过了系统的环境承载力,东莞市可持续发展水平较低。结合东莞市实际,从能值分析角度提出其实施可持续发展的对策建议。     

可持续发展理论在区域旅游发展中的应用——以广东顺德市为例

阐述了可持续发展理论与区域旅游发展关系,以广东省顺德市旅游业发展为例来论述区域旅游业的可持续发展。首先摸清区域旅游资源、旅游业发展存在的问题,并以此为切入点,提出抓住区域的特色旅游资源来做文章。以特色旅游产品开发为基础;以区域旅游合作为依托;以区域旅游市场为导向;加快城市发展为条件;提高区域环境质量为保障来发展可持续的旅游业,并提出相应的对策措施,为研究区域旅游可持续发展提供借鉴。     

Quantifying economic sustainability: Implications for free-enterprise theory, policy and practice

In a previous paper (Ulanowicz, Goerner, Lietaer, and Gomez, 2009), we combined thermodynamic, network, and information theoretic measures with research on real-life ecosystems to create a generalized, quantitative measure of sustainability for any complex, matter/energy flow system. The current paper explores how this metric and its related concepts can be used to provide a new narrative for long-term economic health and sustainability. Based on a system's ability to maintain a crucial balance between two equally essential, but complementary factors, resilience and efficiency, this generic explanation of the network structure needed to maintain long-term robustness provides the missing theoretical explanation for what constitutes healthy development and the mathematical means to differentiate it quantitatively from mere growth. Matching long-standing observations of sustainable vitality in natural ecosystems and living organisms, the result is a much clearer, more accurate understanding of the conditions needed for free-enterprise networks to produce the kind of sustainable vitality everyone desires, one which enhances and reliably maintains the health and well-being of all levels of global civilization as well as the planet.     

Well-being and/or quality of life in EU countries through a multidimensional index of sustainability

The aim of my paper is to demonstrate that Sen's theory of well-being can be applied to make the concept of sustainable human development operational through the building of a multidimensional index of sustainability which takes into account, at the same time, economic, social and environmental variables. This index may be considered an alternative to the current measures of welfare/sustainability since not only conventional measures such as GDP, but also multi-attribute indices, such as Human Development Index (HDI), Genuine Savings, Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) etc., are found to be inadequate to make the concept of sustainable development operational. Therefore, the limitations of these measures of welfare/sustainability justify the search for a new index of sustainability. This index will show, at the operational level, how Sen's theory of well-being can be useful to sustainable development. It was applied to EU countries using the standardised deviation methodology being the closest and most suitable methodology to be adopted for building multidimensional indices. The factor analysis methodology will also be used in my paper. Lastly, the comparison between Sen's trend of sustainability and GDP trend index number-which are both of them applied to Italy-will show how much the criticisms and the limitations directed towards the indicator of GDP are founded.     

以协同论指导京津冀协同创新

京津冀协同创新是党中央提出的区域发展的新战略思想。这一战略构想是有其科学基础的,最重要的就是系统论的分支协同论。根据协同论,京津冀区域协同创新首先要解决地域系统最不稳定的因素——严重缺水、重度污染、经常断流的海河问题。系统分析京津冀在海河流域协同创新的木桶短板——水资源短缺这一"令人揪心的问题",利用京津冀各方比较优势协调不同诉求,使地区水资源配置达到有序动平衡,共同修复海河水生态系统。     

农地可持续利用的能值方法探讨

应用Odum所建立的能值理论和方法,通过能值指标评价各类用地的土地利用效率并探讨不同农作物的农地效益,寻找农地可持续利用的途径,从而为土地使用的可持续规划提供方法上的参考依据。     

走向可持续的工业遗产景观保护—— 英国布莱纳文工业景观保护实践

对可持续发展理论、工业遗产保护可持续发展原则 进行了分析。从景观概况,运营、范围、目标、策略、经济和 评估可持续方面对英国布莱纳文工业景观保护实践的经验、教 训进行了剖析。在此基础上,结合中国的国情、国策和现实问 题,从工业遗产景观保护的理论、制度、层级、目标、模式和 主体等方面对我国可持续的工业遗产景观保护路径进行了思 考,提出了在我国建立面向可持续的,地区发展综合目标、整 体系统规划管理、多元伙伴机制耦合的工业遗产景观保护新格 局的建议。     

Incentivizing sustainable waste management

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the integration of economic and non-economic concepts of waste management and sustainability to achieve new insights to sustainable waste management. Since landfilling will continue to be a significant waste management method, our theory and practice of sustainable waste management should focus upon incentivizing the development of more sustainable landfills. The model sheds light on the design of efficient and fair landfill siting processes; how production inputs to bioreactor landfilling should be selected; and how management practices during the facility's operation phase can achieve greater economic, ecological and social sustainability.     

Development pattern of the industry form in mountains area： a case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir area

The mountainous areas （mountain, plateau and hilly area ） cover than 85% of total land territory of China.Nature and humanity in very mountainous ares has its own geographic characteristics.In the process of industrialization and urbanization in China, realizing the sustainable development of the mouniainous areas, optimizing man-land system, and adopting and continuously developing corresponding economic modes of the mountainous areas with multi-functions of economy, ecalogy, culture and society to chararacterize production content, mode of production. mode of operation is not only helpful to econonty, society and ecological value and is of great aesthetic value,but also solve the technological problems of the subject of starting undertaking to finally transform the regional resource advantage of the mountainous area into the advantage of capital and technology for economic development and to get rid of the contradiction between underdeveloped economy and abundant resources. This paper takes the Three Gorges Reservoir（TGR） area for example to show that it＇s of great practical and theoretical significance ,regional distribution,variety structure and quality structure.     

