制度距离对中国上市公司跨国并购绩效的影响

跨国并购是现阶段中国企业“走出去”的重要模式。随着中国企业跨国并购事件的迅速增长，从制度距离层面对跨国并购整合效果与并购绩效的研究成为热点。然而，不同学者对制度距离影响跨国并购绩效的实证研究却得出不同结论，其作用机制与效果仍待进一步探究。以中国上市公司成功实施的60起跨国并购案例为研究样本，以样本企业并购事件发生前后两年总资产收益率变化为因变量，通过剖析制度距离不同层面及并购母公司国际经验与知识吸收能力的中介作用，明确了制度距离不同维度影响跨国并购绩效的路径与机制。     

跨国并购的新发展及中国对策

文章对全球跨国并购的形势进行了分析，发现全球跨国并购规模持续扩大，周期性波动明显增强。服务业仍然是跨国并购的主导行业。中国跨国并购规模较小，呈现出持续增长的态势，尤其是在加入WTO以后，中国企业“走出去”进程明显加快。对外直接投资对中国企业跨国并购的推动作用明显。中国企业更多的是被国外企业并购，作为买方的对外跨国并购较少。在对全球和中国的并购形势进行分析的基础上，文章重点研究了中国企业跨国并购需要跨越的常规和非常规障碍，剖析了企业的市场身份认同问题、并购的动机和动力问题。对跨国并购有可能演变为某些官员和企业高层转移资产工具的可能性进行了提醒式分析。     

并购顾问团队与跨国并购交易时长：多多益善或适可而止

跨国并购不仅局限于目标方和并购方双方的博弈，并购顾问是交易中重要的第三方，然而现有研究对跨国并购中专业顾问团队的关注较少。以中国企业发起的跨国并购为分析对象，研究并购方顾问团队对跨国并购交易时长的影响，具有重要的意义。研究表明，并购方顾问团队规模越大，并购交易持续时间越长，且经过工具变量等一系列稳健性检验后结论依然成立。此外，当顾问团队东道国经验越丰富或目标方为上市企业时，上述效应减弱。当交易为循序并购或并购方高管团队海外背景丰富时，上述效应增强。以上研究结论补充了并购顾问作用的相关文献，丰富了现有文献对并购交易完成前过程的认识，同时表明跨国企业应当根据交易特征选取匹配的并购顾问团队以提高并购效率，为企业跨国并购实践提供了重要的理论参考。     

中国企业跨国并购交易成败的影响因素

越来越多的中国企业正通过跨国并购寻求扩张机会，但并非都能成功达成并购交易。本文通过对八个中国企业跨国并购案例的研究，总结出中国企业跨国并购交易成败的主要影响因素，并设计了的框架图，初步探讨了成功实现跨国并购交易的对策。研究表明，主要影响因素包括战略协同度、实力差距；行业特点、政府态度、法律规定、竞争对手；关键协议条款、谈判团队能力、信任程度以及中介机构的使用。     

交易费用视角下对华FDI的并购独资化分析

根据当前在中国的FDI跨国并购热潮以及外资的渐进式的控股独资化倾向,本文在交易费用理论的视角下,分别从企业内部的资产专用性、合资企业稳定性以及外部经营环境三个方面来解释中国目前的FDI并购独资化趋势,说明FDI并购独资化发展的外商角度的选择合理性与必然性。最后分析了该独资化趋势对我国宏观层面与微观主体所产生的影响,并提出政府与企业的应对与管理对策。     

企业跨国并购的融资方式分析——以TCL、联想、吉利跨国并购案为例

20世纪90年代以来,跨国并购浪潮已经席卷了世界资本市场的各个角落,越来越多的中国企业也开始使用跨国并购的方式进行对外投资。跨国并购的融资方式是并购交易的一个关键环节,也是并购最终能否取得成功的重要因素,企业采取何种融资方式会影响到并购完成后的财务状况和企业的正常运营。文章以TCL、联想、吉利跨国并购案为例,分析三者在融资方式选择上的不同,以对企业跨国并购融资方式进行深入研究,同时对我国企业跨国并购融资方式的现状进行了总结分析。     

