山东省能源消费碳排放预测

基于《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》估算了17种能源的碳排放系数,测算了1995—2009年山东省的能源消费碳排放量。选取人口、城镇化率、人均GDP、工业GDP比例、能源消耗强度作为山东省碳排放的影响因素,分别应用偏最小二乘回归和岭回归构建了预测山东省能源消费碳排放的STIRPAT模型。通过对比基于两种回归所得模型的拟合效果,最终选择岭回归模型预测了2010—2015年山东省能源消费碳排放量。最后提出了山东省碳减排的相关对策。     

The Future of EU-Russia Energy Relations in the Context of Decarbonisation

In 2013, there was a joint commitment to “long term strategic EU-Russia energy cooperation”.¹1. EU/RF Roadmap, ‘Roadmap EU-Russia Energy Cooperation until 2050‘, European Commission and Russian Government, March 2013, p. 4, available at <https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/2013_03_eu_russia_roadmap_2050_signed.pdf>.View all notes Whilst centred on oil and gas, it is noted that “the importance of renewables for EU-Russia energy relations should grow too”,²2. Ibid., p. 21.View all notes and that for energy efficiency, “cooperation potential is immense and could… contribute to the objective of a Pan-European energy area”.³3. Ibid., p. 26.View all notes Given this shared objective, this article analyses EU and Russian energy decarbonisation policy objectives and considers the potential for a supplementary trade relationship based on renewable energy flows and decarbonisation-related technology, as well as the implications for existing energy trade. Despite declarative statements of mutual interest, shared objectives and cooperation in decarbonisation policy, there has been very limited cooperation by early 2016. The EU has set ambitious plans to decarbonise its economy and energy sector by 2050. However, in Russia energy policy is dominated by hydrocarbon exports, decarbonisation targets are modest, and there are major problems with their implementation. The drivers of EU and Russian energy policies are evaluated, and the argument advanced is that different understandings of energy security and types of energy governance provide major obstacles to decarbonisation cooperation and trade. However, it is argued that ideas about energy policy and security are contested and subject to change and there exists significant potential for mutual gain and cooperation in the longer term.     

能源消费、结构突变与中国经济增长:1952-2005

能源是现代经济增长的必要支撑,但是在理论上,能源与经济增长的关系并不明确.本文采用向量误差修正模型结合结构穿变分析,实证检验基于生产函数的能源消费与中国经济增长的关系.结果显示,"大跃进"的终结与大庆油田的量产,引发产业结构与能源结构的变迁,导致1961年能源消费也现结构突变.这使得1952-2005年能源消费与中国经济增长之间不存在长期均衡关系,但1962-2005年二者间具有协整关系.在短期能源消费内生于经济增长,长期中经济增长是能源消费变动的诱因.需要指也的是,如果忽略产业结构的影响,会低估能源消费在经济增长中的作用.     

意大利能源概况及可再生能源的开发和利用

意大利能源非常短缺,石油和天然气储量严重不足,煤矿已经关闭,核能禁止使用,电力仍需依靠进口。据意大利新技术能源与环境委员会（ENEA）最新统计,2007年意能源对外依存度为85．6％,远远超出欧盟的平均水平。本文详细介绍了意大利传统能源的生产、进口及消费情况,同时对意大利可再生能源的开发利用也做了详尽的分析。     

Energy Consumption for Space Heating: A Discrete–Continuous Approach

Energy demand for space heating is estimated using a discrete–continuous choice model which focuses on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and energy consumption. The model is estimated on Norwegian micro data, and the two stages of the model are estimated simultaneously. The capital cost and the operating cost of the heating systems are both found to have a significant impact on the choice of heating system. Furthermore, the results show that household characteristics are important variables in residential energy models. Energy price elasticities and income elasticities are also estimated.     

Is the Austrian business cycle theory still relevant?

We compile econometric evidence from the latest available time series data on US savings, consumption, interest rates, and gross domestic product (GDP) to test a reduced form model of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). We build indexes that mimic the gap between the market and natural rates of interest and, using this gap as a proxy for expansionary policy, uncover evidence that changes in reserves lead to changes in real GDP in the manner predicted by ABCT. In addition, we establish that the pattern of endogenous changes in output, from positive to negative, also conforms to the predictions of ABCT. Thus, by incorporating improvements with regard to data and methods over the few other examples of econometric work in this area, we provide more distinctive evidence on ABCT relative to competing theories of the business cycle than has been done previously.

Energy taxation in Southern Europe: The case of Portugal

We investigate whether or not the imposition of a common EC energy-tax will penalize more the poorer Southern European economies and if this will harm convergence at the EC level. We start by surveying briefly the existing studies and empirical evidence. Then we exploit the results obtained when using the macroeconometric HERMES models to simulate the introduction of an energy-tax. Unfortunately, as we only have HERMES results for one Southern European economy, Portugal, our conclusions are limited. Finally, we investigate convergence in Europe and the effects of energy taxation on convergence. We conclude that energy taxation will harm growth all over the EC, penalizing more one of the less developed countries, Portugal, and having most probably adverse effects on convergence.This paper was prepared for presentation at the Conference Energy Tax in Europe organized jointly by the SEO-University of Amsterdam and the DG XII of the CEC and held in Amsterdam on 13th December 1991. I would like to thank the participants in the Conference and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Of course, the usual disclaimer applies.     