海(咸)水入侵区人地系统作用机制及调控分析--以山东省莱州湾沿岸地区为例

本文分析了海(咸)水入侵区人地关系相互作用的机制,提出了基于水资源可持续开发利用的人地关系的各种调控措施.     

我国上市公司可持续发展的计量模型与实证分析

随着我国对稳定发展资本市场的日益重视 ,如何客观评价上市公司自身的竞争优势、长期绩效和成长能力 ,从而科学认识其持续发展的内在规律已成为一个亟待研究和解决的重要问题。为此 ,本文构建出一个新颖的上市公司可持续发展计量模型 ,并首次运用屏面数据计量方法进行实证研究 ,通过使用数理统计工具 ,如Mahalanobis广义距离、计算机集约法和刀切法 ,深入剖析我国上市公司长期绩效的形成机制 ,发现动态累积效益模型能深刻揭示出各类可持续发展指标之间错综复杂的内在关系、真实体现上市公司可持续发展的本质特征并客观评价上市公司的综合素质。     

从自然资源经济学到可持续经济学

随着物质生活水平的快速提高,人类也面临着诸如森林退化、土地荒漠化、物种多样性丧失以及温室效应恶化等生存环境问题。可持续发展问题日益受到人们的关注,通过经济学的视角来研究可持续发展的可持续经济学得到了快速的发展。本文从经济学的角度界定了自然资源的概念,回顾了经济学对自然资源的研究历程,对自然资源经济学的起源、发展进行了评述;论证了自然资源经济学和可持续经济学的关系,指出在可持续发展问题研究中融合自然资源经济学和环境经济学的必然性,以自然资源经济学和环境经济学为重要元素的可持续经济学是可持续问题经济研究的高级阶段,文章进一步探讨了可持续经济学的分析框架、发展现状及存在的问题。     

可持续发展理念下基于BSC-模糊物元的企业绩效评价

按照可持续发展战略的要求,基于平衡计分卡的四维思想,对平衡计分卡的结构内容进行改进,构建了包括持续增长财务、相关利益反映、QHSE运营流程、持续创新能力4个维度的企业绩效评价指标体系,并形成物元模型的物元特征集合,应用模糊物元分析方法,构建了可持续发展理念下基于BSC-模糊物元的企业绩效评价模型。最后进行了实例应用分析。     

城市应急系统的经济性与可持续性研究

本文从城市应急系统建设的必要性和城市应急系统的地位两方面分析了城市应急系统建设的意义,并分别从保障城市安全、降低城市灾害经济损失和增强城市可持续发展能力三方面研究了城市应急系统对城市发展的影响.通过对城市应急系统的经济性与可持续性研究,说明建立完善的城市应急系统不仅可以及时有效地预防各种城市灾害,降低突发事故的损失,还可以带来长期的经济效益和社会效益.因此,政府对于城市应急系统的重视和投入,对于保障城市的安全以及推进城市可持续发展具有重要的战略意义.     

两种基于不同理论的绿色国民核算方法比较

本文主要介绍了两种基于不同理论的绿色国民核算方法--GREENSTAMP(GREEned National Statistical and Modelling Procedures)方法和GARP(Green Accounting Research Project)方法的发展和应用.GREENSTAMP方法是以可持续发展理论为基础的模型计量方法,目的在于发展一种理论上严密、实行上可行的衡量满足可持续环境标准的经济产出总量的方法.GARP方法是搜集能够用于估计绿色NNP或者能够用于解释标准国民账户(SNA)的卫星账户的信息的实证研究方法,目的在于给出一个经济活动净福利的准确计量值.通过比较发现,两种绿色国民核算方法均存在一定的优点和缺点.因此,本文提出了将以可持续发展为基础的方法和以福利为基础的方法相结合的两种潜在方法.     

沿海城市人地关系地域系统脆弱性研究——以大连市为例

脆弱性是全球环境变化研究的热点和前沿领域,是多个科学计划的重要研究内容。人地关系地域系统是海洋经济地理研究中一个重点内容,将区域可持续发展研究推向纵深。利用大连市1996—2007年综合发展水平数据,根据区域经济发展、资源环境消耗、社会发展的相互关系,采用三角图分析方法,通过敏感性、适应性、恢复性等进行指标筛选,构建沿海城市脆弱性指标体系,建立脆弱性评价模型,对大连市人地关系地域系统的脆弱性进行了初步探索,结果表明:①大连市人地关系地域系统脆弱性逐年降低,连续12年脆弱性类型均为ERS型;②从趋势上看,经济子系统的脆弱值逐渐降低;③社会子系统的脆弱值逐渐下降,并且降低速度较快;④资源环境子系统的脆弱值逐年增加,在2003—2007年间,占大连市人地关系地域系统的1/3以上,该子系统为目前影响大连市人地关系地域系统的主要系统。