国外区域创新体系研究新进展与启示

自从区域创新体系理论提出以来,区域创新体系战略已经成为世界普遍认同的重要区域发展工具,在各国贯彻实施。而区域创新体系理论在实践推动下日益扩展和完善,并对经济发展发挥了重要指导作用。该文通过对近5年来的国外区域创新体系研究文献的梳理和概括,总结了其对区域创新体系建设的启示。     

新时代十年 中国高质量发展之路——历程回顾、成效评估与路径展望

本文聚焦新时代十年这一具有里程碑意义的历史阶段，总结回顾中国高质量发展的实践历程，评估中国高质量发展取得的重大成就，并展望新征程上深入推动高质量发展的可行路径。新时代十年，中国以提高发展质量和效益主动适应新常态，以高质量发展为主题推动经济社会发展，将高质量发展作为全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务。十年间，科技创新驱动经济社会发展作用显著增强，区域和城乡发展差距不断缩小，绿色低碳发展步履坚实，对外开放实现规模质量双提升，共同富裕取得实质性进展。在全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程上，中国要发挥新型举国体制优势强化科技创新和技术攻关、推动实体经济数字化转型、统筹区域战略体系、全面推动绿色发展、提高人才队伍质量。     

产业集群可持续发展与区域创新政策体系

国内外经济发展实践表明；产业集群已成为推动区域经济发展的一支重要力量。我国产业集群在促进区域经济增长、增强区域经济竞争力、转变区域经济增长方式、推进区域城市化发展的同时。由于体制、机制和政策不配套等原因，还面临着一系列的问题，着力构建区域创新政策体系，营造产业集群内外部创新环境和氛围，是一些地方产业集群走出困境、科学发展的必然选择。     

广东省区域创新系统中的产学研模式研究

区域创新体系的建设极大推动了地区经济的快速发展,许多国家和地区都在努力实践,有效借鉴成功经验,结合实际情况,实现区域创新系统的效益最大化。旨在深入分析广东在区域创新道路中实践,分析其作用途径和特点,为其他地区的区域创新系统建设提供可资借鉴的经验和启示。     

全球化与新技术经济范式下区域产业创新路径探究

就目前而言，区域产业创新以网络的互动性以及开放性作为其核心，对于提升国际、区域竞争力，加快区域经济的一体化进程具有重要的推动作用。本文主要分析了全球化与新技术经济范式下区域产业创新的基本理念，及区域产业创新基础之下的发展路径，并在此基础上提出了全l耕匕与新技术经济范式下区域产业创新途径的发展策略，以期能为业内外相关人士带来参考建议。     

长三角一体化区域扩容对城市创新质量的影响与机制

经济转向高质量发展阶段，推动城市创新质量提升具有更强迫切性。利用1990-2017年长三角城市尺度数据，以城市群渐次扩容为基础，构建双重差分模型，多角度评估一体化区域扩容对城市创新质量的影响与驱动机制。研究发现：一体化区域扩容显著抑制了城市创新质量提升，且一体化区域扩容对不同类型、不同时期、不同批次及不同区域城市的创新质量影响均存在明显差异，印证了融入一体化实现创新质量提升中政策制定、实施因地制宜的重要性。一体化区域扩容通过市场规模效应、要素竞争效应、策略创新效应等影响城市创新质量，且市场化程度、经济发展水平提升弱化了一体化区域扩容的创新质量负效应。因此，在以城市群一体化区域扩容推动高质量发展的同时，也应加强关注城市群一体化可能的负面效应。     

区域创新共同体治理的逻辑框架、行动实践与政策启示

当前,全球主要国家和地区逐渐迈入跨域联动、共享资源、产业协同发展的区域创新共同体建设阶段,我国也开始了区域创新共同体治理的政策制定和实践探索。本文首先对区域创新共同体治理进行了理论探讨,阐释了区域创新共同体的重要内涵;其次,对区域创新共同体治理未来重点发展方向进行了深入分析,探索研究了其逻辑框架体系。在此基础上,本文通过对国内外行动实践进行对比研究,对美国、欧盟、日本等国家和地区的区域创新共同体治理的行动实践进行剖析,对我国长三角、京津冀、粤港澳、成渝四大城市群的区域创新共同体治理行动实践进行分析,科学研判了我国区域创新共同体治理实践的不足与差距,绘制了我国典型区域创新共同体治理要素矩阵。结果表明,着力提升原始创新能力强化区域战略科技力量支撑、优化创新创造生态环境促进创新资源要素自由流通、推进创新链产业链深度融合构建高质量产业协同生态圈,是我国区域创新共同体治理的重要发展路径。     

风险投资与区域创新：机制、路径与异质性——基于中国29个省的实证分析

知识经济背景下，创新成为推动区域发展的核心要素。风险投资是影响区域创新的重要因素，但风投对区域创新的作用还存在争议。文章基于2011—2019年中国省域数据，通过分位数回归、中介效应和调节效应实证分析了风险投资对区域创新影响的异质性、作用机制与传导路径，并采用空间计量模型，测度风险投资对区域创新的空间溢出效应。研究表明：(1)绝大多数省份风险投资与创新产出呈现显著“U型”曲线关系，但地区间差别明显。(2)产学研合作具有部分中介效应，风险投资可以通过提升产学研合作强度来间接推动区域创新发展。(3)吸收能力和知识产权保护对“U型”关系具有调节效应。(4)省际创新产出存在显著的空间集聚现象，风险投资对区域创新的直接效应、间接效应和总效应均表现为“U型”关系，且省份内效应显著强于省份间效应。     

区域文化研究范式的拓展——兼评《荆楚文化圈发展与建设研究》

作为一种较大的文化组织形态,文化圈内部的文化产业结构对其文化建设行为产生显著的影响,进而影响到文化圈建设的功能与绩效.《荆楚文化圈发展与建设研究》提出了“结构—行为—功能”的研究框架,运用产业组织的研究范式,剖析了荆楚文化圈的区域结构、文化层和文化丛等深层结构,进一步思考了这些结构性因素对荆楚区域文化产业建设的推动作用,并反思了文化产业结构和文化建设行为对文化功能的影响.而借鉴产业组织理论拓展区域文化的研究范式,在一定程度上将推动区域文化产业的理论与实践创新.     

区域自主创新联盟与区域创新资源整合管理研究

区域自主创新能力能否提升正日益成为地区经济能否获取竞争优势的决定性因素。对区域自主创新联盟进行了研究,并对基于自主创新联盟的区域创新资源整合目标、整合模式和整合策略进行了探讨。推动区域自主创新联盟发展,加速区域创新资源整合,必将促进区域自主创新能力的不断提升。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.