加拿大应对气候变化下的防灾减灾战略

随着气候变化的加剧,极端天气越来越多,越来越激烈,与气象相关的灾难越来越多。不少国家已经或开始制定应对气候变化下的防灾减灾战略。有专家认为,加拿大的应急反应和灾后恢复是世界上做得最好的。本文试图从立法、防灾减灾国家战略、应急准备计划、政府职能、应急管理、国家灾害管理系统、气候变化及防灾减灾研究、基础设施应对气候变化下的标准与规范、灾害风险与薄弱环节评估、突发事件应急反应的气象预警、应急管理教育与培训、全国性防灾减灾网络等多个方面,深入研究分析加拿大应对气候变化下的防灾减灾战略,供大家参考。     

加拿大自然灾害管理机制与启示

加拿大联邦、省/地区和市三级政府制定了一系列应对自然灾害的政策和计划,形成了一套较为高效和系统的自然灾害管理机制和措施.我国可借鉴和吸取国外先进的管理经验和技术,加快立法,加强预防和减灾工作,鼓励研发合作,建立系统的管理机制,不断提高抗灾救灾能力.     

城市灾后重建工程的研究

随着当今世界各国自然灾害的严重增多,防灾减灾已成为各国关注的重大问题之一,灾后重建也属于防灾减灾工程的一种,特别是2008年发生的震惊世界的汶川地震,更是石旭铎国家和地区得到警醒.本文主要对城市防灾减灾工程进行了分类,分析了城市防灾减灾工程的重要性,分析了国内外城市防灾减灾工程的研究现状.     

构建福建防灾减灾 长效机制的实践与对策

防灾减灾是涉及人民安全、社会繁荣、经济可持续发展的迫切的现实问题。笔者在近年来深入调研福建自然灾害发生情况的基础上,对福建防灾减灾的探索与实践进行认真思考,提出科学把握防灾减灾规律、扎实推进福建防灾减灾的对策建议。     

探析中国地方政府防灾减灾体系的构建

随着洪涝干旱、台风地震、滑坡泥石流、极端反常性气候等自然灾害的频发,自然灾害发生的范围在不断扩大,破坏程度也在不断上升,严重影响了中国经济社会的正常发展。基于此,中国各级政府就要适时构建科学的防灾减灾体系,而相较于中央政府而言,地方政府更直接地面对着灾害的考验。地方政府构建防灾减灾体系对经济社会发展具有重要意义,在地方政府在防灾减灾体系构建过程中,应该注意一些基本事项。     

中国确定每年5月12日为“防灾减灾日”

国家减灾委、民政部3月2日发布消息,经国务院批准,自2009年起,每年5月12日为全国“防灾减灾日”。国家减灾委办公室有关负责人表示,“防灾减灾日”的设立,有利于唤起社会各界对防灾减灾工作的高度关注,有利于全社会防灾减灾意识的普遍增强,有利于推动全民防灾减灾知识和避灾自救技能的普及推广,有利于各级综合减灾能力的普遍提高,最大限度地减轻自然灾害的损失。国家减灾委要求首个国家“防灾减灾日”紧密结合当地防灾减灾实际情况,针对不同宣传教育对象,采取灵活多样的形式,在今年4月底至5月中旬,     

湖北农业与农村经济可持续发展的自然灾害防御对策研究

本文认为频繁的自然灾害是人类经济社会和未来发展所面临的最大威胁， 是实施可持续发展战略的严重障碍。文章分析了自然灾害是湖北农业与农村经济可持续发展的重要制约因素， 指出了减灾防灾应作为湖北农业与农村经济可持续发展的战略重点， 在此基础上， 着重探讨了湖北农业与农村经济可持续发展的自然灾害减防对策。     

努力做好减灾救灾工作

第42届联大第169号决议宣告:本世纪最后10年,为"国际减轻自然灾害十年"。其目标是到2000年,每个国家都做到在其发展规划中列入防灾内容,使在下一个世纪中因自然灾害导致人的生命损失减少50%,经济损失减少10%-40%。我国政府响应联大号召,成立了"中国国际减灾十年委员会",积极开展减灾工作。吉林省在实现全国"国际减灾十年目标"中,加大综合防灾、减灾工作力度,在抓好减灾、救灾工作,促进全省经济发展和社会稳定方面,取得了初步成效。为了进一步动员全社会力量搞好防灾、救灾工作,今年6月20日,省里在桦甸市召开了"全省减灾、救灾工作会议"。这次会议认     

日本重大气候灾害的影响及其对策与技术措施研究

本文介绍了重大气候灾害对日本经济社会的影响,日本通过建立和完善各种应对措施,提高全社会的防灾减灾能力,积极利用遥感遥测技术,提高灾害气候的监测预警水平,积极开展长期气候研究,努力把握气候变化规律等有力措施,力求最大限度减少灾害损失.日本依靠科学技术提高灾害气候的监测预报水平,对我国防灾减灾提供了有益的启示.     

