区域创新平台资源交互路径与规则设计

区域创新平台具有整合创新资源,促进共性技术研发与产业结构升级的功能,其发展得到各区域政府部门的高度关注。在布局初步规范化后,平台管理的重点转向平台关系优化与资源有效交互。由于不同层面资源交互的特点与存在问题不同,所以在划分创新资源交互层次的基础上,对各层次资源交互路径、交互内容与交互规则开展了系列研究,为区域政府部门平台管理提供了有效的参考依据与决策支持。     

区域创新系统与区域主导产业协同机理研究

区域创新系统需要区域经济体的有效承接,才能充分发挥其作用,而区域主导产业代表了区域经济的发展方向,其发展也需要区域创新系统的创新支持,两者存在着天然的协同取向。从区域创新系统与区域主导产业的内涵出发,在对两者相关性及协同研究可行性分析的基础上,从协同表现形式、协同途径以及序参量模型3个方面对两者的协同机理作了分析,以求为两者的协同发展提供理论依据。     

区域创新平台管理框架设计

区域创新平台在经历初步发展后,进入规范化、科学化管理阶段。传统的平台管理研究一方面因缺乏有效依据,导致提出的建议可信度差;另一方面因缺乏对研究成果实践指导作用的分析,难以为平台管理提供有效支持。因此,在区域创新活动主体对创新平台提出服务需求的基础上,分析了平台发展的动因,并以此确定平台的基本功能;基于对平台功能与发展影响因素的分析,进一步从平台功能定位与战略调整、平台布局、协同模式与机制等方面,设计了区域创新平台管理框架,旨在为区域创新平台管理部门提供有效的决策支持。     

基于创新环节的区域创新平台功能设计与实现

区域创新平台是为满足区域创新需求服务的,所以为了提高区域创新平台功能设计的规范性与合理性,应当结合创新标准环节的创新资源需求设计平台功能体系。为此,在综合考虑创新环节与创新资源需求类别的基础上,构建了区域创新平台功能体系,提出满足服务功能的匹配平台与子平台类别以及平台功能实现的具体方式等,以有效提高平台服务质量与运行效率。     

协同创新科技管理体制机制设计

科技体制机制关系到协同创新主体参与协同创新的积极性,以及协同创新要素能否顺畅地进行集聚和合作,从而影响协同创新绩效。宁波创新资源基础薄弱,产业转型升级亟需依赖区域协同创新推动。在分析协同创新政府科技管理作用的基础上,提出协同创新科技体制机制框架设计,并从协同创新人才支撑、创新组织建设、科技服务平台支持、创新成果转化交易服务体系、知识产权保护等方面提出了相关对策与建议。     

协同创新、区域一体化与创新绩效

协同创新是区域协同发展的内在动力。运用2002-2014年京津冀、长三角、珠三角三大区域省际或各地市数据,应用复合系统协同度模型与数据包络法度量协同创新度和创新绩效,构建了协同创新对创新绩效影响的计量模型;应用空间计量技术对区域一体化与创新绩效的关系进行分析。结果表明,除珠三角外,长三角和京津冀协同创新活动对创新绩效无显著影响;区域一体化程度越高,区域内部创新绩效分布越均衡;“企业自身投入”与“政府资助”等内生要素是促进区域一体化和提升创新绩效的主要动力。因此,应促进区域内部生产要素自由、合理流动,实现创新资源有效溢出,提升区域发展内生动力,加深区域一体化程度,提高创新效率。     

协同创新视角下环渤海区域科技政策绩效优化研究

协同创新是环渤海区域科技创新、发展方式转换以及参与国际竞争的内在要求.从协同创新视角出发,运用DEA-Malamquist指数方法对环渤海区域科技政策绩效进行测算,并对绩效的收敛性进行计量分析.实证分析表明:环渤海区域科技政策绩效整体呈现下滑趋势,主要原因在于技术落后;另外,环渤海区域科技发展不平衡,北京是唯一科技政策绩效年均增长13.8％的地区;同时,环渤海区域科技发展差距在缩小,科技经济一体化趋势明显.基于实证分析提出环渤海区域科技政策协同创新的三点建议,包括科学规划、资源共享与政策支持,从而促进环渤海区域科技政策绩效的提升和优化,推进区域科技进步和经济社会的可持续发展.     

协同创新科技管理体制机制设计——以宁波为例

科技体制机制关系到协同创新主体参与协同创新的积极性,以及协同创新要素能否顺畅地进行集聚和合作,从而影响协同创新绩效。宁波创新资源基础薄弱,产业转型升级亟需依赖区域协同创新推动。在分析协同创新政府科技管理作用的基础上,提出协同创新科技体制机制框架设计,并从协同创新人才支撑、创新组织建设、科技服务平台支持、创新成果转化交易服务体系、知识产权保护等方面提出了相关对策与建议。     

基于资源调控理论的军民科技协同创新平台建设研究

建设军民科技协同创新平台是践行创新驱动发展战略、军民融合发展战略与科技强军战略的重要举措。平台的一项重要目标就是激发潜在协同创新主体间的协同意愿并提高预期协同效益,以此促进协同创新活动顺利开展。基于资源调控理论的军民科技协同创新平台利用自身搭建的大数据信息系统计算出最优资源配置方案,自主高效地为潜在协同创新主体提供最佳配置资源的各项参考指标,以此为依据调整与控制协同创新主体所拥有的各项资源。建设基于资源调控理论的军民科技协同创新平台能够有效提高平台工作效率、优化资源配置,激发潜在协同创新主体间的合作意愿,提高协同合作成功率。     

风险投资视角下中部地区高新技术产业发展路径研究

高新技术产业是区域经济发展的增长极,而风险投资是驱动高新技术产业腾飞的助推器。逐步完善风险投资,支持高新技术产业发展,加速推进中部地区科技金融深度融合是实现调结构转方式的必然选择。基于中部地区科技投入及成果产出、风险投资与高新技术产业发展现状与存在的问题,从增强政策扶持力度、完善多层次资本市场、建立创新官产学研平台及协同机制、促进人才引进集聚以及培育创新创业文化环境等方面提出了解决思路,以期提高中部地区风险投资发展水平,促进中部高新技术产业发展。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.