中国企业跨国并购创新绩效影响因素及模式

通过收集2001-2014年浙江、广东两省上市公司跨国并购的数据，采用清晰集定性比较分析方法，对中国企业跨国并购创新绩效的影响机制进行了整合性分析，最终发现影响中国企业跨国并购创新绩效的5种主要驱动模式。此外，研究还表明，企业跨国并购创新绩效的提升路径不同，企业在跨国并购中应着重考虑外部因素，减少外部阻碍。     

跨国并购在中国:特点、模式与效应体现

随着我国企业国际化经营实践的深化,越来越多的中国企业开始把跨国并购作为对外直接投资、开拓国际市场的新策略。文章分析了跨国并购在我国的特点、模式,并对跨国资本并购国有企业的正负效应进行了分析。     

中国企业跨国并购的现状、法律风险与对策

近年来中国企业开始走出国门并进行了大量跨国并购。同时,中国企业的跨国并购面临法律、政治、财务、文化整合等风险。文章就中国企业跨国并购的现状、面临的法律风险进行了分析,并以美国为例分析了其对跨国并购的法律制度,最后有针对性地提出了对策。     

东南亚地区的跨国并购现状与影响

随着全球范围内的跨国并购活动不断发展,东南亚地区跨国并购的规模不断扩大,并呈现出了不同的特点。推动该地区跨国并购快速发展的原因有多方面,而各国的FDI体制自由化、区域经济一体化以及企业寻求的国际化是跨国并购能够不断扩大的重要原因。相对于FDI的新建形式,跨国并购的FDI对东道国经济的影响有所不同。     

中国企业跨境并购促进了并购企业研发国际化吗

基于2007—2020年中国工业企业上市公司跨境并购数据，实证分析跨境并购与并购企业研发国际化的关系，并整合制度观点，分析产权异质性和东道国（地区）异质性的影响。结果显示：第一，跨境并购规模和跨境并购股权对并购企业研发国际化均存在显著正向影响，跨境并购整合对并购企业研发国际化的影响不稳健；第二，基于产权异质性分组检验发现，跨境并购规模对并购企业研发国际化的正向影响仅在国有企业样本中显著；第三，基于东道国（地区）异质性分组检验发现，当东道国（地区）为发达国家（地区）时，跨境并购规模和跨境并购股权对并购企业研发国际化均存在显著正向影响，当东道国（地区）为发展中国家（地区）时，跨境并购对并购企业研发国际化的影响不显著。结论丰富了现有理论成果，对中国工业企业跨境并购实践具有一定借鉴价值。     

企业购并失败的元分析

本文运用内容分析法,在中国期刊全文数据库、中国博士学位论文数据库、中国重要会议论文集数据库三大数据库,按照论文的发表年份、理论基础与作者的学科背景、研究主题的界定方式、研究论题的侧重与分类及研究方法的运用五个维度进行检索,对国内学术界关于"购并失败"问题进行研究的发展进程和现状进行了系统的元分析,梳理了近年来我国购并后整合绩效研究的基本脉络。     

新兴市场企业跨国并购促进技术创新了吗——基于PSM-DID的实证研究

跨国并购是新兴市场企业实现创新能力追赶的重要途径。采用2010-2016年中国制造业上市公司跨国并购数据,运用PSM DID方法实证研究了跨国并购的创新效应,检验了企业异质性和东道国制度环境的调节作用。结果表明：跨国并购对企业技术创新绩效具有显著促进作用。企业异质性的检验结果显示,非国有企业跨国并购创新效应强于国有企业;企业吸收能力越强,从跨国并购中获取的创新收益越大。进一步研究发现,东道国制度质量对跨国并购与创新绩效的关系具有正向调节作用。研究结论丰富了跨国并购与技术创新相关理论,对于中国企业跨国并购实践具有重要启发意义。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.