能源供给、能源消费与经济增长的关系——基于1978—2008年山西省数据的实证分析

本文利用1978—2008年山西省的GDP、能源供给、能源消费的数据,对山西省经济增长和能源供求之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:山西省能源消费总量、能源供给总量均对GDP具有显著的单向Granger因果关系,山西省能源消费和能源供给一起构成了山西省经济增长的单向推动引擎;能源消费总量、能源生产总量与GDP之间存在长期协整关系。最后,提出了发展山西省能源经济及探索循环经济模式的政策建议。     

Trans‐Tasman Transmission of Government Spending Shocks

This paper investigates the international transmission of fiscal shocks between two closely‐linked, open economies. We estimate impulse response functions using a semi‐structural vector auto regressive (VAR) model and quarterly data from Australia and New Zealand for the period 1973:3–2008:4. We compare our empirical results with impulse response functions from a calibrated two‐country international real business cycle model with habit formation and adjustment costs to investment. We show that a positive shock to Australian government consumption leads to an increase in Australian output initially and then to a decline in the medium term, while the New Zealand output is negatively affected both in the short and medium term. This result is in line with the recent literature that reports beggar‐thy‐neighbour effect of positive government spending shocks.     

劳动收入份额、城乡收入差距与中国居民消费

本文建立了一个包含人力资本人口分组的新古典经济增长模型,从理论上分析了劳动收入份额、收入差距与总消费三者之间的关系,然后使用1990—2008年的省际面板数据,采用动态GMM估计方法,重点检验国民收入分配结构、城乡居民收入差距以及它们的交互作用对中国居民消费率的影响,揭示了中国消费率偏低的动态形成机制。研究发现,劳动收入份额和城乡收入差距是居民消费增长缓慢最根本的原因;城市化水平、消费习惯形成和人口年龄结构对居民消费率也有重要的潜在影响;提高劳动要素份额具有缩小城乡收入差距的效应。尽管使用了不同的识别方法与计量技术并控制了其他潜在影响居民消费率的各种因素,本文的结果依然基本稳健。     

An analysis of China's climate policy using the China-in-Global Energy Model

The primary approach to address climate change in China has been the use of CO₂ intensity targets coupled with targets for low carbon energy deployment. We evaluate the impact of extending similar targets through 2050 on China's energy use profile and CO₂ emissions trajectory using the China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM). The C-GEM is a global computable equilibrium model that includes energy and economic data provided by China's statistical agencies, calibration of savings, labor productivity, and capital productivity dynamics specific to China's stage of development, and regional aggregation that resolves China's major trading partners. We analyze the combined impact of extending CO₂ intensity targets, implemented via a cap-and-trade program, and low carbon energy policies (directives for nuclear power expansion and feed-in tariffs for wind, solar, and biomass energy) through 2050. Although with the policy, simulated CO₂ emissions are around 43% lower in 2050 relative to a reference (No Policy) counterfactual, China's CO₂ emissions still increase by over 60% between 2010 and 2050. Curbing the rise in China's CO₂ emissions will require fully implementing a CO₂ price, which will need to rise to levels higher than $25/ton in order to achieve China's stated goal of peaking CO₂ emissions by 2030.     

能源消费、煤炭消费与经济增长关系研究

能源是国家的战略性资源,煤炭是中国重要的能源之一,煤炭对我国经济发展起到了举足轻重的作用。研究能源消费、煤炭消费与经济增长的相互关系,对于发展经济具有重要的指导意义。运用我国GDP总量、能源消费总量和煤炭消费总量的数据,首先,得到我国煤炭消费收入弹性系数依然过高的结论;其次,建立协整与误差修正模型,并进行Granger因果关系检验,得出能源消费与经济增长、煤炭消费与经济增长之间长期是均衡的,能源消费与经济增长、煤炭消费与经济增长存在着协整与双向因果关系。最后,根据分析结论提出对策建议,即政府需要提供相关政策支持,建设国家煤炭储备体系,实施煤炭供应国际化战略,以保证能源供应安全,保证我国经济增长速度。     

Leading indicators of non-performing loans in Greece: the information content of macro-, micro- and bank-specific variables

We examine the information content of a unique set of macroeconomic, bank-specific, market and credit registry variables as regards their ability to forecast non-performing loans using a panel data set of nine Greek banks. We distinguish between business, consumer and mortgage loans and investigate their differences with respect to their optimal predictors. The quasi-AIM approach (Carson et al. in Int J Forecast 27:923–941, 2010) is utilized in order to take into account heterogeneity across banks and minimize estimation uncertainty. In addition, we calculate a number of forecasting measures in order to take into account the policy makers’ preferences. We find that market variables, specifically the supermarket sales, confidence indices for the services and construction sector and the business sentiment index represent good forecasting variables for most categories of NPLs. In addition, industrial production is the optimal predictor for consumer NPLs and imports for business NPLs. Finally, bank-specific variables represent top-performing leading indicators for business NPLs. Our results have significant implications for stress-testing credit risk in a top-down manner and for supervisory and macro-prudential policy design.     