突发事件中的档案安全保护

突发事件具有突发性和不可抗拒性,它危及档案安全和档案的正常工作秩序。近年来,全球突发性社会事件和自然灾害频频发生,给档案的安全带来了严重的威胁。如何强化档案人员风险防范意识,提高档案部门应对灾难的能力,以保障档案的安全成为当前档案工作亟待解决的问题。文章从提高思想认识、建立和落实档案安全制度、档案信息化建设三个方面入手,提出了在突发事件中档案安全保护的相关措施。     

法国气象预警机制及其启示

本文主要分析介绍了法国气象预警机制的如下情况：气象预警的目的、方式、对象、合作伙伴、成功事例及我们的体会与建议。事实证明,面对全球气候异常多端的变化所带来的严峻挑战,法国广泛普及灾害天气知识,建立先进的灾害预警机制和减灾机制,并加强灾难风险研究与评估等卓效措施,充分显示出做好这些工作的必要性、重要性及有效性,值得我国借鉴和学习。     

地方政府处在应对气候变化的最前线——澳大利亚《地方政府气候变化适应行动》述评

近年来,气候变化成为与人类社会发展和生存密切相关的全球性热点。澳大利亚受到气候变化的严重影响。然而,长期以来,澳大利亚政府在应对气候变化方面一直落后于整体发达国家。自2006年开始,以《地方政府气候变化适应行动》的出台为标志,澳大利亚政府的态度发生了积极的变化。文章对澳大利亚应对气候变化影响的相关背景和举措以及澳大利亚环境和水资源部出台的《地方政府气候变化适应行动》报告进行了介绍和评述,并结合该报告观点及我国实际情况提出了相应的启示和建议。     

美国国家公园应对气候变化的经验及其对中国国家公园建设的启示

2017年随着《建设国家公园体制总体方案》的出台，中国的国家公园建设逐渐步入正轨。然而我国人口众多，幅员辽阔，气候条件复杂且生态环境脆弱，正在建立的国家公园极易受到气候变化所带来的不利影响，且我国关于国家公园应对气候变化的研究较少。美国的国家公园体制较为完善，在应对气候变化方面已有较为深入的探索。通过文献调研和比较分析法，以佛罗里达州大沼泽地国家公园和亚利桑那州大峡谷国家公园为例，分析其应对气候变化的方法与经验，并从气候监测、国家公园管理、适应性规划以及环境教育等方面对我国国家公园应对气候变化提出建议，使正在建设中的中国特色国家公园体制稳步推进。     

低碳农业发展核心目标:减缓和适应气候变化

减缓和适应是人类应对气候变化行动中两种相辅相成的措施。中国农业在应对气候变化中,减缓和适应同等重要:一方面,农业在减缓气候变化中具有独特的作用;另一方面,农业适应气候变化比减缓气候变化更为现实的迫切。积极发展低碳现代农业实现减排增汇,中国农业生态系统可以作为一种非常重要的固碳增汇措施,纳入全球CO2减排措施中去。中国低碳农业在减缓和适应气候变化中具有巨大潜力。     

Sustainable financing for climate and disaster resilience in Atoll Islands: Evidence from Tuvalu and Kiribati

This paper examines the financing of disaster risk management. Future climate and disaster risks are predicted to impose increasing financial pressure on the governments of low‐lying atoll nations. The aftermath of a disaster, such as a cyclone, requires financial means for quick response and recovery. We quantify the appropriate levels of financial support for expected disasters in Tuvalu and Kiribati by building on the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI)‐calculated likely costs for disasters. To these, we add estimates of the potential effects of distant cyclones, droughts, sea‐level rise, climate change and large‐scale disaster shocks as they are predicted to affect low‐lying atoll islands. The present paper focuses on the potential contribution of the sovereign wealth funds (SWF) of Tuvalu and Kiribati in reducing reliance on foreign aid for ex‐post disaster risk management. We forecast the future size of SWF using Monte Carlo simulations. We examine the long‐term sustainability of SWF and the feasibility of extending their mandate for disaster recovery.     