碳税对经济增长、能源消费与收入分配的影响分析

本文利用1995—2005年我国GDP、能源消费和资源税样本数据,通过构建基于面板数据的计量模型,分析了征收碳税对我国28个省、直辖市和自治区的经济增长、能源消费与收入分配的影响。结果表明:征收碳税能够提高我国大部分地区的经济规模,同时对东部地区的能源消费具有抑制作用,但扩大了大部分地区资本所有者和劳动者的收入分配差距。这说明,现阶段我国应该分地区、分税率进行碳税征收,以使我国大部分地区在保持经济增长和体现社会公平的前提下实现节能减排的目标。     

The effect of uncertainty on UK investment authorisation: Homogenous vs. heterogeneous estimators

This paper compares pooled and non-pooled models of UK capital investment using the Confederation of British Industrys (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey, focusing on the impact of uncertainty. The uncertainty measure is based on the cross sectional dispersion of optimism about the future business conditions in the industry in which the firm operates. The panel data estimation shows that uncertainty has quantitatively important negative effects on investment. However, if we look at the estimation results at the industry level, we find a great diversity in both estimated elasticities and t-statistics, providing valuable information not available from the pooled model. Finally, we compare the forecast performances of the above models; this analysis confirms that pooled estimators are generally better than non-pooled estimators in terms of out-of-sample forecast performance, but the difference between the two is not very large.     

能源消费与经济增长的关联关系分析——基于山东省1980～2008年相关数据实证研究

能源消费与经济增长之间的关系一直是国内外关注的焦点,确定二者之间的因果关系方向具有重大的政策含义。在总结国内外研究成果的基础上,采用1980—2008年的相关统计数据,利用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验分析山东省能源消费与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示能源消费与经济增长具有长期趋势关系,且存在双向因果关系;通过对柯氏生产函数的扩展计量模型,采用广义最小二乘法进行估计,得出结论：山东省能源消费与经济增长呈正相关关系,经济增长对能源消耗的依赖程度较高。     

转型期内中国能源产业如何升级？基于面板数据的实证研究

在"双碳"目标下,中国能源产业升级不仅体现制度层面的要求,而且成为行为层面的必然.界定了"能源产业比较优势""能源产业优势演进"及"能源产业升级Motivation-Ability-Opportunity(MAO)",选取了2009—2019年的相关数据,从区域及全国两个层面构建计量经济模型;聚焦转型期内"产业升级的主要影响因素"和"产业升级路径选择的主要影响因素".研究表明:制度层面,中国能源产业虽有优势,但仍存在发展"惰性",应选择"渐进式"升级路径;组织层面,各区域能源产业仍普遍处于"升级未成功"或"保持比较优势"的非理想状态;产品层面,中国能源产业的能源替代-互补关系存在明显的区域差异,且化石能源产业未能达到发展预期.因此其仍需继续推进转型升级.     

An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain

The paper examines Granger-causality between the producers' and the consumers' price using Australian data within the frequency domain framework. For long run relation, the Johansen and Juselius (1990) maximum likelihood approach to cointegration was utilized. The test is also supplemented by the Breitung and Candelon (2006) and Lemmens et al. (2008) method. The quarterly data for the study covers 1969q3 to 2010q4. The findings suggest that consumers' price Granger-causes producers' price at an intermediate level of frequencies reflecting medium-run cycles, whereas producers' price does not Granger-cause consumers' price at any level of frequencies. Our study shows that consumers' price is a leading indicator of producers' price. Given that producers' price is used in making various macroeconomic indicators in real terms, the findings should help the Australian policymakers to gain control over the factors that affect consumers' price. The major contribution of the paper is to demonstrate unidirectional causality from consumers' price to the producers' price. Specifically, results show that consumers' price in Australian may have a significant predictive content in how the producers' price evolve. Furthermore, the application of the Breitung and Candelon (2006) and Lemmens et al. (2008) methodology in testing the Granger-causality in frequency domain is also relatively new.     

FDI与中国省际能源消费强度间关系的动态分析

建立了能源消费强度和FDI规模的面板VAR模型和面板计量模型,采用1995—2008年中国省际面板数据,对能源消费强度和FDI规模之间的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果显示:FDI规模对能源消费强度有显著的正向效应;FDI规模对能源消费强度的影响保持在4.3%左右;FDI规模和能源消费强度之间呈典型的倒U型关系,说明能源消费强度随着FDI规模的增加而呈先增加后降低的趋势。     

The Value of Energy Efficiency and the Role of Expected Heating Costs

The German Energy Performance of Buildings Directive requires sellers on the housing market to provide detailed information on expected yearly energy consumption per square meter (energy performance, EPS). This paper uses variation in local fuel prices and climate, fuel types, and building ages to analyse the relationship between expected energy cost savings from energy efficient building structure and house prices in a data set of listing prices from all regions of Germany. Results suggest that heating cost considerations are less relevant than previously thought.