Willingness to Pay for Ancillary Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation

Assessing the Willingness to Pay (WTP) of the general public for climate change mitigation programmes enables governments to understand how much taxpayers are willing to support the implementation of such programs. This paper contributes to the literature on the WTP for climate change mitigation programmes by investigating, in addition to global benefits, the ancillary benefits of climate change mitigation. It does so by considering local and personal benefits arising from climate change policies. The Contingent Valuation Method is used to elicit the WTP for ancillary and global benefits of climate mitigation policies in the Basque Country, Spain. Results show that WTP estimates are 53–73% higher when ancillary benefits are considered.     

International climate regimes: Effects of delayed participation

This paper analyses how delayed participation by regions can affect international climate regimes in terms of the feasibility, costs, timing, magnitude and nature of the long-term mitigation response. We use the energy-systems optimization model MESSAGE to construct several climate change mitigation scenarios with various levels of regional participation in short-to-mid term. By comparing these with a global scenario that assumes full spatial and temporal flexibility throughout the century, we are able to evaluate how participatory decisions affect the mitigation response as well as the costs and technology choices. We find that short-term postponement of participation from some regions can often lead to a delay of mitigation measures on the global level. However, if the regional delay lasts until mid-century, participants of the regime are likely to increase their efforts in the short term. Mitigation costs are found to substantially increase as a result of delayed participation—the extent of the increase depends on the relative importance of the region that postpones its participation, the stringency of the climate target and the ability to reorganize mitigation measures. Our analysis also shows that a region's decision to delay its participation in an international climate regime can lead to accumulated inertia in its energy system and thus to a delayed ‘technological transition’ toward a low-carbon future.     

Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: Effects of mitigation, 1990–2080

Potential changes in global and regional agricultural water demand for irrigation were investigated within a new socio-economic scenario, A2r, developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) with and without climate change, with and without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Water deficits of crops were developed with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)–IIASA Agro-ecological Zone model, based on daily water balances at 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude and then aggregated to regions and the globe. Future regional and global irrigation water requirements were computed as a function of both projected irrigated land and climate change and simulations were performed from 1990 to 2080. Future trends for extents of irrigated land, irrigation water use, and withdrawals were computed, with specific attention given to the implications of climate change mitigation. Renewable water-resource availability was estimated under current and future climate conditions. Results suggest that mitigation of climate change may have significant positive effects compared with unmitigated climate change. Specifically, mitigation reduced the impacts of climate change on agricultural water requirements by about 40%, or 125–160 billion m³ (Gm³) compared with unmitigated climate. Simple estimates of future changes in irrigation efficiency and water costs suggest that by 2080 mitigation may translate into annual cost reductions of about 10 billion US$.     

Probabilistic temperature change projections and energy system implications of greenhouse gas emission scenarios

This paper explores the implications for global average temperature change of a set of reference and mitigation scenarios in a probabilistic framework. First, we use published probability density functions for climate sensitivity to investigate the likelihood of achieving targets expressed as levels or rates of global average temperature change. We find, for example, that limiting warming to 3 C above pre-industrial levels with at least a medium likelihood requires cumulative emissions reductions on the order of 30-60% below one unmitigated reference scenario by 2100, while a more favorable baseline scenario requires no reductions at all to achieve this outcome with the same likelihood. We further conclude that the rate of temperature change may prove to be more difficult to control, especially if most of the mitigation effort is postponed until later in the century. Rate of change targets of 0.1–0.2 °C/decade are unlikely to be achieved by a target for the long-term level of climate change alone. Second, we quantify relationships between mitigation costs and the likelihood of achieving various targets and show how this depends strongly on the reference scenario. Third, we explore relationships between medium-term achievements and long-term climate change outcomes. Our results suggest that atmospheric concentrations and the share of zero-carbon energy in the middle of the 21st century are key indicators of the likelihood of meeting long-term climate change goals cost-effectively. They also suggest that interim targets could be an effective means of keeping long-term target options open. Our analysis shows that least-cost mitigation strategies for reaching low climate change targets include a wide portfolio of reduction measures. In particular, fundamental long-term structural changes in the energy system in these scenarios are a necessary but not sufficient condition to achieve high likelihoods for low temperature targets. The cost-effective portfolio of emissions reductions must also address demand-side measures and include mitigation options in the industry, agriculture, and the forest sector.